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As we are coming up to the start of the flat season, it is a good time to start pulling out the database and seeing which trainers start the season well (and which don’t). I will be doing a feature on this in the near future before the season starts, but an interesting angle is for trainer Amy Murphy.
With 100+ day break runners she is 19 from 129 at a 14.73% strike rate, but importantly to a healthy +58.21 profit since 2016. In 2019 and 2020 she made a profit of +15 and +44.71 respectively and in 20201 so far, she is 3 from 4 at 75% with all four placed to a profit of +19.75 with winners at 11/4, 10/1 and 8/1 the latest at 8/1 coming just yesterday.
With the season commencing in June last term, looking at her 100+ day lay off runners, she was 4 from 18 at 22.22% but to a remarkable +51.5 profit with winners at 6/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 6/4.
So seemingly Amy Murphy gets her string very forward for a return to the racecourse and could prove a trainer of value to follow as the season begins.
Bowled out for 36! Madness, never seen anything like it, hardly played and missed at a thing, literally snicked everything they played at!
Mixed feelings on this. Can understand why they have done it but from a punting perspective I am disappointed. Always found Southwell a great betting medium, breeding often plays a strong part in horses in performing there and specialists if you can find them early can be a good source of profit.
The track configuration will undoubtedly attract good yards to the course, a big fair galloping course with a straight 5f will provide good opportunity for newcomers especially. Hopefully their changes are supported by the training ranks and proves a good move.
Personally I always look for what I consider value. I price up races and focus in on the most significant runners I think have been underestimated.
Pricing up is a skill any serious punter should learn. When a horse wins at say 8/1, the perception will always be that was a good price as it warrants a good return, but when you price races up you soon realise such prices may not really be a ‘value’ price.
Every horse in a race has a chance of some sorts hence every horse has a price.
But every punter is different. For a ‘Saturday’ punter, an 8/1 winner is a good bet as if you are looking for winners in this way it is a good return, but if you price up every day looking for value you have to be the right side of the coin.
Not sure where this thread left off. IMO, the problem with form in the book depends how far you back and the likely hood of a horse returning to that form. Ultimately it is probably best to assess a horse on what it has done in it’s more recent season to determine if it will come back to form. Horses run every day, 3 or 4 in a race that are below a winning handicap mark etc but will often find themselves open to more progressive and stronger current form horses. Not that there is no merit in backing a horse on back form, it just has to be put in perspective. I would say you need to have a significant factor for that horse to run back to that form, or as an older horse catch them peaking or in peak form to suggest they can run up to their best and potentially beyond, which would be needed against a horse with more in hand.
Samphire Coast is an example today, I priced it 25/1 outsider of the field going off 22/1. He was 2lb below his best winning mark today and 1lb below his 2nd last win, I don’t think there was any indication today he was ready to exploit that mark, but he ran creditably into 3rd which is worth marking up as the stable is in desperate form. He met an unexposed 3yo and that 2lb in hand was never going to be enough. His run today may indicate he is peaking back to form, for me he will need his optimum conditions in the right race to get back to winning ways. Chelmsford and probably a drop in class meeting the right horses may see him more interesting next time out as a fair handicapped horse.
Unfortunately horses decline often as they race on each year, some keep their physical peak for some while and maintain good form, but the formbook is full of declining regressive horses that are best avoided largely.
Sorry if this been discussed, and by no means detracting from others ideas to this. Medicine Jack was a good example this year, I put up Rocky Boy Grey on here at 6s as a progressive 6f horse and backed Atlantas Boy at double figures as another progressive 6f type. I priced Medicine Jack 20/1, he opened 9/2 and ended up going off 14s and ran poorly. He was a past listed winner in 2018 and a group 2 winner as a 2yo. In 2019 he dropped 21bs without winning a contest, he has dropped a further 10lbs since joining Fell this term and is now rated 70 having not won for over 2 years. At some point this horse will win in his turn, but he has no way of ever reaching that ability again.
