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For me, Too Darn Hot keeps winning like a stayer.
Yes, he gets there but his main rival in the Champagne Stakes ran like a crab and I thought it was a typical example of Mark Johnston overrating his horses and picking the wrong race to progress the horse’s career.
Yet again the trainer was Bullish but it turned out to be Bull***t in the end. An easy lay for me from the start and I am still shaking my head at Coral going 7/2 Dark Vision when betting opened and there was still a decent sized field potentially.
Yet again, over in France Persian King dots up by five lengths, showing a sharper turn of speed to the Guineas favourite. The son of Kingman used his big frame and elastic stride to stretch away and put the race to bed in a matter of strides. There was a rare ease to his victory and he is France’s best 2YO for me by some way. I reckon he will gain revenge over Anodor in the Lagardere and prove better value than some of those in a ridiculously priced Guineas.
These bookies odds compilers are getting a stiffy over almost anything that moves and pricing them up like Group 1 winners for winning an egg and spoon race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve said all along that Dee Ex Bee is a consistent horse but only at a certain level. That would be why he hasn’t won a decent race yet.
If you leave his Derby RPR of 119 out of the figures, the other 5 of his last 6 runs read as follows:-
110, 110, 110, 111, 109
Isn’t that confirmation that the horse is a consistent trier at a level of about 110?
Why would anyone defy the body of evidence and try to insist that the horse is capable of reproducing the Derby figure, away from Epsom of all place, a track where I never bet outside of the Derby meeting.
I think Dee Ex Bee kept on well enough today at one pace but it can be the case that a horse is weakening in relation to the winner and placed horses but seeming to keep on in relation to the ones weakening more dramatically.
Old Persian ran much more comfortably than Dee Ex Bee for a lot of the way but he was the one horse in the race who patently didn’t stay. He may have more to give back at a mile and a half and he may win something decent one day.
Loxley at 6/1 was a mystery to me. I have never rated the horse at all and can recall stating early doors that he wasn’t one for me. He was pretty feeble today, total nonsense as value. The Pentagon has gone nowhere this year and ran his normal anonymous race.
I remain puzzled that I backed Kew Gardens at 6/1 for the Lingfield Derby trial only to see him run poorly at odds-on, looking like an operation for a stiff anus was in order. Give the horse his due, he seemed to get his mojo back by slackening his buttocks in pursuit of the sacrificial pacemaker, Nelson, who has not run on his merits since Adam was a boy, and has looked more like the horse who won the Zetland in good style as a 2YO.
Not a bad St Leger overall but for me it’s usually a race that lies a bit under Group 1 quality year in year out.
Well done winners, Kew Garden returned at good value in the end. Loxley was the worst value in many a year. A barge dressed up as a speedboat if ever there was.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Jack, From my point of view the issue is more that I have usually already addressed and explained my thinking on the RPRs for certain horses somewhere else on the site and it gets wearisome having to repeat myself.
The other thing is that when I do put my case it generally makes no difference to the way you view a topic we are discussing and that makes it feel pointless from my side to put any time to it.
To explain my thinking on ratings a bit further, I generally take the view that a good 2YO will run somewhere between 85 and 90 on its first start. I will allow a few pounds under that and for Aidan O’Brien Galileo offspring you have to allow for a modest first time effort.
On s horse’s second start I feel a horse with the appropriate physical look can reach roughly 100 if it is training forward properly. On a horse’s third start, I feel a horse I view as having the right scope can improve again betweem 10 and 15 lbs.
After three runs I take the view that a 2YO has to begin improving in smaller amounts and, depending on the horse in question, I expect their limit to be 5 lbs and maybe as much as 7 lbs on occasion.
I would generally see the ceiling for the rating of any 2YO as 120,with perhaps a smidgin more on relatively rare occasions.
Coming into the 3YO season the higher a horse’s rating was at 2YO, the less scope it actually has for further improvement. This is down to the natural limitation on how good any horse can actually become. To be a top notcher at 3 a 120 rated 2YO needs to find another 7-10 lbs at 3YO, or later improving types can overtake them.
