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Poor start but over a longer period I hope to show a profit as has been the case, short periods mean little. Today I have spotted two lays that look strong.
2.05 Cheltenham. Verdana Blue a lay at 3.15. Has two strong opponents here who look more likely to win.
2.15 Ripon. Maggies Angel a lay at 3.10. First time out fillies from this sire are 0 wins from 54 attempts.2.35 Remember Forever has had a few tries at this track and disappoints. A lay at 4.4
Hi VTC
Laying over jumps is my favourite area really. The obvious dannger of that was shown in that last race yesterday, a 3 horse race and one takes another out leaving the one you laid, ouch.
I really try to avoid 3 horse races, and even 4 ones to be honest, but still get drawn in.
I’ve been laying short ones for a couple of years now, I eek out a steady profit, nothing special.
I had nothing to lay today, tomorrow will have something, not many days do I get a blank one.
Some Finish in the 4.50 is a poor price in this, would prefer softer ground. A lay at 3.55.
I don’t very often lay in Novice Hurdles but one today has plenty of form in the book with a number of negatives. 2.00 Ravens Hill. A lay at 4.3.
Thanks VTC., thanks for taking an interest.
Mixed fortunes with the first two, but most of these will be around the 3/1 or less point in the betting, so some are going to win, when none of them do, I will be on an island somewhere and forums won’t be a priority
Today the strongest lay I can see is Saffron Prince at Towcester (3.50). Quite a few slight negatives, decent ground, Right Handed, Galloping Track.
Enough niggles in each area to make a horse priced at about 2.78 worth taking on.
Amazingly todays times suggest it could easily be proper GOOD ground by the off and might not suit Vyta’s abundant stamina.
Newbury (Fri)
Rails: Changes to Race distances1st race plus 85yds Hurdle
2nd Race plus 57yds Chase
3rd Race plus 75yds Chase
4th Race plus 150yds Hurdle
5th Race plus 75yds Chase
6th Race plus 150yds Hurdle
7th Race plus 113yds HurdleYet arctic fire is left at 166? If Faugheen were a handicapper a 2lb rise for beating a 166 horse by 15 lengths when ratings only entitle him to win by 8 would be considered a very lenient rise.
Thats true, it seems at the top end he has taken a careful view.
RPR gave Faugheen a rating of 176 for yesterdays run, using my RPR to BHA conversion table, he ran to a BHA mark of 164.
Conversion table calculated from a database of 33,000+ races using SPSS.
RPR Conv:
https://web.cloud.virginmedia.com/?shareObject=dec5a240-b79a-28ad-906f-137f3092c597
Mike.
Faugheen gone up 2lb to 176
http://www.goracing.ie/HRI/Racing-Statistics/NH-Ratings/?type=nh<r=F
A couple of observations, you have not read my post, and so have not comprehended what i have asked you. No one seems remotely interested either way as you get no responses or interest on this thread for me to be bothered to go into the subject with any degree of depth. In fact any post I make on this forum, not you personally, is completely ignored or met with a kind of defensive paranoia i’ve no time for.
I’ll leave you with it to be honest, you clearly don’t want questions or input of any kind, you just seem to want to show how smart you think you are. Thats no problem for me, but anyone who thinks this forum is the best is way out with the assessment, its leagues behind unfortunatley, i’m sorry to say.
The Racing Post trainerform rating isn’t very good. For instance Anthony Honeyball has a RTF [run to form] rating of just 29 today, but has won a class 2 at Cheltenham with Lily Waugh and a Class 2 Novice with Regal Encore from his last half dozen runners. The 29 figure suggests his horses are running below form, they clearly aren’t. Its a pointless figure if it doesn’t reflect what it is supposed to. They need to scrap it and come up with something a deal better
That wasn’t the point i was making really. I was asking how do you know what distance the standard times equate to, because when they are compiled it will be from races varying in distance. A 2 mile distance could be a furlong different from meeting to meeting, so any standard times derived will be over differing distances.
I’ll use a small example. If you are creating a standard time for a distance that is officially 2 miles, you then take 30 races and find a median for that distance, it might be 3 minutes 30 seconds. The median distance though is only 1 mile 7.5 furlongs. So your 2 mile standard is actually a 1mile 7.5 furong standard time. You then do figures for a day where the distance is reduced from 2 miles to 1 mile 7.5 furlongs. If you reduce your standard time from what you believe is a 2 mile standard time you would change it too much because the median distance of your standard time is already reflecting 1 mile 7.5 furlongs.
John
If you believe the handicap system is flawed then you should be celebrating, if you can find something better. Run your own way of handicapping and benefit from it by betting horses you believe are wrongly handicapped. If it is flawed and your way is better, then i would think its a punters dream. Why would you want anything changing?
