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Rather unsurprisingly, a rather blinkered response.
The whole racing timetable has the same races, year in, year out culminating for most in the Cheltenham Festival.
If you add to that the proportion point alluded to earlier it is absolutely obvious. When a horse shows a certain amount of ability it will only run in a certain type of race and if it can’t come 1st or 2nd in that race then it can’t win at the festival.
What if it was unlucky?? This happens more rarely than people think. Good horses generally don’t get in a position where luck matters or they can overcome it – BM in his last Gold Cup.
Clivex came up with an example of a horse giving 2 others 10lb in a race and being only just beaten – should reverse it at Cheltenham. Having thought further about this I concluded that his scenario simply wouldn’t arise.
If you can’t see it I’m not going to try to convert. We shall return to this thread on 19th March.
Incidentally since you all think I’m talking rubbish I will extend the £100 offer to anybody else except Nixer who seems to think this forum is suitable for his rather puerile jibes
The logic is simple. In any generation of horses there will be a proportion that are grade performers, a proportion that are handicappers and a proportion that are selling platers etc.
The point is that the proportions do not change markedly. Therefore history largely repeats itself. Whether or not you choose to accept that is up to you but it is a fact. There maybe some variance greater than others in a generation’s ability but so what – that’s what makes it a trend, not a certainty.
Clivex you should credit me with a little deeper thought than comparing this to the colours of a jockeys silks. I shall avoid berating you for it just this once so that we can maintain our normal mode of agreement.
Mr Jackass, you originally thought this could be a possibility for investment. Now you are aware that I’m not that stupid, how do you feel about an even £100. Seems a decent price, especially if you’ve got them in a Yankee!
Mr Jackass, as you may be aware, I’m not a bookmaker and so do not have enough lays to cover myself here.
In any event this is about trends – not individual chances. If I wanted to dog the chances of the above horses then I would have started another thread.
Indeed, I have contributed significantly to the Racing Demon thread in damning the chances of Accordion Etoile.
Do you want an even 100 on the terms detailed above or do you just want me to give you OTT prices like a damn fool?
Mr Jackass, very briefly, if you ignore trends you are a fool.
In any generation of horses all the hard luck stories generally even themselves out so that it is pretty much the same from year to year.
I shan’t argue the toss with you on the form lines coz I agree with most of it.
Should I be wrong regarding at least 3 out of the 4 above then I will be happy to come back and hold my hands up. Indeed, just to show how serious this is, I’d be happy to have a straight £100 that at least 3 of the above will fail. I’m sure we can sort out the necessary arrangements should you accept the challenge.
