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Prix Imprudence views
Game winner in
Xcellence
, blocked in until a split came about a furlong out, then ran on well to take the lead though didnt go away until just before the line to win by a neck, she is due to contest the French 1000Gns. The runner up,
Vorda
who showed good 2YO form, apart from unsuccessful trip to Breeders Cup, was the horse to take out of this race, in my opinion, she showed good pace, and ran on well in the final furlong. She is due to run in the English 1000 Gns, 20/1 is available in a couple of places which is a good price, there is a slight doubt about her stamina over a mile.
Miss France
was very disappointing, the Fabre stable doesnt seem to be in great form just yet, but on this showing I cant support for the 1000 Gns.
Youtube interview with Doumen (in French), but race replay shown (also with French commentary)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4WpOhX6ImIHunters Light and The Fugue have been withdrawn and Cat O’Mountain and Surfer added.
http://www.emiratesracing.com/node/3?id=2591&tab=4#tab-9555
Winning Line on Dubai Racing Channel on every day this week at 2:00 PM UK time. I find the program very interesting, Ritchie Mullen was on yesterday explaining how the Tapeta surface rides soft in hot weather, and fast after watering. I remember Ed Dunlop saying the same last year after Red Cadeaux benefited from this to come second.
http://www.dmi.ae/live.asp?lang=en&ChannelID=5Currently being reported on Twitter that The Fugue is expected to run in the Dubai Duty Free, not DWC.
Now that the decs are out, I dont see this as a particularly competitive renewal, but after a quick study, I have taken a rather boring view, and gone for Grandeur who appears to me to be head and shoulders above the rest, with the possible exception of Premio Loco. I cant really consider anything else, though Lingfield can always throw up a surprise. I believe that both Grandeur(6/4) and Premio Loco(14/1) are overlays currently, though Premio Loco is getting a bit old now and a win in this race would be quite a surprise.
Grandeur has been prepared for this race, has the best form, has the best jockey by far in Ryan Moore and after winning the trial will be fighting fit, anything better than 6/4 is true value, in my opinion.
With regard to The Fugue, Gosden has said that the mild Winter has benefited the preparation for Dubai, and his experiences preparing Dar Re Mi must have helped during the prep. However, I noticed that Hills are also quoting The Fugue in the Dubai Duty Free (7/2), I dont know if this is really an option, so need to be careful.
http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/news/dubai-world-cup-fugue-firing-ahead-of-reappearance-180314-143.html
I’m not a pace expert myself, I prefer to just watch past videos, though the following links may give an impression of the likely pace.
There are three trial races intended as prep races for the Dubai World Cup, the Trakus reports that contain information on the running of each trial are included below.
Al Maktoum Challenge R1
(G2 8f) (1m 35.84s (slow by 0.14s))
1st: Shuruq
http://amwestentertainment.com/media/file/Trakus%20Report%20-%2020140109.pdfAl Maktoum Challenge R2
(G2 9.5f) (1m 55.67s (fast by 0.33s))
1st: Prince Bishop
http://amwestentertainment.com/media/file/Trakus%20Report%20-%2020140206.pdfAl Maktoum Challenge R3
(G1 10f) (2m 4.23s (slow by 1.43s))
1st: Prince Bishop
http://amwestentertainment.com/media/file/Trakus%20Report%20-%2003_08_2014.pdfWikipedia link showing DWC history with race times (note that it was only run from Meydan since 2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dubai_World_CupYouTube playlist showing DWCs run at Meydan plus this year’s Al Maktoum Challenge trials
http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCyHaNaZtt_-QpmvAhLng2CRYOxu1CeiAComfortable win from
Vercingetorix
, he was an underlay in my book, but tactics suited him and I had underestimated how good he is. Presumably he will go for the Duty Free now, but stronger opponents will be out for that race (such as Just A Way from Japan), so wouldnt be taking a short price about him in that race.
Trade Storm
ran on well from last to forth as is getting a habit for him, he needs to run against lesser opponents if he is to run this kind of race.
Lamour De Ma Vie
was never in the race after playing up in the stalls then pulling hard in the early part of the race, not sure what the plans are for her, but she can bounce back at G2 level in Europe.
