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# The Best Staking Plan For Horse Racing

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• #1565070

What do you think the best staking plan is?
What percentage of bank do you risk on one horse or race?

Mine is based on three things:
1) Probability of winning in percentage terms. More chance of winning the more money staked.
2) How much value I believe is in the bet. The more value the more money staked.
3) Size of my betting bank. The more money I’ve got the more money is staked

Well, four… The fact I am naturally cautious.

My Staking Plan:
My idea of the horse’s percentage chance of winning…
Minus the best odds available (in percentage terms)…
Times by (T)… Where (T) = Number of thousands of pounds in betting bank (to nearest thousand).
Plus (+)…
My idea of the percentage chance times by (C)… Where (C) = T number of thousands in bank divided by 5
Equals number of pounds staked (S)

This works out that: For any individual horse backed the stake can be as little as 0.1% of my betting bank on a rank outsider that I consider value… and up to a maximum of around 2.5% for an individual horse at a “shortish” price that I believe should be considerably shorter. However, if I think a horse is value I back it in some way, so usually have more than one bet in a race (main bet/s and savers,where main bets are what I consider to be best value in the race). Therefore can be up to around 5% of betting bank invested in any one race. Sometimes a little extra if believing more than one are exceptional value, but that’s extremely rare.

So a horse I believe has a 25% chance (fair 3/1) who is available 4/1 (20%) would have 1% of my betting bank staked… Shown below.

For a betting bank of £5,000 a horse I believe has a 25% chance of winning available at 4/1 (20%) is:
25% – 20% = 5
…and 5 being the number of thousands of pounds in the bank (T)
Therefore 5 X 5 = 25
Plus the result of:
5 thousands divided by 5 = 1
That 1 X my idea of the percentage chance of winning 25 = 25
So…
25 + 25 = 50
£50 staked @ 4/1 Returning £250 and £200 Profit.

For a betting bank of £7,000 the same 25% chance available at 4/1 (20%) is:
25% – 20% = 5
…and 7 being the number of thousands in the bank
Therefore 5 X 7 = 35
Plus the result of:
7 thousands divided by 5 = 1.4
That 1.4 X 25 = 35
So…
35 + 35 = 70
£70 staked @ 4/1 Returning £350 and £280 Profit

For a betting bank of £10,000 the same 25% chance available at 4/1 (20%) is:
25 – 20 = 5
10 being the number of thousands
5 X 10 = 50
Plus
10 ‘/, 5 = 2
2 X 25 = 50
50 + 50 = 100
£100 staked @ 4/1 Returning £500 and £400 profit.

For a betting bank of £15,000 the same 25% chance available at 4/1 (20%) is:
25 – 20 = 5
15 being the number of thousands
5 X 15 = 75
Plus
15 ‘/, 5 = 3
3 X 25 = 75
75 + 75 = 150
£150 staked @ 4/1 Returning £750 and £600 profit

For a betting bank of £20,000 the same 25% chance available at 4/1 is:
25 – 20 = 5
5 X 20 = 100
Plus
20 ‘/, 5 = 4
4 X 25 = 100
100 + 100 = 200
£200 staked @ 4/1 Returning £1000 and £800 profit

For a betting bank of £25,000 the same 25% chance available at 4/1 is:
25 – 20 = 5
5 X 25 = 125
Plus
25 ‘/, 5 = 5
5 X 25 = 125
125 + 125 = 250
£250 staked @ 4/1 Returns £1250 and £1000 Profit.

For a betting bank of £30,000 the same 25% chance available at 4/1 is:
25 – 20 = 5
5 X 30 = 150
Plus
30 ‘/, 5 = 6
6 X 25 = 150
150 + 150 = 300
£300 staked @ 4/1 Returns £1500 and £1200 Profit.

etc

Value Is Everything
#1565094

Interesting. Good stuff

Rarely i back a horse to win nowadays

However the distances are my speciality

This year. I am convinced the best two jockeys around are called Doyle👍👍

Still the jumps are here now so its all guns blazing

My max bet is 10 pc of bank

My normal bet is about 2 pc

#1565273

Welcome back and good luck with the jumps season, Ricky. Value Is Everything
#1565281

Here are a few other stakes from my staking plan:
A reminder of my strategy:

In my opinion the more chance a horse has, the more money should be staked.
The more value in a bet the more money should be staked…
However, also the fact less money is risked on outsiders should also be rewarded by greater profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 50% chance available at 11/10 (47.6%) is:
50% – 47.6% = 2.4
2.4 X 10 = 24
2 X 50 = 100
24 + 100 = 124
£124 staked @ 11/10 Returns £260.40 and £136.40 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 50% chance available at 5/4 (44.4%) is:
50 – 44.4 = 5.6
5.6 X 10 = 56
2 X 50 = 100
56 + 100 = 156
£156 staked @ 5/4 Returns £351 and £195 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 50% chance available at 6/4 (40%) is:
50 – 40 = 10
10 X 10 = 100
2 X 50 = 100
100 + 100 = 200
£200 staked @ 6/4 Returns £500 and £300 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 50% chance available at 7/4 (36.4%) is:
50 – 36.4 = 13.6
13.6 X 10 = 136
2 X 50 = 100
136 + 100 = 236
£236 staked @ 7/4 Returns £649 and £413 Profit.

