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I am not a typical punter and only bet when I go racing a couple of times a year. I love the spectacle of NH racing. Recent results suggest the current methodology of handicapping should be scrapped and replaced with something that is understandable to the general public i.e. it should not be based on looking at tea leaves or what side of the bed I get out of. I’ll give you a few examples based on the last few days racing:-
Pears Legend carrying 10.7 wins and down the field is Owen na View carrying 11.3. Prior to this race Pears Legend had winnings of 69k and Oswen na View only 27k so the handicapping can only be a very arbitrary basis.
The same can be said for the following picked at random
Village Vic 10.0 41k Dr phoenix 10.5 30k
Lily Waugh 10.11 39k The Govaness 11.12 36k
Solstice Star 10.11 16k Mad Jack Mytton 11.12 13kIt would be more logical to base the handicap on prize money won and deduct say 10% pa of that amount for each year that has elapsed so for example if as a 5 year old the horse had won 20k as an 8 year old that 20 k for handicap purposes would be 16k. At least we’d end up with a basis understandable to everyone.
John, it couldn’t work. It would mean that a horse like Aurora’s Encore (725k winnings) would be giving lumps of weight to Coneygree (450k winnings), even though Coneygree is, using the current benchmark of official ratings, almost 30lbs superior.
An extreme example perhaps, but the winner of a major handicap would often be rated (on your scale) higher in the weights than a Grade 1 winner.
The official handicapping system we have in this country is the best in the world, run by Phil Smith and his team of handicappers, who have to be some of the clearest people in the game.
The object of the exercise is not to make the analysis of horse racing easier for the punters, or you end up with the scenario of no bookmakers.
Looking at one of your examples “Village Vic”.
Village Vic beat his stable companion Champagne West by 4½ lengths receiving 14lbs from him, which equates to my lbs per length figure to 3.5lbs, if they had run off level weights he wouldn’t have won, hence the need for official ratings sliding scale.
In France you have horses in grade 1 races where they carry only 10-8, in this country they would carry +14lbs more, we could adopt the American claiming race structure, the problem here would be most of the horses would never win a race.
Mike.
It would unfairly penalise well beaten but placed horses in valuable races, and most probably reduce the field sizes of those races as a consequence. And many of them are poorly enough subscribed as it is.
The Claiming system has it merits, but the culture of racehorse ownership is different in the UK to the USA.
Anyway, with the introduction of FFos Las, Flat racing at Wetherby, Tapeta at Wolves, Chelmsford reopening, the new aw track at Newcastle, there are enough changes imo.
Continual improvement of the current system is the best way forward imo.
imo Other than refusing to give more horses handicap marks (when too tenderly handled) – can not see anything wrong with the British handicapping system.
Value Is EverythingCan you explain why Bob Ford, who won at Ffos Las today and has been racing in Class 1 and 2 handicaps and won a Class 2 handicap at FFos Las earlier this year is rated only 3 lbs more than Cloudy Copper, who came second 11 lengths adrift, and has never won a chase.
Can you explain why Bob Ford, who won at Ffos Las today and has been racing in Class 1 and 2 handicaps and won a Class 2 handicap at FFos Las earlier this year is rated only 3 lbs more than Cloudy Copper, who came second 11 lengths adrift, and has never won a chase.
When a horse has produced a far better hurdles performance than chasing and been very lightly raced over fences (only 4 spaced out runs in a year)… Suggests the reason for Cloudy Copper not yet running to hurdles form is more to do with fragility than being better at the other code. Therefore, understandable why Cloudy Copper is given a chase mark judged primarily on his hurdles form. Once running a fair amount of times, if his chase performances are still worse than hurdles… then (and only then) should the handicapper rightfully relent.
Value Is EverythingA graded system would be preferable as advocated by Mark Johnston, the further up the pyramid you go the more money you race for. In fact I can’t think of many drawbacks particularly when compared to handicaps. We don’t need any more claimers, they are largely uncompetitive.
Why do you think it is unfair John, that horses are given ratings for what they’re thought capable of (given optimum conditions)?
Value Is EverythingWhy do you think it is unfair John, that horses are given ratings for what they’re thought capable of (given optimum conditions)?
If horses are given ratings for what they’re thought capable of, then every horse should have different ratings for various trips and ground conditions. As far as I know this isn’t the case.
Another handicapping weakness is the fact that the mark allotted doesn’t take the horses’ fitness into consideration. I’ve never seen the handicapper mentioning any weight related ratings, as he should do. Otherwise all horses would be equally fit at any time and almost exactly built. What would you describe a horse as “lightly framed” or “big chasing type”, if size and weight don’t matter?