Raabihah – won a group 3 (though long odds on) before finishing second to Tarnawa in the Vermeille
Cold Light Of Day – This one unfortunately drew a blank, seemingly not training on from a 2yo
Roulston Scar – Came back late to the track, winning first run off a break at 16/5 in a class 2 handicap at Nottingham beating Danzeno and placing 3rd off 104 2 runs on
Apollinaire – Never made it back to the track
Global Prospector – Failed to live up to his initial impression disappointing in 3 runs, never got over his intial problems for absence
Luncies – Progressed well in handicaps win 3 of 4 at 8/1, 5/1 and 85/40
Pale King – Hasn’t run since debut
Cirona – Won a conditions event at 10/1 before finishing second in a group 3 and a listed contest
Cazadero – Won his following start at grade 3 level easily, let down 3rd run not seen since there has been a hold up, still has potential to be very good
Maydanny – Didn’t quite work up to what I hoped, but he landed a touch for me at 10/1 at Goodwood going off 5/1
Campanelle – My favourite one I put up, landed me a good bet at Ascot at 7/1 ante post, going off 9/2 for the Queen Mary, won the Morny following, should never have raced at 8f in Keenland, she will still prove to be top class horse back down in distance
Queens Gift – Failed to reach previous season form
Fooraat – I was very disappointed she didn’t make up into a useful type the potential she showed. Likely finish now with her pedigree and a brood mare career awaits
Roberto Escobarr – won his following novice at well at 4/1, before coming up short in the Voltigeur
Worthily – Campaigned terribly by the owners, sent to a Derby way to early and finished his seasonCould have put a lot lot more in here over year, disappeared. Just thought I would round up how they performed. The highlight for me personally was Campanelle. She proved a highly talented filly in the end and made my work over the pond worth it.
Night Of Thunder continues to prove a positive trend with his 2yos. He has had 5 runners out this year with 2 winners at 15/2 and 10/3 at SP. Both trained by Mark Johnston.
Funnily, Mark Johnston is 5/5 with Night Of Thunder runners now.
Night Of Thunder could quickly become a leading 2yo sire the way he is going.
I took 7/1 about Campanelle as soon as they put her in the market. Was impressed with her debut at Gulfstream made a post about her a bit after on other part of forum. She looks as speedy as anything Ward has sent here. Ran a fast time with strong sectionals out in front and she will take a lot of catching. This is her game she is bred to be a sprinter and will take a good one to beat her.
John Gosden sent a nice colt to Newbury yesterday in Worthily, owned by George Strawbridge who has had a lot of success with the family.
A bit slow away early, just stood still when the gates opened. But he quickly settled into the rear off just an ordinary pace. Into the home straight from 4 out he was travelling very strongly and made good headway to 2 out going easily and soon quickened to lead. He went away from them nicely in the final stages just hands and heels and gave the impression there is a lot more to come.
John Gosden has trained the whole family and the dam Vignette has produced some very nice types with plenty of black type runners and four have gone on to rate well into the 100’s on RPRs. Most notably high classed Leger winner Lucarno in 2007, as well as Thought Worthy who won a Voltigeur and ran in a Leger and Flying Officer who won a group 2 over 2 miles at Ascot.
He has plenty of potential and could have a lot of ability based on the families success and he is going to improve as he stepped up in distance and while he has a long way to go, you would imagine Gosden will see him as a Leger type if he has the ability. A nice colt to keep an eye on.
I quite liked the performance of Roberto Escobarr on debut for Haggas yesterday at Haydock, in a 10 furlong maiden. He was green early and slow away from the gates he settled in last off just an ordinary pace. But from 3 out he started to make headway and down into the final 2 he was hampered trying to get a run and then repeatedly denied a run until getting clear into the final furlong. By the time he was clear his chance was well gone, but he picked up and closed the race well not given a hard time, just doing enough to get third, and he should come on a lot for the experience. He is a brother to Pablo Escobarr, a listed winner with some very smart form and both brothers are trained by William Haggas. He, William Haggas, has a strong follow up record with 3yos in these races having raced so can be expected to go close next time out. But further more he could have a bit of potential and and this Galileo colt could be a nice horse down the line.