………………………………………….
From the bets above you can see how the stakes and profit go up with value in the bet.
………………………………………….

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 40% chance available at 7/4 (36.4) is:
40 – 36.4 = 3.6
3.6 X 10 = 36
2 X 40 = 80
36 + 80 = 116
£116 staked @ 7/4 Returns £319 and £203 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 40% chance available at 2/1 (33.3) is:
40 – 33.3 = 6.7
6.7 X 10 = 67
2 X 40 = 80
67 + 80 = 147
£147 staked @ 2/1 Returns £441 and £294 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 40% chance available at 9/4 (30.8) is:
40 – 30.8 = 9.2
9.2 X 10 = 92
2 X 40 = 80
92 + 80 = 172
£172 staked @ 9/4 Returns £559 and £387 Profit.

………………………………………..

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 35% chance available at 85/40 (32%) is:
35 – 32 = 3
3 X 10 = 30
2 X 35 = 70
30 + 70 = 100
£100 staked @ 85/40 Returns £312.5 and £212.5 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 35% chance available at 5/2 (28.6%) is:
35 – 28.6 = 6.4
6.4 X 10 = 64
2 X 35 = 70
64 + 70 = 134
£134 staked @ 5/2 Returns £469 and £335 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 35% chance available at 3/1 (25%) is:
35 – 25 = 10
10 X 10 = 100
2 X 35 = 70
100 + 70 = 170
£170 staked @ 3/1 Returns £680 and £510 Profit.

………………………………………..

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 30% chance available at 11/4 (26.7%) is:
30 – 26.7 = 3.3
3.3 X 10 = 33
2 X 30 = 60
33 + 60 = 93
£93 staked @ 11/4 Returns £348.75 and £255.75 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 30% chance available at 100/30 (23.1%) is
30 – 23.1 = 6.9
6.9 X 10 = 69
2 X 30 = 60
69 + 60 = 129
£129 staked @ 100/30 Returns £559 and £430 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 30% chance available at 4/1 (20%) is:
30 – 20 = 10
10 X 10 = 100
2 X 30 = 60
100 + 60 = 160
£160 staked @ 4/1 Returns £800 and £640 Profit.

………………………………………..

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 25% chance available at 7/2 (22.2%) is:
25 – 22.2 = 2.8
2.8 X 10 = 28
2 X 25 = 50
28 + 50 = 78
£78 staked @ 7/2 Returns £351 and £273 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 25% chance available at 9/2 (18.2%) is:
25 – 18.2 = 6.8
6.8 X 10 = 68
2 X 25 = 50
68 + 50 = 118
£118 staked @ 9/2 Returns £649 and £531 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 25% chance available at 11/2 (15.4%) is:
25 – 15.4 = 9.6
9.6 X 10 = 96
2 X 25 = 50
96 + 50 = 146
£146 staked @ 11/2 Returns £949 and £803 Profit.

…………………………………………

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 20% chance available at 5/1 (16.7%) is:
20 – 16.7 = 3.3
3.3 X 10 = 33
2 X 20 = 40
33 + 40 = 73
£73 staked @ 5/1 Returns £438 and £365 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 20% chance available at 6/1 (14.3%) is:
20 – 14.3 = 5.7
5.7 X 10 = 57
2 X 20 = 40
57 + 40 = 97
£97 staked @ 6/1 Returns £679 and £582 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 20% chance available at 7/1 (12.5%) is:
20 – 12.5 = 7.5
7.5 X 10 = 75
2 X 20 = 40
75 + 40 = 115
£115 staked @ 7/1 Returns £920 and £805 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 20% chance available at 8/1 (11.1%) is:
20 – 11.1 = 8.9
8.9 X 10 = 89
2 X 20 = 40
89 + 40 = 129
£129 staked @ 8/1 Returns £1161 and £1032 Profit.

………………………………………….

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 15% chance available at 13/2 (13.3%) is:
15 – 13.3 = 1.8
1.8 X 10 = 18
2 X 15 = 30
18 + 30 = 48
£48 staked @ 13/2 Returns £360 and £312 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 15% chance available at 17/2 (10.5%) is:
15 – 10.5 = 4.5
4.5 X 10 = 45
2 X 15 = 30
45 + 30 = 75
£75 staked @ 17/2 Returns £712.5 and £637.5 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 15% chance available at 10/1 (9.1%) is:
15 – 9.1 = 5.9
5.9 X 10 = 59
2 X 15 = 30
59 + 30 = 89
£89 staked @ 10/1 Returns £979 and £890 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 15% chance available at 12/1 (7.7%) is:
15 – 7.7 = 7.3
7.3 X 10 = 73
2 X 15 = 30
73 + 30 = 103
£103 staked @ 12/1 Returns £1339 and £1236 Profit.

