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Oviously Flintshire doesn’t have HK form but he was well regarded over here, and Willie Casals made him fight anyway.
Just shows the value that is available in the UK when the bookies still underestimate the value of Hong Kong form. For example, Flintshire available at 2/1 in at times, Able Friend at evens and better, Designs at 4/1 at times and Aerovelocity at 6/1 in places. Big prices available locally for most of the invaders. The locals seem to do very well at this meeting as has been apparent with the results over the past years, maybe the trainers and conditions are better over here though travelling must take its toll on the invaders. Well done Andre Atzeni for winning the 6th race on 10/1 shot Let Me Go.
Hats off to Ryan Moore (yet again) for getting me out of trouble at Happy Valley last night on 14/1 winner Amazingly, he really is the best, though the Jap Fukunaga isnt that bad either.
Selections for Sunday
Vase: Flintshire
Sprint: Buffering
Mile: Fiero
Cup: Designs On RomeGood Luck (you will need it)
My favorite meeting of the year, though general quality seems to be decreasing as has been mentioned in the Weekender. Anyway I will still be going as I have a lot of respect for the HKJC and the way that the racing is run over there. I do believe that this sort of racing offers some great value, when I am in the UK I use Racebets to bet on foreign racing at local odds, they are based in Malta, I dont know what their relationship with the racing industry is, but they seem ok to me. The HKJC website is great and the International Races sister site apparently is going to show the races live this year.
The Cup
I believe that this race is between Designs On Rome and Military Attack. Designs On Rome appears to be coming back to form and should give a good account in the Cup. Military Attack has hit form pretty quickly this year, probably due to the change in trainer. The 2014 QEII finish was between these two and there wasnt much in it. At the time of writing they are each available with UK bookies at 4/1 which is good value, so I will probably invest in both of them, though if I had to make a choice it would be for Designs On Rome.
The Vase
I fully expect Flintshire to win this race, given he travels over well. He is just about value at 2/1 which is currently available with a couple of UK bookmakers. I have Snow Sky and Red Cadeaux both priced at 6/1 which is more or less what they are currently priced at. I think however that Snow Sky may be a double figure price on the day in Hong Kong, so I will wait for the day and back him then, though I think that Flintshire is worth a bet at 2/1 now.
The Mile
The most likely winner is Able Friend, the best price available at the time of writing with UK bookmakers is 5/4 against, he will surely be odds on on the day of the race with the local betting. Of the remainder I have respect for Ambitious Dragon especially with Ryan Moore in the saddle, he is available at 12/1 currently with UK bookmakers which is good value in my book, I would expect around 6/1 locally on the day. Also the Japanese horse Fiero is of interest, currently available at 14/1 with UK bookmakers, I am not sure what price he will start at locally as this depends on the level of Japanese support, I believe that he is a 6/1 shot but will very likely start at double figures locally. A difficult race to be sure about, so I would suggest a small investment on Ambitious Dragon and Fiero at UK odds, though if I had to make a choice it would be for an upset on Fiero.
The Sprint
This is the most difficult of the International races to weigh up, many of the runners could put their best foot forward and spring a surprise. Lucky Nine is a consistent Hong Kong sprinter, though he was well beaten in this last year and can occasionally put in a poor run. The Japanese have a strong hand, but none of their runners really take the eye. The Hong Kong pretenders include Peniaphobia and Aerovelocity who both could improve to this class. The one horse that I really think will take all the beating is the Australian sprinter Buffering, he has been on the go for a few years now but has been really consistent at top class in Australia, so he is my selection. Currently available at 10/1 in the UK and may well be better in Hong Kong on the day.
Well, as far as I am concerned, its the Arc is the best middle distance race of the year, so for a middle distance horse to be classed as great, the Arc should be on his/her CV.
I was impressed. I sort of expected him to get beat, not being a great fan of JOB but couldnt really pick anything to beat him. I do hope and expect that he stays in training next year. He must go for the Arc this year, and win it, otherwise he is just good, but definitely not great.
