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Quote: from jackane24 on 2:01 pm on Mar. 9, 2006[br]He and Crow Wood are the only good horses on the flat who are now good hurdlers. That is my point.<br>
Jackane, what’s happened to your form book? There are at least 2 horses in the field that have better flat form than Crow Wood and comparable flat form to SW. One of them is definitely as good at hurdling as SW and the other just needs to improve a little.
Both these horses are available at 33/1 or bigger and SW is 5/2………..if you are gonna make statements about form make sure they are correct!
Paul Carberry has said it’s good enough to win the CH. Well why the fook isn’t SW running in it then?
I am surprised that anyone regards SW as a banker. The ground on Tuesday has got to be a hugely determining factor and we don’t know what it’s going to be.
If you’ve got ante post vouchers at anything from 7s upwards well done – that’s probably a good bet. But 11/4 is ridiculous for a bridle horse that has beaten trees. We don’t know if it is Harchibald or Brave Inca when the pressure is applied.
Incidentally, it hasn’t even got the best flat form in the race.
It may win but it is more likely that it won’t and I won’t be paying to see!
Lydia, forget Plan B – for 2 reasons:
1) Racing is far more interesting
2) These days you need to be a salesperson to make it in your alternative. Practising is becoming a smaller and smaller part of the job – the new buzzword is networking. Not very stimulating!!
I am absolutely amazed – The Sky’s the Limit is favourite and being backed for the Coral Cup.
55 5yo have tried and 55 have failed. One of the 55 got in the frame and thats it!
I suppose this trend is also as useful as the colour of the jockey’s silks………………
You can stick this one on my list as well – it cannot win! If you don’t beleive me.read the book!
GM, you really must take off those rose tinted specs. The run of Wichita Lineman at Newbury was a woeful effort in the context of a Champion Bumper. And that jockey…………………….jeez you wouldn’t want him in a tight finish.
He could have won by more?? Come on now fella, he was all out and the horses he was running against were bobbins!
The attitude of the bookies was amazing – they shortened him!
I suppose it’s all academic coz it’ll be going to Aintree.
Just thought an update was in order here chaps.
MF clearly will not be one of the horses that beats this stat. His gallop yesterday was so good that he’s been a big exchange drifter since. People seem to be getting wise at last.
Our Ben’s scooling was interesting. Under no pressure at all the horse jumped right at every single fence and also tried to take one home with him. His right jumping is consistent at every fence and he’s not going to be troubling the trends backers.
Accordion Etoile backers should be worried about the horses ability to jump slickly anyway but that weather forecast doesn’t look for this one. Any cut at all and this just makes his chances even slimmer than they already are.
Hardy…………how you feeling? I reckon you’re the only possibility of breaking trends backers hearts – I may even have a few bob on ya meslf. The Inca is no cert in my book.
Arrived on Saturday morning – I’m a virgin and I’ve not put it down since.
His piece on the X country chase is especially illuminating for me as I used to think it was a crock. His logic is pretty much unerring and if you want a way of knocking out the highly unlikelys it is a must.
The amount of times I’ve been faced with the Coral Cup, the Pertemps and the County Hurdle and thought – oh, I can’t be arsed. It does make life easier and will allow me a little extra time in bed to recover from the hangovers knowing he’s done most of my work for me!
Yes, it could well be a valid excuse but what trainer is going to run a horse on unsuitable ground in its final prep for cheltenham? Not many, I reckon. So this reason/excuse should not come up very often.
This is why the trend holds up imo.
For what it’s worth I don’t think litening to trainers about favoured ground is a fruitful line of enquiry. Most trainers are simply not interested in punters. I would only ever look at the form book.
AE came 2nd to Central House on Yeilding but beat Tamarinbleu on Gd/Sft, is there really a great deal of difference? I don’t think so.
I’ve tried to think of all the scenarios that fook this trend up but the truth is you can think of plenty but when you think about how likely the scenario is in reality it is usually highly unlikely.
Monet’s Garden is my only real worry if it runs in the Arkle.
I was banking on Mr Richards taking it to Aintree, hence I have dived on Darkness for the RSA and RD for the Arkle.
In any event my match bet with Carvills should see me ok ( I look ok with egg on my face!!) if MG grinds RD down on the hill to the line!
Jackane, it seems you are missing the point.
You cannot disagree with trends – they are statistical facts. You can however disagree with either their relevance or how to interpret the trend.
By giving cogent reasons why all 4 of the horses can win you are simply stating what is already known.
