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Does anyone know what Moore will ride in the 2000 Guineas? Any of the Ballydoyle horses?
I see Frankie has got the leg up for Shifting Power so it looks like Moore will be on one of Aiden’s.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Moore’s on War Command, who I tipped up here just after his Coventry.
Definitely trying to get Kingman beat here – I appreciate that was an excellent performance in the Greenham, but I don’t think he’s invincible – so I’ve also had a small bet on Toormore. A decent price for a decent horse.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
I am finding this quite a difficult race to figure out. I cant go for
Kingman
as he is too short (6/4 for a 3/1 shot). I am also inclined to discard the other top rated runner,
Toormore
, even though his price (8/1 for a 3/1 shot) represents good value. His form compared with The Grey Gatsby and Outstrip doesnt seem that good, in fact I cant see much between him and Outstrip who is currently quoted at 25/1. I always respect French runners, but the Djebel was a bunch finish, they cant all be classic winners, so I am inclined to pass them over.
Kingston Hill
has got to be better over further having won the Racing Post on soft.
Australia
is too short (3/1 for a 6/1 shot), I have utmost respect for connections, but I am a bit suspect about the statement that he is the best horse that APOB has trained. So I am currently favouring
War Command,
he has the beating of
Outstrip
, they both would be suited by the GF ground, preferably faster, but not much chance of that, he has the best jockey in Ryan Moore and his odds just about represent value (9/1 for a 6/1 shot)
Here is a possible 1234
Kingman
Toormore
War Command
The Grey GatsbyI’m understood to believe that The Grey Gatsby can run a decent race and that be a pointer to Toormore who I am led to believe that he will also run a big race. The fav is favourite for a reason top rated with at this stage the likeliest winner – his odds of no interest though (7/4 best price with BF now). Perhaps the 3 behind him worthy of EW bets as a placed horse will cover the other 2 (to certain stakes – your option) a winner of course will come out with a profit.
A possible staking plan could be:
2pts EW Toormore – 8/1 1/4 – 6pt return place
1.5 pts EW War Command 9/1 1/4 4.875 pt return for place
.5 pts EW TGG – 100/1 1/5 – 10.5 pt return for placeClearly if none get placed a losing bet and a percentage loss if only one placed but there could be some interesting specials (PP money back on 2nd and 3rd placed horses etc). Might as well keep the powder dry now until the day unless you know/guess Kingsman does not run due to the ground. Going stick today at 14:00 is 7.6 so on the good side of g/f so unless it dries out significantly likely the fav will take his place but what if he feels that tendon maybe he won’t be in the three but stamina may not be his issue, a worthy fav but not without dangers.
Hannon is planning to run all three (Toormore, Night of Thunder and Shifting Power) according to his website.
Maybe they are planning to gang up and box in Kingman.
Not sure if you are being serious but no surprise if that is a significant part of the reasoning.
There are some jocks who would have trouble getting a run in a three horse race but you would think the more runners there are the more chance Doyle might run into trouble. Lot more pressure delivering a Guineas winner than a Greenham winner.
Kingman drawn in stall 1, Night of Thunder in 3 with Shifting Power in 11 moving over for the blockade leaving Toormore in 14 to stride clear and win by 2 lengths, job done……
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
My 100% Book for genuinely Good-firm ground:
Kingman 13/8
War Command 13/2
Australia 7/1
Toormore 7/1
Noozhoh Canaries 22/1
Kingston Hill 25/1
Outstrip 28/1
Night Of Thunder 40/1
Shifting Power 40/1
Bookrunner 50/1
Charm Spirit 50/1
Ertijaal 80/1
The Grey Gatsby 80/1
Master The World 1000/1Value Is EverythingI’m delighted that Coolmore decided to let War Command take his rightful place at Newmarket. Their attitude certainly changed post-Greenham! I was wrong to consider this renewal ‘solid, if slighty unspectacular’, and so it appears did connections!
War Command will certainly relish fast ground, but the same can’t be said for Kingman, or potentially Toormore. It should be noted that Arakan offspring often like a bit of juice in the ground.
War Command went four-from-five last season, boasting a blistering turn of foot to win the Coventry over six furlongs, and proved the undulations are nothing to fear with victory in the Dewhurst. Eight furlongs should prove his optimum trip and he looks the type to make a cracking 3YO.
Kingman could be a superstar, but a combination of the ground and undulations are a worry. It’s certainly not a kind venue for a colt with screws. There has to be a slight doubt about his participation with so many potential targets over the coming season. Connections have a tough call looming over the next twenty-four hours.
This is a wonderfully competitive and classy renewal, and certainly a race to get excited about!
Thankfully it is not a case of Kingman not acting on a firm surface, just connections are concerned about the chance of injury. However, doubt if there will be any serious debate of whether to pull him out unless there’s no "good" in the description, and that won’t happen.