Why do you think it is unfair John, that horses are given ratings for what they’re thought capable of (given optimum conditions)?
If horses are given ratings for what they’re thought capable of, then every horse should have different ratings for various trips and ground conditions. As far as I know this isn’t the case.
Another handicapping weakness is the fact that the mark allotted doesn’t take the horses’ fitness into consideration. I’ve never seen the handicapper mentioning any weight related ratings, as he should do. Otherwise all horses would be equally fit at any time and almost exactly built. What would you describe a horse as “lightly framed” or “big chasing type”, if size and weight don’t matter?
It is up to connections to get the horse fit and put it in to a race that provides “optimum conditions” Ex-Ruby. If connections want to try different ground or distance then it’s up to them. Punters can decide for themselves about whether the horse will be suited by conditions and how fit the horse is or likely to be. It does not matter how big the horse is, because it is allotted a rating on how good it is, not how big.
Horses can have different ratings for Turf and All Weather on the Flat, because it does not change.
Can not have different ratings for distance and going because they’re all to do with stamina/speed which is changable. ie A horse may be 10 lbs worse with a test of stamina at 2 miles than it is at the same trip with a test of speed. It could be good ground when the horse is entered (a possible test of speed) and heavy by off time (test of stamina). So how does it work? Do you suggest altering the prospective weights carried during the day, right up to off time? If so, how do you propose punters work out form when all the weights carried are changing by the minute? Do you propose the Racing Post prints 30 different race cards for each race? One for heavy; one for heavy, soft in places; one for soft, heavy in places… etc etc.
Value Is EverythingIt is disappointing that no one has been willing to explain the handicapping in the 5 examples mentioned in this topic. One post mentioned Cloudy Copper’s hurdle form as the reason for its high handicap. I had a look at it and it is nothing special- 2 victories in modest races where some of the opposition have gone on to be at best average handicappers.
Other sports especially cricket and rugby union have introduced technology to improve decision making. If there is no technology available to deal with the variable going conditions in NH at least the handicapper should be made to explain how decisions are reached.
It is disappointing that no one has been willing to explain the handicapping in the 5 examples mentioned in this topic. One post mentioned Cloudy Copper’s hurdle form as the reason for its high handicap. I had a look at it and it is nothing special- 2 victories in modest races where some of the opposition have gone on to be at best average handicappers.
Other sports especially cricket and rugby union have introduced technology to improve decision making. If there is no technology available to deal with the variable going conditions in NH at least the handicapper should be made to explain how decisions are reached.
Thought I had explained John.
What “technology” do you think can improve the handicap system? Hawkeye?
There is nothing similar to handicapping in Rugby Union or Cricket, I don’t see the best players weighed down with lead.
Handicapping/racing is an inexact science. Technology can not improve it.
Value Is EverythingI suppose there must be an element of rating the race rather than rating the horse
Cloudy Copper won a class 3 novice at Kempton…….the handicapper must have it in his mind that those races tend be won by 130s horses.
He then went on in a novice chase to finish 2nd giving 7 lbs to a 132 rated winner
With that evidence it would be a reasonable to start him in handicaps off a mark in the high 130s
He’s now been beaten 3 times in handicaps and is coming down the weights
It’s up to the punter to evaluate if he thinks a horse is fairly handicapped or not.
In March last year Owen Na View beat the then 125 rated Village Vic by an easy 11 lengths at Newbury when getting only 7 lbs from the runner-up. (I backed ONV that day). He went up from 118 to 132, reduced to 131 three starts later, going down by only a neck to the then 127 rated Gray Hession (winner since) trying to give GH 4 lbs. So seeming to confirm Owen Na View’s new mark a reasonable one. Both VV and GH have gone on to frank the form. However, ONV’s disappointed since and has come down to a mark of 123 before Saturday, only running off 126 because 10-00 is the minimum weight (3 lbs higher than its long handicap mark).
So considering he was so impressive off 118 (by an easy 11 lengths) in March and just touched off from 131 in June… Owen Na View looks to me capable of winning off his current mark if returning to form. I’ll be keeping an eye on the ground and a positive early market move, especially in the Spring.
What mark do you think would be a fair one John?
Value Is EverythingI would prefer our handicaps to cards of different value claimers.It is just a shame that consistent horses get punished and not rewarded.
On a different note Song Of Paradise who ran yesterday had been raised 24lb for finishing 3rd,quite a jump.If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
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