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Sussex Stakes 2009

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  • #12151
    RedRiot
    Member
    • Total Posts 870

    Great renewal for me with a filly right out the top draw in Ghanaati, I have been really impressed by Ghanaati who’s 1000 Guineas win was hugely underrated with people focusing more on why Rainbow View flopped, but the Coronation put things right when she showed her class again. One point would be that she hasn’t raced on anyhthing but fast groundm, so it could be an unknown with the shaky weather, but she iss a proven horse and is an Ascot course record holder and the fastest ever Guineas winner, she looks outstanding and races like it too.

    Rip Van Winkle I thought was a load of hype, but I was very impressed with his Eclipse run and this should be a less difficult assignment, take STS out of the race and you had him beating Conduit by 4.5l and would also have set a superb time, he comes in with an oustanding chance if he takes well to the drop in trip which is what I would be worried about as I see Ghanaati as the best horse at 1m currently.

    Paco Boy, if he gets cut he may get caught for stamina if it comes an issue.

    Lord Shanakill is the only horse I could see posting a good performance but he is probably just not quite in the same bracket as the other three.

    Over 1m I think 9/4 is great value for Ghanaati.

    #240657
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Is Ghanaati really the fastest guineas winner ever? I assume you mean 100 guineas?

    #240681
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    I wasn’t overly impressed by Ghanaati at Ascot and can’t believe she’s as short as she is for thos. It’s debatable how well Paco Boy will see out the race if the pace is strong, so I’d rather take Rip Van Winkle after an improved effort in the Eclipse.

    #240682
    RedRiot
    Member
    • Total Posts 870

    (2000) Fastest winning time – Mister Baileys (1994), 1m 35.08s
    (1000) Fastest winning time – Ghanaati (2009), 1m 34.22s

    I was very impressed with her Coronation win, Hills took it easy after he pulled away, I think there is way more improvement to come, only ever had 4 runs and already a dual G1 winner, she is the proven miler here not Rip Van Winkle, who I think 1m2f is his best distance.

    #240687
    MDeering
    Member
    • Total Posts 1688

    I’ve been thoroughly impressed by Ghanaati right out of the box, dating back to watching replays of the Kempton 2YO starts and then the 1,000 Guineas.

    I found her even more superior at Ascot than at Newmarket, against arguably a classier field. If a similar level of improvement was derived out of Ascot leading into Goodwood, we might see something special.

    Ghanaati should win here with similar authority. All that’s left is to see her and Goldikova lock horns.

    But where is the 9/4?

    #240688
    Scottf
    Member
    • Total Posts 53

    It was with WH but all gone now, in fact they were 5/2 for a time yesterday.

    #240714
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5552

    Rip Van Winkle should win easily in my opinion. Paco Boy won’t be good enough even if he does stay. Ghanaati is a class filly but Rip is improving rapidly and the Eclipse form is the strongest piece of form in the race by miles.

    #240735
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    I’d be against Rip here. He’s surely better at 10f on a more conventional track. I’d like to be backing Paco Boy at an each-way price if he definitely runs.

    #240759
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    My problem with Rip Van Winkle is in the past he’s taken that little bit too much time to do things. He looked to hit a flat spot in the guineas and got going all to late. He did it again in the Derby when Masterofthehorse started to challenge at the same time as he did, ran away from him but then he then gained the deficit back in the dying stages.

    He seemd to have gotten over that when he came with what looked like a winning run in the Eclipse and then he starts hanging and loses the race by further than he should have.

    So Rip Van Winkle is without doubt going to be a hard horse to catch spot on. He’s like a drug you feel like yo have to back him or you might lose out.

    What swings me in his favour is the Coronation Stakes never reaaly told us much more than we already knew about Coronation Stakes other than she is very good as Barry Hills suggested.

    She’s certainly a much more straight forward horse than Rip Van Winkle and is probably the safer bet of the two but I doubt very much if the fillies are as good as the colts this year. Rainbow View and Fantasia have flopped miserably and the guineas form hasn’t been franked at all. In fact the 2nd 3rd and 4th have ran dreadfully bad races albeit with excuses.

    I will support Rip Van Winkle despite the resevations but he’s not going anywhere as far as the betting is concerned. There’s no sense or value risking an AP bet on him.

    While I agree Paco Boy should run well and might win I just can’ see it. His form at a mile is well below Classic standards and it would be a big ask to expect him to beat both these horses. If one faltered in the run to the line he might grab second but I just can’t see him beating both.

    The rest are there so the owners can tell their friend "I have a runner at Goodwood do come along"

    Rip Van Winkle for me.

    #240925
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5552

    Fist,

    I agree with everything you just said. I’d forgive him hitting a flat spot in the guineas. He ran a very similar race to Mastercraftsman and he cam on a lot for that run. I think Rip was rusty that day, and as you say, things just happened too fast for him over the mile.

    I think he is alot sharper now, as his Eclipse run proves, and there will be no Sea The Stars to repel his charge in the Sussex.

    It’s difficult to gauge how good Ghanaati is. She has beaten a moderate bunch of fillies, but she has beaten them easily it has to be said. She is by far the best 3yo filly over a mile in Europe, but the colts look very strong this year.

