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Dawn Approach "probably" won’t win the Derby. But as he’s 5/2 and not odds-on, I’d say he stands a better than 29% chance of winning. Around a fair 7/4 to 13/8 (36 to 38%) shot I’d say at this stage.
Take the 5/2.
Probably will, settles sweetly, travels well and never looked like stopping.could well go offclose to odds on.
Judgement day on my ante post acca.
Hurricane Fly @11/2
Bobs Worth @6s
Quevega @Evs
Sprinter Sacre @5/4
Dawn Approach @7s£5 pays just over £8k
Managed to lay £2k on DA @6/4 in the week.
Will get £5k if he wins. C’mon Jim, make my day!
Chiching! Never realy a moment to worry! Impressive win both you and the horse!
Looking very competitive very good novices this year. Not yet started my 2014 AP bets
so havent picked yet.I think he’d win the King George on decent ground. Never a Gold Cup horse.
Simonsig a Ryanair horse probably
My thoughts exactly. I cannot see why this horse could not get 3 miles on good ground. Not a Gold Cup horse, but Like Kauto and other truly class animals, they are versatile because they are so far ahead of the rest.
Could he not win the King George and Champion Chase each season for the next 3 years?
Will Simonsig even take him on?!
Zip
he won’t run in the king george. henderson was pretty admanant after the race that he’s an out and out speedball, and was even reluctant to the idea of stepping him up to two miles four at aintree.
if it’s not broke why fix it? heaven forbid we have the same arguments about distance that we had about frankel
Yup we probably will, with regards to the argument.
But I agree with both sides of that argument if that`s possible.
yup, had second leg of my double on Boston bob, and even though he is known to stay well looked like they were closing him down as they were going to the last. But still, would have liked him to give me a run for my money though up that hill as maybe he had a bit left to give as well.
Wow, just wow!
would be interesting to see him go further as looked like he could go another round after that but unlikely. Agree with previous post a would be nice to see him in a KG perhaps in a couple of years.
I hope your gut feeling is wrong this time elgransenor1 and he does win as you hope.
It was just something about him on Dewhurst day that caught my attention, that there was more to come..nothing was going to catch him once he committed for home.
Just a little stat to back him up:On the 4 times the Dewhurst has been run on Good to Soft Ground since Teofilo won in 2006 the times have been as follows:-
Teofilo 2006 – 1m.26.12
New Approach 2007 – 1m.25.29
Frankel 2010 – 1m 25.73Dawn Approach 2012 – 1m 24.00
I wish I had a breakdown of the time he took to run that last furlong…still hopeful he will win the Guineas..Jac
Interesting stats I must say, I only hope he will be riden prominently as at 2 he didn’t have quite a turn of foot as we agree.
I liked dawn approach as a two year old but for me he’s a big lay for the 2000 guineas.
if you watch his races he often takes a great deal of stoking up to hit full stride and doesn’t have an instant turn of foot. also my feeling is he’s hasn’t beaten much.
assuming the guineas is run on spring ground I can imagine one or two quickening past him.
besides how many champion two year olds have failed to train on at three? too many I think!
Dawn Approach is built like a sprinter and agreed he is slow in finding his stride, but when he does he flys.
In the Dewhurst at Newmarket he did all his best work up the punishing uphill finish of the Rowley Mile.
In the space of 1 furlong from home he managed to spread wings to take control of the race and from where I was standing in the High Grandstand looking down on the race he looked very impressive even being eased at the finish, I don’t think anything will trouble him, I believe he’s going to take the race his dad was deniedRock of Gibralter, Sir Percy, Motivator, Authorized,
New Approach and of course Frankel all come to mind as champion 2 years olds who have trained on quite nicely in the past 12 years so am hoping that Dawn Approach does train on and wins the 2000 Guineas in style as I’m a great fan of New Approach and Jim Bolger…
I remain optimistic JacYes, I must agree here DA does not pickup immediately but when he does reach full throttle up the final furlong of the rowley mile, well unless the jock gives him too much to do Id expect him to be going away.
Does anyone else agree that there was a jockey error on Flemenstar at the second last fence?
I understand the tactics of dropping him in this time but at the second last Flemenstar put in a superb jump whilst Sir Des Champs was less fluent. Flemenstar jumped upsides and his momentum was going to take him into the lead but the jockey took a massive pull on the horse to keep him behind SDC.
To me it really killed the horses natural impetus and SDC kept his run up the inside, cutting off the corner, and then stole a bit of a march on Flemenstar going to the last. There was no difference between the two up the run-in.
Like I say, I understood the new tactics for the race but I felt at the crusial time he should have let Flemenstar have his head rather than hold him back.
Anyone agree?
Yes, I remeber that point and may be inclined to agree he should have let him go at his rythm from then but as you say they were over cautious and that not to say he would have won anyway.
His Arc ride on Dancing Brave was class personified. Few jockeys would have had the balls of steel necessary to pull off such a tactic.
Greville had the balls in the Derby H, difference being they went a slow pace at Epsom. Dancing Brave left to try and make up ground while those in front were also still quickening.
