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local trials held today over Sprint, Mile and Cup distances – races 7, 8, 9.
results and video links here:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/Meet … 41123/ST/9
Able Friend (Mile, race 8 ) impressive, while Blazing Speed (Neil Callan) edges out Military Attack (Cup, race 9)
trials in context for local horses:
…and thoughts on whether to go for the running rail:
field selections announced:
Sprint:
http://campaign.hkjc.com/en/2014-hkir/r … ction.aspxMile:
http://campaign.hkjc.com/en/2014-hkir/r … ction.aspxVase:
http://campaign.hkjc.com/en/2014-hkir/r … ction.aspxCup:
http://campaign.hkjc.com/en/2014-hkir/r … ction.aspxHK trainer Tony Millard quick to announce that Ryan Moore will ride Golden Harvest (Sprint) and Ambitious Dragon (Mile).
My favorite meeting of the year, though general quality seems to be decreasing as has been mentioned in the Weekender. Anyway I will still be going as I have a lot of respect for the HKJC and the way that the racing is run over there. I do believe that this sort of racing offers some great value, when I am in the UK I use Racebets to bet on foreign racing at local odds, they are based in Malta, I dont know what their relationship with the racing industry is, but they seem ok to me. The HKJC website is great and the International Races sister site apparently is going to show the races live this year.
The Cup
I believe that this race is between Designs On Rome and Military Attack. Designs On Rome appears to be coming back to form and should give a good account in the Cup. Military Attack has hit form pretty quickly this year, probably due to the change in trainer. The 2014 QEII finish was between these two and there wasnt much in it. At the time of writing they are each available with UK bookies at 4/1 which is good value, so I will probably invest in both of them, though if I had to make a choice it would be for Designs On Rome.
The Vase
I fully expect Flintshire to win this race, given he travels over well. He is just about value at 2/1 which is currently available with a couple of UK bookmakers. I have Snow Sky and Red Cadeaux both priced at 6/1 which is more or less what they are currently priced at. I think however that Snow Sky may be a double figure price on the day in Hong Kong, so I will wait for the day and back him then, though I think that Flintshire is worth a bet at 2/1 now.
The Mile
The most likely winner is Able Friend, the best price available at the time of writing with UK bookmakers is 5/4 against, he will surely be odds on on the day of the race with the local betting. Of the remainder I have respect for Ambitious Dragon especially with Ryan Moore in the saddle, he is available at 12/1 currently with UK bookmakers which is good value in my book, I would expect around 6/1 locally on the day. Also the Japanese horse Fiero is of interest, currently available at 14/1 with UK bookmakers, I am not sure what price he will start at locally as this depends on the level of Japanese support, I believe that he is a 6/1 shot but will very likely start at double figures locally. A difficult race to be sure about, so I would suggest a small investment on Ambitious Dragon and Fiero at UK odds, though if I had to make a choice it would be for an upset on Fiero.
The Sprint
This is the most difficult of the International races to weigh up, many of the runners could put their best foot forward and spring a surprise. Lucky Nine is a consistent Hong Kong sprinter, though he was well beaten in this last year and can occasionally put in a poor run. The Japanese have a strong hand, but none of their runners really take the eye. The Hong Kong pretenders include Peniaphobia and Aerovelocity who both could improve to this class. The one horse that I really think will take all the beating is the Australian sprinter Buffering, he has been on the go for a few years now but has been really consistent at top class in Australia, so he is my selection. Currently available at 10/1 in the UK and may well be better in Hong Kong on the day.
racecard will be out December 11, but 73-page form guide available now:
http://campaign.hkjc.com/en/2014-hkir/r … _1415LHKIR
click Download Race Form (All Races) button.
Hats off to Ryan Moore (yet again) for getting me out of trouble at Happy Valley last night on 14/1 winner Amazingly, he really is the best, though the Jap Fukunaga isnt that bad either.
Selections for Sunday
Vase: Flintshire
Sprint: Buffering
Mile: Fiero
Cup: Designs On RomeGood Luck (you will need it)
Indeed,
Flintshire
is known to travel well abroad. This kind of horse which had a rich autumn either wins or is nowhere.
The Vase has no secret forRed Cadeaux
after taking many places there. He ran a tremendous race at Flemington lately and seems now to be back to his best after a disappointing season. I believe in him.
Otherwise I pay attention toCurren Mirotic
which is going to be fresher than most of his opponents. This could simply make the difference in December.
The Cup is a tough race to decipher and seems to be widely open.
Cirrus
has never ran well there. I won’t back him.
Archimedes
is interesting. He finished 2nd to Just A Way last February and he may be in contention for the victory based on that past value if he doesn’t lack fitness.
Military Attack
should be in the mix as well. He plays at home, his last two races are good and he seems in better shape than last year or two years ago. But I don’t really like his way of racing…
final version of racecard now downloadable – click Download Race Form (All Races) above the silks here:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/Meet … 41214/ST/4
the international races are races 4, 5, 7, and 8 and start with the Vase at 06:00 UK time.
near-live TV webcast here:
http://campaign.hkjc.com/en/2014-hkir/2 … -live.aspx
near-live radio webcast here:
http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp
(for security reasons HKJC insert a variable time-lag for internet, typically 30 – 60 seconds).
