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Robert
Your last two posts display all that is unpleasant to me when reading UK forums. Patronising, condescending in the extreme. Both posts are full of retribution without giving an actual opinion of your own, bar sneering at others.
Lets hear your views without the rudeness shall we. How do you view Frankel regarding the split times?
Quoting those bare times has liitle relevance. The times only tell you how fast the ground is, only when you compare them to the other races on the day do they mean anything.
If you compare the GC to the Foxhunters then purely on time difference Long Run has a speed figure of about 173-175. This also ties in with a form rating from What A Friend who has never been greater than a 160 horse all his career.
this isn’t exactly what you are looking for but i bet the results are similar
using RSB freebie it shows that of 8668 forecast favourites, the number that actually started favourite was 5879.
68%
would be my answer
For 2nd favourites – 9492 forecast 2nd – of those, 1953 actually started favourite –
20%
KIPCHAK
1.00 Lingfield
all runs: 19%
Class 6: 234111613162011 [47%]
Other class: 71345137048388035086364415747578554955 [8%]Lingfield AW+Turf: 11110157811 [64%]
Other courses: 723434513704838835086361364416472507554955 [7%]When running at Lingfield in Class 6:
111111
Today he runs in Class 5,
BUT
its only a 0-65 which is technically a class 6. Most Class 5’s are 0-75.
He is on a winning mark after running in a series of higher class races.
Winston takes over today, he is 2/5 on him.
I make a serious profit on Racing, all it needs is hard work not contacts.
Most people I’ve heard gone skint are those that just read standard collateral form, either bet on inside info or try just back the best odds not the horse.
I think some people have made serious money with very good inside info, and lost with very bad inside info.
Fair enough, Slowhand. Not knocking the method, cherrypicking is ok at 10/1 but I’d still think 1-22 over 28 days is significant. There certainly appears to be a positive bias towards running within a month in this horses profile. The 3 runs at the Rasen 28 days plus were very poor efforts.
i didn’t take it as knocking at all Cavelino, all constructive criticism is welcome imo. I think you could have a point re the month break. If you just look at his form on slow ground and run the month, it backs up your point.
It depends on what weight is put on the interval aspect. To me its one of the less important aspects unless we are looking at extremes, but it might be something someone else sees as a real negative.
The thread title could be "Is Brain Surgery For Mugs" or "Is F1 Driving For Mugs" or any number of diffcult jobs.
Like anything else, if you don’t have a leaning for it maybe you should try something you are good at.
Its all about expectation level as it is in any other sphere, a Sunday morning footballer enjoys what he does without expecting to get signed by Man Utd.
The problem with punting is that many people EXPECT to win when in fact they have as much chance of doing that as the Sunday player has of playing for United.
Lower your expectations and just enjoy punting for what it is, a pastime with just a small hope of profit in the long run. That profit may or may not be increased with how much you put in, it may not be increased simply because you don’t have a leaning for punting.
KERCABELLEC
0-20 in last 20 runs after a break of more than 28 days. 63 days today. Only in first 3 once in those 20 runs.
An even worse stat is: no of runs since last win 0-25. I think its a matter of what is more important in the form, is it rest days or course or going or distance? I put rest days near the bottom of the list unless they are very short returns or very long returns, the middle section can be coincidental imo.
If I owned the horse I would be expecting a big run today as otherwise there isn’t much point in keeping him in training. He may well have gone at the game but the collision of his 3 best stats looks more than a coincidence.
At 10/1, I’ll take a chance its not coincidence.
4.05 Market Rasen
KERCABELLEC
Market Rasen:
33%
Other Courses: 3%
Slow :
13%
Good Or Faster: 4%
2m4f – 3m:
16%
Other distance: 2%
When meeting the 3 requirements:
1211
Last run can be excused, usually needs first run and it was on unfavourable ground as well.
Taking a chance as not won for a while but today are his ideal conditions.
Hi TBR
What you are touching on is an important aspect of viewing form reading full stop.
Just how detailed an analysis is required?
To me there is over analysis which if taken to an extreme leaves you with far too much info that actually tells you less.
I think there was a survey in the US that showed that the more criterion used, something like 50 different ways of looking at form, actually gave worst results than just using 3 basic criterion.
What you say about Novice races is true, a horse could actually win under conditions as a novice that later he isn’t favoured by when competing at a higher level.
Personally I don’t do a lot of NH analysis because I find the Flat more rewarding. On the Flat a horse win its maiden and then is competing usually in races that won’t be easy races to win and so any favourable traits are easier to see.
As you point out a horse can run in numerous Novice events and create a profile that isn’t actually representative of its real traits.
You could of course exclude all Novice events from a profile, but that may wipe out a lot of winning form.
Regarding Alderluck, today wasn’t his class imo.
Possibly, possibly not, but I read from the comments in running that he was still a length up when crashing out two from home. I’ll need to see the race myself before conceding whether the eventual winner had him covered at the time.
Do agree entirely that the place finish of Ghufa still represents a very tidy piece of work for you, though. Nice one, sir.
gc
I know Alderluck finished 2nd in this last year but he is higher in the weights. Like you say, have a look at the race to assess if he would have won.
His record after a break is definately significant.
To be fair there isn’t a lot to go on is there really with a lot of NH horses at the hurdling stage? Unless they stick at hurdling then you have lots to go at.
I tend to like a few more runs which usually means watching for Chasers rather than Hurdlers.
I think the thread is going great, the input is very good and I’m sure over the winter a good few horses can be highlighted.
It will be interesting to see how people approach it as well.
What would be the first port of call? I like Course winners or the LH RH angle as a first call. Going has to be up there as well. Going can already be built in to prices though particularly with pure mudlarks.
Place money today only, the pace wasn’t strong enough to bring him close enough to win imo. Still on a good mark anyway for the future.
Regarding Alderluck, today wasn’t his class imo.
Class 1 & 2: 2400P
Class 3 or less: 011135P1Thanks Cormack
Well done David & co who backed Piscean. I haven’t been around all day so missed out.
I think I have spotted one for tomorrow.
GHUFA
5.00 Wolverhampton
The first thing I spotted was his preference for LH tracks.
LH: 846351334286013112512111520
RH: 4353863246Next thing is his track record:
Wolverhampton: 113111
Thats pretty impressive. If you take the view he doesn’t stay 14f then he is 5 from 5 here as the 3rd was over that trip.
Next I looked at his handicap mark. Its now
67
, which is another 2lb drop from his last run at wrong handed Kempton. His winning mark is 70 and since his last win he has been up to 74 which is the highest of his career and looks too high.
He needs a solid pace, which may be slightly questionable. Colonel Sherman likes the front and there is a blinkered first time one in Faith Jicaro who may be tried from the front in first time headgear. Little Richard was prominent last time. So all in all it should be ok.
Everything looks right for a good run, 12/1 showing best odds in the racing post.
There is a lot of overcomplication going on here. You don’t need 1000’s of races, you need a lot less, but they must be RELEVANT races, to produce standard times.
Anyone reading this thread is beat before they start.