I was a bit puzzled regarding the connections until I read this article https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/meet-mystery-part-owner-coolmores-dual-derby-winner-australia
Click on the Ascot link to view the current going map
http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html
Pretty disappointing IMO.
The Prix Cleopatra is on Youtube, seach for Shamkala.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ov7ZL0wyVg
Shamkala
runs today in France. Seems like they could be thinking more about The Oaks contrary to their original statement that they would probably go for the Saint-Alary then the Diane. Still 16/1 in a couple of places for The Oaks which I think may be worth a small interest, though far from guaranteed to run.
Nathan,
Shamkala 2014 debut is included in this YouTube video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6akyKCBFby4
I also have backed for the French Oaks with Racebets @ 4/1
The current view is that Shamkala will go for the Prix Diane, but she is quoted at 14/1 for the Oaks which I think she could win easily. She won her 2014 debut very easily (albeit in a conditions race) check it out on YouTube (look at the trainer interview). I think that she is potentially a champion and have had a speculative bet on the Arc for which she is currently quoted at 25/1.
My main fancy currently is
Fascinating Rock
who is being given a significant amount of racing experience by Dermot Weld. He has been supplemented for the Derby and given a decent performance in the Derrinstown Derby Trial will surely shorten in price (currently available at 20/1). Having said that I was pretty impressed with
Orchestra
at Chester, and if Ryan Moore takes the ride I will be having a saver on him.
Ryan Moore quite keen on War Command https://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/ryan-moore/weekend-rides/ryan-moore-my-views-on-war-command-and-the-2000-guineas-competition-020514-368.html
To my mind, this has turned into an impossible race to resolve with any confidence, so I am going to go for a long shot. I do like Vorda as she showed great form a few times last year, but am really worried about her ability to stay the mile. The horse that she beat in the Cheveley Park, Princess Noor, has a decent chance. She was put away after that race, and there dont seem any stamina doubts like Vorda and one or two others, plus she is currently trading at 33/1 which is my kind of price.
I am finding this quite a difficult race to figure out. I cant go for
Kingman
as he is too short (6/4 for a 3/1 shot). I am also inclined to discard the other top rated runner,
Toormore
, even though his price (8/1 for a 3/1 shot) represents good value. His form compared with The Grey Gatsby and Outstrip doesnt seem that good, in fact I cant see much between him and Outstrip who is currently quoted at 25/1. I always respect French runners, but the Djebel was a bunch finish, they cant all be classic winners, so I am inclined to pass them over.
Kingston Hill
has got to be better over further having won the Racing Post on soft.
Australia
is too short (3/1 for a 6/1 shot), I have utmost respect for connections, but I am a bit suspect about the statement that he is the best horse that APOB has trained. So I am currently favouring
War Command,
he has the beating of
Outstrip
, they both would be suited by the GF ground, preferably faster, but not much chance of that, he has the best jockey in Ryan Moore and his odds just about represent value (9/1 for a 6/1 shot)
A lot depends on the state of the ground, not unsurprisingly, I expect liberal use of the watering can in an attempt to ensure good ground. They will say that this is to ensure safe ground, but I suspect that it is really to ensure that Kingman runs.
At this stage I am inclined to oppose Kingman as his current odds are too short (11/10) especially as he may not run if the ground is fast (ie somebody has nicked the watering can).
Australia is just about backable IMO now (7/2), I am inclined to take a chance on him, admittedly more with hope than confidence.Greenham Views
Very impressive win by
Kingman
now deserved favorite for 2000 Gns, no value left in 2000 gns now as Kingman should win that race. There is a chance he wont run if firm ground but that is unlikely. Lets hope that he is campaigned abroad at least as a 4YO as he is special. Runner up
Night Of Thunder
ran well just unlucky that he came up against an outstanding opponent. Night Of Thunder may well run in the French 2000 Gns due to his ability to handle soft ground.
Astaire
didnt stay so presumably will go sprinting now.
