Forum Replies Created
Nathan, were you much of a fan of Paco Boy? He was another miler I grew a lot of admiration for. Not many decent videos of him on youtube unfortunately, his Lockinge win is in about 3 frames per minute
Likewise, Nathan. I priced him up favourite for that race on soft ground and with that France run well in the past (terrible draw, held up off a ridiculously slow pace for a group 1, just never happened). This was his day, I remember I got on for good money in the morning on betfair as was plenty of liquidity, then pre off could still get a huge price so went in again. Money aside, it wasn’t that that made this such a memorable race. Just I had followed him so closely, especially with the writing, that he became a horse of affinity to me and it was just great to see him turn out such a performance.March 25, 2020 at 15:26 in reply to: What happens to “professional gamblers” in these trying times? #1486792
We have to go poor is the answer! Last months profits will have to tick me over for now and then will have to probably pull on fund which is not ideal. Luckily my partner is OK to work so bills etc not a big problem, but don’t want to have to sit it out too long. Was hoping Irish racing would carry on ticking over as Numerian got me off to a flyer over there! I’d be half tempted to play into the Hong Kong markets but too much form to learn from ground up so will just have to be reserved for me. I’m using the time to tidy up all my excel databases, review back all the notes and statistics I use for my work and I’ll be trawling through the database provider I use to find some edges.
May not be much on now but as I always say with horse racing, always something to do
Of what we will miss, do people think certain meetings can or should be re-arranged? Or do we just move on and have to cancel what has been. The National will be lost, is it possible to salvage it? The AW Championships have really started to gather steam, could that possibly be re-arranged?
Does anyone know how Dvinsky is enjoying his retirement? Hoping that the old boy is still about, (the horse in my profile) sure many won’t remember the old boy, he only raced to a moderate level, but was a constant fixture on the all weather. He finally retired when he was 12 with what I believe is the record amount of race course starts in the UK (please correct me if wrong), numbering 231 with 168 on the AW. He won 19 races and in the front three 86 times and earned about 120k in prize money. Not too shabby for a horse that only peaked at around 90 on official ratings. I hope you’ll forgive my big up of the old boy but he deserves all his recognition.
Good luck with your quest, there is merit in both lines of approach but you have to discern if there is a significant reason a horse can return to that best. It depends on how long you look back over form also. Forgiving a run or two and playing some past form can return mighty dividends. Out of interest how long would you typically look back? I work on about a year worth of form, further back I have to make the assessment if a horse is still up to that level and if there is any recent suggestion it could still harbor that form. I like when a horse with good back form returns to peak form and proves well handicapped. Generally in high class races a horse will hold form for longer but a lot of handicappers can easily regress and never reach that form again.
If you’re a fan of old form, keep an eye on Para Mio, best form all achieved over 12f and this winter they have dropped him as short as 6f clearly chasing a new handicap mark.
Is it as they say, politics and sport shouldn’t mix? And very good, Joe.
I find Hong Kong racing an interesting spectacle. A friend of mine got into horse racing in the last year or so, enjoys flat. I put him onto Hong Kong race replays to watch as such a different racing style and culture how they ride draws and course etc.
Do you still have to apply for an account to bet into their pools?
Check your messages in a mo Ginger
It certainly is something we should all hope for, no horse should have to race on drugs really. But, getting the USA to play ball will be a difficult thing, but it says something with two such respected figures in racing coming out against it.
Do you remember Curlin? He was a USA colt brought over for the Dubai World Cup, sure he has to go through some quarantining or detoxing whatever to be eligible for the race, but boy that thing has muscles on his muscles, sure his little perk me ups had their benefit for him.
Good question, Steepelchasing, and good info Wit. I’ve experimented looking in on HK racing and the horse weight seemed an interesting angle. I guess it is handy when you have some reputable data to compare it against, like a season pattern, many ways to interpret this angle.
Wit, of course sectional times are available, but can I ask also is a lot of emphasis placed on speed figures? I do like when analyzing the pace map it tells you simply which average position each horse raced in through the sectionals.
See Convict got his nose in front third time around (saddle slipped 2nd time up), think Haggas might do well by this one next season.
Well done Ginge, that 2.6 about Logician looks a great price now! My strongest bet of day come unexpectedly with a drift, though it was on the AW at Chelmsford ha.
Ginge, what are your thoughts about Doncaster this week as a whole and especially today, regards size of fields. Was hugely disappointed with turn out today which even included a match race at the end.
Looks a good renewal. I went 3/1 about Soffia here and 5/1 Soldier’s Call at the head of my market. Soffia has improved rapidly this season and was hugely impressive last time out but I think she will see a different Soldier’s Call this time.
At a bit of a price I wouldn’t be surprised if Invincible Army runs well tomorrow. He has come up short at group 1 company on a couple of occasions granted, but he showed plenty of speed to lie up with Hello Youmzain for a long way in the Sprint Cup before weakening inside final furlong. He’s got plenty of ability and has shown a high level of form winning well in group 2 company this year.
For me Soffia will take some beating, but this represents a better opportunity than of late for Soldiers Call given he has come up against Battaash and Blue Point at this level this season. And a small squeak for Invincible Army at a price.
I can’t disagree with your statement Ginge, certainly about the allowance. And you are right she could have gone on to improve as a 4yo but unfortunately we didn’t get to find out. I guess all I am saying is, whilst I agree ratings are important and hold water, things have to be put in perspective also and what amazed me about Zarkava looking back is how easy she won at 8f, beating Goldikova, who has gone down as a great, then also at 10f and then twice at 12f all at the very top level and impressively every time. For me her ratings don’t paint the whole picture, but then of course ratings are there as a guide not as an absolute. I agree with you it was a shame she didn’t race on at 4.
Out of interest what did you make of Logician today? Have Timeform put up a rating yet? I’d be interested to see how they have rated him, see that RPR’s have already gone up and rated him 119.