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Suspect Don Poli will go the Durkan, Lexus, Hennessy GC route, Vautour for the K George. How Willie will keep his 3 apart I don’t know. Coneygree will go for Henessey (Newbury) K George, Denman
Can’t see Don Poli & Coneygree meeting till the festival. How would you ride Vautour in the KG? Make all, handy, or drop him in. Of the three, I think Don Poli is wretched value for the Gold Cup, with the assumption being that when he no longer races against trees and parked cars he will win a truly run race. Somebody mentioned hysteria about Coneygree’s Gold Cup, which strikes me as ironic as he is 3rd fav for next year having having won this year’s in a fast time from the front on soft ground. The RSA was run at the pace of a cortège and the more I watch it, the more I think that Don Poli would be keeping Lord Windermere & Bobsworth company in a renewal. And I would rather back Djackadam to improve 5 lbs than Don Poli to improve 10.
Quite a fun game might be to plot the campaigns for Vautour, Djakadam, Don Poli and Coneygree
Vautour is no better than even money to stay 3m 2f 110 yards at Cheltenham even on good ground and probably won’t run in it; he may also need to get things his own way. I’d give him a decent chance in the King George, but he will be meeting C&D winners in Silviniaco Conti and Coneygree in a race that will be the opposite of tactical.
There is clearly plenty to come from Don Poli, but he needs to grow up next season and fast – running lazily through his races is endearing in a novice, but he’ll be a fence behind against the grown-ups if he does that in any truly run race. What a fascinating contest the Hennessy would be with Don Poli carrying 11-3 running off 163 and getting lumps from Djakadam and Coneygree.
Alastair Down called it right, when he said after Newbury that Coneygree would run in the Gold Cup. He is one of the last of the ‘old school’ racing correspondents in the tradition of his breeder the late John Oaksey, the incurable romantics who see steeplechasing as a sport.
I’m quite certain, as are his connections, that if John was asked whether to run Britain’s (joint) second from top rated staying chaser in the Gold Cup, he would have been amazed that one had even asked. Silviniaco Conti is a worthy favourite, but you can’t be scared off by one horse: if Conti is just a ‘flat track bully’, you can make cases for another ten – so why not Coneygree? Or any of the others, of course.
Best of Luck
After Coneygree won the Kauto Star (nee Feltham) Chase, Nico de Boinville got off and said the horse felt as good as anything he had sat on at Henderson’s – perhaps that is a little worrying for supporters of Sprinter Sacre as he rides him in his work.
So … the connections hatched a plan to run Coneygree in the Cotswold chase on Cheltenham trials day in the race won by Many Clouds. Had they been able to run him, I dare say they would have answered a few questions about how good the horse is and given him some experience of Cheltenham at the same time. Unfortunately, Coneygree tweaked a muscle behind and so the plan changed to Newbury. Unlike Cheltenham trials day, Newbury has a three mile novices’ chase (won by King’s Palace) but the connections were rather taken with the idea of testing their horse against seasoned campaigners in the Denman chase. The thinking was this: if he won ‘easily’, then the Gold Cup is an option to be mulled over in the light of likely going conditions and weather forecasts nearer the time. Anything less than ‘easily’ and it was back to plan A. Well Dicky Johnson got off Coneygree after the Denman and said that he was ‘never out of his comfort zone’ in the race, which one supposes equates to an easy win.
A lot of ‘experts’ are getting hot and bothered about the fact that Coneygree is a novice and should not run in a Gold Cup. It must be particularly galling for punters holding ante-post wagers on Coneygree for the RSA in which he still might run, and amusingly many of them have been bombarding Mark Bradstock’s email address to air their grievance and offer advice. The fact is Coneygree might well have bagged a novices’ chase at the back end of last season, but the decision was taken to preserve his novices’ status by putting him away for the summer. In any event, it is surely the horse’s lack of experience rather than the fact that he is a novice that may count against him in the end.
