1000 Guineas 2014

I do think a French filly will win the 1000 Guineas next year but for me it would have to be VORDA currently 14/1 she represents good value.

Vorda ran 1 length 2nd to No Nay Never before taking the Cheveley Park (Group 1) at Newmarket in very good style from Princess Noor on 28th September.

Miss France won the Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3) on 27th September but Lightning Thunder who was 2nd that day ran a below par race in the Rockfel (Group 2) at Newmarket 2 weeks later when beaten by the Marco Botti trained Al Thakira.

A worry could be that Miss France may not act on Soft ground having lost her maiden in those conditions and the ground could go against her in the 1000 Guineas. I would see her more as a Royal Ascot type but it’s a long way to go yet and the French 2yo’s do seem superior to ours this year.

I spent a bit of time over the holiday period looking at the videos of the 2YO races that may have a bearing on the 2014 1000Gns and 2000Gns. Below are my opinions on the possible 1000Gns contenders.

Al Thakhira

Very impressive winner of the Rockfell and could well be a leading player for the 1000 Gns. I feel it was a shame that they sent her to the Breeders Cup as I don’t think that this is any good for 2YOs and usually implies that they are trying to cash in on their 2YO career rather than letting them mature for a 3YO career. She didn`t run her race at Santa Anita, so I’m not sure about her future as a 3YO, though I am inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt as I have a lot of respect for Marco Botti.

Amazing Maria

Comfortable winner of the G3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood that rounded off a progressive 2YO campaign. Needs to improve again to take a hand in the 1000gns, though well capable of doing so. Will have to re-evaluate in the spring if she makes it to the race.

Chriselliam

Chriselliam progressed really well towards the end of her 2YO season winning the Fillies Mile then The Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, showing a really good turn of foot to win both. However I tend to discard 2YOs that run in the Breeders Cup as they don`t usually progress as 3YOs, this one may prove me wrong, but I much prefer to concentrate on horses that I believe have got more potential for improvement as 3YOs. So even though Chriselliam is near the head of the 1000gns market, I will look elsewhere, unless she runs well in one of the 3YO trials.

Ihtimal

I don’t think that Ihtimal will be quite good enough to win the 1000gns, she seems like G2 class to me at best. She showed decent form in the Autumn of her 2YO season, but I will be surprised if she progresses enough to take a hand in the 1000Gns.

Indonesienne

Indonesienne progressed immensely, as her price indicated, to take the Marcel Boussac at Longchamp. She was previously well beaten by Miss France at Chantilly, so we have to decide how much she has progressed since that run and has Miss France progressed by a similar amount. I would be a little surprised if Indonesienne came over for the 1000Gns at Newmarket, so maybe we don`t have to make that decision until later in the season.

Kiyoshi

Definitely up to G1 class, but needs to mature and learn to finish. In final 2 races of 2YO career, both G1, she came to lead in the final furlong only to be run out of it at the end. She will have to improve to take a hand in the 1000 Gns.

Lucky Kristale

I really like this one, slight doubt about getting the mile of the Guineas and whether she will be ready by May, but if she does get there, she could have a major chance. Only tested at 6F as a 2YO but was very impressive, especially when winning the G2 Duchess Of Cambridge and Lowther (reportedly short of work when winning the Lowther). Was due to run in the Cheveley Pak but was scoped dirty, so put away for the season.

Miss France

Highly respected trainer following a quite unusually path with Miss France as a 2YO by sending her to Newmarket to run in the G3 Oh So Sharp stakes. She ran on strongly and wasnt stretched despite the narrow winning margin, Presumably the experience will stand her in good stead for the 1000 gns. She certainly won her previous race well at Chantilly, much too good for Indonesienne who went on to win the Marcel Boussac. So at this stage Miss France has impeccable. credentials for the 1000 Guineas.

Rizeena

Highly tried as a 2YO and more than paid her way with win in the G1 Moyglare. However I think that, although she should be successful as a 3YO, she will not be good enough to take the 1000 Gns at Newmarket. I believe that Clive Brittain reckons that she is the best horse that he has had since Pebbles, so I may be wrong (wouldnt be the first time)

Royalmania

Won a couple of minor races in France, then finsished off the season with a running on last to 4th in the Marcel Boussac. Didn’t look like taking a hand in the finish, but a fine run anyway. Worth taking a look at if he comes over for the 1000 Gns

Tapestry

Not much luck in running in the Moyglare, but don’t think that she would have won anyway. Needs to improve to get involved in the 1000Gns, there are other runners that I prefer.

Vorda

Was getting quite interesting after her win in the Cheveley Park, but flopped in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Filles Turf. So I`m not going to consider her for the 1000 Gns, she probably wont run anyway as she will probably be suited by sprint trips if she does in fact train on.