Some Dubai racing links that may be of interest
http://www.emiratesracing.com/
http://www.dubairacenight.com/
http://www.amwestentertainment.com/dubai-racing/recaps/
http://www.dmi.ae/live.asp?lang=en&ChannelID=5
http://www.stmsolutions.co.uk/focusraces.phpThe dmi.ae shows live coverage of the races hosted by the lovely Laura King
I spent a bit of time over the holiday period looking at the videos of the 2YO races that may have a bearing on the 2014 1000Gns and 2000Gns. Below are my opinions on the possible 1000Gns contenders.
Al Thakhira
Very impressive winner of the Rockfell and could well be a leading player for the 1000 Gns. I feel it was a shame that they sent her to the Breeders Cup as I don’t think that this is any good for 2YOs and usually implies that they are trying to cash in on their 2YO career rather than letting them mature for a 3YO career. She didn`t run her race at Santa Anita, so I’m not sure about her future as a 3YO, though I am inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt as I have a lot of respect for Marco Botti.
Amazing Maria
Comfortable winner of the G3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood that rounded off a progressive 2YO campaign. Needs to improve again to take a hand in the 1000gns, though well capable of doing so. Will have to re-evaluate in the spring if she makes it to the race.
Chriselliam
Chriselliam progressed really well towards the end of her 2YO season winning the Fillies Mile then The Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, showing a really good turn of foot to win both. However I tend to discard 2YOs that run in the Breeders Cup as they don`t usually progress as 3YOs, this one may prove me wrong, but I much prefer to concentrate on horses that I believe have got more potential for improvement as 3YOs. So even though Chriselliam is near the head of the 1000gns market, I will look elsewhere, unless she runs well in one of the 3YO trials.
Ihtimal
I don’t think that Ihtimal will be quite good enough to win the 1000gns, she seems like G2 class to me at best. She showed decent form in the Autumn of her 2YO season, but I will be surprised if she progresses enough to take a hand in the 1000Gns.
Indonesienne
Indonesienne progressed immensely, as her price indicated, to take the Marcel Boussac at Longchamp. She was previously well beaten by Miss France at Chantilly, so we have to decide how much she has progressed since that run and has Miss France progressed by a similar amount. I would be a little surprised if Indonesienne came over for the 1000Gns at Newmarket, so maybe we don`t have to make that decision until later in the season.
Kiyoshi
Definitely up to G1 class, but needs to mature and learn to finish. In final 2 races of 2YO career, both G1, she came to lead in the final furlong only to be run out of it at the end. She will have to improve to take a hand in the 1000 Gns.
Lucky Kristale
I really like this one, slight doubt about getting the mile of the Guineas and whether she will be ready by May, but if she does get there, she could have a major chance. Only tested at 6F as a 2YO but was very impressive, especially when winning the G2 Duchess Of Cambridge and Lowther (reportedly short of work when winning the Lowther). Was due to run in the Cheveley Pak but was scoped dirty, so put away for the season.
Miss France
Highly respected trainer following a quite unusually path with Miss France as a 2YO by sending her to Newmarket to run in the G3 Oh So Sharp stakes. She ran on strongly and wasnt stretched despite the narrow winning margin, Presumably the experience will stand her in good stead for the 1000 gns. She certainly won her previous race well at Chantilly, much too good for Indonesienne who went on to win the Marcel Boussac. So at this stage Miss France has impeccable. credentials for the 1000 Guineas.
Rizeena
Highly tried as a 2YO and more than paid her way with win in the G1 Moyglare. However I think that, although she should be successful as a 3YO, she will not be good enough to take the 1000 Gns at Newmarket. I believe that Clive Brittain reckons that she is the best horse that he has had since Pebbles, so I may be wrong (wouldnt be the first time)
Royalmania
Won a couple of minor races in France, then finsished off the season with a running on last to 4th in the Marcel Boussac. Didn’t look like taking a hand in the finish, but a fine run anyway. Worth taking a look at if he comes over for the 1000 Gns
Tapestry
Not much luck in running in the Moyglare, but don’t think that she would have won anyway. Needs to improve to get involved in the 1000Gns, there are other runners that I prefer.
Vorda
Was getting quite interesting after her win in the Cheveley Park, but flopped in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Filles Turf. So I`m not going to consider her for the 1000 Gns, she probably wont run anyway as she will probably be suited by sprint trips if she does in fact train on.