    Paco Boy and Lord Shanakill will be the ones following them home. Set Sail will lock up after Rip collects the pot.

    #241011
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3777

    Rip Van Winkle may be better suited by 10f, whereas Ghanaati looks and performs like a high class miler. Paco Boy will be suited by Goodwood and is an obvious threat to the front two in the betting, although the weight for age allowance tips the balance in favour of the two main three year olds in the field.

    My feeling is that Ghanaati will win as she seems the most straightforward ride and is more comfortable at the mile than Rip Van Winkle.

    Ghanaati ( Nap )

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #241029
    Ian
    Member
    • Total Posts 1415

    On form Rip Van Winkle is head and shoulders above but would I back him? No! Firstly Rip has shown that he doesn’t really like courses that have a dip or have unusual characteristics. He struggled coming down the hill at Epsom and didn’t handle the dip at Newmarket. Goodwood is a tricky track. Also, talented as he is, he strikes me as the type of horse that has his own way of doing things and is just as likely to get beaten at a short price in a race he should win as he is to run to a very high mark being narrowly beaten against a very good horse in a very good race.

    Ghanaati and Paco Boy are very similar I think in their ability. Paco Boy is the obvious value of the two but as for which of the three will win the race ???? Gawd knows. :? A race to leave alone for me.

    #241034
    Rob V
    Member
    • Total Posts 173

    Ghanaati 8) She’s on the crest of a wave, has a smart turn of foot and will be a very tough nut to crack if the ground is firm.

    Paco Boy seems more reliable than Rip Van Winkle but, to me, he’s still a 7F specialist and might be found wanting in the last half furlong. RVW looks like a genuine 10F horse. I think that Ghanaati will be too sharp for these two.

    #241038
    curragh
    Member
    • Total Posts 27

    Have to believe that over a mile (on good/fast ground), Ghanaati will be good enough to win this. Perhaps her 1000 form hasn’t been held up very well but her time and then her win at Ascot suggest that she is a top class filly, who should be too good for the rest.
    Just wish Mastercraftsman was running in this, but can’t have everything.

    #241047
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    I couldn’t put my mind to rest wondering why AOB runs Rip Van Winkle here and not Mastercraftsman. Reading your posts I noticed a few of you were saying Rip would be suited better by 10f which was my way of thinking too.

    But who are we that we think we know better than the master of Ballydoyle or Johhny Murtagh?

    In the Eclipse I was so busy watching Conduit I only knew that he came out of the pack and was done for speed and never really studied the race until now.

    I had to watch the race about 6 times because I couldn’t believe how well Rip Van Winkle was going between 2 and 3 furlongs from home.

    He looks to be going even better than Sea the Stars and it’s Mick Kinane who is stoking up his mount while Murtagh still doesn’t move. I swear if that had been a mile race Sea the Stars would have been in a lot of more trouble than he was at te end of the 1m2f’s IMO.

    Of course Sea the Stars picked up well but when Murtagh asks Rip Van Winkle to go he comes there looking a huge threat but dies/hangs in the closing stages. It’s almost like he never quite got the trip.

    I know Rip Van Winkle ran well in the Derby but that was run so slow Overdose woud have got the trip.

    Obviously Murtagh will have relayed how well the horse was going 2 out and I would imagine they are going to Goodwood full of confidence the trip will suit him better than the 10f of the Eclipse or the Juddmonte,

    I also had alook at Ghanaati’s race at Ascot to see if I could knock any holes in it. She definitely has a lot of ability or she wouldn’t have stole a march on them the way she did. On the down side there was all sorts of bumbing and barging going on behind her which only heloed her cause. The second is almost stopped in her tracks Rainbow View gets going al too late and in the end although they are catching her she wins quite easily. The thing is the second and third are as ordinary as you could hope to find. Rainbow View who I have a love hate relationship got beat again the other day.

    One things for sure unless Sea the Stars is the most overrated horse in history Rip Van Winkle is from a totally different planet to anything Ghanaati has ever taken on.

    If he arrives at Goodwood in the same nick and frame of mind he was in at Ascot he’ll absolutely murder this filly.

    Rip Van Winkle in a shoe as the saying goes.

    #241049
    Ian
    Member
    • Total Posts 1415

    Fist Rip is bugger. Watch the 2000 Guineas again, you’d swear he wanted further than a mile.

    He’s one I just can’t trust I’m afraid though as you say if he puts it all in and puts it all together he’ll hack up.

    #241059
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    I totally agree he gave me the same impression but on relection for whatever reason he was slow to pick up. He got going late and that can give you the impression a horse needs further when really what he needs is to strengthen up a bit more

    They must have fancied their chances that 1m2f would suit the horse after the Derby and the fact Masterccraftsman had the mile races covered the Eclipse was really a must for the horse.

    The thing is he’s never stopped improving and he does have a lot of speed. I think it was TAPK who reckoned he was a sprinter which is hardly the case but a mile may be his ideal trip now.

    I’m willing to bet it is.

    I see Paco Boy is a definite starter which adds a bit of spice to the pot.

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