HK PMU here:
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/r … n&dv=local
(some 20pc – 30pc of the total amount bet on a race tends to show up in the final 60 seconds, partly due to the huge players needing a feel for likely returns and trying to out-spoof each other, and partly similarly due to illegals managing their liabilities. typical total bet per race is HKD 100m – 130m: last line of figures at bottom right of window).
raceday SCMP now online:
HKJC TV preview programme now online, featuring the English language commentary team plus Neil Callan.
click the band headed Racing To Win for the hidden drop-down boxes with just the race number in them, and go to 4,5, 7 and 8:
Ambitious Dragon just scratched from Mile – presumably just ran out of time in resolving that well-reported moderate lameness in his front right.
pushes Ryan out to 1000 (from 200) fixed-odds in the Jockey Challenge – maybe not the worst of outlying punts since he looks to have a chance in race 2 on the undercard in addition to his Vase and Sprint mounts – with the early PMU pricing them at 9, 5 and 13.
results and replay links start here:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/Meet … 41214/ST/4
but in summary:
Vase – Flintshire @ 2.1
Sprint – Aerovelocity @ 3.9
Mile – Able Friend @ 1.3
Cup – Designs on Rome @ 1.9Moreira’s last-to-first runs in the Mile (race 7) and Cup (race 8 ) well worth a look.
Douglas Whyte has great meeting – eight rides yield four wins on undercard and four seconds, including in the three internationals where he had a mount.
Just shows the value that is available in the UK when the bookies still underestimate the value of Hong Kong form. For example, Flintshire available at 2/1 in at times, Able Friend at evens and better, Designs at 4/1 at times and Aerovelocity at 6/1 in places. Big prices available locally for most of the invaders. The locals seem to do very well at this meeting as has been apparent with the results over the past years, maybe the trainers and conditions are better over here though travelling must take its toll on the invaders. Well done Andre Atzeni for winning the 6th race on 10/1 shot Let Me Go.
Oviously Flintshire doesn’t have HK form but he was well regarded over here, and Willie Casals made him fight anyway.
Thank you, STM. You led me to an 18/1 winner last year and supplied us all with terrific info this year.
HKJC CEO on what next for HKIR:
Alan Aitken, SCMP:
The Jockey Club does not fear "Japan Cup syndrome" [where locals scare off visitors], but plans another lift in prize money and a redoubling of efforts to attract top overseas stars to its annual showpiece after local heroes again eclipsed the foreigners on Sunday.
The club added HK$11 million to bring prize money for the Longines Hong Kong International Races this year to HK$83 million [GBP 7 million], but locals kept more than 73 per cent – almost HK$61 million – at home, in winning three events for the second successive year.
Chief executive Winfried Engelbrecht-Bresges says that is a powerful reinforcement of club policies more than a decade old and designed to raise the standard of Hong Kong’s racehorses, but also a double-edged sword.
"It’s wonderful to celebrate success and our policy to have more world-class horses here has obviously worked," he said. "But it is a small concern how we attract overseas horses."
In the earliest days of the internationals, the club placed ceilings on the past performances of visiting horses to maintain race competitiveness, but the foreigners were still too strong on balance.
Over time, those restrictions were removed as the locals improved, then bonuses were offered to owners to further encourage the acquisition of class horses and the result now is that Hong Kong runners dominate the day.
The obvious comparison is with the Japan Cup, which underwent similar phases and the home contingent is now so strong that top quality visitors are almost impossible to attract.
"I wouldn’t say we are in the same position as Japan, where they have really no chance to be successful," Engelbrecht-Bresges said.
"At our meeting, if you bring a horse like Flintshire, you can still win. And if you look at the Japanese sprinter, Straight Girl, she was unlucky from a bad draw.
"Criterion and Cirrus Des Aigles ran very well in the Cup, on ground that was perhaps firmer than Cirrus Des Aigles likes. It’s not correct to say they aren’t competitive, even if they did not win."
But, with a growing list of international dates around the globe, the club is aware it must compete strongly to attract depth.
"Part of that is more prize money, and we will look at that for next year, but we need to think how we make it attractive in as many ways as we can," Engelbrecht-Bresges said.
"On Sunday, I had discussions with overseas trainers and owners and asked why some people would put a horse in a stallion parade instead of running here. It comes back to the world seeing you win here and creating added value in your horse. It is not only about prize money."
The absence of the absolute best from Hong Kong has in some cases been connected to the notion that winning here did nothing for a horse’s stud value, but defeat was a serious negative.
The paradox of it becoming harder to win in Hong Kong at least works to eliminate that notion, so winning becomes an enhancement to value and defeat no longer a disgrace.
"In this regard our partners Longines, with the creation of the world’s best horse rankings, helps," Engelbrecht-Bresges said. "It has elevated and highlighted the quality of horses from non-traditional centres – and Hong Kong is in that category – so people take notice.
"And it combines with Dubai, where our horses do meet Europeans in a neutral territory and where I think our horses will be very competitive in 2015. This global view takes three to five years to change the mindset so people bring their very best and it can create more stud value, especially considering the dual hemisphere picture."
Racing manager Teddy Grimthorpe described this global commercial showcase effect after Flintshire scored the first Hong Kong win for one of the world’s biggest owner-breeders, Juddmonte Farms’ Prince Khalid bin Abdullah al-Saud.
"And he is absolutely right," Engelbrecht-Bresges said. "This is where east meets west, north meets south. Look at Criterion, his performance has absolutely increased his stud value perception in Australia."We have a platform where everyone can come and run and be comfortable, without the underlying issues there are, for example, with the Breeders’ Cup."
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