…………………………………………..

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 10% chance available at 11/1 (8.3%) is:
10 – 8.3 = 1.7
1.7 X 10 = 17
2 X 10 = 20
17 + 20 = 37
£37 staked @ 11/1 Returns £444 and £407 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 10% chance available at 13/1 (7.1%) is:
10 – 7.1 = 2.9
2.9 X 10 = 29
2 X 10 = 20
29 + 20 = 49
£49 staked @ 13/1 Returns £686 and £637 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 10% chance available at 15/1 (6.25%) is:
10 – 6.2 = 3.8
3.8 X 10 = 38
2 X 10 = 20
38 + 20 = 58
£58 staked @ 15/1 Returns £928 and £870 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 10% chance available at 18/1 (5.3%) is:
10 – 5.3 = 5.7
5.7 X 10 = 57
2 X 10 = 20
57 + 20 = 77
£77 staked @ 18/1 Returns £1463 and £1386 Profit.

………………………………………….

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 5% chance available at 25/1 (3.8%) is:
5 – 3.8 = 1.2
1.2 X 10 = 12
2 X 5 = 10
12 + 10 = 22
£22 staked @ 25/1 Returns £572 and £550 profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 5% chance available at 33/1 (2.9%) is:
5 – 2.9 = 2.1
2.1 X 10 = 21
2 X 5 = 10
21 + 10 = 31
£31 staked @ 33/1 Returns £1054 and £1023 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 5% chance available at 50/1 (2%) is:
5 – 2 = 3
3 X 10 = 30
2 X 5 = 10
30 + 10 = 40
£40 staked @ 50/1 Returns £2040 and £2000 Profit.

………………………………………….

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 3% chance available at 50/1 (2%) is:
3 – 2 = 1
1 X 10 = 10
2 X 3 = 6
10 + 6 = 16
£16 staked @ 50/1 Returns £816 and £800 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 3% chance available at 80/1 (1.2%) is:
3 – 1.2 = 1.8
1.8 X 10 = 18
2 X 3 = 6
18 + 6 = 24
£24 staked @ 80/1 Returns £1944 and £1920 Profit.

………………………………………….

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 2% chance available @ 80/1 (1.2%) is:
2 – 1.2 = 0.8
0.8 X 10 = 8
2 X 2 = 4
8 + 4 = 12
£12 staked @ 80/1 Returns £972 and £960 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 2% chance available @ 125/1 (0.8%) is:
2 – 0.8 = 1.2
1.2 X 10 = 12
2 X 2 = 4
12 + 4 = 16
£16 staked @ 125/1 Returns £2016 and £2000 Profit.

…………………………………………..

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 1.5% chance available at 100/1 (1%) is
1.5 – 1 = 0.5
0.5 X 10 = 5
2 X 1.5 = 3
5 + 3 = 8
£8 staked @ 100/1 Returns £900 and £800 Profit

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 1.5% chance available at 125/1 (0.8%) is:
1.5 – 0.8 = 0.7
0.7 X 10 = 7
2 X 1.5 = 3
7 + 3 = 10
£10 staked @ 125/1 Returns £1260 and £1250 Profit.

…………………………………………..

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 1% chance available at 200/1 (0.5%) is:
1 – 0.5 = 0.5
0.5 X 10 = 5
2 X 1 = 2
5 + 2 = 7
£7 staked @ 200/1 Returns £1407 and £1400 Profit.

For a betting bank of £10,000 a 1% chance available at 500/1 (0.2%)
1 – 0.2 = 0.8
0.8 X 10 = 8
2 X 1 = 2
8 + 2 = 10
£10 staked @ 500/1 Returns £5010 and £5000 Profit.

Value Is Everything
#1567097

Interesting stuff as ever Ginger.

Even in my younger more serious betting days, which are too far gone for me to remember, I couldn’t have had the patience for such a method. It’s good to see how you approach it.

#1567113

How did you stake in your more serious betting days, buckers?

When first starting to bet I bet same stakes every bet but found overall profit depended on solely my outsiders. Winning a hell of a lot more when outsiders won compared to medium and shorter odds bets.

So I changed and instead bet to win the same amount, but then found overall profit depended on solely my shorter odds bets. Because of losing a hell of a lot more when shorter priced horses lost.

Then tried returning the same amount, which was better – staking more on the shorter priced horses yet winning more on outsiders. eg £100 on an Even money shot, £!8.18 on a 10/1 shot, etc. But the gap in profit still wasn’t what I wanted.

When Rooster Booster won the Greatwood Hurdle under top weight, with a performance I immediately thought should make him a 20% fair 4/1 chance of winning the Champion Hurdle in March. I was amazed when Stan James offered 12/1 Had my usual bet at 12’s, put the phone down and immediately thought this type of value doesn’t come along often. So picked up the phone and had another chunk on… Few days later my Timeform Perspective came which said Rooster Booster’s performance would’ve been good enough to win three of the last four Champion Hurdles. 12/1 had long gone but went in again at 8/1…

Whole point of Rooster Booster was what massive value I considered him to be, illustrating how stakes (and therefore profit) should be higher the greater value is thought to be in the bet… As well as still allowing for what is considered its chance of winning.

