Best Bet 2013

[SolarEclipse]

My first thread so any input will be appreciated.

Whats`s your best bet for 2013, with minimum odds 2/1?

I figure cheltenahm will play popular here as If I had to pick one mine will come from ther as well. To name a few I have been looking at dawn approach comes to mind, I think 7/2 is quite good value on him, you can argue he hasnt been overly impressive in some runs but it appears his from ahs alway been backed up and I think hed improve at three (just a hunch) and agree with some that kingsbarn s looks to prefer soft. the I have big break and viztoria in the 1000 but looks quite open for now. looking forward to camelot run but dont think ill be getting any value there even though disappointing toward the end of the season.

now to chelteham I vermuch fancy finian`s rainbow for the ryanair at 6/1 but as sprinter sacre (at enens you could argue you are getting double the odds for all chelteham runners) will probaly scare every one away from the QM, the ryanaie will be quite competive i figure.

that brings me to my selection, I realy fancy hurricane flyer at 5/1, some of my best bets have come from forgiving a bad run which i belive led to the next run been overprice and I am inclide to believe this will be the case here. I do realy like gradouet though and did think christmas had come early when I saw he was 5/2 for the StanJames hurdle (which turned out to be right) last year but got to give it the the hurricane!

[TomBarkley87]

Gold Cup 2013

First Lieutenant 20/1

Really fancied this lad for last seasons’ RSA, where he was very keen early on and pulled hard for Davy Russell, basically ruining his chances before halfway. Despite this, he still managed 2nd to Bobs Worth, and I’m confident that if he settles better in the Gold Cup he can reverse the form. His winter form is always mediocre at best which doesn’t put me off, just makes his price swell The combination of decent ground and Cheltenham seem to make him improve by over a stone, so I’m not about to give up on him yet.

[CJ80]

2000 Guineas

Hey new to the forum and ante-post bets so take it easy iv had a look at this race and the one i like is Mark Johnstons STEELER at 33/1, won the royal lodge possibly not against the strongest field but clocked a fast time, 2nd to kingsbarns in the racing post which sent kingsbarns straight to second fav 6/1 behind dawn approach, i know hes been quiet heavily raced as a 2yo and spoke of as a potential derby horse but im hoping he goes to Newmarket, hes a real battler and will improve as a 3yo. i really like CRISTOFORO COLOMBO from the o’brien yard hes been unlucky since the coventry stakes which impressed me, running on soft ground etc, i think a step up to a mile on good ground or better will really suit him. my only problem is the likes of MARS who has been heavily spoke of as a real talent and KINGSBARNS possibly turning up among others so im unsure if he will turn up, but CRISTOFORO COLOMBO is a nice horse and at 25/1 is a very good price IMO. The 2008 2000gns looks real interesting.. the likes of 1st place HENRYTHENAVIGATOR (cristoforo colombo), 2nd NEW APPROACH (Dawn approach) and 4th RAVEN’S PASS (steeler). These young nippers will hopefully battle it out for there fathers.

[Triptych]

Good post which probably should have gone into the Horse Racing Section, but hey my Best Bet for 2013 is also in the
2000 Guineas and

have to agree with Solar Eclipse here:-

DAWN APPROACH at 7/2

wishing I had taken the 12/1 on offer last year.

Jim Bolger will have DA spot on for the big day to power up the Rowley Mile and nab the prize that Henry the Navigator denied his dad.

Whilst Steeler is a very good horse don’t think he is quite Group 1 material. He beat Artigiano by 1 length in the Juddmonte at Newmarket last September proving he could get up the hill in great style, but Artigiano had only managed 5th place to Dawn Approach in the Coventry at Royal Ascot and Steeler could not beat Kingsbarns in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster in October.

Kingsbarns looks to me more of a Derby type but should definitely not be ruled out, especially if the ground on Guineas Day is soft or heavy.

However, fingers tightly crossed it’s DAWN APPROACH all the way for my money and looking forward to being there on the day to cheer him home. Jac

Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...

[JJMSports]

Dawn Approach 2000 Guineas.

[Grimes]

Red Sherlock in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper.

[elgransenor1]

I liked dawn approach as a two year old but for me he’s a big lay for the 2000 guineas.

if you watch his races he often takes a great deal of stoking up to hit full stride and doesn’t have an instant turn of foot. also my feeling is he’s hasn’t beaten much.

assuming the guineas is run on spring ground I can imagine one or two quickening past him.

besides how many champion two year olds have failed to train on at three? too many I think!

[Grimes]

Sorry about Red Sherlock, SolarEclipse. My next best would be Attaglance in the Centennial (hoping I haven’t put the mockers on that..!).

[stevecaution]

I like the chance of Just The Judge in the 1000 Guineas. Charlie Hills had a modest season last year but this looks like a filly with a future. Three wins from three starts over 7F culminating with a win in The Rockfel. She defeated colts in her second start, seems to go on good or softish ground and has finished her races well on each occasion. Certain to get a mile in my opinion, I think she will improve this year and Duffman has "A bad feeling" about Certify at the head of the market. I tipped her up at 20/1 and you can still get 16/1 in a few places, although she is only 10/1 with William Hill. If she were trained by Aiden O’ Brien she would be favourite for the race.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Triptych]

I liked dawn approach as a two year old but for me he’s a big lay for the 2000 guineas.

if you watch his races he often takes a great deal of stoking up to hit full stride and doesn’t have an instant turn of foot. also my feeling is he’s hasn’t beaten much.

assuming the guineas is run on spring ground I can imagine one or two quickening past him.

besides how many champion two year olds have failed to train on at three? too many I think!