Probably the main contender at the time of writing in my opinion is Miss France who is currently trading as near favourite for the race so not great value.

The one that I am particularly interested in is Lucky Kristale. There maybe a doubt about her getting the trip and being ready by May, but I believe connections are targetting the Guineas and she has scope for improvement enough to take a hand. I wouldnt be betting on her just yet, but will be watching out for positive reports in the Spring.

Below is a link to a YouTube playlist that I have set up and will be maintaining that contains races including 1000Gns contenders (where available)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dueZ7jgFeU&list=PLCyHaNaZtt_9aten_nlzsgeaPwFHem4-4

There is very little value at the head of the market for the 1000 Guineas this year. I can’t have Miss France at the price she is and several contenders seem pretty exposed and/or doubtful at the trip. Lucky Kristale has a good string of form but I worry about her stamina. Tapestry was my pick of the first few in the betting, as I feel she will improve most of those who were competing at group level last year, but I am looking for the mother lode and champagne rather than White Lighning cider.

Hot Snap burst onto the scene early last season and it seems ripe for something to emerge from the shadows come early spring. Moth was one of those who staked a claim to Guineas glory on her seasonal debut in 2013 and I am looking to a dark horse, at big odds, for a punt from the same, imperious, stable this time around.

Step forward the ambitiously name

Terrific

who cost over a million quid as a yearling but then disappointed, albeit not particularly expected at 8/1, when 12th of sixteen on her debut. Connections felt that she had been so green and seemed to spook at something on that occasion, that she was fitted with blinkers on her second start, when running out a game winner as second favourite over a mile at the Curragh. The blinkers were on again when she was dropped to 7f for a twenty grand race at the same track and she made all and stayed on well to win comfortably.

Obviously she needs to improve a good deal this season and the blinkers will concern many people but those are the reasons why she is 33/1. By Gallileo and a full sister to Together, who was just worn down by Blue Bunting in the 1000 Guineas of 2011 (where a wee cuddy called Moonlight Cloud was back in 7th) she is in the correct hands to be a Guineas contender and it would be no surprise to see her take a big step forward this year. Already a winner at a mile, she seems comfortable being at, or near, the head of affairs and if she makes a winning seasonal debut and is aimed at the 1000 Guineas, you know her odds will collapse as other bubbles burst in the April popping frenzy.

Sporting selection

Terrific 10pts E/W 33/1

We all know how Richard Hughes can talk up horses chance’s but it’s rare in recent years at least for him to be so bullish about one which isn’t attached to the Hannon yard so this

CHRISELLIAM

is noted in my book in capital bold letters.

Being a man of few words but a Master thread writer there’s only one horse for me…….

Tapestry at 16/1

.Oh and whilst I’m at it I did say this

Kiyoshi

,the Summer Ante-Post fav for the 1000 gns as short as 7/1 had no chance, she has too much speed to get a mile,I’ll also state now that

Chriselliam

wont be winning either.I wont say that about

Miss France

though she has a touch of class.

I think cutting Chriselliam from 20/1 to 5/1 on the heads of a Breeders Cup win is ridiculous though Nathan. I also see her in the betting for the 2000 Guineas, so a bit of a choker for "I’m bullish Richard (this is the best horse I have ever sat on, on at 20/1 so I am) Hughes", when she comes trailing in behind Toormore in the lads race instead, ridden by none other than himself and declared the best horse not called Chriselliam that he has ever sat on.

Miss France has a fair bit to prove to me yet and if trained by a lesser name she would be 16/1 right now. One for fools, virgins and Francophiles only at current odds and before the Superbowl.

Anyone know anything about the well being or targets for

Vallado

? Looked a filly of some promise last season but is over 200/1 on Betfair for this so I presume she’s not going.

The last I heard was this from the trainer at the end of last September:-

Trainer Eddie Lynam has decided to decided to draw stumps on the filly’s juvenile season and concentrate on her Classic campaign.

The daughter of Clodovil had three races in the space of a month in the summer. After finishing second on her debut at Leopardstown in late July, she opened her account over the same six furlongs in mid-August when beating the highly-regarded My Titania.

Vallado completed a busy but lucrative four-week spell when landing a valuable sales race at the Curragh in good style from Atlantic Affair.

"She’s been put away for next season," said Lynam.

"She’s a good filly and we’re looking forward to next season with her.

"She’s got an entry for the Guineas and I’d be confident she’d get a mile."

I have seen her listed as a possible for the Irish 1000 Guineas and it may well be that is her more likely target

The filly she beat (My Titania) goes straight to Newmarket, which should please Bozlike at least.