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Hills are in to 2/1 now. Ladbroke are the only firm going 9/4 now.

John Gosden said:-

“She’ll come on for that as she was only 80 per cent fit, 85 at a stretch, but she’s in a good place mentally and she’s enjoyed it”

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Sorry Istabraq, didn’t see this thread as I have abandoned it.

I don’t think there is enough interest to keep it going and I have had lousy luck this year.

33/1 shot in the Derby, hot fav on the day and flopped.

25/1 shot in the 1000 Guineas and she was injured, then beat the winner of that race on both occasions they met since.

Harry Angel at 5/1 Royal Ascot, then got trapped in the stalls

Kew Gardens at 6/1 for the Lingfield Derby trial, went off odds on and flopped, beat that horse every time they met since.

Blue Point at 15/2 out in Meydan, he lined up about Evens and was withdrawn 30 secs before the start with a nosebleed.

Wind Chimes in the French Guineas, they changed to the outside track just before the race and her draw meant she had to come wide and late. Would have won in two more strides at good odds.

It’s just been that sort of year.

My best looking picks this season are Calyx 25/1 2000 Guineas, Too Darn Hot 50/1 in the Derby, Ten Sovereigns 16/1 Commonwealth Cup and Enable 5/1 in the Arc.

Bit short on time these days so I’m just posting in the relevant threads.

I picked Persian King out as my French Derby horse but you just can’t early prices on the French races.

Best of luck!

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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I see what you are saying Kev, I am just saying that the stopwatch is low priority for me and that horse racing is far less tied to the timings than athletics is. Timings are the very first and perhaps only port of call in picking the likely winner. It just doesn’t work that way in horse racing where there are just not more variables, but loads more variables. In addition an athlete may have run loads of times and a horse we are considering might only have run once or twice, so the sample size for analysis is tiny.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Best price now 5/2 with William Hill. Probably averaging 2/1 across the board.

I don’t think you could have asked for more than that, so for that reason I make her 6/4 myself. She had to go out there and do the donkey work but just when it looked Crystal Ocean may pounce, she blew him away.

Looking at Enable today, you would have thought she was the colt and Crystal Ocean the filly. She’s a good bit more imposing than him.

You can forget your Sea Of Class, Enable will destroy her. The form Enable has in the book simply crushes the small amount Sea Of Class has got. If Sea Of Class has a betting slip of form, Enable has the Oxford English Dictionary to trump it with.

Hills have cut to 9/4 already and that’s still worth taking.

Crystal Ocean is as big as 16/1 now.

Job done.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Gustav Klimt won the Guineas Trial first time up over 7F on heavy and he stayed on strongly to claim that race in the closing stages. I would post the replay but ATR require a log in for that now.

Five lengths behind Sir Dancealot last time and he meets him on 6 lbs worse terms this time after the weights being 9st 9lb to 9st 1lb last time and it’s only 9st 3lb to 9st 1lb this time.

Surely that’s a tough ask for Gustav Klimt to reverse and if he was outpaced over 7F, how will he keep tabs any better at 6F?

Pobably goes off half the odds he should be here.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Dahlia, Gustav Klimt has won in a slog on Heavy ground but that was over 7F in April. Watching him that day however, it just didn’t pan out remotely like a sprint race. Kenya and US Navy Flag made the running but both folded up quickly in the closing stages, tiring really badly, Gustav Klimt then came through from the back, where he had sat all race, and outstayed Imaging to win. It just didn’t look like a sprint performance at all and he’ll need to be more prominent today.

Last time out the race report describes Gustav Klimt as being outpaced over 7F behind Sir Dancealot before weakening. He was 5 lengths behind the Elsworth trained winner that day and he’s now 6 lbs worse off with Sir Dancealot.

I would agree that further would be worth a try as Aidan is always on about Galileo progeny getting further than you would expect. This whole “He’s a fast horse” in describing Gustav Klimt seems to have sprung up like an advertising campaign at odds with the original branding.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Admin, people are free to make what they will of timings, It’s not a factor I take into account myself though as the type of races I am concentrating on are highly unlikely to come down to a fraction of a second faster run in a previous race.

A horse running half a second faster in an earlier race is not going to help if another horse has improved ten pounds more than that horse in the interim.

I am giving my opinion here, I am not saying it is gospel and people can make their own minds up. Kev asked a question and I answered it in good faith. I invited people to explain their case for timing being being as impprtant and reliable in Horse Racing as it is in athletics. That was the main thrust of my reply and “Providing informative data” is hugely different from the significance of timings in athletics, where 0.2 seconds can be massive and rule certain runners completely out of a race.

Again, it’s just an opinion but it’s one that I thought was fairly obvious given the huge difference between the two sports. You cannot debrief a horse for clues after a race either

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Why are they millions of miles apart in reliability?

Really? I though it was pretty much self evident.

Athletics is at level where you can take a sprinter with a PB of 10.2 and run him against a sprinter with a PB of 10.0 and unless there is something amiss with the second athlete, he will beat the first athlete EVERY time.

