- This topic has 20 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 10 years, 3 months ago by
.
- Posts
The excessive rail movements continues at Fontwell today 08.12.15.
The only positive I can take from this, I have refined my method of adjusting the
standard times.2m1f145y(H) – +162yds
2m3f33y(H) – +162yds
2m3f35y(C) – +114yds
2m5f31y(C) – +132yds
3m1f106y(C) – +168ydsAdjustment to RP standard times:
2m1f145y(H) – +10.0s = (262.0s)
2m3f33y(H) – +10.0s = (283.0s)
2m3f35y(C) – +10.0s = (292.0s)
2m5f31y(C) – +11.0s = (328.0S)
3m1f106y(C) – +12.0s = (397.0s)http://www.britishhorseracing.com/race-info/fixtures/fixture-updates/
Mike.
TBB
I was slightly surprised that you didn’t mention the ‘corner cutting’ at Kelso on Sunday. After the hurdle down the side of the course the runners cut the corner using the inside chase bend to enter the straight. Must have made a significant difference to hurdles distances.
Rob
TBB
I was slightly surprised that you didn’t mention the ‘corner cutting’ at Kelso on Sunday. After the hurdle down the side of the course the runners cut the corner using the inside chase bend to enter the straight. Must have made a significant difference to hurdles distances.
RobHi Rob,
I certainly did calculate for the Kelso rail movements.Kelso 06.12.15
2m51y(H) +4.0s
2m4f189y(H) +5.0s
2m6f151y(H) +5.0s
2m7f96y(C) +4.0s
4m90y(C) +6.0sI will be updating this post when the rail movements become excessive, which is now several times a week.
I will not allow any clerk of the course to sabotage my speed figures, like at Fakenham where the last
3 meetings you had to add up to 212yds to the race distances.Mike.
Warwick / Thu 10 Dec
Race 1 0yd
Race 2 +59yd
Race 3 +64yd
Race 4 0yd
Race 5 +118yd
Race 6 0yd
Race 7 0ydChanges to standard times.
Race 1 2m(H)
Race 2 2m(C) +4.0s
Race 3 2m4f(C) +4.0s
Race 4 2m5f(H)
Race 5 3m(C) +8.0s
Race 6 2m5f(H)
Race 7 2m(NHF)********************************
Taunton / Thu 10 Dec
Race 1 +66yds
Race 2 +66yds
Race 3 +45yds
Race 4 0yd
Race 5 +45yds
Race 6 0yd
Race 7 +45ydsChanges to standard times.
Race 1 2m7f198y(H) +4.0s
Race 2 2m7f198y(H) +4.0s
Race 3 2m104y(H) +3.0s
Race 4 2m7f3y(C)
Race 5 2m3f1y(H) +3.0s
Race 6 2m2f40y(C)
Race 7 2m104y(NHF) +3.0sStandard times:
https://web.cloud.virginmedia.com/?shareObject=194f4b16-0ff1-8753-2530-079536e8cd56Mike.
With the rail movements at Cheltenham today, how is any speed figure handicapper supposed to produce accurate speed figures.
It takes me 30 minutes to adjust the standard times for any meeting where I consider the rail movements are excessive.Cheltenham / Fri 11 Dec
Race 1 +144yds
Race 2 +72yds
Race 3 +60yds
Race 4 +144yds
Race 5 0yd
Race 6 +100yds
Race 7 +60ydsChanges to standard times:
Race 1 3m1f56y(C) +10.0s
Race 2 2m4f166y(C) +6.0s
Race 3 2m179y(H) +3.0s
Race 4 3m2f(C) +10.0s
Race 5 3m6f37y(C)
Race 6 2m7f213y(H) +7.0s
Race 7 2m179y(H) +3.0sMike.
Hello BB
Have the adjusted distances for the above meetings been reported on the fixture update page, before the race?
Looking at the reports for Saturday, all the rail movement seems to have been accounted for.