For my part, I hope there is a dry spell leading up to the Festival, with (correct) forecasts of a deluge on the Thursday. There is something reminiscent of Denman about his attitude and style of running: if the going contains the words soft or heavy, he’ll take some passing.
Coneygree will probably run in the Gold Cup, but if you like the horse you might fancy 4/1 NRNB with Boylesports for the RSA. Anybody trying to second guess the connections’ intentions might like to bear in mind that they are not gamblers. Their main consideration will be the the going and the fact that they have an 8-y-o who is as well as can be and on strict form has a better chance than most of landing the big one. He’s 7 wins from 9 races, having had a wind op after his first defeat and in the second lost to At Fishers Cross & The New One, with Whisper behind. Since then, he has won a Berkshire Novices’ Chase (Denman, Bobs Worth), a Feltham Novices Chase (Long Run) and a Denman Chase (Kauto Star, Denman, Long Run, Silviniaco Conti). It is not the horse’s fault that he hasn’t seen much of the opposition at the races: he can only beat what turns up. Come next month, if he "turns up", it will take a good un to pass him, whichever race he runs in.
well yeats, I asked the Mark Bradstock that very same question on Friday night. The fact is Coneygree is a bit of an arse at home, has already had a season off because of injury. Touch wood he makes it to one or other of the races this year, but he’s only an evens shot to make it to the starting line up in ’16. That is why they ran him in the Denman – to answer the question "is he good enough to run in a gold cup?" If you think the answer is 165p, then the answer is surely "yes he is". That doesn’t mean he will do so. When all is said and done, it will be down to the ground and what the owners fancy.
Coneygree is an 8 yo who would have stuck to novice chases last season, no doubt, had he not injured himself. Physically he is the finished article but it’s hardly his fault that he’s hardly seen another horse this season. He doesn’t speak English so has no idea that he’s a novice. Also he has had an enormous amount of schooling from Alf Bradstock who is a junior international show jumper, so what we’ve seen at the races is the tip of the iceberg. Crab the form all you like, bitch about novices in the Gold Cup, if he’s 165 or more he has as good a chance as many and more than most. The choice of race will probably be decided at the last minute and based on the ground.
Well done to Diamond Harry Backers. All of the first 7 home ran absolute crackers – just look at the time 6.19 seconds faster than standard. Loved Denman’s run: if anything he was more impressive in defeat in a race of that pace
Here’s where my money went.
£100 e/w Burton Port @ 9/1
Laid Denman to be unplaced @ 2.43 to lose £100 (Betfair)
£100 e/w Carruthers @ 20/1
£200 place Burton Port @ 2.66 (Betfair)Anybody interested in placed horses, here is the info.
In the last 20 years there have been 319 runners in the race, of which 70 have been placed (i.e. depending on 16+ runners 3/4 places). 22% of all runners are placed.
36 10-y-os have run gaining 5 places 14%
66 9-y-os have run gaining 10 places 15%
67 8-y-os have run gaining 11 places 16%
80 7-y-os have run gaining 25 places 31%
34 6-y-os have run gaining 17 places 50%I guess that means Burton Port is a standout bet for a place on Betfair at 2.84 and if you fancy him to win, which I do, then e/w merits serious consideration.
I’d be nervous if I were a Denman backer: I think I am going to lay him to be unplaced. Bit cross I missed laying evens.
I was always planning to back Carruthers as he’s well handicapped against Denman and has some decent G1 form in the book. He would be cracking value at 20/1. But, he was absolutly battered in his prep race at Ascot, both physically and mentally, and it has taken some time to get him back on track.
Carruthers e/w 20/1
Burton Port e/w 9/1
Denman lay at 2.10 (decimal)Good luck all!
Denman – Just going of stable reports, they seem very excited, more so than previous runs and that can only be a good thing.
I dare say most of us will be wishing that we judged with our eyes, not our ears (or is that our heads rather than our hearts).