Probably the main contender at the time of writing in my opinion is Miss France who is currently trading as near favourite for the race so not great value.
The one that I am particularly interested in is Lucky Kristale. There maybe a doubt about her getting the trip and being ready by May, but I believe connections are targetting the Guineas and she has scope for improvement enough to take a hand. I wouldnt be betting on her just yet, but will be watching out for positive reports in the Spring.
Below is a link to a YouTube playlist that I have set up and will be maintaining that contains races including 1000Gns contenders (where available)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dueZ7jgFeU&list=PLCyHaNaZtt_9aten_nlzsgeaPwFHem4-4As Im not really into jump racing, I though I would spend a bit of time looking at the key 2000 Gns contenders, maybe a bit early but here goes anyway.
Australia
Improved as a 2YO with easy educational runs, impressive in a Leopardstown G3 over 1M. Currently near the forefront of the betting for the 2000gns and Derby, at this stage I would be more interested in the Derby. The are definitely more pattern races to be won with him in 2014, but its always difficult guessing what the Ballydoyle Guineas plans are, so we will wait and guess a bit nearer to the race
Be Ready
I was pretty impressed with this one in the Doncaster Flying Scotsman Listed race, quickening very well to beat Barley Mow by 3L. This gets more interesting as Barley Mow was beaten a similar distance in the Lagardere. It seems that Be Ready could well be the main Godolphin 2000Gns candidate, I am hoping that he progresses well in the Spring as he will be an interesting runner
Berkshire
I cant really see Berkshire taking a hand in the Guineas, Ok the Chesham run was good and the media latched on to him, but the Royal Lodge run was not very noteworthy. He will have to improve significantly on that run to get involved in the Guineas
Great White Eagle
Great White Eagle had looked promising at one stage of his 2YO season, but didn’t show much in the Middle Park, granted he didn’t get much racing room, but didn’t show much in the closing stages. He has to show a lot more to be considered for the 2000 Guineas
Indian Maharaja
From his two educational runs as a 2YO, Indian Maharaja is surely going to be quite high in the Ballydoyle pecking order. Currently seems to be more of a Derby candidate from the betting. If he is lined up for Newmarket, then will surely come in for consideration
Karakontie
Karakontie is pretty tough and is a battler, after watching his two pattern race wins I think that he should be treated with respect wherever he runs in 2014, however, I suspect that he will be vulnerable to a top class runner with a good turn of foot. I don’t expect he will come over for the 2000 Guineas, if he does I think that there will be one or two better than him
Kingman
He has done everything asked of him to date, just a shame that he wasn’t able to run again in his 2YO season after a comfortable win in the Solario (minor operation prevented him running in any of the 2YO group one races). Open to significant improvement, so need to keep him on side, though I don’t expect any value from him as media have him in their sights
Kingston Hill
Impressive winner of the Racing Post Trophy over 1M on heavy ground, as such it is expected that he will be more suited to distances in excess of 1M as a 3YO. So unless the ground is heavy at Newmarket, I believe that he would be worth opposing in the Guineas. However he is pretty certain to win pattern races as a 3YO so he is definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Night Of Thunder
Impressive Listed winner when winning the Doncaster Stakes on soft ground. Toormore is the Hannon number one choice for the Guineas, but this one cant be far behind. I guess it all depends how they progress in the spring. This one is certainly worth taking notice of if we have a wet Spring
No Nay Never
American trained, created an excellent impression in the 2YO races that he won on this side of the Atlantic, especially the Morney at Deauville. He will certainly be worth consideration in sprint races as a 3YO but not so sure about the mile which may stretch him, even if run on fast ground.
Outstrip
Outstrip has an excellent turn of foot as shown when taking the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Seems like fast ground suits him well. However, I tend to discard any 2YO that runs in the Breeders Cup, as they tend to be early maturing sorts, that don’t improve as 3YOs, I have such a feeling about Outstrip
Toormore
Toormore progressed well in his 2YO season to take the National Stakes at the Curragh leading all the way and running on well. He picked up late to win the Vintage at Goodwood, though may have been a bit lucky as, if Outstrip had been held up longer I think he would have won. Anyway Toormore is versatile with regards to style of running, and ground conditions, so he must come into calculations as a leading player for the 2000Gns
War Command
War Command has been well tested in 2013, looks sure for pattern level success in 2014. Very impressive in the Coventry, though presumably unexpected based on the SP. One blip in the Phoenix, possibly not quite ready, as subsequent runs indicated to me that he is better than the horses that beat him in the Phoenix. Stated to need GF ground to show his best, which may not be available at Newmarket in May, though if the ground is on the fast side, I would expect him to be a leading player
The two main contenders at the time of writing in my opinion are
Kingman
and
War Command
but they are both currently near the head of the market, so not great value.