Dawn Approach is built like a sprinter and agreed he is slow in finding his stride, but when he does he flys.
In the Dewhurst at Newmarket he did all his best work up the punishing uphill finish of the Rowley Mile.
In the space of 1 furlong from home he managed to spread wings to take control of the race and from where I was standing in the High Grandstand looking down on the race he looked very impressive even being eased at the finish, I don’t think anything will trouble him, I believe he’s going to take the race his dad was denied

Rock of Gibralter, Sir Percy, Motivator, Authorized,
New Approach and of course Frankel all come to mind as champion 2 years olds who have trained on quite nicely in the past 12 years so am hoping that Dawn Approach does train on and wins the 2000 Guineas in style as I’m a great fan of New Approach and Jim Bolger…
I remain optimistic Jac

Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...

[SolarEclipse]

I liked dawn approach as a two year old but for me he’s a big lay for the 2000 guineas.

if you watch his races he often takes a great deal of stoking up to hit full stride and doesn’t have an instant turn of foot. also my feeling is he’s hasn’t beaten much.

assuming the guineas is run on spring ground I can imagine one or two quickening past him.

besides how many champion two year olds have failed to train on at three? too many I think!

Dawn Approach is built like a sprinter and agreed he is slow in finding his stride, but when he does he flys.
In the Dewhurst at Newmarket he did all his best work up the punishing uphill finish of the Rowley Mile.
In the space of 1 furlong from home he managed to spread wings to take control of the race and from where I was standing in the High Grandstand looking down on the race he looked very impressive even being eased at the finish, I don’t think anything will trouble him, I believe he’s going to take the race his dad was denied

Rock of Gibralter, Sir Percy, Motivator, Authorized,
New Approach and of course Frankel all come to mind as champion 2 years olds who have trained on quite nicely in the past 12 years so am hoping that Dawn Approach does train on and wins the 2000 Guineas in style as I’m a great fan of New Approach and Jim Bolger…
I remain optimistic Jac

Yes, I must agree here DA does not pickup immediately but when he does reach full throttle up the final furlong of the rowley mile, well unless the jock gives him too much to do Id expect him to be going away.

[JJMSports]

Sorry about Red Sherlock, SolarEclipse. My next best would be Attaglance in the Centennial (hoping I haven’t put the mockers on that..!).

Not running, should be one almighty prospect for Pond House though.

[elgransenor1]

I liked dawn approach as a two year old but for me he’s a big lay for the 2000 guineas.

if you watch his races he often takes a great deal of stoking up to hit full stride and doesn’t have an instant turn of foot. also my feeling is he’s hasn’t beaten much.

assuming the guineas is run on spring ground I can imagine one or two quickening past him.

besides how many champion two year olds have failed to train on at three? too many I think!

Dawn Approach is built like a sprinter and agreed he is slow in finding his stride, but when he does he flys.
In the Dewhurst at Newmarket he did all his best work up the punishing uphill finish of the Rowley Mile.
In the space of 1 furlong from home he managed to spread wings to take control of the race and from where I was standing in the High Grandstand looking down on the race he looked very impressive even being eased at the finish, I don’t think anything will trouble him, I believe he’s going to take the race his dad was denied

Rock of Gibralter, Sir Percy, Motivator, Authorized,
New Approach and of course Frankel all come to mind as champion 2 years olds who have trained on quite nicely in the past 12 years so am hoping that Dawn Approach does train on and wins the 2000 Guineas in style as I’m a great fan of New Approach and Jim Bolger…
I remain optimistic Jac

maybe i’m playing devil’s advocate but does he have that much scope? also his achilles heel of not being able to quicken instantly was what did for his sire new approach, when he was chinned by henry the navigator in the same race.

I hope he does win, but i’ve got a rather strong gut feeling saying he won’t.

[Grimes]

Sorry about Red Sherlock, SolarEclipse. My next best would be Attaglance in the Centennial (hoping I haven’t put the mockers on that..!).

Not running, should be one almighty prospect for Pond House though.

I think so, JJM.

[Grimes]

Sorry about Red Sherlock, SolarEclipse. My next best would be Attaglance in the Centennial (hoping I haven’t put the mockers on that..!).

Not running, should be one almighty prospect for Pond House though.

I think so, JJM.

[Triptych]

I hope your gut feeling is wrong this time elgransenor1 and he does win as you hope.

It was just something about him on Dewhurst day that caught my attention, that there was more to come..nothing was going to catch him once he committed for home.
Just a little stat to back him up:

On the 4 times the Dewhurst has been run on Good to Soft Ground since Teofilo won in 2006 the times have been as follows:-

Teofilo 2006 – 1m.26.12
New Approach 2007 – 1m.25.29
Frankel 2010 – 1m 25.73

Dawn Approach 2012 – 1m 24.00

I wish I had a breakdown of the time he took to run that last furlong…still hopeful he will win the Guineas..Jac

Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...

[SolarEclipse]

I hope your gut feeling is wrong this time elgransenor1 and he does win as you hope.

It was just something about him on Dewhurst day that caught my attention, that there was more to come..nothing was going to catch him once he committed for home.
Just a little stat to back him up:

On the 4 times the Dewhurst has been run on Good to Soft Ground since Teofilo won in 2006 the times have been as follows:-

Teofilo 2006 – 1m.26.12
New Approach 2007 – 1m.25.29
Frankel 2010 – 1m 25.73

Dawn Approach 2012 – 1m 24.00

I wish I had a breakdown of the time he took to run that last furlong…still hopeful he will win the Guineas..Jac

Interesting stats I must say, I only hope he will be riden prominently as at 2 he didn’t have quite a turn of foot as we agree.

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