Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Of the 56 races at Southwell so far since the change of surface, there have been;
Lead – 5 – 8.93%
Prominent – 14 – 25%
Mid Field – 18 – 32.14%
Hold Up – 19 – 33.93%But emerging as a pattern is that 4 of the 5 wins from horses having led were back at the minimum five furlong on the straight course. When broken down on the five furlong course, there have been 13 races;
Lead – 4 – 30.77%
Prominent – 2 – 15.38%
Mid Field – 3 – 23.08%
Hold Up – 4 – 30.77%While it is not a benefit to front run on the five furlong course given wins in behind, it does seem to be much more favourable than making the running on the round course. So far, only one runner has managed to do so in 43 races clocking in at a meagre 2.33%, which gives an impression it is not proving favourable to front run on the round course
No problem, Ginge.
I remember loosely your staking plan from the past, it certainly seems to work for you.
I have staked using Kelly and like you say can do 1/2 kelly 1/4 kelly etc to mitigate a bit of risk.
Staking is certainly something to examine closely as it is crucial, so thank you for explaining your method.
I have a simple kelly criterion calculator in a spreadsheet if anyone wants it.
TB
Of the 48 races so far at Southwell over 6 meetings, the generally winning positions have been;
Lead – 4 – 8.33%
Prominent – 12 – 25%
Mid Field – 17 – 35.42
Hold Up – 15 – 31.25%Too early to distinguish any bias but those are the early figures after 6 meetings
Here’s a giggle for you.
In the 70’s my Dad’s football team were defending a corner. One guy used to wear a toupee, defending the corner he got his head on the ball but headed it goal bound, his toupee came off and went one way and the ball the other, through cries of despair the goalkeeper dived right and caught the toupee and let the ball go in the other corner.
Needless to say he soon dropped the toupee for football!
Interestingly, in that period, Paul Nicholls has had the most runners between that odds range with 5 runners and 5 winners since 2017. Ranging from 1/20 to 1/25.
On the flat Haggas has had the most with 3 runners and 3 winners since 2018 ranging from 1/25 to the 1/40 shot he had win this season.
I remember the Haggas one this season at 1/40 in Tarhib. It was just about the worst race you could possibly put together!
The two 1/50 shot winners were Seamless in 2013 for Buick and Charles Hills, a 3 runner race at Yarmouth
The other was Stand Guard in 2014 in a 2 runner race at Southwell, ridden Queally trained by John Butler.
The two short losing runners at 1/20 were Triple Dip in 2015, Fanning for Johnston in a 4 runner race at Lingfield.
The other was Tree Of Liberty, also 1/20, at Ludlow in 2018 for Kerry Lee and Jamie Moore
Of those runners, I think Zarzyni is going to go with a hell of chance next up and in his next few races. He looks to me like he could be David Barron’s next Venturous. David Barron has a very good record for the owners of these two and has a lot of success in these colours.
Wineglass Bay I think can prove very interesting as he goes up in distance as New Bay’s in their second season have been taking to the distances brilliantly. He will be an interesting fight time handicapper.
Yeah Rowland Meyrick is the one. Good luck with how they go for you, I will assess closer on day to decide ideas for sure but certainly think the Rowland Meyrick is a good target for him. Another I like for that meeting is if they sent Numitor back there for the Castleford.
Doing some digging, between 2003 to date, I ran a query from 1/20 to the shortest odds winner I could find in the period at 1/50 (there were 2). Between those odds there were 50 bets, 48 wins to a 96% S/R that just about broke even. There were actually three 1/40 winners in 2021 and the two losing horses were 1/20 shots.
I like the look of Good Boy Bobby if they place him right. Good run in rehearsal chase, won at Wetherby before listed handicap and there is a listed 3 miler at Wetherby around Christmas, hopefully they send him
I was very impressed with Constitution Hill last week, VTC, what did you think? Put 14ls on RU after last and has ran to a high standard for a novice debut
I’ll share the pace mapping in here for a few months to see how the course is performing
On subject of sire’s, how good is New Bay going to be, check out his progeny at 10f to 12f. Amazing.
Is your betting plan similar to Kelly, Ginge? Logically your staking plan makes sense, stronger the chance and more value the stronger the bet.
While I apply probabilities to all my bets, I have never been quite so comfortable with kelly. While I trust my prices I have to remember that it is an approximation. Kelly falls down for me in that I can price something 2/1 for a standard handicap say, and I will consider it a good chance, but I will find 2/1 shots I prefer to bet more strongly.
My bet plan is broken down simply to 100 points, I bet 1-4 points depending on price and value, so I am applying similar to you in that regard, Ginge. Generally if I price something 5/2 under I consider it a 2pt start bet and consider more on top. For a few occasions of the year I am prepared to risk 10% of my bank, the last one for me that was this was Baaeed.
A good way of growing your bank mind, Mark, is a progressive staking plan. When I first started growing my bet funds going forward, every time I was above my highest point I would re-adjust the point, it allows the bank to grow that bit quicker. So say you have 10k, you lose 500 but keep at £100 a bet unless you lose so much, but as soon as you are over 10k you move your stake so if you jump to 10.5k you would adjust your stake to £105 allowing you to always bet a little bit bigger each time and make extra gains.
I suppose there are many ways to stake, but managing a bank and staking plan is crucial.
