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The Eye Of Sauron

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  • in reply to: Moscow Man #760701
    The Eye Of Sauron
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    RIP

    in reply to: NEW Q&A – Simon Rowlands, Timeform #458214
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    Couple here

    1. Do Timeform time NH races from when the tape goes up, or from when the first horse passes the start line?

    2. This is a really minor pedantic one, but has been bugging me. What is the reason behind the Timeform house-style for French names ‘de’ ‘du’ and ‘de La’ whereby it is (when lower case used) Oiseau de Nuit, Jair du Cochet and Madison de Berlais, but Michel Le Bon, Bel La Vie, Rubis Sur Ongle etc. And Notus de La Tour…….

    3. Is it an irritant to have to continually justify the ratings of Arkle & Flyingbolt (have lost count of the number of essays in Chasers & Hurdlers over the years which seeks to do this)? Personally, I have read them all, taken a view and I agree with Timeform’s view given the weight of evidence Timeform present, but has this had a sub-conscious effect on recent higher ratings for the top chasers?

    Taking Timeform’s top 20 rated chasers, 4 of them raced in the mid 60’s, and 11 have raced since 2000, leaving only Desert Orchid, Burrough Hill Lad, Master Oats, Captain Christy and Carvill’s Hill to represent the 30-odd year period from say 1967 to 1998.

    Has the standard improved so much this century?

    Thanks for taking the time and trouble to answer these questions.


    I really don’t know regarding the house style for French horses! While I am no fan of accepting something just because “that is the way it has always been”, this is one of those instances. Unlike many other points of language, I suspect there may be no right or wrong, just a preferred style which you need to apply consistently. Please let me know if you find out differently!

    In some respects, yes, in others, no. Arkle’s rating is lost in the mists of time, 10 years before the first Chasers & Hurdlers and 20 years before even I joined Timeform. Others looked at that rating in great detail long before I got involved and I am not as well placed as they were to comment. On the other hand, I think it is really rather wonderful that racing still talks about a horse from 50 years ago as if he has great relevance to what is going on now, not least because of THAT rating. That sort of comparison across-the-years is something racing does better than most other sports, because it long ago formalised a way of comparative assessment which is much more sophisticated than can be found in other sports. That’s something to be encouraged, celebrated even.

    I can speak with more authority about jumps ratings from the 1980s onwards, as I was Timeform’s jumps handicapper from 1987 to 1997 and have kept an eye on things since, of course. I do think that truly top-notch chasers were few and far between in the later years of the last century, and I do think that the top chasers of recent years have been exceptional. More to the point, I can vouch for the ratings’ methodologies that have independently come to that sort of conclusion.

    It should also be acknowledged that many of Timeform’s top hurdlers came in the otherwise “barren” period of the 1970s/1980s. Night Nurse (182), Monksfield (180), Persian War (179), Comedy of Errors (178), Lanzarote (177), Bird’s Nest (176), Bula (176) and Golden Cygnet (176) were around over a pretty short space of time. Wouldn’t mind a few of them showing up again to teach the youngsters a thing or two!

    in reply to: Jump racing at Chester ? #414203
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    Sounds like a great idea.

    If you’ve been to Sligo, you’ll know that course makes Chester look like the Rowley Mile, and they stage mixed meetings (and the occasional chase too).

    Plus, as someone said, jump racing has lost Windsor, Nottingham, Wolverhampton (OK a bit tenuous there, but it that was a very tight jumps track too), and are facing the loss of Hereford.

    As against that, only Ffos Las has been added.

    Of more concern to me would be that it makes the chance of a proper summer break less likely.

    in reply to: Matt Chapmans over reaction to Mike Smith on Zenyatta #328540
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    Personally, I would have left out the words "Mike Smith on Zenyatta", and saved the rest as a template….

    :roll:

    in reply to: PHIL SMITH – BHA Head Of Handicapping – Q&A #316972
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    Decent set of (prompt) answers TBH. I knew I’d be older by the time the answers came back, but am now wiser too.

    Thanks Phil- I don’t by any means agree with everything you’ve written, but I do respect your judgment.

    in reply to: Chasers and Hurdlers 2009-10 #314886
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    TBH, don’t mind the mid Oct launch- tis when the proper season starts anyway.

    I used to set my calendar by the Charisma Gold Cup at Kempton, mid Octber. Once recall driving like a lunatic to get to Newtown in Mid Wales (nearest available centre of civilization) so that I could watch the Charisma Chase in a bookies, in about 1997 or so.

    That meet, far more so than the early Chepstow meeting, was the real start of the Jumps IMO.

    Now seriously downgraded.

    in reply to: PHIL SMITH – BHA Head Of Handicapping – Q&A #312459
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    Phil- thanks for finding the time to answer this Q&A.

    1. Why does a win have to be penalised with a rise in the weights ? Is there a case with, say, a winning 11yo or 12yo chaser to stay on the same mark with beaten horses lowered accordingly. My point here being that horses of that mature age are not improving in the vast majority of cases – they have just struck lucky or the right opportunity has been found via excellent placement.


