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Coneygree is an 8 yo who would have stuck to novice chases last season, no doubt, had he not injured himself. Physically he is the finished article but it’s hardly his fault that he’s hardly seen another horse this season. He doesn’t speak English so has no idea that he’s a novice. Also he has had an enormous amount of schooling from Alf Bradstock who is a junior international show jumper, so what we’ve seen at the races is the tip of the iceberg. Crab the form all you like, bitch about novices in the Gold Cup, if he’s 165 or more he has as good a chance as many and more than most. The choice of race will probably be decided at the last minute and based on the ground.
You’re only a novice once, why waste that opportunity? If you owned him would you really be disappointed if he only won the RSA?
"Gingertipster":1bfs4xuc wrote:
Kings Palace being three lengths clear of Deputy Dan throughout can be a significant amount in a strongly run race. In my opinion Very Wood was grossly flattered (to a certain degree Apache Jack too) and had Deputy Dan been hung on to for longer… would’ve been close between the two.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa9-7S1pmjs
Perhaps Very Wood was flattered. On the day he responded best to a big-field, searching stamina test, on relatively quick ground. Add in the pretty unique track and he may never encounter those specific set of factors again. If he did perhaps the result would be exactly the same. Not sure on his current well being but a shot at a Pertemps might not be such a bad idea. It is that one-off set of challenges that will continue to make Cheltenham such a challenge for both horse and punter.
well yeats, I asked the Mark Bradstock that very same question on Friday night. The fact is Coneygree is a bit of an arse at home, has already had a season off because of injury. Touch wood he makes it to one or other of the races this year, but he’s only an evens shot to make it to the starting line up in ’16. That is why they ran him in the Denman – to answer the question "is he good enough to run in a gold cup?" If you think the answer is 165p, then the answer is surely "yes he is". That doesn’t mean he will do so. When all is said and done, it will be down to the ground and what the owners fancy.
If I am getting the figures right here,
Houblon Des Obeaux
finished 3¼ lengths behind
Many Clouds
in the Hennessy, conceding 6lbs. Based on 1lb per length for NH races that means Houblon Des Obeaux is roughly 2¾ lengths superior to Many Clouds were they to compete at level weights.
Many Clouds beat
Dynaste
by 1½ lengths at Cheltenham in January (level weights), so taking into account Dynaste’s 4½ lengths defeat by
Silviniaco Conti
in the King George you could assume Many Clouds has 3 lengths to find if he is to beat Silviniaco Conti. Which also means that Houblon Des Obeaux, on Hennessy form with Many Clouds, has only ¼ length to find on Silviniaco Conti.
Coneygree beat Houblon Des Obeaux by 7 lengths on Saturday receiving only 1lb from Venetia Williams’ charge.
Now I know Houblon was beaten out of sight by Silviniaco last season both at Aintree and in the Gold Cup, but Houblon has improved this season seemingly benefiting from being held up.
I admit this is a somewhat simplistic reading of the form, but it becomes apparent quite quickly that the Gold Cup route seems logical for Coneygree, especially when we recall he was heavily eased at Kempton on Boxing day and still clocked a time only 4 seconds slower that Silviniaco Conti’s in the King George (who was ridden right out to the line). Add to that Silviniaco’s apparent dislike of the Cheltenham hill in last season’s Gold Cup, and I would say Coneygree’s connections are more than entitled to go give serious consideration to a tilt at the Gold Cup rather than an RSA.
Apart from Silviniaco Conti who else is there for Coneygree to lose sleep over? I have already covered Many Clouds.
Road To Riches
looked like a progressive horse at Christmas, but we haven’t seen him since and the form was made to look somewhat unreliable when the horses behind him that day finished in different positions this time around. Sunday’s winner
Carlingford Lough
, whilst an admirably tough and consistent sort, wouldn’t be any better than Houblin Des Obeaux on official ratings.
Holywell
is held by Coneygree on the Houblon Des Obeaux from line (through Many Clouds who has twice beaten Jonjo O’Neill’s charge) and
Bob’s Worth
appears a shadow of his former self.
Coneygree’s current odds for the RSA reflect the opinion that whilst vying for favouritism, he is not a certainty for that race, largely due to the presence of the unbeaten pair Don Poli and Kings Palace. The latter will take him on for the lead if they both line up , whereas it is unlikely Coneygree will have a front runner of King’s Palace’s ability taking him on in the Gold Cup.