Value Is Everything
#1567548

Ginger, my more serious betting days were a long time ago. I’m sad to say that a big win would be £50 for me, that tells you how long ago it was + this would always be on course. More often than not York, Doncaster or Newcastle. Great days they were for me. I didn’t ever have an exact staking plan, I just wanted as we used to say the 50 notes.

The only sign of a staking plan that mirrors you would be that as often as I could I would bet each horse to win the same amount of money.

#1571341

Is your betting plan similar to Kelly, Ginge? Logically your staking plan makes sense, stronger the chance and more value the stronger the bet.

While I apply probabilities to all my bets, I have never been quite so comfortable with kelly. While I trust my prices I have to remember that it is an approximation. Kelly falls down for me in that I can price something 2/1 for a standard handicap say, and I will consider it a good chance, but I will find 2/1 shots I prefer to bet more strongly.

My bet plan is broken down simply to 100 points, I bet 1-4 points depending on price and value, so I am applying similar to you in that regard, Ginge. Generally if I price something 5/2 under I consider it a 2pt start bet and consider more on top. For a few occasions of the year I am prepared to risk 10% of my bank, the last one for me that was this was Baaeed.

A good way of growing your bank mind, Mark, is a progressive staking plan. When I first started growing my bet funds going forward, every time I was above my highest point I would re-adjust the point, it allows the bank to grow that bit quicker. So say you have 10k, you lose 500 but keep at £100 a bet unless you lose so much, but as soon as you are over 10k you move your stake so if you jump to 10.5k you would adjust your stake to £105 allowing you to always bet a little bit bigger each time and make extra gains.

I suppose there are many ways to stake, but managing a bank and staking plan is crucial.

#1575569

Sorry haven’t replied sooner tb, haven’t looked in to this part of late.

Yes, although I came up with the first version of this stronger chance / more value staking plan before I’d heard of Kelly, it does have many of Kelly’s principles.

Have since looked at Kelly but to my way of thinking the chances of going broke and / or losing a lot in a short time seem too high. Although appreciate you can do 1/2 or 1/4 or even 1/10th Kelly.

Yes, there are many ways to stake, but imo any successful staking plan needs similar principles. Your way of progressive staking also seems along the same line of thinking. Personally I like to have more than 1 to 4 (may be I need more because of a wider range of prices) but can certainly see your logic. Value Is Everything
#1575774

No problem, Ginge.

I remember loosely your staking plan from the past, it certainly seems to work for you.

I have staked using Kelly and like you say can do 1/2 kelly 1/4 kelly etc to mitigate a bit of risk.

Staking is certainly something to examine closely as it is crucial, so thank you for explaining your method.

I have a simple kelly criterion calculator in a spreadsheet if anyone wants it.

TB

#1671374

As I said on the OP, imo a staking plan should be about three things
:
1) Probability of winning in percentage terms. More chance of winning the more money staked.
2) How much value I believe is in the bet. The more value the more money staked.
3) Size of my betting bank. The more money I’ve got the more money is staked
Well, four… The fact I am naturally cautious.

So I’ve got an update to my Staking Plan to fully take into account the size of the betting bank:

STAKING PLAN:
My opinion of the horse’s percentage chance of winning…
Minus the available odds in percentage terms…
Times that figure by 10…
Plus my opinion of the horse’s percentage chance of winning…
Times (Number of thousands of pounds in the betting bank divided by 10)

The last line means:
For a betting Bank of £10,000 because there are 10 thousands, 10 divided by 10 = 1. Therefore it’’s x 1.
For a betting bank of £11,000 it is 11, ‘/, 10 = 1.1 therefore x 1.1.
For £12,000 it’s x 1.2
For £7,000 it’s x 0.7 etc.

Value Is Everything
#1671375

Here are some examples:

So with a betting bank of £10,000 something I believe has a 60% chance of winning that is available @ 4\5 would be:
4/6 = 60% and 4\5 = 55.6%
60 – 55.6 = 4.4
4.4 x 10 = 44
44 + 60 = 104
£104 @ 4\5 Returns £187:20 and Profit £83:20
If only £1,000 in the betting bank 104 x 0.1 = 10.40 stake..
If £100,000 bank it would be 104 x 10 = £1,040 stake.

If a bit better value… With a £10,000 betting bank something I believe is a 60% chance available @ 5\6 would be:
4/6 = 60% and 5\6 = 54.5%
60 – 54.5 = 5.5
5.5 x 10 = 55
55 + 60 = 115
£115 @ 5\6 Returns £210:83 and Profit £95:83
If only £2,000 in the betting bank 115 x 0.2 = £23 stake.
If £80,000 bank it would be 115 x 8 = £920 stake.

