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After a lose effort at some horses to follow last year, I thought I would start another thread for the upcoming flat season and also include some different pointers through out the season.
I will go back over my database in the next couple of days and pull out some interesting runners but to start I am highlighting Mostahdaf. Introduced to the racecourse last night at Newcastle for John Gosden in the Hamdam Al Maktoum colours, this three-year-old colt by Frankel looks to have come to the track with a lofty reputation going off 1/2f for his debut. A half-brother to Nazeef (2020 winner of the Falmouth and the Sun Chariot Stakes) who was also owned by Hamdam Al Maktoum and trained by John Gosden, he made a taking impression on his debut. He knew his job well, jumping to race to the fore of the chasing group with the leader clear. He moved into contention easily into two out to take up the running and quickly went clear in front inside the final two. He was only hands and heels from there to extend the advantage and ran on to the line really to win easily with plenty in hand and looks a horse with a lot of potential. He should comfortably go up to the mile like his half-sister. Frankel is proving to be effective at any distance as a sire, he has had a few five furlong winners, but in general they comfortably go from six furlongs to even the two and half mile trip.
John Gosden has been selective in introducing newcomers to the course at Newcastle since the all weather was put down, but he does so very effectively. He is 10 from 29 at 34.48% with his two-year-old debutants to a +5.49 profit since 2016, but even more interesting, with his three-year-old runners he is 6 from 12 at 50% but to -0.05 loss.
As we are coming up to the start of the flat season, it is a good time to start pulling out the database and seeing which trainers start the season well (and which don’t). I will be doing a feature on this in the near future before the season starts, but an interesting angle is for trainer Amy Murphy.
With 100+ day break runners she is 19 from 129 at a 14.73% strike rate, but importantly to a healthy +58.21 profit since 2016. In 2019 and 2020 she made a profit of +15 and +44.71 respectively and in 20201 so far, she is 3 from 4 at 75% with all four placed to a profit of +19.75 with winners at 11/4, 10/1 and 8/1 the latest at 8/1 coming just yesterday.
With the season commencing in June last term, looking at her 100+ day lay off runners, she was 4 from 18 at 22.22% but to a remarkable +51.5 profit with winners at 6/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 6/4.
So seemingly Amy Murphy gets her string very forward for a return to the racecourse and could prove a trainer of value to follow as the season begins.
Another very interesting recent newcomer for David Simcock is Man Of Riddles. He made his debut at Wolverhampton Monday night in a novice event over twelve furlongs and did well to win first time out. David Simcock is well known for bringing his horses on with running, though he does have a reasonable share of newcomers, there is always something to work on for having a run. Held up in a share of last off only an ordinary pace, Spencer was happy to be patient in rear and bring him into the race into the latter stages. He made nice ground from three out into the home turn where it opened up nicely for him and challenging well in the final furlong he took it up and despite drifting right handed in finish ran out to the line well and should only improve for it.
Now he gets interesting, he is remarkably well related. A half-brother to high class dirt performer Big Brown, whom won a Kentucky Derby and Preakness before failing to land the USA triple crown when something went amiss in the Belmont Stakes, but otherwise an imposing performer that was the best of his generation. He is also a half-brother to Afonso De Sousa originally trainer by A P O’Brien who ran up to some fair standards into the 100’s and was very effective on the all weather, though he did win on the turf.
He is very much bred for the synthetic surfaces, so it would be a query that he can prove as effective on the turf, but he no doubt has potential to improve and depending how he goes on the turf should he be sent to it, he almost certainly will prove a decent standard all weather type.
If anyone wants to chip in on this thread over the season feel free, will be interesting to see who people are following and what they think for the season.
I will keep this updated as much as I can and there will be some curve balls in here from around the world also and I will try and drop in interesting stats and angles as I go.
I was really impressed by Swiss Skydiver’s return in the Beholder Mile Stakes at Santa Anita last weekend. I backed her a couple of times last year following her from her first win at Gulfstream and proved a nice earner, though I have to admit I did not have a penny on her in the Preakness and she was so disappointing in the Distaff at the Breeders Cup where something was amiss. So it is great to see her return in the form she displayed on the weekend, and she looked to me as good as anything she did last year and potentially better and should go on and be an imposing filly in her division this season.
Ayup VTC, I’ll try pop my head in regularly will keep an eye on your columns for sure too. What runners are you looking forward to seeing out this year?
Thought I would pick a few out of my formbook at a time to pop on here, focusing on this occasion on runners I expect to see do well upped in distance that have some nice potential. I’ll add some more interesting runners through out the week but here are five to read.