The one that I am particularly interested in is
Be Ready
. This one showed immense promise as a 2YO and I feel will be the Godolphin number one choice. I hope that they don’t race him in Dubai, as Dubai contenders seem to need a break when they return to the UK. A lot depends on whether or not they can get him ready for May, not sure about this based on past results.
The other one that I like is
Night Of Thunder
if the going is likely to be testing.
I have created a YouTube playlist that includes most of the 2YO races involving the key 2000 Gns contenders, that is where the video is available on YouTube (I don’t add such videos to YouTube myself, just link to what I have found to exist)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNrqsZcmfzg&list=PLCyHaNaZtt_-0Fe69Fx1CV0_ilvaB2Bv4
HKIR Post Mortem
The Vase
The Fugue should have won, not one of Buicks best rides, the reports are that she was shuffled back but thats not how I saw it, seemed to me that she couldnt get out so was dropped back and had to come round the whole field. Was running on in the end but had done enough by then as this trip is as far as she wants to go. Dominant was unpickable unless you follow Zac Purton, which is not a bad technique lately. Red Cadeaux was also not given a great ride, covering too much ground, cant blame the draw as Dunaden and Dominant both had outside draws.
The Sprint
Lord Kanaloa immensely superior, shame he is now off to stud. I cant get used to the way the Iwata rides a finish, but it doesnt seem to adversely affect the result. Another great ride from Murtagh to get Sole Power up for second.
The Mile
Glorious Days well backed just before the off. I am convinced that, contrary to reports, they purposely ran him in this as his first race of the season, given his good record first time up. I have underestimated Gold Fun, who nearly won, he will be winning good races in the future. Moonlight Cloud ran pretty well, but she is not as good a miler as she a sprinter. Gordon Lord Byron finished 4th again at a big price, the best of the visitors, he seems to be improving. Sky Lantern wasnt at the races, as some had predicted.
The Cup
I had underestimated Akeed Mofeed, he showed a brilliant turn of foot to take this when a gap opened. Plans are to run in Dubai or Sydney next, I hope Dubai but expect Sydney. Cirrus Des Aigles put in a very good performance given that he would have preferred softer ground, he doesnt have the turn of foot that is required to take a race like this. The general opinion is that Military Attack wasnt quite 100% fit, I expected him to win this so was a bit disappointed, though he ran well enough, may be interesting if he runs in Dubai. Side Glance finished best of the rest with a very commendable 5th, again he will be worth watching in Dubai.
All race replays and comments available in the excellent HKJC website.
Just got back from the pub in Wan Chai, and having a look at the initial odds posted on the HKJC website, maybe I had a few too many beers, but I guess that they will all change in the next 20 hours or so.
The following looked potentially interesting.
Dunaden 20/1 in the Vase
Slade Power 95/1 in the sprint
Moonlight Cloud 3.1/1 in the mile
Sky Lantern 14/1 in the mile
Gordon Lord Byron 41/1 in the mile
Cirrus Des Aigles 18/1 in the Cup
Little Mike 63/1 in the Cup
Side Glance 39/1 in the CupCurrent odds can be viewed on the HKJC website http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx&lang=en&langRedirect=true#r_shortcut_e
As I mentioned in an earlier post, Canbet and Racebets take bets at local odds. They seem OK to me though I have never yet had a decent win with them.
I have a sneaking fancy for Tableaux in the 6th race, not covered in the UK betting. But this one won a couple of group 2 races in the spring when trained by Andre Fabre. It is currently priced up at 31/1. Ryan Moore has the ride. The trip is a bit short, but it is a twice group 2 winner running in a class 2 handicap. What price would that be in the UK?
