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Do punters look for value or best prices?

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  • #1501690
    simonnottsimonnott
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    • Total Posts 281

    Punters, after you’ve been through the form book and come up with your selections, do you have any perception of a price which make them bets? https://www.starsportsbet.co.uk/simon-nott-fancy-a-dust-up/

    #1501872
    Red Rum 77Red Rum 77
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1528

    That’s a good question, Simon, and one I’ve asked myself often. When you’re winning it’s easy to kid yourself that you found value but in my mind value should be value whether it wins or not. Myself I think I try to look for value, but if I’m honest suspect that I’m lacking the knowhow of going about it. I could never bet on a rank outsider unless the was some angle on it which I found.

    #1501876
    Tank
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    • Total Posts 294

    The mention of last minute prices brought to mind my one visit to a dog track when visiting my brother back oop north many years ago. The books chalked up their prices about a minute before the off; I’ve never been tempted to go to the dogs again.

    On the subject of value; a long standing member of this forum has it tattooed on his forehead, this may well explain why he’s never married.

    Hope I’ve used the semicolon in the correct manner above; I’m experimenting with it ;-)

    #1501877
    TriptychTriptych
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    • Total Posts 10491

    When I sit down to study a race I never look at the bookies pricing up as it can influence the way I study the form. Seeing an odds on favourite in a race I immediately want to take it on with a bigger priced choice.
    However, if my chosen horse also turns out to be the bookies favourite then I have to back it hopefully getting even money and a best odds promise.
    Anything under Evens I will just watch. :good:

    Sometimes when at the races on concert days (my local course is Newmarket) I avoid betting on the Tote on any horse ridden by Frankie Dettori the best value is to found with the bookies offering best odds guarantee, are there any on course bookies that do this now?
    Jac :rose:

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1501878
    TriptychTriptych
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    • Total Posts 10491

    I grew up close to Walthamstow dogs Tank. The bookies there wanted you to take a price before you saw what the dogs looked like ;-)

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1501893
    robnorthrobnorth
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    • Total Posts 4585

    I use a method which I believe gives me an edge and then seek out best prices.

    I used to work to value prices for all my selections, often more than one in a race, but market gets wise over time. I now have a more nuanced approach.

    #1501903
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 158

    While many things may influence why you make a particular selection for a race for me the one overriding question I ask myself is ….
    “do I believe the price offered & taken reflect,in my own mind regardless of what others may think,the horses true chance of winning this particular race?”
    probably my last post for a while
    good luck to all

    #1501904
    GoldenMiller34GoldenMiller34
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    • Total Posts 1183

    “Look” (assess the form) for the winner and invest if that horse is 4/1 or bigger (E/W if 16/1 or bigger). Don’t look for value or best prices, don’t digest the odds first, look for the horse!

    #1501905
    homersimpson
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    • Total Posts 2277

    Hope I’ve used the semicolon in the correct manner above; I’m experimenting with it

    Doesnt matter if when and where you use punctuation nowadays on an internet forum and in text messages especially people just dont use it doesnt make any sense whatsoever what some people put ;-)

    I grew up close to Walthamstow dogs Tank. The bookies there wanted you to take a price before you saw what the dogs looked like

    Only ever been to the Dogs once on a work’s outing and was offered the advice to watch the Bookies boards to see the movers and back the ones shortening in price. Didn’t take any notice and had forecasts and even a tricast come up.

    As for what the dogs looked like I quipped, when they came out with their handlers, that “they look like dumb f*****s….and the dogs don’t look too clever either”, which went down well with some but not others :whistle:

    #1501907
    homersimpson
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    • Total Posts 2277

    When you’re winning it’s easy to kid yourself that you found value but in my mind value should be value whether it wins or not. Myself I think I try to look for value, but if I’m honest suspect that I’m lacking the knowhow of going about it.

    This. If I get a winner say over 10/1 I always think I did well to get the value there but this is pure hindsight. I suppose in a fashion you are sub-consciously looking for value but I don’t see value in any price under 2/1 whilst others (such as Ginger) can see it in odds on shots. Each to their own I suppose.

    #1501972
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4585

    Homer

    If you get a that winner and 8/1 was available with 7 bookmakers but you take the 10/1 with an 8th bookmaker then you have some degree of value which is realised if the horse wins. If you get the best odds possible, or near to the best odds on a regular basis you are nearer to making a profit. SP is a very good indicator of the winning chance of horses over a period of time, so if you can beat SP you are more likely to end up in front.

    That said value in terms of the price you expect is in the eye of the beholder. My must successful betting period was in the early days of the exchanges when I set my own tissue and backed horses which fitted certain criteria provided they were at a longer price than my tissue. I suspect that it was more a question that I was taking advantage of the lack of judgement of those laying horses rather than my own tissue being particularly accurate. Mug money abounded for a while but it’s harder now the market is more clued up.

    If I rated a horse at 3/1 and it was on offer at 50/1 then the likelihood is that I’ve got something wrong! That’s what’s wrong with the Kelly Criterion for staking…, but that’s another matter probably discussed elsewhere!

    Rob

    #1502020
    Richard88
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    • Total Posts 280

    Hope I’ve used the semicolon in the correct manner above; I’m experimenting with it ;-)

    Intelligent woman sexually attracted to man who used a semicolon correctly

    #1502404
    Red Rum 77Red Rum 77
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1528

    Maybe it’s hindsight but the only time I can recall backing value was BEECH ROAD in the 1989 Champion Hurdle. Having beaten a more fancied horse in the race; more than once so to my mind proving it was no fluke; I thought it was overpriced. The horse it beat was the second favourite; and was still fancied ahead of BR.

    Of cos winning helped, but even if it was second I still thought at the time and even now; it was value.

    GoldenMiller you’re absolutely right and that’s the way I approach my racing.

    Only been to the dogs twice never backed a winner. My local track is Belle Vue, as for the Gee gees Haydock

    Homer my education in punctuation is sadly lacking. :unsure:

    What we need in value is lessons from Ginger :wacko:

    #1502408
    Tank
    Participant
    • Total Posts 294

    Nice one, Richard :-)

    #1502426
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17561

    @Blackcountry Kid

    Hope to see you back soon mate

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