Try applying that with horses and see how it works out.

If you ever watch the qualifying rounds in the Olympics you will note that the personal best figures work as a guide to who will qualify with monotonous regularity. Unless athletes have had injuries their superior PB will see them come through over slower athletes and even then the poor SB (Seasons Best) figures will reveal athletes who are not at the top of their game.

Again, try that as a guide for picking horses and see how it goes.

There are too many factors in horse racing that are variable and much less of the continuity and repetition that makes the athletes figures so much more reliable.

I think there is pretty much zero comparison between the two disciplines but anyone is free to make a case for Horse Racing being similarly reliable on the clock.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Gustav Klimt has won on heavy but he just didn’t look a sprinter that day over 7F in the Guineas trial.

Kenya and US Navy Flag led that day and both went out like a light, allowing Gustav Klimt to come through and outstay Imaging. It really looked that day that the miler waited and picked off the horses who tired in the 7th furlong on heavy ground. Again last time out, he seemed to lack the pace at 7F, so how will 6F help?

Sir Dancelot is in great form but his record screams 7F. He won narrowly over 6F at Hamilton and also won at 6F as a 2YO but he’s a six time winner at 7F and that seems his peak distance. Could well place but I’d be worried a couple will be faster. 12/1 with Paddy Power makes some appeal.

The Tin Man is a similar shout as a horse who could place but he tends not to run on heavy, with last year’s race being the only time he has and he’s never won on soft, so with the tanking he got from Harry Angel last year I couldn’t play him here.

Tasleet has only been out once this season and that puts me off him.

James Garfield ran well last time in France but his efforts before that were less encouraging. He has form with Sands Of Mali, who ran badly in France but had earlier got the better of the Scott horse in the Sandy Lane Stakes. I felt that was one bad run too many from Sands Of Mali and the Sandy Lane Stakes did not work out at all well. I am passing on the 3YO generation for this race, so Eqtidaar is also ruled out.

Brando does not win often enough for my liking and I still get shudders about the day I backed him and he was stone last, running to an RPR of 17. It later transpired he broke a blood vessel. If I ever compiled a book about my unlucky losers and the circumstances Waterstones would probably categorise it under Fiction.

I can’t back Harry Angel at the odds despite him dismissing fears on the same sort of ground last season. I had backed him ante-post for Royal Ascot at 5/1 and had to watch him being withdrawn after the fracas in the stalls. Whether that may leave a scar and cause unrest in the stalls again this time has to be considered. It need not be as severe but be enough to miss the kick or leave him unfit mentally to be at his peak. At 5/4 there is zero wriggle room.

I wanted to play Sir Dancelot in the “Without the favourite” market but haven’t got the time to look around. I wouldn’t have played at 8/1 but the Paddy Power 12/1 was enough for an each-way. Despite the reservation on 6F trip it may pan out as a bit more of a stamina test and the horse is in form and should run his race, hopefully into a place and if anything goes amiss with the Fav who knows.

Sir Dancelot 12/1 EW was my play here.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Bangkok was only 5th today, he simply looked a bit short of pace. They could not give Murray River away and he was desperately green after being slowly away. Money came for the expensive colt Prince Eiji and he looked much more clued up at the business end before picking up well and holding on to win by half a length.

Bangkok fans will have been disappointed by that effort and by the same token people who are with the Stoute colt who beat him last time will probably be on the oxygen mask for a while today.

Red Armada gave it a good go for Clive Cox in second but his proximity doesn’t give the form a great look. Red Armada was beaten six lengths in 4th on debut and had a lowly 68 RPR coming in today. To rate Prince Eiji on a decent mark for today it will be necessary to give Red Armada quite a raise.

Sparkle Roll never got involved on the soft in her race, which went to a rank outsider at 100/1. The uneasy favourite was green, flashed her tail and had an awful looking action akin to a rocking horse, I felt her style may actually suit the ground conditions but she seemed very awkward to me and she needs a bit of time to sort herself out for me.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Bangkok is out at Ascot tomorrow and he will be a warm order after finishing second to the much touted Stoute colt Sangarius on his debut. Short enough for the classics already the Michael Stoute horse is another son of Kingman and no doubt he will contract in price to something fairly silly should Bangkok justify what looks like being a short price tomorrow.

Bangkok is by Australia and John Gosden fields Murray River, who is by the same sire and holds a Derby entry. Perhaps the Varian colt Prince Eiji will be the bigger danger though, as a 2.6 million Guineas son of Dubawi out of the Gosden trained mare Izzi Top, who is the mother of Dreamfield and Willie John, both rated over 100 already. Varian has had a very quiet season by his standard right across the board though.

Bangkok is odds on for the race and the others are weak, although the Michael Bell horse with Hayley Turner up has been nibbled at big odds.

