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The Winter Derby is run at Lingfield on the all weather this coming Saturday and the ante post betting shows that Grandeur is all the rage having won last month’s Derby Trial but I am going to oppose him.
Being a stats man my thinking may be shot to pieces but all of the last 9 winners have had an official rating in the range 104-109 and at 117 he could well follow the fate of other top rated horses in this race.
Top rated horses don’t seem to do that well…
2013 Farraaj (rated at 108) with Premio Loco (111) back in 5th.
2012 Premio Loco top rated at 113.
2011 Nideeb (107) with Dansili Dancer (110) 2nd.
2010 Tranquil Tiger (112) with Stotsfold (116) 4th.
2009 Scintillo (106) with Halicarnassuss (110) 4th.
2008 Hattan (105) with Zaham (113) last in 14th.
2007 Gentleman’s Deal (108) with Alfie Flits (114) 11th.
2006 Sri Diamond (105) with Nayyir (115) 3rd.
2005 Eccentric (104) with Hurricane Alan (114) 3rd.
2004 Hattan (105) with Zaham (113) last in 14th.8 of the last 9 beaten.
No horse has come back to win a second time, so Farraaj would be breaking a trend if he does, but from what I see there is not much else that could take on Grandeur and beat him.
Betting movement over the last few days has been all about the fancied horses…
Grandeur 13/8 > 11/8
Farraaj 7/1 > 6/1
Windhoek 10/1 > 8/1Farraaj e/w at 6/1 for me.
Good luck with your bets.
Now that the decs are out, I dont see this as a particularly competitive renewal, but after a quick study, I have taken a rather boring view, and gone for Grandeur who appears to me to be head and shoulders above the rest, with the possible exception of Premio Loco. I cant really consider anything else, though Lingfield can always throw up a surprise. I believe that both Grandeur(6/4) and Premio Loco(14/1) are overlays currently, though Premio Loco is getting a bit old now and a win in this race would be quite a surprise.
Grandeur has been prepared for this race, has the best form, has the best jockey by far in Ryan Moore and after winning the trial will be fighting fit, anything better than 6/4 is true value, in my opinion.
Grandeur drawn in the car park.
I’ll take a chance on my old mate Premio Loco each way, drawn 1 and ran well in this race in the past and has a good record when going fresh.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Yep, Grandeur is gonna have to go the long way round to win it seems. I think this boosts the chances of yet another top rated horse getting beat.
My fancy Farraaj is drawn in stall 9 so also has an uphill struggle from there. He won last year coming out of stall 5 and his previous run on the course was in am Listed race, which he won coming out of stall 10 of 10 runners.
A lot depends on how Grandeur copes with the first ½ mile, if he can get into a good position then it will be hard to see him getting beaten.
An outsider being backed is Rebellious Gust 33/1 > 16/1.
Good luck.
Really interesting stats there, Trendyrich. I am enjoying your posts very much.
Coral are putting up £100,000 for the prize pool this year, so trainers of the better horses may be more motivated to get their horses hard-fit for a big payday.
It’s hard to pick too many holes in Grandeur, though. He’s fit, he likes the surface, he did the job easily in the Coral Winter Derby Trial…he just has that wide draw to overcome.
Premio Loco is getting very long in the tooth and a few of the other marshmallows aren’t the soundest horses in training, so I think the favourite can overcome everything. It’s not very original, but sometimes you can kid yourself into taking on the good thing when you really shouldn’t.
Apart from the prize money on the day, there’s another substantial incentive to win this, as the winner gets a guaranteed run in the 10F race on AW Championships Day at Lingfield on Good Friday – and that race is worth twice as much as this one.
Which is about the only way to explain the presence of Windhoek, back from Dubai much sooner than is usual for Godolphin runners.
His form in the early part of last year in turf was close to what would be needed to win a Group 3, and he seemed to take to the artifical surface well when winning at Meydan. Nice draw in stall 7 – must be a strong contender in a race that has never interested Godolphin before.WINDHOEK for me like what the last poster said i find it intresting he came back early from Meydan
Grandeur is near the top of the G2 pecking order and is considerably better than the field.
The draw would be of concern but the last time the race attracted double figures (13 in 2012) the first three home came out of stalls 12,13,11.
Thanks to the draw we can get c. 2/1.
Lee
Grandeur drawn in stall 14 but has the best jockey in the world and has half a stone in hand; back or lay?
Grandeur drawn in stall 14 but has the
best jockey in the world
Has there been a jockey change?
I thought Hughesie was on Chill the Kite.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I am searching very much in left field and taking a punt on Mirsaale at 28/1. Unsurprisingly he cut little ice in last years Derby but he is one of the few in the field still open to improvement and it may be that first time out is when to catch him. With not that much between the ratings on the ones behind Grandeur it is worth a wee each way in the hope of an upset.
Grandeur 2/1 would be tempting in a double with Irtijaal at 6/4 in the previous race on the card, where he puts his Classic aspirations (holds two entries) on trial in a listed race he must surely win well in order to justify those lofty ambitions.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I fancy REBELLIOUS GUEST at the price his last run looked good,the question mark is he is coming back to group company but this time on what I believe is his preferred terms
other than that Grandeur
God, some poor efforts in this race, none worse than my cuddy who drifted like a barge and ran like one. He’ll be difficult to place and Premio Loco looks like old age has caught up with him.
Grandeur was pushed up early to try to overcome the draw but he put in a feeble effort that couldn’t really be put down to expending more energy than was ideal at the start.
Looked a seriously poor renewal to me and uninspiring as an event.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I fancy REBELLIOUS GUEST at the price his last run looked good,the question mark is he is coming back to group company but this time on what I believe is his preferred terms
other than that Grandeur
REBELLIOUS GUEST is in the 5 day declarations for the Lincoln this coming Saturday and fits the trend analysis that I have done.
Currently best priced at 20/1.
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