Eddery fortunate the early pace was good in the Arc.
A lot of punters see a horse coming from last to first and believe it is somehow more difficult or more meritorious. Yes it is, when early fractions are slow. Dancing Brave did extraordinarily well to come so close to winning the Derby. However, being dropped out the back in a strongly run race can sometimes even flatter a horse. Early on, both Dancing Brave and Bering were held up towards the back of the Arc field. With Longchamp’s track record smashed, there’s no doubt the pace was fast. In this case I would not say the result flattered Dancing Brave, but tactics certainly did not hinder either first or second. To believe The Brave would’ve won by further ridden nearer the pace is wrong.
Pace in a race tells punters whether prominent or hold up horses were favoured.
The difficulty is irrelevant here, you could even argue had he been further up with the pace he may not have won. Take an easy example of Zenyata, if she races a donkey or a Ferrari(using extremes here of course) she would come and take the race at the line as that was her style of racing that suited her so if she beat a the donkey by one length it would be hard to measure that form as you keep measuring in lengths she beat the rest by. Its basically upto the jockeys to sit pretty until he feels its time to kick to get their in time or a stride or two earlier before the line, which was the case imo with Dancing brave hence my argument with you ! 1 1/2 length victory analysis. just my perspective.
All people who form ratings will differ in their opinion to some degree. The reason TF ratings differ so much with the official ratings is down to the slippage in official ratings. When the official rankings were first done in 1977 they used the same scale as Timeform. Hence the rating for Dancing Brave was pretty similar. TF 140 Official 141. The difference is that Timeform have remained consistent and not allowed slippage and still rate to the same scale.
At the end of Dancing Brave’s write up in
Timeform Racehorses Of 1986
they added a
Postscript
criticising the International Classifications. I’ll reproduce it here in full but if any copyright issues please delete.
Postscript: In the International Classifications for three year olds published in December Dancing Brave is assessed more highly than any horse since the Classifications were introduced in the seventies. A different scale was adopted in 1986 – to "bring Classification figures into line with commercial ratings" – and Dancing Brave was given a figure of 141. We are well aware of the pitfalls of criticising the work of others – no-one is immune from the blunder, the error of judgement – but we cannot for the life of us understand how Dancing Brave is reckoned to have given Bering a 7 lb beating in the Trusthouse Forte Prix De l’Arc de Triomphe. Bering appears on 134, sharing second spot with Shahrastani, so the official handicappers have given Dancing Brave credit for what he did not do. On the official result of the Arc Dancing Brave comes out 3 lbs better than Bering and 4 lbs better than Shahrastani. As we have said we make the winning distance in the Arc nearer two lengths and have accordingly rated Dancing Brave 4 lbs superior to Bering and 5 lbs above Shahrastani (in our view the Classification underestimates the merit of the two last named). But we have no truck with anyone who tells us that on the form book Dancing Brave is entitled to be regarded 7 lb in front of any other horse in Europe in 1986.
In 29 years of reading Timeform Racehorses annuals I can not recall such strong criticism of an International rating. It’s only taken the International Classifications 27 years to realise.
1st Dancing Brave 3 8-11
2nd Bering 3 8-111.5 lengths
(Timeform rate it 2 lengths)
3rd Triptych 4 9-10.5 lengths
4th Shahrastani 3 8-11
short head
5th Shardari 4 9-4
neck
Please justify the 7 lbs Dancing Brave is rated ahead of Bering TAPK.
If I may just add to this Dancing Brave came from virtualy last to first. When a horse is run like that imo you cannot factor in winning distance accurately by any mean as point being the horse is run to get up at the line and not to win by x number of lenghts.
Surpised no mention of Jezki, was very impressiv on last run and jockey expects him to get even better with good ground was à bit surprised to see 6/1 after his last run but has been backed into 4/1 i think he would be even shorter based on what we’ve seen if not for the unpredicibility of the supreme. Can he get me off to à good start at the festival for once?
Yes he has got to learn to settle to have any chance at the GC, if not this year maybe next as they do learn to settle better with age and experince so maybe GC next year?
Very much looking forward to h tackling the hennessy and you think he’d get better ground, im still on the giving him another shout before saying he got no shout at the GC this year but either which way he goes at cheltenham it will be fascinating to see.
Looks likely he will be given another shot at 3 mile which iny opinion is only fair.
Altough would welcome a crack at SS though thats no good for my AP bet.
Casey apperently sending flem to the hennesy for another crack at three miles. The jockey seems to think he can get three miles, I wouldnt bury him just yet as most people seem to be.
Havent rewatched the race but apperently pulled hard plus the soft ground. Travelled so sweatly bit surprised he been buried already he may very well come back into the equation after the irish hennesy.
Well on good ground you`d think Flemenstar would have won with a couple of lenght. Yeah I would say he was a shoe in for the ryanair should he run but with better ground expected in the GC I wouldn`t say Flemenstar would be without a chance. Either was tough call to make for connections!