For an example, Saxon Warrior has been discussed as losing form because of the trips he’s been trying but it could just be that he’s remained static, as his rating for winning th Racing Post Trophy was 119 and his official rating now is 120 and that is five runs on from Doncaster last October and more than 10months later.
Anyhow that’s what I am basing my own rating for Persian King on and I feel the Racing Post have given him little or no credit for winning as far as he did, as easily as he did. It is my opinion that relying too much on the stopwatch in French racing in particular, and not allowing for having more to give will lead to being way off some of the time.
It used to be that jockeys would ease a horse to try to win by a smaller margin and preserve a better handicap mark but the official handicapper will take the ease of victory into consideration when allotting a new figure nowadays.
Hope that explains where I work from, for meithas proved better than taking bare figures with no context.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Jack, it’s a matter of common sense as much as anything. The Racing Post have their followers but they also have plenty of detractors. Some have called their ratings “Laughable”
When I see a horse I think is overrated or underrated on any ratings scale, I will point it out in order to advise anyone interested. It is only my opinion and this is a forum for opinions.
I get the impression you have an axe to grind with me and it’s frankly getting tedious having my opinion challenged on such a regular basis. I have tried to be polite and answer any queries but it’s becoming tiresome. For instance, I would much rather hear your opinion on tomorrow’s race and create some relevant dialogue, rather than get a lecture.
It is MY opinion that the notion of Persian King improving by only 2 lbs from run 1 to run 2 is ridiculous. He won easily by six lengths and if the Racing Post is going to stick strictly to the figures and rate Persian King as if he was all out to win and had nothing left to give then they will be reduced to giving totally inaccurate readings of a horse’s abilty.
Some people reading ratings will know that a horse is capable of more but there are less experienced people who don’t know how to apply context and they may take the figures as gospel. All I am doing is passing an opinion that might assist some people.
I don’t see anyone else really getting the grilling I get about my opinions and I do not go about grilling others about their input on the forum.
Never mind, I should be out of here after the Arc and people can feel free to do as they wish without my tuppenceworth, if it’s even worth that, in the way.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Decent looking clash on the cards tomorrow at Chantilly.
Persian King is set to go head to head with Freddy Head’s Lone Peak who made a stunning debut at Deauville last month when coming home seven lengths clear of his field.
Impossible to say what Lone Peak beat that day as nothing has run since from those who trailed him home that day. I did a write up about him but it was switched to this sub category seperately.
Anyway, the story is that Persian King was Fabre’s best 2YO despite his 84 RPR, while Lone Peak got a more generous 90 for his career opener. With 6l and 7l winners from last time clashing now, it should serve as a watershed race in terms of talent.
Ze Turf go for Lone Peak in their preview but I trust Fabre more of the two trainers and am hoping Persian King can prove the Racing Post wrong in the assessment that the son of Kingman only improved 2 lbs from his first run to the second.
King to rule for me at Chantilly.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Was it Dee Ex Bee’s true running at Goodwood.?
He ran right up to his best on Racing Post figures Nathan. In fact, the figure of 111 they gave him is his second best figure ever with them.
The problem was that he was awarded 119 for his Derby run and he’s looked to run below that since. Who is to say that he was actually that good that day? If you give him 111 for the Derby, he looks the model of consistency.
Argue the Derby form up all you want but it doesn’t change the fact that Masar simply hasn’t run again, Saxon Warrior ran at the trip again in the Irish Derby and was an expensive failure as Evens favourite, but he still ran better than Dee Ex Bee who was 7th. Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion went on to tackle shorter while Kew Gardens reinvented himself as a come from behind horse chasing Nelson’s pace setting.
Dee Ex Bee has to cope with a rejuvenated Kew Gardens, who has a pull at the weights with Old Persian now. Dee Ex Bee finished behind Old Persian in the Irish Derby and has work to do with him after the Godolphin colt narrowly outdid Cross Counter following that gelding fairly readily disposing of Dee Ex Bee on his previous start.
Neither Dee Ex Bee or Old Persian are guaranteed to get home based on breeding but the Godolphin runner has a 6/10 strike rate, compared to Dee Ex Bee on 2/11 and in addition the best of the two wins was a class 2 conditions race at Epsom, where he has run well three times.