And a bit better:
4/6 = 60% and 10/11 = 52.4%
60 – 52.4 = 7.6
7.6 x 10 = 76
76 + 60 = 136
£136 @ 10/11 Returns £259:64 and Profit £123:64
If £3,000 in the betting bank 136 x 0.3 = 40:80 stake.
If £70,000 bank 136 x 7 = £952 stake.

4/6 60% 20/21 51.2%
60 – 51.2 = 8.8
8.8 x 10 = 88
88 + 60 = 148
£148 @ 20/21 Returns £288:95 and Profit £140:95
If £4,000 in the betting bank 148 x 0.4 = 59.20 stake.
If £60,000 bank 148 x 6 = £888 stake.

4/6 60% Evens 50%
60 – 50 = 10
10 x 10 = 100
100 + 60 = 160
£160 @ Evens Returns £320:00 and Profit £160:00
If £5,000 in the betting bank 160 x 0.5 = £80 stake.
If £50,000 bank 160 x 5 = £800 stake.

Evens 50% 11/10 47.6%
50 – 47.6 = 2.4
2.4 x 10 = 24
24 + 50 = 74
£74 @ 11/10 Returns £155:40 and Profit £81.40
If £6,000 in betting bank 74 x 0.6 = 44.40 stake.
If £40,000 bank 74 x 4 = £296 stake.

Evens 50% 6/5 45.5%
50 – 45.5 = 4.5
4.5 x 10 = 45
45 + 50 = 95
£95 @ 6/5 Returns £209:00 and Profit £114:00
If £7,000 in betting bank 95 x 0.7 = 66.50 stake.
If £30,000 bank 95 x 3 = £285 stake.

Evens 50% 5/4 44.4%
50 – 44.4 = 5.6
5.6 x 10 = 56
56 + 50 = 106
£106 @ 5/4 Returns £238:50 and Profit £132:50
If £8,000 in betting bank 106 x 0.8 = 84.80 stake.
If £20,000 bank 106 x 2 = £212 stake.

Evens 50% 11/8 42.1%
50 – 42.1 = 7.9
7.9 x 10 = 79
79 + 50 = 129
£129 @ 11/8 Returns £306:38 and Profit £177:38
If £9,000 in betting bank 129 x 0.9 = 116.10 stake.

Evens 50% 6/4 40%
50 – 40 = 10
10 x 10 = 100
100 + 50 = 150
£150 @ 6/4 Returns £375:00 and Profit £225:00

6/4 40% 7/4 36.7%
40 – 36.7 = 3.3
3.3 x 10 = 33
33 + 40 = 73
£73 @ 7/4 Returns £200:75 and Profit £127:75

6/4 40% 15/8 34.8%
40 – 34.8 = 5.2
5.2 x 10 = 52
52 + 40 = 92
£92 @ 15/8 Returns £264:50 and Profit £172:50

6/4 40% 2/1 33.3%
40 – 33.3 = 6.7
6.7 x 10 = 67
67 + 40 = 107
£107 @ 2/1 Returns £321:00 and Profit £214:00

6/4 40% 85/40 32%
40 – 32 = 8
8 x 10 = 80
80 + 40 = 120
£120 @ 85/40 Returns £375:00 and Profit £255:00

6/4 40% 9/4 30.8%
40 – 30.8 = 9.2
9.2 x 10 = 92
92 + 40 = 132
£132 @ 9/4 Returns £429:00 and Profit £297:00

6/4 40% 5/2 28.6%
40 – 28.6 = 11.4
11.4 x 10 = 114
114 + 40 = 154
£154 @ 5/2 Returns £539:00 and Profit £385:00

9/4 30.8% 11/4 26.7%
30.8 – 26.7 = 4.1
4.1 x 10 = 41
41 + 31 = 72
£72 @ 11/4 Returns £270:00 and Profit £198:00

9/4 30.8% 3/1 25%
30.8 – 25 = 5.8
5.8 x 10 = 58
58 + 31 = 89
£89 @ 3/1 Returns £356:00 and Profit £267:00

9/4 30.8% 100/30 23.1%
30.8 – 23.1 = 7.7
7.7 x 10 = 77
77 + 31 = 108
£108 @ 100/30 Returns £468:00 and Profit £360:00

9/4 30.8% 7/2 22.2%
30.8 – 22.2 = 8.6
8.6 x 10 = 86
86 + 31 = 117
£117 @ 7/2 Returns £526:50 and Profit £409:50

9/4 30.8% 4/1 20%
30.8 – 20 = 10.8
10.8 x 10 = 108
108 + 31 = 139
£139 @ 4/1 Returns £695:00 and Profit £556:00

3/1 25% 7/2 22.2%
25 – 22.2 = 2.8
2.8 x 10 = 28
28 + 25 = 53
£53 @ 7/2 Returns £238:50 and Profit £185:50

3/1 25% 4/1 20%
25 – 20 = 5
5 x 10 = 50
50 + 25 = 75
£75 @ 4/1 Returns £375:00 and Profit £300:00

