Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Hugh Taylor has tipped up Swiss Storm for this race in his column this morning. Not sure what view the bookies tend to take on Hugh’s ante-post selections, but we may see a price contraction.
As a gambler I think your view of racing festivals is largely coloured by how successful you’ve been. I backed quite a few winners this week, and thus my feeling is it was a thoroughly entertaining Cheltenham. That said, my overriding thought with regards racing at the current time is ‘roll on the flat’.
Eminent was a very nice winner on his debut but the race doesn’t look strong, despite 4 winners coming out of it. Those horses look exposed at a level well below what you would be hoping for, they have also been plying their trade beyond a mile.
Looking at Eminent and how he performed over 1 mile at 2yo, I would say 10F plus and The Derby might be a more suitable target. He does look one to improve a good bit this year and looked the clear pick as the one to follow from the maiden he won comfortably. I like the way he does his business.
I was pleased to see Utmost entered for John Gosden and George Strawbridge, he looks a smart prospect and I feel he may have a bit more toe than some the other lightly raced dark sorts I have been looking at over the winter. He obviously needs major improvement but I hope to see him in a Guineas trial.
Somewhat coincidental that Eminent and Utmost were born on exactly the same day and turned 3yo physically last Saturday, 4th March.
I was with Caravaggio from day 1 last year and did him ante-post for Royal Ascot after his first race. While I was happy to back him for the Coventry, I refused to back him for the 2000 Guineas because I had grave concerns that he would train on and stay the mile. There was something about his last run that made me feel I wasn’t watching the same horse who won the Coventry.
Whilst I massively respect your opinion on young horses, I’m not sure I’m with you regarding Caravggio, Steve. His last run in the Phoenix Stakes doesn’t look one to be drawing too many conclusions from – he beat a weak, small field under a hands and heels ride from Heffernan. I can’t see anything that’s too troubling there.
In terms of his targets for this year I’d agree he’s unlikely to be directed at the Guineas with Churchill already there for Ballydoyle. Magnier and Co. know that both Churchill and Caravaggio have a large amount of potential value at stud and you’d imagine they will be kept apart so that value isn’t damaged by one of their own.
I feel like maybe you’re tarring Caravaggio with the same brush as Air Force Blue, which to me is unfair given he’s by a different sire and they seem to be fairly dissimilar as individuals.
Great analysis Steve. I’m hoping a few of these Frankels might turn out to be classic contenders this season to prove that he’s not just passing on his precocity and raw talent.
John Gosden’s Frankel colt Erdogan is one of the most intriguing contenders for me. His mother is Dar Re Mi who was an excellent and willing filly in her day. She was the dam of So Mi Dar, who was a leading Oaks contender before her setback.
Dar Re Mi has had a foal to Dubawi since Erdogan and we may see that filly this season. The Fugue was also in foal to Dubawi and had the filly in January 2016. Said to look almost identical to her mother The Fugue’s filly will be fascinating to see when she reaches the racecourse.
In the meantime, it is possible that Erdogan could be capable of matching his breeding and his unknown ability still appeals more to me at 50/1 than some of those whom we have already seen and can safely put a pen through for various reasons at the same odds.
How do you feel about Cracksman, Steve?
Hugh is absolutely fantastic and in my opinion his columns are ‘must read’ stuff, even though I rarely back his selections. I believe he’s going to be appearing on the Final Furlong podcast soon which I’m eagerly anticipating.
I had a bit on Cracksman after his maiden win in which he put up a good time – he’s got the right pedigree and connections for the classics, and I’m excited to see him this year. The second in that maiden, the Godolphin colt Wild Tempest, is also of interest.
Other maiden winners I thought looked classic prospects are Barney Roy and Utmost.
I would have thought any multiple involving thistlecrack is just dead in the water
Unless you’ve taken a NRNB offer, surely?
The O’Learys come across as very petty individuals. I reckon they’re bitter about the lack of star quality in their ranks relative to other owners, despite the massive number of horses they have.
Any reason why this market is suspended on the exchange?