All of the entrants also have to cope with Lah Ti Dar, who was confirmed late in the day. Interestingly the Racing Post describe Dee Ex Bee as unexposed despite him tying with Kew Gardens for the most starts in the race with eleven apiece. If he is unexposed then what about Lah Ti Dar?
Lah Ti Dar probably beat trees last time but she did tear them apart and could be anything. I feel that in coming here she isn’t perhaps Arc material. Maybe if Enable and Cracksman were not in the same stable it might be different but for me I wouldn’t my horse pitched in against those two. I backed La Ti Dar for the Oaks and feel she would have been there, or thereabouts. I felt she was worth a saver at 10/3 but at 7/4 or so I just wonder about real, competitive experience being lacking at such short odds.
Dee Ex Bee is lacking in enough reasons to play him, it’s been a long season for Kew Gardens and although he was on my radar early for this, I went with Nelson instead in the belief that it might be soft on the day and although he will be there, he’ll be there to make sure the dubious stayers get well tested.
No surprise if Lah Ti Dar proves a shade classier than the usual slightly sub standard contenders for this poor relation of the other Classics.
Stop Press:- I heard a rumour that Delano Roosevelt is being pencilled in for a potential clash with Mo Farah in next year’s London Marathon. Nelson will be running to try to knock the kick out of Farah.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I only saw the race through replay but as I was watching it I felt the jockey on Pilaster was riding as if he had grass growing. Every time I thought it was about time he was asking for an effort he continued to just sit there as if he felt he had a strong kick to play late.
Not one for the career scrapbook to show the grandkids.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Dee Ex Bee is 20/1 with Coral on odds-checker. Ladbrokes go 16/1.
Not much sign of a single figure price so far.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
At the weights Pilaster should beat Horseplay and the Varian stable is having a good spell. On the down side it has been a very low key season for Roger, as he hasn’t had much involvement in the big meetings and top races. His 2YO’s have been underwhelming as well.
Andrew Balding has been in good form for a few weeks now and Horseplay has always looked a bit short of pace to me, perhaps this trip will help her. She has a low strike rate at first glance but she has been highly tried plenty of times. Sea Of Class fans will be looking for a nice run from Horseplay after the Balding filly ran behind her in the Yorkshire Oaks last time.
I can see why NWalton fancies Sizzling each-way, as she seems to have beem improving but I thought those were two weak races she won on her last two starts. She also has an incredible 19 runs under her belt already. Sort of hard to believe she has just started finding improvement after 8 runs at 2yo and 11 runs at 3yo. Another feature of her form is inconsistency of performance, with only four performances over 100 on RPR’s out of her 19 runs and only two from 11 as a 3YO.
I won’t play on this one but would probably side with Horseplay in the hope that the trip may wring some improvement.
Good luck Pants on the early odds
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sea of blue on Lah Ti Dar and a sea of red on Kew Gardens.
Lah Ti Dar is favourite now but it’s fairly narrowly. Kew Gardens is 9/4 in a place now.
Having backed La Ti Dar at 10/3 and Old Persian at 8/1, I’ll make a small profit if the filly wins and a decent profit if Old Persian wins. My Leger wins tend to come every third year, so after Capri last year, I am not really due again until 2020.
Anyone fancying La Ti Dar for the Arc will be concerned about the lack of Leger winners to go on and win the Arc. Almost kiss of death proportions.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Madhmoon had a nice way about him when picking up to win his maiden.
i think he looked fit and ready that day though so I would like to see how much he comes on from that debut race in this week’s run.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
In the Moyglare I couldn’t take Skitter Scatter as 9/2 Fav because she’s pretty exposed and her win last time has had some holes punched into it already. So Perfect and Just Wonderful were two fillies I felt might progress so I had an early fiver on each for the Guineas. They both flopped next time out but at least they have managed to get back on target to some extent.