Think your form lines are very questionable Ivanjica. You’re relying a lot on the form of Houblon and Dynaste. I was at Newbury on both Hennessey and Denman days, although the official ground was soft both days, it wasn’t. Denman was run on good-soft which did not suit Houblon as well, running below form. Dynaste was also below his Kempton form at Cheltenham.
I don’t think Coneygree is as good as your form lines make out, but I agree he should go for the Gold Cup. Particularly with (favourite apart) the rest don’t look top class. A bit more improvement could see Coneygree bang there in the mix.
Value Is EverythingSilviniaco Conti’s dislike of Cheltenham has been over-played imo. Ran all over the place on the run-in, but did the same at Aintree on his next start. Although won at Liverpool, it wasn’t in the same league as Kempton or Haydock. Personally, I don’t see a Cheltenham flaw, if anything developed a possible dislike of Spring and/or good ground. But only "possible".
Am on Holywell at big prices, but wouldn’t back that at 14/1 now.
Also took 25/1 Smad Place, available at roughly that now, but hasn’t made the imptovement expected, imo no longer value and looking to off-load.imo Favourite is the best value. Coneygree looks fairly priced @ 12/1 NRNB. Not much value elsewhere in the race.
Value Is EverythingApart from Silviniaco Conti who else is there for Coneygree to lose sleep over?
Conversely, we could ask how many of the first half dozen in the Gold Cup betting would have been sweating about taking on Houblon Des Obeaux, Unioniste, Taquin Du Seuil, Harry Topper and Double Ross last Saturday?
I agree there’s probably quite a bit of chaff in the Gold Cup list but not half as much as there was dross in that race on Saturday. It was what I would have described as a
Foxtrot
race back in the day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Will an extra 2 furlongs on a stiffer course in the GC play to his strengths?
Damned if I knowWill an extra 2 furlongs on a stiffer course in the GC play to his strengths?
Damned if I knowDeffo, he’s all stamina.
Value Is EverythingThe form that counts most come the Festival is the stable form. If the stable goes trough a lean spell at that time, then there is nothing you can do about it. WInners don’t just come like that.
I think that Coneygree is a sound horse at the very best racing age of 8 years. So therefore if connections decide to run him it would be great for the sport and absolutely thrillig to watch. By the way I was almost spot on with my rating of 165, he got 166.
However I would still take the easier route in the RSA. With a false favourite in the race rated about 10 lbs inferior to him, he almost would only have to stay on his feet to collect.Cant see any problem at all with Gold Cup trip…already won at Cheltenham over 3 miles on heavy ground as a baby….showed no signs of stopping the last twice…
I think this race is a tad overvalued as to form. The market proved that.
Taquin Du Seuil we have been told finally by JJ O Neill he doesn’t stay 3 miles.
Harry Topper has "gone" and won’t run again.
Unioniste isn’t that good, 6th in the Hennessy where Houblon Des Obeaux was 3rd. If using him as a reliable yardstick (a horse who hasn’t won since Dec 13 beating the moody Cedre Bleu by a neck) then Coneygree won’t get anywhere near Silviniaco Conti.
As impressive to the eye as it was, this was not a great race and I think novices should stick to exactly that. The Gold Cup would be way too big a leap I think.That just about sums it up Harvey,well said.The only Cheltenham winner coming from the above race is
Taquin du Seuill
dropped back to the Ryanair trip.I notice even the official handicapper Phil Smith is getting carried away now rating
Coneygree
a better Novice than the mighty
Denman
…Lets see how many Hennesseys,Gold cups and RSA’s,this slighty over-hyped Novice does win because mark my words he wont win anything at Cheltenham in March unless its very soft.
I notice even the official handicapper Phil Smith is getting carried away now rating
Coneygree
a
better Novice
than the mighty
Denman
…Lets see how many Hennesseys,Gold cups and RSA’s,this slighty over-hyped Novice does win because mark my words he wont win anything at Cheltenham in March unless its very soft.
What part of "better novice" don’t you understand Gord? How many Hennesseys and/or what either horse does/did in its second season has nothing to do with how good they can be rated as a NOVICE.
Denman’s form improved around a stone and a halfAFTER
his novice season. Phil Smith has
NOT
said he’s expecting Coneygree to make the same giant step Denman took as a second season chaser.
Value Is EverythingI think theres similarities between the two and honestly think Coneygree will be every bit as good….I think he’s already a much better jumper of a fence…very similar in that they are just out and out gallopers who run their opposition into the ground……before Denman’s RSA demolition job he’d had 9 starts…like Coneygree…their respective 8th and 9th starts there is absolutely no comparison whatsoever!
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