3/1 25% 9/2 18.2%
25 – 18.2 = 6.8
6.8 x 10 = 68
68 + 25 = 93
£93 @ 9/2 Returns £511:50 and Profit £418:50

3/1 25% 5/1 16.7%
25 – 16.7 = 8.3
8.3 x 10 = 83
83 + 25 = 108
£108 @ 5/1 Returns £648:00 and Profit £540:00

3/1 25% 11/2 15.4%
25 – 15.4 = 9.6
9.6 x 10 = 96
96 + 25 = 121
£121 @ 11/2 Returns £786:50 and Profit £665:50

3/1 25% 6/1 14.3%
25 – 14.3 = 10.7
10.7 x 10 = 107
107 + 25 = 132
£132 @ 6/1 Returns £924:00 and Profit £792:00

4/1 20% 5/1 16.7%
20 – 16.7 = 3.3
3.3 x 10 = 33
33 + 20 = 53
£53 @ 5/1 Returns £318:00 and Profit £265:00

4/1 20% 11/2 15.4%
20 – 15.4 = 4.6
4.6 x 10 = 46
46 + 20 = 66
£66 @ 11/2 Returns £429:00 and Profit £363:00

4/1 20% 6/1 14.3%
20 – 14.3 = 5.7
5.7 x 10 = 57
57 + 20 = 77
£77 @ 6/1 Returns £539:00 and Profit £462:00

4/1 20% 13/2 13.3%
20 – 13.3 = 6.7
6.7 x 10 = 67
67 + 20 = 87
£87 @ 13/2 Returns £652:50 and Profit £565:50

4/1 20% 7/1 12.5%
20 – 12.7 = 7.3
7.3 x 10 = 73
73 + 20 = 93
£93 @ 7/1 Returns £744:00 and Profit £651:00

4/1 20% 15/2 11.7%
20 – 11.7 = 8.3
8.3 x 10 = 83
83 + 20 = 103
£103 @ 15/2 Returns £875:50 and Profit £772:50

4/1 20% 8/1 11.1%
20 – 11.1 = 8.9
8.9 x 10 = 89
89 + 20 = 109
£109 @ 8/1 Returns £981:00 and Profit £872:00

4/1 20% 17/2 10.5%
20 – 10.5 = 9.5
9.5 x 10 = 95
95 + 20 = 115
£115 @ 17/2 Returns £1092:50 and Profit £977:50

4/1 20% 9/1 10%
20 – 10 = 10
10 x 10 = 100
100 + 20 = 120
£120 @ 9/1 Returns £1200:00 and Profit £1080:00

4/1 20% 12/1 7.7%
20 – 7.7 = 12.3
12.3 x 10 = 123
123 + 20 = 143
£143 @ 12/1 Returns £1859:00 and Profit £1716:00

11/2 15.4% 13/2 13.3%
15.4 – 13.3 = 2.1
2.1 x 10 = 21
21 + 15 = 36
£36 @ 13/2 Returns £270:00 and Profit £234:00

11/2 15.4% 7/1 12.5%
15.4 – 12.5 = 2.9
2.9 x 10 = 29
29 + 15 = 44
£44 @ 7/1 Returns £352:00 and Profit £308:00

11/2 15.4% 15/2 11.7%
15.4 – 11.7 = 3.7
3.7 x 10 = 37
37 + 15 = 52
£52 @ 15/2 Returns £442.00 and Profit £390.00

11/2 15.4% 8/1 11.1%
15.4 – 11.1 = 4.3
4.3 x 10 = 43
43 + 15 = 58
£58 @ 8/1 Returns £522.00 and Profit £464.00

11/2 15.4% 17/2 10.5%
15.4 – 10.5 = 4.9
4.9 x 10 = 49
49 + 15 = 64
£64 @ 17/2 Returns £608.00 and Profit £544.00

11/2 15.4% 9/1 10%
15.4 – 10 = 5.4
5.4 x 10 = 54
54 + 15 = 69
£69 @ 9/1 Returns £690.00 and Profit £621.00

11/2 15.4% 10/1 9.1%
15.4 – 9.1 = 6.3
6.3 x 10 = 63
63 + 15 = 78
£78 @ 10/1 Returns £858.00 and Profit £780.00

11/2 15.4% 11/1 8.3%
15.4 – 8.3 = 7.1
7.1 x 10 = 71
71 + 15 = 86
£86 @ 11/1 Returns £1032.00 and Profit £946.00

11/2 15.4% 12/1 7.7%
15.4 – 7.7 = 7,7
7.7 x 10 = 77
77 + 15 = 92
£92 @ 12/1 Returns £1196.00 and Profit £1104.00

11/2 15.4% 13/1 7.1%
15.4 – 7.1 = 8.3
8.3 x 10 = 83
83 + 15 = 98
£98 @ 13/1 Returns £1372.00 and Profit £1274.00

11/2 15.4% 14/1 6.7%
15.4 – 6.7 = 8.7
8.7 x 10 = 87
87 + 15 = 102
£102 @ 14/1 Returns £1530.00 and Profit £1428.00