Fooraat turned out a hugely impressive display yesterday in the second division of the fillies novice race over a mile at Chelmsford. She relished an extra furlong here, but more importantly she looks to have come on significantly over the winter and looks to have a lot of potential. She broke well and settled into a lead early on, she was racing on a very tight rein under David Egan and she seemed full of running. Down to 4 out he let go of her a bit and she increased the tempo going easily to go a couple clear with the lead. Into the home straight past 2 out she had them all in trouble and she came clear easily quickening in front and finished the final furlong strongly to win going away whilst carrying a penalty in doing so. She has put 11 lengths between her and Maria Rosa who she was a neck ahead of last time out, the filly has most likely run below form but she disputed the race for a long way and having been keen early also, had nothing left in the final furlong.
She is a sister to Benbatl, a three time group 1 winner who operates best between 8f and 10f so she may find more improvement up in distance. Her dam Nahrain who Varian trained also, was a two time group 1 winner at 10f and she has certainly inherited a lot of ability, and I think she has the potential to be group class. Nahrain and Benbatl were good early in their careers, Nahrain winning her first four starts with the fourth being the Prix De L’Opera at group 1 level. Benbatl Turned out a similar performance early in his career as she has here, winning his maiden by 7 lengths before stepping up in class and later that season winning a group 3.
So I think judged on her performance and the ability in the family she could be very useful and she might be one to follow as she progresses as the family perform well with racing.
I wanted to make a note for Night Of Thunder as a stallion. His record with 2yo’s rates very well and he is proving quite a stallion to keep on side.
His overall record with 2yos, having his first crop last year, is very positive and he could be one to keep on side this season.
(Stats based on UK and Ire)
All Time
Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place%
133 32 24.06 +59.25 58 43.61First Time Out
Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place%
44 11 25 +19.42 16 36.36Having Had One Run
Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place%
33 8 24.24 +40.42 17 51.52He’s only had 3 runners out so far this week but one of those won at 15/2 for Mark Johnston.
Queens Gift looks one to keep one side after her reappearance in the Palace House. Not drawn well over in 3, she had to race well away from the favourable rail where races have been dominated over the few days and back off the pace where she likes to be up with it. Despite that she shaped well down to the final 2, but she still had all the principles well ahead of her and not coming back. She kept on encouragingly in the final stages and should only come on for the run.
She was an absolute rocket last year when they dropped her back to 5f and on good ground or quicker she went 2,1,1,2,2 with the latter two placings at listed level. One of those 2nds came in the Beverley Bullet, when she was narrowly behind Judicial who she has met on this occasion and didn’t finish far off him again suggesting she is not far from her best. Given her draw and early position I thinks she has run a cracking race and should come on for it and she is worth a try at listed at least when getting things more favourable.
Wesley Ward introduced a nice looking filly to the track recently in a valuable maiden in Campanelle. She was actually second favourite to her stable mate but on the track she looked far the better. She broke well and showed good speed and soon took up the running, she had really stretched most of the field by half way and only two horses could keep tabs with her. In to the home straight she was going easily in front, sent on for home she found plenty in the final stages and drew clear in good style, coming 3+ clear of runner up and drawing 13+ clear of the rest in a good time of 55.66 (although firm) seemingly with a bit in the tank. She is another Stonestreet Stable horse as own Cazadero and look to have two good juveniles on their hands. She could be interesting for Royal Ascot if going down that route. Wesley Ward has won the Queen Mary 3 times in the last 10 years, and she looks as speedy as anything he has sent over, her dam was a 5 furlong listed winner at 2 and Kodiac is a strong speed influence, she could be a useful filly.
Was very impressed with Maydanny at Yarmouth yesterday and he looks absolutely thrown on this handicap debut appearence. Handicapped off two novices last year on softer ground which he ran fair in, but on a sounder surface yesterday he looked smart. Half brother to high class Elarqam and two more 100+ rated horses, he looks to have inherited a lot of ability. He travelled through the race very comfortably down inside the final 2 making easy headway, final furlong asked to go on he quickened and closed out really strongly winning going well away at the line and looked to have plenty in hand. He cost 1,350,000gns being out of five time group 1 winning Attraction and though he is starting low, he looks to have the ability to go a long way. If he can get into the Hunt Cup he could be the proverbial handicap good thing.
Should note also trained by Mark Johnston, he trained both his half brother Elarqam and the dam, Attraction.