The idea of a trend is that it helps you narrow your options – it’s not to tell you which horse will win.
An example – i’m in love (metaphorically speaking) with Hardy Eustace. He has ensured a winning Cheltenham for me 2 of the last 3 years. I was ready to lump on, by my own mediocre standards, had he run 1st or 2nd in the Red Mills. Indeed, had he been declared a runner I probably would have backed him before the Red Mills.
He didnt’ run which, if you follow this trend, means he’s highly unlikely to win the Ch Hdl.
I’m not saying that these horse CANNOT win, I’m saying that they are fools gold.
To really get to the root of the trend, one would have to research more deeply than I have. But my suspicion is that there are 2 main reasons why a horse didn’t come 1st or 2nd lto.
1) The horse simply wasn’t good enough<br>2) The horse was injured or not sufficiently fit
Hardy Eustace and Moscow Flyer fall into the 2nd category with Acc Etoile and Our Ben the latter.
What I must now decide with HE and MF is whether or not a trainer is capable of getting the horse back to the requisite fitness etc for Cheltenham.
With HE i think there’s a chance but that is not fully reflected in his price.
With MF i think JH has a monster job, the horse will have not run for quite some time so I think is likely to be too fresh and furthermore he’s 12 and so will have deteriorated sufficiently imo for him not to be a factor and frankly his price is abysmal.
With Our Ben and Acc Etoile, I think their last races demonstrate that neither of them are good enough.
Our Ben was beaten by Father Matt and The Railwayman. Father Matt’s no better than a good handicapper so, imo, drags the form down. Sure he’ll be better over further but you are guessing how much.
Acc Etoile – I’ve said all I need to about this one elsewhere.
I don’t say these horses will not win – it’s simply a way of narrowing my options. It has worked for me in past so I will continue to use it
Try and turn people against you? Jeeeez, what are you on? This isn’t the school yard it’s a racing forum.
If you check all my posts you will not find any that are there other than to stimulate debate about horses.
I have firm opinions whether they are agreed with or not is not of any concern to me.
There are some on here who analyse races in a different way to me and that is where I learn.
All this nonsense about winding people up is exactly that – nonsense.
If someone makes a mistake they should be ready to take the flak coz its bound to come.
I would however remind you that this started coz Nixer decided I was anti Irish!!!
Fine Nixer the Omniscient from now on – you may not have but there will be somebody that did.
They will also have learned that you are a plonker of the 1st water
You lot wanna get a grip with reality for God’s sake. Stop being pathetic and spineless. If you’ve got an opinion let’s have it – if you haven’t then don’t come on whining about posts.
This forum is to express opinions and to learn from others and if we can have a laugh along the way fine.
Reading the post about Jackane’s hard life of racings hard knocks reminded me of Angela’s Ashes and the old Hovis adverts!!!!!!! I pay for Sky all by myself, I have to save up to go blah blah blah. So what, do you think we’re all from the country set? No we’re not.
Pick your dummy up, stick it back in your trap and keep reading, you might learn something to your advantage.
Although it is difficult for me to refrain from throwing personal insults, I shall.
It isn’t my fault if 4 prominent horses that fall into the trends are trained in Ireland.
The reason I referred to an Irish backlash is because the general opinion I have is that the Irish tend to get a little over sensitive regarding their horses and this is reflected sometimes (I suspect) in their punting.
FYI – a jackass is a bird and nothing more siniter than that. An apology was made if any offence was caused.
Stop looking for controversy where there is none. I’m not anti Irish at all. Sometimes their over zealous attitude to their horses benefits me (coz I may get better prices on non Irish opponents) and sometimes it hinders me for the opposite reasons. So what?
The trends thread was exactly that and I will be more than happy to revisit the thread when Cheltenham is done.
Just to suit you I will try and find another well fancied animal that doesn’t fit the trend that is not trained in Ireland……………. On second thoughts, no I won’t
I am staggered that Ms Hislop has raised the issue of th horse being pulled by the authorities. If they looked at how Beef or Salmon jumped last year they’d realise that Iris’s is by no means the worst jumper in there!
The worst problem with that run at Warwick was that it was as if he couldn’t be bothered to get his landing gear down. To my untrained eye that simply looked like IG thinkin "I can’t be bothered". That to me is far more worrying than his sometimes clumsy way of walking through the odd fence.
I can’t believe Ms Hislop didn’t credit Slooch Arm for starting the poll! (despite those who whinged about it!)