Arakan’s progeny may have a better record on a soft surface Bos; but Toormore has THE archetypal top-of-the-ground action. I believe he’s is going to prove best on a sound surface. Soft ground would be a negative imo.
Value Is EverythingWar Command won the Coventry in great style but his form thereafter was nothing startling.
That Coventry race has still only thrown up one other winner from 47 runs.
I think War Command running now is more of a symptom of a lack of confidence in Australia rather than a belief in the horse himself. Let’s face it, if War Command were to win, both Joseph and Aiden would look like idiots for a) Picking the wrong ride and b) Stating that the stables beaten horse was the second best horse you had ever trained.
I find it strange that people think Kingman will be pulled out. It won’t happen.
I am certain John Gosden wants this race on his CV and he’ll probably never get a better chance. The horse won’t stay the Derby trip so we can rule that out now. Therefore he is more likely need this classic on his report card come season’s end.
I would make Kingman a 4/5 shot as I think Australia is all bluster over substance. If the guy who thinks he should be 3/1 wants to offer those odds here, I suspect he will have to remortgage the house by Sunday.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- Total Posts 764
Just re-watched Kingmans Greenham win and oh my that was more impressive than I remember, maybe I won’t have a bet in this race!
I’ve backed the Spanish horse and Shifting Power [whose price is now bigger than I backed him at] but I really like Night of Thunder, and want it to rain a lot [which doesn’t seem to be happening].
War Command won the Coventry in great style but his form thereafter was nothing startling.
That Coventry race has still only thrown up one other winner from 47 runs.
I think War Command running now is more of a symptom of a lack of confidence in Australia rather than a belief in the horse himself. Let’s face it, if War Command were to win, both Joseph and Aiden would look like idiots for a) Picking the wrong ride and b) Stating that the stables beaten horse was the second best horse you had ever trained.
There may have only been one other winner from the Coventry Stakes Steve. Normally, when so few horses subsequently win it can be said form hasn’t worked out. But the winning distance was not ordinary. We have to take in to account the winning distances of 6+ lengths and compare how far those horses were beaten subsequently.
Parbold 2nd, beaten
6
lengths by War Command.
Parbold beaten1 3/4
lengths by Toormore in Goodwood Champagne Stakes.
Parbold beaten1/2
length by Astaire in Gimcrack.
Parbold came out the best horse in the race in Free Handicap, beaten around1 1/2
lengths but giving 6 lbs to winner Shifting Power.
Sir John Hawkins 3rd, beaten a total of
6 3/4
lengths by War Command.
Sir John hawkins beaten1 1/4
lengths by Anjaal in July Stakes on next start before subsequently going wrong.
Thunder Strike 4th, beaten
7 1/4
lengths by War Command.
Thunder Strike disappointed next time at Newbury, but then beaten only2 1/2
lengths by Saayerr in Richmond. Then came out best horse at the weights in a Sales Race.
Jallota 5th, beaten
8 1/2
lengths by War Command.
Jallota beaten around1/2
length by Anjaal in July Stakes on next start.
Didn’t prove that consistent in a long 2yo campaign but…
Jallota beaten2
lengths by No Nay Never in Prix Morny, the others in front of him being Middle Park winner Vorda (2nd) and Rizeena (3rd).
Coventry runners don’t need to have won to frank the form. Some probably improved even without winning, but if we take it literally then
On "form"
… War Command would’ve been a
4 1/4
lengths winner of Goodwood’s Champagne Stakes from
Toormore
;
5 1/2
lengths winner of Gimcrack from subsequent Middle Park winner
Astaire
,
5 1/2
lengths winner of July Stakes from Anjaal,
4 3/4
lengths winner of Richmond Stakes from Saayerr and
6 1/2
lengths winner of the Group 1 Prix Morny from
No Nay Never
,
Vorda
and
Rizeena
.
I don’t believe a lot of those form lines, but even so (for me) indicates War Commnand produced an excellent performance in the Coventry once distances are considered.
I think you are right (in a way) Steve, War Command running is a "lack of confidence in Australia". imo When the 2000 Guineas looked only average Coolmore did not want to risk War Command to beat their Triple Crown hope Australia. What would they think if Australia were to finish 2nd to War Command and then win at both Epsom and Donny? However, imo not a coincidence the decision to run War Command came soon after Kingman put in a superb Greenham performance. Coolmore have wisely gone with two guns in a bid to overthrow the King.
War Command was only third choice of Team Ballydoyle in the Coventry, which suggests he shows more on the racecourse than at home.
Value Is EverythingRyan Moore quite keen on War Command https://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/ryan-moore/weekend-rides/ryan-moore-my-views-on-war-command-and-the-2000-guineas-competition-020514-368.html
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