    2. An impressive win by, say, 10 lengths is often rightly rewarded with a big rise of 10lb to 14lb in the weights. However when beaten the same distance the same horse does not get dropped in such large chunks. It seems far easier to go up than come down the handicap. Why do it take so long to get dropped yet one win to get a huge raise ?


    3. With the valid argument that carrying big weights over marathon distances has a more tiring effect on a horse you design a special handicap for the Grand National. Why therefore is there not a special handicap designed for other marathon chases such as the Welsh National (often run on very heavy ground, so possibly more important than Aintree regarding top weights carried) or even the Eider Chase ? The ‘Aintree Factor’ in terms of the fences being far stiffer than anywhere else is in reality a thing of the past- it is a high quality marathon chase run on a flat track, the only unusual feature apart from its length and 40 runners, being the composition of the fences.


    4. Example- a horse has shown a proven (albeit low) level of form over hurdles, over a lengthy period of time, so it then switches to fences. The horse duly improves by jumping fences & goes up the chase handicap accordingly. However the hurdles handicapper also raises it’s hurdles mark to a comparable level, despite it being proven the horse is a far better chaser. Why ?


    5. Do you make handicapping assessments based on your own opinion of a horse’s preferred ground. In other words if a horse with winning form on fast ground subsequently runs badly on soft ground do you drop the horse by standard method or do you personally arbitrate to say " hated the ground" so I’ll leave him alone / lower by less ?.


    6. On a similar tack, say a horse handicapped to finish level with the horse which eventually finishes second wins a 3 mile chase on heavy ground by 20L. Assuming the second ran to its mark, how much more (if at all) would you increase the winner’s mark had the race been run on GTF?

    7. Do you look at the time of the race in conjunction with overall form? For example in a juvenile / novice hurdle on decent ground a 100 rated hurdler can often finish far closer to a good 125 rated novice than he should on pure ratings. Clearly the differential in class will be less apparent when a race only quickens up with half a mile to run. This is particularly relevant in small fields.

    However I’ve noticed that the 100 rated novice can get it’s mark adjusted upwards which, in the eye of an owner, can seem unjust. This system encourages conservative riding, jockeys not riding out to the line etc. Do you look at race times ?

    8. Fancy handicapping a few bumper races? :D

    Thanks in advance.

    in reply to: Paul Midgley has our rare coloured horse in training #312342
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    What will the Racing Post abbreviation be? Last time this came up was when a roan ran.

    RP, very unoriginally, put it in as ‘ro’.

    in reply to: Morning Line #310285
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    As somebody said on the BF forum, "I was expecting to see Nicholls jump onto Charlton’s lap and say "Gottle Of Geer"…..

    in reply to: monkerhostin retired #307022
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    I would like to record that I hate Monkerhostin like I’ve never hated another horse. Ever. Period.

    Reason?

    2004 Coral Cup- I was on Court Shareef at 200-1. From that day to this, I’ve had a Ouija Doll named Monkerhostin.

    Joking aside- super horse, well deserved retirement.

    in reply to: Quiz Question…. #298890
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    Touche- must have been asleep!

    BUT doesn’t detract from my point, I hope.

    Juvenile hurdles on Derby Day?

    Used to kick off at that teatime meeting at Bangor, 31st July, first race 3.45.

    Happy days.

    in reply to: Cheltenham veterans race #286039
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    Chief Dan George’s warm up for his WH Chase win was in a Vets’ Chase I believe.

    At Donny.

    I just wish these bunny-huggers would get a life FFS.

    in reply to: Treasulier #274024
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    Very sad and commiserations to connections.

    Treasulier’s death reduces the number of Roseliers still in training in the UK in 2009-10 to just 9, I think.

    Monet’s Garden
    The Listener
    Southwestern
    Wild Cane Ridge
    Huka Lodge
    Keepthedreamalive
    Woodlands Genpower
    Ballynure
    Sseame Rambler

    We are approaching the end of an era in that regard- the youngest of the great sire’s offspring is now 11 (Wild Cane Ridge).

    Would be great if The Listener or Monet’s Garden could pick up a few more big prizes before they bow out.

    in reply to: Is Dunguib the new Cygnet??? #264641
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    in reply to: Greatest NH sire of all time?? #264640
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    Roselier for soft ground horses..

    in reply to: Hexham #257495
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    In 1994, I once watched Suny Bay win a novice hurdle at Hexham- shortly before – or after- (age does dreadful things to your memory) The Fellow won the Gold Cup. It was the same day anyway.

    How anyone can say this place offers uncompetitive fare as a norm is beyond me.

    This time of the year, it tends to be farmed by the likes of HoJo and Ferdy, but it’s a great spotting ground for northern talent. Maybe not Cheltenham talent, but how many northern horses win there these days anyway?

    Hexham or Wolverhampton? Now there’s a 64p question…..

    in reply to: Cheltenham Race Distances #257375
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    Thanks also AP. That explains matters.

    The race time was 4:43.3, which is nearly 17 seconds quicker than the RP standard time for the usual 2m 4f 110y, and even if you knock say 7 seconds off that for half a furlong shorter, it would still be 10 seconds faster, so as you say, I suspect Poquelin and Kangaroo Court’s races were run over nearer to 2m 3f 110y.

    Perhaps I’ll Google-earth it with a scale rule. Perhaps not!!

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