11/2 15.4% 15/1 6.2%
15.4 – 6.2 = 9.2
9.2 x 10 = 92
92 + 15 = 107
£107 @ 15/1 Returns £1712.00 and Profit £1605.00

11/2 15.4% 16/1 5.9%
15.4 – 5.9 = 9.5
9.5 x 10 = 95
95 + 15 = 110
£110 @ 16/1 Returns £1870.00 and Profit £1760.00

11/2 15.4% 18/1 5.3%
15.4 – 5.3 = 10.1
10.1 x 10 = 101
101 + 15 = 116
£116 @ 18/1 Returns £2204.00 and Profit £2088.00

9/1 10% 11/1 8.3%
10 – 8.3 = 1.7
1.7 x 10 = 17
17 + 10 = 27
£27 @ 11/1 Returns £324.00 and Profit £297.00

9/1 10% 12/1 7.7%
10 – 7.7 = 2.3
2.3 x 10 = 23
23 + 10 = 33
£33 @ 12/1 Returns £429:00 and Profit £396:00

9/1 10% 13/1 7.1%
10 – 7.1 = 2.9
2.9 x 10 = 29
29 + 10 = 39
£39 @ 13/1 Returns £546:00 and Profit £507:00

9/1 10% 14/1 6.7%
10 – 6.7 = 3.3
3.3 x 10 = 33
33 + 10 = 43
£43 @ 14/1 Returns £645 and profit £602:00

9/1 10% 15/1 6.2%
10 – 6.2 = 3.8
3.8 x 10 = 38
38 + 10 = 48
£48 @ 15/1 Returns £768:00 and Profit £720:00

9/1 10% 16/1 5.9%
10 – 5.9 = 4.1
4.1 x 10 = 41
41 + 10 = 51
£51 @ 16/1 Returns £867:00 and Profit £816:00

9/1 10% 18/1 5.3%
10 – 5.3 = 4.7
4.7 x 10 = 47
47 + 10 = 57
£57 @ 18/1 Returns £1083:00 and Profit £1026:00

9/1 10% 20/1 4.8%
10 – 4.8 = 5.2
5.2 x 10 = 52
52 + 10 = 62
£62 @ 20/1 Returns £1302:00 and Profit £1240:00

9/1 10% 22/1 4.3%
10 – 4.3 = 5.7
5.7 x 10 = 57
57 + 10 = 67
£67 @ 22/1 Returns £1541:00 and Profit £1474:00

9/1 10% 25/1 3,8%
10 – 3.8 = 6.2
6.2 x 10 = 62
62 + 10 = 72
£72 @ 25/1 Returns £1872:00 and Profit £1800:00

9/1 10% 28/1 3.4
10 – 3.4 = 6.6
6.6 x 10 = 66
66 + 10 = 76
£76 @ 28/1 Returns £2204:00 and Profit £2128:00

9/1 10% 33/1 2.9%
10 – 2.9 = 7.1
7.1 x 10 = 71
71 + 10 = 81
£81 @ 33/1 Returns £2754:00 and Profit £2673:00

20/1 4.8% 25/1 3.8%
4.8 – 3.8 = 1
1 x 10 = 10
10 + 5 = 15
£15 @ 25/1 Returns £390:00 and Profit £375:00

20/1 4.8% 28/1 3.4%
4.8 – 3.4 = 1.4
1.4 x 10 = 14
14 + 5 = 19
£19 @ 28/1 Returns £551:00 and Profit £532:00

20/1 4.8% 33/1 2.9%
4.8 – 2.9 = 1.9
1.9 x 10 = 19
19 + 5 = 24
£24 @ 33/1 Returns £816:00 and Profit £792:00

20/1 4.8% 40/1 2.4%
4.8 – 2.4 = 2.4
2.4 x 10 = 24
24 + 5 = 29
£29 @ 40/1 Returns £1189:00 and Profit £1160:00

20/1 4.8 50/1 2%
4.8 – 2 = 2.8
2.8 x 10 = 28
28 + 5 = 33
£33 @ 50/1 Returns £1683:00 and Profit £1650:00

20/1 4.8% 66/1 1.5%
4.8 – 1.5 = 3.3
3.3 x 10 = 33
33 + 5 = 38
£38 @ 66/1 Returns £2546:00 and Profit £2508:00

20/1 4.8 80/1 1.2%
4.8 – 1.2 = 3.6
3.6 x 10 = 36
36 + 5 = 41
£41 @ 80/1 Returns £3321:00 and Profit £3280:00

20/1 4.8% 100/1 1%
4.8 – 1 = 3.8
3.8 x 10 = 38
38 + 5 = 43
£43 @ 100/1 Returns £4343:00 and Profit £4300:00

100/1 1% 200/1 0.5%
1 – 0.5 = 0.5
0.5 x 10 = 5
5 + 1 = 6
£6 @ 200/1 Returns £1206:00 and Profit £1200:00

