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Le richenbourg
Well worth a Watching brief on return from
Two years on the sidelines in the john durkan
At 140. Mullins horses not all having it their own way. But what a fascinating race in prospect.
340 Punchestown
Grozni
Jody Ted
Both shown up well of the few that have run before in this flat race.
Both each wayEmir De Rots
E/w
330
UPL
Two good winners and an each way winner in sliding Rock @ 18/1.Not sure where this thread left off. IMO, the problem with form in the book depends how far you back and the likely hood of a horse returning to that form. Ultimately it is probably best to assess a horse on what it has done in it’s more recent season to determine if it will come back to form. Horses run every day, 3 or 4 in a race that are below a winning handicap mark etc but will often find themselves open to more progressive and stronger current form horses. Not that there is no merit in backing a horse on back form, it just has to be put in perspective. I would say you need to have a significant factor for that horse to run back to that form, or as an older horse catch them peaking or in peak form to suggest they can run up to their best and potentially beyond, which would be needed against a horse with more in hand.
Samphire Coast is an example today, I priced it 25/1 outsider of the field going off 22/1. He was 2lb below his best winning mark today and 1lb below his 2nd last win, I don’t think there was any indication today he was ready to exploit that mark, but he ran creditably into 3rd which is worth marking up as the stable is in desperate form. He met an unexposed 3yo and that 2lb in hand was never going to be enough. His run today may indicate he is peaking back to form, for me he will need his optimum conditions in the right race to get back to winning ways. Chelmsford and probably a drop in class meeting the right horses may see him more interesting next time out as a fair handicapped horse.
Unfortunately horses decline often as they race on each year, some keep their physical peak for some while and maintain good form, but the formbook is full of declining regressive horses that are best avoided largely.
Sorry if this been discussed, and by no means detracting from others ideas to this. Medicine Jack was a good example this year, I put up Rocky Boy Grey on here at 6s as a progressive 6f horse and backed Atlantas Boy at double figures as another progressive 6f type. I priced Medicine Jack 20/1, he opened 9/2 and ended up going off 14s and ran poorly. He was a past listed winner in 2018 and a group 2 winner as a 2yo. In 2019 he dropped 21bs without winning a contest, he has dropped a further 10lbs since joining Fell this term and is now rated 70 having not won for over 2 years. At some point this horse will win in his turn, but he has no way of ever reaching that ability again.
Hi tbracing,
Thank you for posting.
The thread left off in September with Pase Doble which won in Ireland @ 40/1 and restarted last week with Irregular Heartbeat 3rd @ 25/1 also in Ireland.
The title of the thread (form in the book) is a bit misleading.( Over recent form).
Since restating it in the last few days, I have merged it somewhat with the best aspects of the “interesting runners and riders” thread. (IRsaRs)
One of the first selections in form in the book earlier this year was Kingswell Theatre……
IRsaRs had over 30 winners and 49 successful each way selections in October and ended with an 800/1 tricast.
So in resuming this thread I am seeking the best bits of the two ideas and including handicapping, novices, maidens, bumpers jumps and flat.
I agree you cannot take a piece of form from years ago and expect it to be reproduced by a horse which is beyond doing so. I do think though that a horse can enjoy a new stable and surroundings, a fresh set of ideas to find improvement which otherwise would be unattainable.
Current form is just as welcome from relatively new horses and today’s winners provided that.
I hit the bar with a tricast today as I didn’t include one aspect of current form in making my selection.
The horse you mentioned Medicine Jack has tumbled down the weights and grades and will in time be found a race. That is the crux of it the drop in class and weight can work the oracle for certain older horses.
I follow the flat racing meetings at Dundalk and a fair few good horses re-emerge over there. The 2018 royal hunt cup winner, an Aussie Group one winner in a claimer are among the horses to score there in the last fortnight. Hopefully such horses will be popping up on this thread before too long.
There has been some good, bad and plenty of ugly on the thread and the aim now, is to be a lot more selective with more winners.
I will be focusing,more on trainers, jockey’s, markets, graded races, big handicaps,listed and group races all of which I have steered clear of up to now and the accompanying related trends as things develop.
Thank you for posting tbracing I agree with the points you make.Bumpers
This selection has very good form coming into this contest.
315 bumper
Sin A Bhfuil win.
Three taking performances brimful with promise showing staying qualities for future jumping and bags of stamina.
Plumpton 335
Sheldon e/w
A lot to like about Sheldon in two performances including a staying on third @ 50/1behind Finteur Sacre and my Darling.Watching Brief
Goodbye
Mussleburgh 1215
Evidence of promise on fourth hurdle run last time when staying on third.
Worth a watch to see if improvement continues
Lady Rocco win
Fortuitous 2nd when rival fell but competitive race and stayed on.
Worth a win chance this time, travelling over for this encounter.Bayfriars Bobby e/w1245 mussleburgh
Two good Bumper runs including when behind spider pig could see this one grab third here behind two short priced favouritesCliudea
Klopp
Quarrat
Batcha atcha
Combination tricast forecast
440 wolves2nd and third
Real Terms wolves 540
Win
Well bred Debutant related to Irish st leger winner.
Would not have to be too special to take this.
UnplacedElectrical storm wolves 6.10
Looked as if step up in trip would suit.
Watching brief
Good run 2ndWolverhampton 6.40
Beauty choice was impressive when accounting for fighting Temaraire here last time.
Fighting Irish is well treated on his best form for dunlop and can get into the mix for new yard Manton grange shouldn’t be too far away. Fighting Temaraire was coming back from a break and may be sharper now but the winner looked progressive.
Manton grange
Fighting Temaraire
Fighting Irish
Beauty choice
Combination tricast
Combination forecast
Only Beauty got into this.Kilandra 1225 Punchestown
Huge field maiden and depending on the way the race is approached, there is a small chance of a place for this one.
Small Each way
Some of these races are stopped as a spectacle when only the leading group of five take any part while the rest fiddle about at the back the Elliot and Mullin’s pair should have it between them while it will be interesting to see how Razzle Dazzle Love goes here.It was just so only a few in that one but one can be sure the rest will be front runners when the right race can be found for them.
My selection was one of those not put into the race.
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