Potentially due to an unverified rumour regarding Jezki being out, which looks to be false.
Jezki out for season. There goes my 130’s CH
Where did you see this?
Isn’t it a bit of a sad indictment of the jumps game that people are discussing a hypothetical match up at next year’s Cheltenham?
Why aren’t there races before then prestigious enough to attract both horses?
I’d find it quite surprising if SJ doesn’t go to the Gold Cup after that. Looks like he’d at least be competitive in the GC and that’s the premier jumps race of the season – with way more prestige and prize money than the Ryanair. He’d be far from a banker in the Ryanair anyway.
If Alpha des Obeaux was trained by anyone else I’d be worried about him turning up at Cheltenham,the problem us fans of the horse have here isn’t the fact he’s burst a blood vessel its that he might well run in the 4 miler instead,a race who’s credibility has risen year on year,he’s 16/1 for both races but whatever he runs in he’ll go off single figures so backing him for both is the best idea for me.His trainer will remain quiet as a Mouse right upto March before we know a thing but I’m still confident he’ll get him there.Disko (25/1 RSA) is the horse who will dictate who goes where as he is a proper RSA type to me too.I hope he goes for the 4 miler though.(16’s)
What a jumper of a fence Disko is he proved today why I rate him so highly and he could even be a JLT horse now.Forget the 4 miler he’s better than that.Alpha des Obeaux wins the prize for most Ante-Post money invested on a horse who’s not run this week and that speaks volumes,if he turns up he wins.Simple as that and ‘Disko’ will go JLT.
I’d say it’s been a pretty good week for Might Bite backers.
Did tell myself I wasn’t going to bet until nrnb came in this season but that diddnt go too well.
Done now until nrnb comes out
In total.supreme
moon racer 16/1 12/1
Jenkins 25/1 14/1
Cilaos emery 12/1 nrnb
Saturnas 48.0
Riven light 78.0
Finians oscar 16/1Neptune
Saturnas 20/1
Death duty 16/1
Jenkins 28.0
Monalee 33/1 54.0
No comment 142.0
Bacardys 25/1
Invitation only 14/1
Blow by blow 25/1
Finians oscar 20/1
Cilaos emery 56.0Albert bartlett
Death duty 25/1
Monalee 25/1
Turcagua 25/1
Penhill 20/1
The story teller 33/1Mares novice
La bague au roi 20/1 12/1
The nipper 20/1
Augusta kate 10/1 8/1
Let’s dance 10/1
Airlea beach 9/2Arkle
Min 9/1 8/1
Altior 4/1
Don’t touch it 78.0Jlt
Yorkhill 6/1 13/2
Coney island 68.0
Bellshill 86.0
Blue et rouge 20/1
00 seven 182.0
Le prezien 188.0
Charbel 86.0
Buveur dair 14/1Rsa bellshill 14/1
Coney island 40/1 25/1
Blue et rouge 220.0
Gangster 240.0
A toi phil 25/1
OO seven 46.0 82.0
Champers on ice 33/1
Alpha des obeaux 9/1
A genie inabottle 25/1
Martello tower 96.0Bumper
Next destination 20/1
Ballyward 25/1
Carter mckay 25/14miler
Martello tower 16/1
Champers on ice 25/1
A genie inabottle 25/1Gold cup
Native river 33/1
Minella rocco 40/1Stayers hurdle
Vroum vroum mag 62.0 60.0 55.0
Kotkikova 68.0
Nicholls canyon 10/1
Jezki 18/1
Shaneshill 28.0
Arctic fire 360.0Ryanair
Valseur lido 25/1
God’s own 33/1
Djakadam 20/1
Sub lieutenant 20/1
Vaniteux 242.0Any race
Barters hill 14/1 (injured)
The new one 14/1
Battleford 12/1 10/1
Blow by blow 14/1
Invitation only 10/1
Identity thief 14/1
Shantou village 20/1
Buveur dair 9/1
Bellshill 8/1
Bacardys 12/1So you’ve already had over 80 ante-post bets on Cheltenham?
