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Rosscommon 6.40
Firstman upl
Joan of Pimlico upl
Paso Double Won @ 40/1
Jim Bolger came up trumps for GODOLPHIN when Pase Double danced home four plus lengths clear defying a ten month absence in the process. Friendless in the market, the horse went off an unconsidered 40/1 shot under Kevin Manning. The horse had built into its frame considerably in the break and did the job well.Paso Doubles story is an interesting one.
No bigger than 20/1 in the morning.
Opened at 18 hit 50s.
I’m no expert but with no on course market the industry has lost control of sp and indeed the actual market which is great to see. It is exchange driven and if you have a race reading angle or simply a different modus operandi the current system can support you.
300/1 multiple 66//1 and several 100/1 winners in Ireland support that.
In the uk 80/1 150 /1 200/1 have been the sps in the last couple of months.
Bookies may feel they have it covered and the big prices don’t brother them as the other end of the markets is where all the money is hence the 16/5 18/5 and other new odds that appeared this year. The ends of the market dont warrant their attention as no one plays them significantly enough.That is that for this thread as I think I am where I set out to be with it now.
Some nice priced horses at up to 80/1 @sp in the last couple of weeks and lots of winners culminating with yesterday @ 40/1.
Irish racing is looked down on in England. I find many aspects of handicapping much easier to fathom out than in England Scotland and Wales. The lower end racing is better too.I’ve had some fun doodling up the scenarios and will look for other areas to exploit.
It has been a blast so I will come back to this thread in the future hopefully,,,,,,
Time to return to form in the book.
I’m going to combine the best bits of interesting runners and riders. November thread broke ground for forecasts and tricasts but was disappointing for selections following a good run in October.
First selection is a real form in the book choice.
130 Clomel
Maiden hurdle
InfoConditions
A hurdle for four years old and upwards THAT AT ENTRY HAVE RUN AT LEAST THREE TIMES UNDER ANY N.H. RULES AND THAT AT DECLARATION HAVE NOT BEEN PLACED FIRST, SECOND OR THIRD UNDER ANY N.H. RULES OR RULES OF RACING
Weights – 4-y-o 11st 11lbs 5-y-o and up 12st Mares allowed 7lbs
Funny old rules as my choice has a winning point to point and a 2nd in points to a very classy mare Champagne Beauty.
IRREGULAR HEARTBEAT Each way
Three runs under rules waited with and pulled up after making late ground. Finished in races against good types including winning selection Saycee gold. Possible chance here then with that profile. IR has the minimum three qualifying runs backed up by those two points runs (a win and runner up) So win or lose is plotted up for this race.Gulshanigans each way
1.45
Wincanton
Well treated on old form if retaining ability from days with Nigel t.d. ran well on debut behind rythm is a dancer pulled up last time out. Very few of the shorter priced ones here have the distance.
Irregular heartbeat 66s into 25/1 third.Clomel 230
Dallons de Picton looks a danger to all here and Gordon Elliott loves to take on Willie Mullins.
Small field hurdles don’t appeal greatly
Burrows saint runs without rachel Blackmore and that is a negative on seasonal reappearance. Scapeta has course and distance and on balance the race is best watched.
Crack On Corrie clomel 3pm
Looks to have been found a chance to regain the winning thread after a string of placed runs. WinCrack On Corrie clearly attracted pro money late on and won with plenty in hand there. A good resumption of form in the book with the big each way selection earlier .
330 clomel
Sure to get the trip and sure to love the ground .
A small each way on MR BERCOW to finish the card here at clomel.
UNPLACED6pm chelmsford
Lord Riddiford
Tropics
Lomu
Deputise
Alsvinder
Small Combination tricastThey are drawn in the first five stalls and a case can be made for all of these.
Alsvinder of bottom weight has won off much higher marks here. The selections ignore the presence of flat racings royal couple tom and Hollie which may prove foolhardy given their form. LR Carries a penalty
4 in the first six, but only 2 in the first three places.Chelmsford 7pm
Laclan each way
Lowest drawn lowest weighted horse in the race
UNPLACED
But a good resumption for the thread which focuses on past form generally.
Left off with a 40/1 winner in Ireland in September and came back today with a 25/1 plot horse in Ireland (again)IRREGULAR HEARTBEAT backed in from 66/1 placed in third.
Crack on Corrie obliged in fine style too at Clomel. I put out a negative about Willie Mullins short price shot Burrows Saint and he was duly turned over too.
Not so good at Chelmsford tonight and I look forward to Wolves again which is a happy hunting ground for tricasts.Unusually I have started early on trying to solve a sprinting conundrum.
Dundalk 4pm
There are a host of runners who could take a hand here and for me this contest revolves around two inform speedsters who bring a number of form lines to the table.
Several factors come into play including market moves and defections. Even the weather makes a difference. There are horses trying the surface for the first time, some stepping down in trip.
First advice e/w
Take the 40/1
Still on offer from bet 365
Musical Rue
Lough Cutra Dandy spirit and Too hard to Hold are the three to add in seeking to land the tricast.
LC hasn’t won a race yet and is gelded and dropped massively in trip for this all weather debut for new yard. He is of interest having beaten into third place,none other than Tiger Moth in a maiden fto.
A final decision on the line up for a combination will be made closer to the off with consideration given to any more defections and market moves so there may well be 1 more horse to add. Decision time 3.15 pmPUPPET WARRIOR each way.
1.40
SEDGEFIELD
I’ve checked out the chase form for this one and found a good fourth place back in time off a much higher mark than today. Tabitha Worsley claims 5lb steps up markedly in trip.Exeter 2.05
Two attempts
Trifecta
1st The Big Breakaway
2nd Bold plan
3rd FierenzoTrifecta
1 The Big Breakaway
2 Bold plan
3 Gibb hill
Big Breakaway not fluent over fences today
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