Sparkle Roll, whom I mentioned above is generally 6/5 Fav for her race at Haydock, despite the Johnston filly having won her only race. Quintada is 3/1 but does have to concede 7 lbs.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Salouen was rated based on Cracksman being something like his best. It seems pretty clear connections don’t think he was. The much more logical answer is that Salouen got close to Cracksman without reaching the mark he was awarded. All his other races suggest that is the case. The silence about Cracksman right now is deafening. I’ll be waiting for Salouen to really run to mark he got that one day and then I’ll accept it.

The official handicapper has already admitted to his mistake by lowering Salouen 4 lbs. The horse is 2/20 in his career and won a maiden and a novice stakes in his career. Even his last run, where he was given 109 looks dodgy, as it requires us to believe that the horse in front of him ran a career best at the age of 7 on his 36th start. Hey ho. Believe what you will.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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I put very little store in the times. A different race in a different year is so open to variation.

Some people try to use timings as one might to analyse athletics races but the two disciplines are millions of miles apart in the reliabilty of the timing figures.

I generally go by the official figures because those are the ones the horses have to run from in handicap races. The others tend to get a “stiffy” for certain horses over others from time to time.

I may be wrong about Bruce Wayne but I am correct more times than not in these sorts of scenarios and my observations are based on more than 30 years of looking at ratings in the search for overrated horses.

Is there no one else wary of a 2yo improving 32 lbs in a week? Time will tell us of course but I don’t see Bruce Wayne being a likely group horse.

I remember when Glory Awaits was 2nd in the 2000 Guineas at 150/1 and I questioned his 20 lbs rise in the ratings. Some people said I was being harsh and that the colt would go on to win group races. After 52 career starts he won four times after the Guineas. He landed two handicaps, a listed race and albeit he did win a Group 2, it was in Turkey.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Surely a last gasp attempt to reinvent the horse.

Had he been a true sprinter, would it not have been likely O’Brien would have worked it out before now?

25/1 tomorrow yet the only horse in the race rated higher than him on RPR’s is the favourite Harry Angel, who is 5/4 from 3/1 without doing anything at all.

Something doesn’t add up with Gustav Klimt and if he did win tomorrow it would be Aidan’s biggest balls up since Dunkirk in running him as a miler nearly all his life.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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I reckon it’s 7 lbs weight for age Ham.

The year older Seventh Heaven carried 9 st 2 lbs in last years’ Arc to Enable’s 8 st 9 lbs.

Crystal Ocean carries 9 st 10 lbs on Saturday with Enable on 9 st 2 lbs. If she can’t beat him on those terms then when can she?

A lot may depend on whether Crystal Ocean truly improved 7 lbs in the King George. We saw Salouen get an 8 lbs rise on OR’s out of the blue for running Cracksman close. I was pilloried for suggesting that might be a fluke result but the handicapper has already retreated 4 lbs from the mark he gave and Salouen has run 11 and 9 lbs below his new RPR high figure from Epsom on his last two starts. Assessors do make mistakes and it’s spotting them early that saves you money long term.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Waldenstern was stuffed by Kadar in the end today.

The Gosden colt isn’t the fastest looking of horses and he took a lot of stoking up and a long time to get past the leaders. It looked like he might score unconvincingly but the Karl Burke newcomer Kadar came forward to join him and then go away to win it.

Kadar is an expensive Scat Daddy and obviously looks atypical at the trip today. He was receiving 9 lbs from Waldenstern with the jockey’s claim today but that was known beforehand and Waldenstern was still 4/7 Fav, so his supporters will be disappointed.

I said earlier in the thread that I thought Waldenstern may be a Leger type and would perhaps need a strong stamina test, a notion that seemed reinforced today. Waldenstern’s first race has not worked out thus far with all four to run from it unplaced and/or beaten further next time.

BET365 pushed Waldenstern out to 66/1 for The Derby in the aftermath of today’s race.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Jack, I take very little heed of the times in these very early races for youngsters, it’s just about the least relevant factor for me.

With Persian King, the issue is more about only raising him 8 lbs from his debut run. I think that is nonsense myself. How far does he need to win by to get a decent rise?

Bruce Wayne ran behind Ten Sovereigns on debut, finished 6th and was rated 68 to the winner’s 103. They faced off again the following week and Bruce Wayne got roughly eight lengths closer. Instead of looking at the context of the form, the assessor has blindly raised Ten Sovereigns 11 lbs, meaning that Bruce Wayne had to go up 32 lbs. I think that’s complete bollocks in 7 days.

Bruce Wayne has run twice, been 6th and 2nd, yet is rated 100. Roaring Lion won his 1st two last year, the second by six lengths yet the Racing Post rated him only 92. Monty F*** as they say in Glasgow.

The Round Tower third is a horse who has not run well beyond 5F and was a blatant pacemaker. The second Fav Servalan was a complete flop and Mick Channon’s Jungleinthebungle has already had his official mark downgraded. It looks a very ropey rating from the Racing Post.

How can Bruce Wayne improve 32 lbs in a week, yet Andre Fabre’s horse only improve 8 lbs in romping away by six lengths? At this rate Bruce Wayne will be better than Frankel by season’s end.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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