I see that crafty bugger Mouse Morris has left China Rock in having said only yesterday that he doesn’t run. It reminds me of the time that "somebody" backed one of his horses at Cheltenham "first past the post" (i.e. regardless of any stewards intervention) only for the jockey to weigh in 10 lbs light!
Your Maj,
Brush hurdles are not fences: if that’s your evidence that he can jump a fence, it is contradicted by his runs over proper fences. Diamond Harry is a fine hurdler, and may even turn out to be a fine chaser. But nothing he’s done in two completed chases in tiny fields, jumping poorly followed by fluffing his lines in the RSA has shown that he will be as yet.
I’m rather hoping that Sporting Index will have BP/DH as a match bet as I know which one i will pick.
:lol:
Wasn’t it Newbury where Diamond Harry jumped like a crab, to scrape home from the equally iffy Bensalem in a 3 runner race?You are talking about both my long term Hennessey fancies! Dont tell me you dont think Diamond will finish in the first 4 reet?
Your Maj,
Reethard is right about DH’s jumping at Newbury: it was shocking. Also, I don’t see how the form of a (brush) hurdle race a year ago (when Burton port was only 5) translates into form over fences.
Would have been nice to see Daimond Harry at Ascot, Wetherby or Wincanton putting in a clear round over fences.
sorry was looking at little josh
. Still, Denman should win this, with barbers shop not far away.If "Good" Denman turns up it will be a cracking race. However, there is still a reasonable chance that even if he does, the 2nd season novices may turn out to have been kindly treated by the handicapper and the handicappers like Barbers Shop & Carruthers have more than a sporting chance at the weights based on form from last year i.e. last year’s Hennessy, BS gets an 8lb pull for 7 lengths and C a 26 lb pull for 23 lengths in the GC.
Much has been made of Denman’s ability to carry big weights and as winner of this race off 11-12 he has nothing to prove on that score. I still think that in the case of small horses like Carruthers, who looked like a pony next to Imperial Commander in the paddock at the gold cup, and a veritable shetland next to Denman on the first circuit of the race, the absence of weight may be be as much of a factor.
PS If I was backing Diamond Harry, I would have liked to have seen him school, preferably like the French do with schooling fences on the gallops. IMHO it is an heroic assumption that he will jump well enough in a field this size with so little experience. OK he won an egg and spoon race round Newbury over fences, but his jumping that day was pretty iffy.
PPS Just found this http://www.markbradstockracing.co.uk/blog/ on Mark Bradstock’s web site
Gotta be Denman, been there and done it.
Was looking at Wierd Al given the recent form boost, but I find it odd that not a lot of people are worried about the fact he’s only raced 3miles+ twice and been beaten by a combined total of 63 lengths!Weird Al has actually races 3 miles+ just the once, his impressive win against Knockara Beau at Wetherby, but is undefeated over fences!
How has he been beaten a combined total of 63 lengths?
I may be missing something, could you explain? Thanks.Hard to look past him for this in my opinion should Denman find a repeat of last season’s heroics hard to come by. It’s clear his best distance is 3m+.
His comeback run against Little Josh was a brilliant run, considering the sharp track and unsuitable trip, plus he should come on for the run as well.Looking forward to how Hey Big Spender does at a decent price, but Weird Al for me.
Carlisle is a stiff galloping track not a sharp one (http://www.drawbias.com/Jumps/Carlislej.html). It also takes some getting, since the last 1/2 mile is up a steep climb. That said, I don’t think it harms your case, so much as enhances the options for Little Josh to run over further.
Anybody interested in backing Carruthers should be mindful of the fact that he came out of his race at Ascot somewhat battered and bruised, as Dovers Hill ‘landed in his lap’ at one fence. Apparently he is back on track, but whether he runs depends on a clean scope and his work on Wednesday morning.
. Still, Denman should win this, with barbers shop not far away.