Hello BB
Have the adjusted distances for the above meetings been reported on the fixture update page, before the race?
Looking at the reports for Saturday, all the rail movement seems to have been accounted for.Yes, I take the rail movements from the BHA website, the information sometimes appears on the Racing Post’s
cards but disappears, you can then find the rail change information in the results write ups on race one.
I did have to make a change of 3 seconds to Race 1 3m1f56y(C) making it 7.0s.Mike.
Cheltenham / Sat 12 Dec
Race 1 +60yds
Race 2 +72yds
Race 3 +72yds
Race 4 +72yds
Race 5 +100yds
Race 6 +60yds
Race 7 +60ydsChanges to standard times:
Race 1 2m179y(H) +4.0s
Race 2 2m4f166y(C) +5.0s
Race 3 2m62y(C) +5.0s
Race 4 2m4f166y(C) +5.0s
Race 5 2m7f213y(H) +7.0s
Race 6 2m179y(H) +4.0s
Race 7 2m4f56y(H) +4.0sMike.
Thanks, Mike.
Yes I understand it’s frustrating, but of course inevitable that rail movement will occur.
From my point of view, the fact that distances are now remeasured and those changes reported is welcome progress. Re-jigging your standard times with regression analysis must give you a very pleasing set of figures, when all your work is done.
My method of using Regression analysis to adjust the standard times for rail movements seems to have passed the test.
I had the going allowance today at Cheltenham at -0.58s/f (soft) and the speed figures looked OK.Cheltenham
12-Dec-15
RACE WINNER DIST RATING
12:05 Sceau Royal 2m1f 105
12:40 More Of That 2m5f 123
01:15 Pearls Legend 2m½f 101
01:50 Village Vic 2m5f 129
02:25 Unowhatimeanharry 3m 108
03:00 Old Guard 2m1f 99
03:35 Lily Waugh 2m4½f 77Can you imaging trying to produce sectional timing when they add 200yds+ to the distance of a race,
without adjusting using linear regression, the people who do this in my eyes are running a con.Mike.
Carlisle / Sun 13 Dec
Race 1 +35yds
Race 2 +63yds
Race 3 +38yds
Race 4 +86yds
Race 5 +50yds
Race 6 +60yds
Race 7 +35ydsChanges to standard times:
Race 1 2m1f(H) +2.0s
Race 2 2m4f198y(C) +4.0s
Race 3 2m3f61y(H) +2.0s
Race 4 3m110y(C) +6.0s
Race 5 3m1f(H) +3.0s
Race 6 2m4f(C) +4.0s
Race 7 2m1f(NHF) +2.0sInner course in use for the hurdle races.
Plumpton / Mon 14 Dec
Race 1 +63yds
Race 2 +24yds
Race 3 +84yds
Race 4 +36yds
Race 5 +105yds
Race 6 +24yds
Race 7 +63ydsChanges to standard times:
Race 1 1m7f195y(H) +4.0s
Race 2 2m214y(C) +1.0s
Race 3 2m4f114y(H) +6.0s
Race 4 3m1f152y(C) +2.0s
Race 5 3m217y(H) +7.0s
Race 6 2m3f164y(C) +1.0s
Race 7 1m7f195y(H) +4.0sNewbury / Wed 16 Dec
I have made further refinements to the way I adjust for rail movements, using linear curve regression.
Race 1 +109yds
Race 2 +72yds
Race 3 +109yds
Race 4 +47yds
Race 5 +72yds
Race 6 +109yds
Race 7 +85ydsChanges to standard times:
Race 1 2m69y(H) +7.0s
Race 2 2m7f86y(C) +5.0s
Race 3 2m69y(H) +7.0s
Race 4 2m92y(C) +3.0s
Race 5 2m7f86y(C) +5.0s
Race 6 2m2f183y(H) +7.0s
Race 7 1m4f143y(NHF) +6.0sLooking at the rail changes at Newbury today, makes me think of the people you crack on
about sectional times, my question to them is? how do you adjust for the excessive rail movements.