Japanese connections are very bullish about the chances of Lord Kanaloa in the sprint, despite the outside draw http://japanracing.jp/_news2013/131206-04.html
I cant see past Lord Kanaloa or Lucky Nine in this race, currently 15/8 and 9/2 respectively with Hills which seem fair prices to me, I expect Lucky Nine will be much shorter at local odds due to his popularity over here and good draw.
Just been having a look at the draw for Sundays races, I generally try not to get too upset about this sort of thing as its something that can usually be managed by a decent jockey and a bit of luck in running.
Reactions of the connections have been posted on the Hkjc website here http://campaign.hkjc.com/en/2013-hkir/2013-hkir-news-details.aspx?in_file=hkir_news_2013120501650.html&b_cid=EWHPJSE_1314LHKIR
Interestingly Freddy Head said he was hoping for an outside draw for Midnight Cloud whereas most of the other connections would have preferred an inside draw.
Last year in the mile I had a small EW bet on Gordon Lord Byron as his odds were massive 80/1 for a win and double figure odds for a place. I was just reading a comment from Tom Hogan who said that the horse is much stronger this year and that last year he was running a temperature two hours after the race. He was just beaten into 4th place last year, I put it down to him not getting the mile, but if he is anything like those odds again this year, he must be supported.
Currently sitting in my hotel room in Hong Kong, overlooking Happy Valley race track. Will be going tonight for the International Jockeys Challenge, might have a small bet on Christophe Soumillon currently priced up at about 15/1, low class racing though, so cant show too much interest.
Was thinking on the flight over yesterday, that Glorious Days may be worth an interest in the Mile on Sunday. Currently priced up at 12/1 in the UK, I expect he will be a lot shorter at local odds on the day. This will be his first run of the HK season which starts round about July time, though he has a good record first time out. As I mentioned before, I dont think that Moonlight Clouds odds represent value considering the mile trip is as far as she wants to go. Also it has been reported over here that Sky Lantern did not look too good when she got off the plane, apparently she has now recovered, but this doesnt bode well for her chances, still might be worth a bet at local odds though as I wouldnt be surprised to see her go off at a double figure price. Im not too sure about Gold Fun who has won a few races over here, but needs to improve a bit to take a hand here IMO, he may well be up to it, but I wont be supporting him on Sunday.
So Glorious Days could be the one given that he is rated one of the best milers over here, closely matched with Ambitious Dragon, last years winner, Glorious Days was second last year. Certainly 12/1 seems like a good EW bet to me.
My favorite meeting of the year, I have been going for the last five years. IMO Hong Kong racing is the best run in the world.
These are my thoughts on the international races.
Hong Kong Cup
Doesnt seem that good a turnout this year. I was very impressed with Military Attack in the QEII Cup in April and more so in the Singapore Cup. He is on his way back now and must have a favorite’s chance. 3/1 is a fair price as I expect he will be shorter at local odds on the day. Cirrus Des Aigles has tried a few times in HK and never really run to form, if I were interested in backing him I would take local odds (racebets and canbet take bets at local odds). Little Mike is well capable of springing a surprise at decent local odds, but I wont be supporting him.
Hong Kong Vase
If The Fugue travels over without problem she is a banker bet here. 7/4 is fair value and may hopefully be a point longer in HK at local odds. Nothing else in the race is worth considering.
Hong Kong Sprint
Last year’s winner Lord Kanaloa is due to run his last race, and I am expecting him to win again. The current odds are not that appealing. 13/8 is just about worth taking IMO as I think he will be shorter at local odds on the day. Slade Power could be worth an EW bet at 25/1 with Bet365 at the time of writing.
Hong Kong Mile
Moonlight Cloud is not value at 7/4 IMO, she is possibly vulnerable at a mile. Gold-Fun is the local hope, 5/1 is currently available with Hills which is worth taking if you fancy this one as he will be shorter on the day at local odds. My main fancy is Sky Lantern who may be a decent price at local odds on the day. She has show a decent turn of foot in the UK which is necessary in HK. Again a major factor is how she travels over to HK.
If anybody is interested, I run the website: stmsolutions.co.uk (not for profit). I concentrate on flat turf group races. The following links relate to my opinions on the HK International races.
stmsolutions.co.uk/focusraces.php
stmsolutions.co.uk/roadtohkg.php