Lone Eagle is a horse I really like, and I make no apologies for saying I had a good bet on him in the Zetland where I thought the step up in distance would really benefit him. He progressed with every race last term, finishing second on his debut before completing a hat trick improving with every race with his final win coming at group three level. He seems to stay well and a strong galloper he is probably ideally suited to a galloping track. A costly horse at 500,000gns, he has a fair pedigree as a first foal, by Galileo and out of the mare Modernstone, trained by William Knight, she was a mile and half winner and competed well at stakes class. He has been mooted as a Derby horse by Martyn Meade so it is likely he will start off in a trial before any decision to go that route, but he will relish tackling the mile and half this season and he has a lot of potential to improve and could prove a smart horse this term.
Gear Up finished his season on a high last year running out a group one winner in France in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud taking the step up in distance to the mile and quarter well. He gave a good impression on his debut winning well at York before returning there to win the group three Acomb stakes on his following start. He ran a peculiar race in the Royal Lodge next, he was the first one in trouble, outpaced from three out he was left behind as the front trio went on from two out before keeping on late and starting to finish his race well but all too late. Evidently the step up in distance suited him next time out when taking the Criterium de Saint-Cloud upped in distance on heavy ground and he goes into this season with potential still to improve at middle distances. It would make sense to see him start in a Dante, a course he has already won at twice and what would be a suitable distance to start his season off and he could be one to progress and land a good prize this season.
A once raced horse at the back end of the season, Sevenal shaped with a lot of encouragement in a Newmarket novice on desperate ground at seven furlongs. He went well enough to halfway but found himself a bit outpaced in the conditions from three out and still had a lot to do with a furlong to run before keeping on well in the latter stages for a running on second, beaten by a nice-looking son of Ghanaati in Mutasaabeq, who has a lot of potential. He can be expected to improve just for having had the run and for getting on a better surface never quite looking in love with the heavy ground, and there should be some improvement for stepping up in distance. His most notable sibling is Fencing, who was trained by John Gosden and in the same ownership with George Strawbridge, who managed to win a couple of times at listed level at a mile. But I think he will be seen to his best over further than that, his dam Latice was a mile and quarter winner of the group one Prix de Diane (French Oaks) and other siblings in the family have done their best over further and Sea The Stars progeny stepping up in distance is only a plus and he should be one to progress with racing and time.
Another John Gosden runner that looks one to improve with racing and for stepping up in distance is Regent. She was green as grass on her debut at Kempton down to seven furlongs, making a meal of the start and racing to the rear off a steady pace, she had no chance with the front pair how the race panned out before finishing encouragingly into third late on. On her second start, there was still signs of greenness, upped in distance to the mile, she was sluggish away before recovering to race prominently where she took a keen hold chasing the Godolphin hot pot who had an easy lead in front. It was only a steady pace throughout, but she travelled nicely and was going well into the home straight where she showed a good attitude to challenge and get on top of the long-time leader late inside the final furlong with the pair nicely clear. A nice homebred filly for Denton Stud, a Frankel filly by Approach (who was a listed mile and quarter winner) she is closely related to classy Midas Touch who was second in an Irish Derby and a St Leger for Aidan O’Brien as well as a fellow Denton Stud homebred in Coronet. A classy mare between a mile and quarter and a mile and half, she was a group one winner twice in France taking in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and the Prix Jean Romanet in the hands of John Gosden. She looks likely to fulfil her potential when she is upped in distance like her aforementioned siblings, but she will be a steady project, learning with every run so far, she may just take a bit of time to realise her potential, which she undoubtedly has.
Ocean Road looks a nice potential improver for Hugo Palmer and Qatar Racing. She was a bit green on debut early at Nottingham, slow away she found herself racing to the rear. Into the home straight she made nice headway outside of runners from three out to lead into the final two and was still challenging the eventual winner into the final furlong before tiring and not able to go on with the classy looking Noon Star (a potential Oaks filly) and she does not look a bad filly to be beaten by. That race had the shape of a good maiden and run on soft ground she may fair better for getting on a better surface, as she proved next time out when debuting on the all-weather. She won that all-weather novice comfortably, still showing signs of greenness slowly away, but having raced in rear through out she showed a good change of gear from the top of the home turn to pass runners and lead into the final furlong running on strongly going away from her rivals with plenty in hand. A half-sister to good classed Wigmore Hall, a two-time winner of the group one Northern Dancer Turf Stakes at a mile and half and effective at the mile and quarter, she looks sure to fulfil her potential when upped in distance like her sibling and being by Australia there is plenty of stamina influences to suggest she will excel for further.
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