The topic of sectional times for national hunt racing always makes me smile…Mike.
Exeter / Thu 17 Dec
All races will be run on the Chase bend turning into the home straight.
Race 1 +65yds
Race 2 +65yds
Race 3 +29yds
Race 4 +29yds
Race 5 +29yds
Race 6 +120yds
Race 7 +120ydsChanges to standard times:
Race 1 2m2f111y(H) +4.0s
Race 2 2m175y(H) +4.0s
Race 3 2m1f109y(C) +2.0s
Race 4 2m3f48y(C) +2.0s
Race 5 2m3f48y(C) +2.0s
Race 6 2m7f25y(H) +8.0s
Race 7 2m5f135y(H) +8.0sMike.
BB
I understand why you need to know todays real distance, but are not your standards calculated from past races run over distances that also varied by up to a furlong or so. If you have a 2 mile standard that is calculated from past races where the distance may have been significantly more or less than 2 miles, then the standard time doesn’t actually relate to exactly 2 miles. You would have to know what distance each race you used to create the standards was run over I would have thought.
BB
I understand why you need to know todays real distance, but are not your standards calculated from past races run over distances that also varied by up to a furlong or so. If you have a 2 mile standard that is calculated from past races where the distance may have been significantly more or less than 2 miles, then the standard time doesn’t actually relate to exactly 2 miles. You would have to know what distance each race you used to create the standards was run over I would have thought.I was only just taking to Dave Edwards on the phone this afternoon on this subject.
When the rails are moved and the distances are increased, I also change my lbs per length figures to compensate.
You only have to look at the meeting at Fakenham on Sunday.Fakenham / Sun 20 Dec
Both courses on fresh ground the whole way around.
Race 1 plus 213 yards
Race 2 plus 136 yards
Race 3 plus 258 yards
Race 4 plus 136 yards
Race 5 plus 221 yards
Race 6 plus 170 yardsEarly in the week I sent Dave an email:
Morning Dave,
Navan is slowly becoming another Tramore to me, especially when I took a look at the standard time for the 2m4f(C).
In a normal world I would like a sample of 25 best times (no firm going) when calculating standard times, but the problem we face with national hunt racing is the excessive rail movements, so I came up with a solution to fix the problem using only use the 10 best times for national hunt racing.
Using 25 times for Kempton’s 1m distance as an example.
25 best times equates to the 15th percentile = 96.27s
20 best times equates to the 20th percentile = 96.29s
15 best times equates to the 25th percentile = 96.28s
10 best times equates to the 30th percentile = 96.21sLooking at the examples above you can see using only 1 decimal point there is no difference in the calculated standard times using the difference percentiles.
Now applying the 30th percentile to the 10 best times for the 2m4f(c) Navan standard time we end up with a time 5m 7.0s, RP standard time is 4m 47.0s.
Does the standard time of 5m 7.0s fix the problem?
Mike.
As you can see from the few examples above, I don’t just compile speed figures, I regression analyse everything.
Mike.
That wasn’t the point i was making really. I was asking how do you know what distance the standard times equate to, because when they are compiled it will be from races varying in distance. A 2 mile distance could be a furlong different from meeting to meeting, so any standard times derived will be over differing distances.
I’ll use a small example. If you are creating a standard time for a distance that is officially 2 miles, you then take 30 races and find a median for that distance, it might be 3 minutes 30 seconds. The median distance though is only 1 mile 7.5 furlongs. So your 2 mile standard is actually a 1mile 7.5 furong standard time. You then do figures for a day where the distance is reduced from 2 miles to 1 mile 7.5 furlongs. If you reduce your standard time from what you believe is a 2 mile standard time you would change it too much because the median distance of your standard time is already reflecting 1 mile 7.5 furlongs.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.