Just Wonderful looked quite decent last time but not quite Group 1 class and this race is a furlong shorter. On the whole though she seems progressive and this isn’t the best renewal of the Moyglare. Having backed Just Wonderful last time, I had to stay with her here at 6/1 and hopefully she finishes most strongly this time. Hopefully Peach Tree runs well earlier at the meeting to bolster the form.
Just Wonderful 6/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Gosden said early doors that we wouldn’t see Lah Ti Dar at her best until she had a mile and a half and cut in the ground. That suggests the Leger should be a gettable distance.
I just get the feeling they don’t think the younger filly can cope with Enable in the Arc, so the Leger may be her main target this autumn.
I’ve done Lah Ti Dar as a saver but Old Persian is my main bet at 8/1.
Surely someone will go 2/1 Kew Gardens on Saturday morning?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Jack, those two are entered in both races. Paddy Power seem more keen on the idea that they go in the Group 2 race, hence the bigger odds.
I felt that they would run a pacemaker for Anthony Van Dyck, as a slow race would be his enemy I feel. Christmas seemed to set it up nicely last time but perhaps they want to try to get him a Group win in easier company.
Quorto was cut by Paddy Power to 7/4, so Hills are actually bigger on him now.
If Dark Vision goes to Doncaster for the Champagne, this may end up a virtual match race and I’ll be happy enough having 9/4.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Anthony Van Dyck is 10/11 Fav with Paddy Power but William Hill are offering 13/8 on the O’Brien colt.
Quorto is 15/8 with William Hill but Paddy Power are going 9/4 and they disagree again with Dark Vision who is 3’s with Billy Hilly yet 5/1 with Paddy Power.
I certainly can’t take Anthony Van Dyck at odds on, so it becomes a question of whether Quorto or Dark Vision represent some value.
Too Darn Hot seemed to establish a higher level of form in dismissing Dark Vision’s sparring partners with a clear margin of greater superiority over those who had faced Johnston’s colt earlier. Too Darn Hot isn’t here though and Dark Vision has won all three of his races, albeit that the form isn’t holding up great. I might have given him a go at 5/1 here, just because it’s a decent price but the reason I wasn’t on him last time was because of the Johnston factor and it concerns me somewhat that he came from almost last place at Goodwood, to pounce late and that can be a tough trick to keep pulling off.
Quorto was a cosy winner last time but the form hasn’t worked out well since. I got the impression a mile might help him in time. Quorto is narrowly the highest rated on RPR’s here but I don’t really trust that notion and it’s quite close in the ratings between the leading protagonists anyway.
Christmas has been progressing and gave Anthony Van Dyck a wee fright last time. Just one point behind the favourite on Racing Post Ratings, Christmas is 12/1, while his stablemate is odds-on.
All of the first three in the betting looked like strong finishers last time out, so could something pinch it from the front?
In the end I felt that Quorto had the most scope here and I also thought he might be the least likely to be outpaced in the early stages. He seemed a bit green still last time and I reckon he may be the one to stay on best past Christmas in the closing stages, enhancing his Guineas and Derby prospects in the process.
Quorto 9/4 (or better if available when more firms price the race up)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think there is a good chance Cracksman won’t go. If Enable is pleasing the trainer leading up to the race then they may advise Cracksman’s team that he is unlikely to beat Enable.
For all that Cracksman has a big fan base, it is his Champion Stakes win on gutters that stands out as his sole outstanding performance. We have seen plenty of times that wide margin winners do not repeat the performance you might expect when returned to a sound surface.
I pretty much ruled Cracksman out from the two ante-post bets I had placed on him after the effort in beating Salouen. The Prince Of Wales at Royal Ascot supported my notion and he did not run in King George QE II.
Cracksman will indeed get credit if he wins the Arc but it’s not a question of “Getting the credit he deserves” for he simply hasn’t done enough yet to be deserving. He was beaten in two Derbies last season and then had his day in the Champion Stakes. He needs more performances like that one to prove he deserves an Arc win. He’s just not there yet.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think it’s wise avoiding Too Darn Hot. A good win from the Gosden horse sees him short for the Guineas.
The trouble with him going Guineas first is that the question will arise whether he will stay, should he have the pace for a Guineas. Is the Guineas or Derby the more important race to win for connections?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