100/1 1% 250/1 0.4%
1 – 0.4 = 0.6
0.6 x 10 = 6
6 + 1 = 7
£7 @ 250/1 Returns £1757:00 and Profit £1750:00

100/1 1% 300/1 0.3%
1 – 0.3 = 0.7
0.7 x 10 = 7
7 + 1 = 8
£8 @ 300/1 Returns £2408:00 and Profit £2,400:00

100/1 1% 400/1 0,25%
1 – 0.25 = 0.75
0.75 x 10 = 7.5
7.5 + 1 = 8.5
£9 @ 400/1 Returns £3,609:00 and Profit £3,600:00

100/1 1% 500/1 0.2%
1 – 0.2 = 0.8
0.8 x 10 = 8
8 + 1 = 9
£9 @ 500/1 Returns £4509:00 and Profit £4,500:00

100/1 1% 1000/1 0.1 %
1 – 0.1% = 0.9
0.9 x 10 = 9
9 + 1 = 10
£10 @ 1000/1 Returns £10,010:00 and Profit £10.000:00

Value Is Everything
#1671377

As many people know, I often back two or more horses to win in the same race.
If taking two particular examples from the above:
With the first example, something I believe has a 50% (fair Evens) chance and is available @ 6/4 (40%) then the difference is 10… and with a £10,000 betting bank the stake is ££150 with a return of £375.

Evens 50% 6/4 40%
50 – 40 = 10
10 x 10 = 100
100 + 50 = 150
£150 @ 6/4 Returns £375:00 and Profit £225:00

…Whereas when I believe something has a 25% (fair 3/1) chance and is available @ 4/1 (20%) then the difference is 5. So if I make two 25% 4/1 horses in the same race value, both 5% better than my assessment. So 5 + 5 = 10 better. With both available @ 4/1 means I am taking 20 x 2 = 40 (6/4) about something I believe is 25 + 25 = 50 (Evens). The same combined bet as the single 6/4.

3/1 25% 4/1 20%
25 – 20 = 5
5 x 10 = 50
50 + 25 = 75
£75 @ 4/1 Returns £375:00 and Profit £300:00

…The two bets combined means two bets of £75. So 2 x 75 = a total stake of £150. The same as the single bet @ 6/4… And the Return on that total investment is also the same £375. Just as it should be.

12.5% = 7/1 and 10% = 9/1
12.5 – 10 = 2.5
2.5 x 10 = 25
25 + 12.5 = 37.5
£37.50 @ 9/1 Returns £375:00 and Profit £337.50

It’s exactly the same with backing four 9/1 shots thought to have 12.5% chances. 4 x 12.5 = 50, 4 x 10 = 40, 4 x 2.5 = 10%, An overall £150 staked (4 x 37.50 = 150) and £375 returned if victorious.

Which suggests to me the staking plan is sound.

Value Is Everything
#1672097

“STAKING PLAN:
My opinion of the horse’s percentage chance of winning…
Minus the available odds in percentage terms…
Times that figure by 10…
Plus my opinion of the horse’s percentage chance of winning…
Times (Number of thousands of pounds in the betting bank divided by 10)”

——–

I am though toying with the idea of making it…

“Plus” TWICE “my opinion of the horse’s percentage chance of winning”…

As am not sure it currently takes sufficient notice of the the chance of winning? So if doing “TWICE” it would be:

If I had a £10,0000 betting bank…

Something I believe to have a fair 50% chance available @ 6/4.
50% = Evens and 40% = 6/4
50 – 40 = 10
10 x 10 = 100 (Times the resultant figure by 10)
50 X 2 = 100 (the NEW my opinion of the percentage chance x 2)
100 + 100 = 200 (the two added)
200 x 1 = 200 (x 1 because it’s x 0.1 for every £1000 in the betting bank 10 x 0.1 = 1)
£200 staked @ 6/4 Returns £500:00 and Profit £300:00
The NEW x 2 THICE my opinion of its chance increases the stake from £150 to £200.

If it were a betting bank of £12,0000 it would be 200 x 1.2 = £240 stake.
If a betting bank of £8,000 it’s 200 x 0.8 = £160 stake etc

With the same bank and something I believe to have a 25% chance available @ 4/1.
25% = 3/1 and 20% = 4/1
25 – 20 = 5
5 x 10 = 50
25 x 2 = 50 (NEW x 2)
50 + 50 = 100
100 x 1 = 100
£100 Staked @ 4/1 Returns £500:00 and Profit £400:00
At these prices the NEW x 2 has changed the stake from £75 to £100.

With the same bank and something I believe to have a 12.5% chance available @ 9/1.
12.5 = 7/1 and 10% = 9/1.
12.5 – 10 = 2.5
2.5 x 10 = 25
12.5 x 2 = 25 (NEW x 2)
25 + 25 = 50
£50 x 1 = £50
£50 staked @ 9/1 Returns £500:00 and Profit £450:00
At these prices the NEWx x 2 has increased the stake from £37.50 to £50.

Value Is Everything
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