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There is not much point in comparing Thistlecrack with Coneygree as there are very few similarities. Rated about the same as novice hurdlers, Coneygree spent much of his first “year off” being schooled by, amongst others, Alfie Bradstock, the trainer’s son who is also a professional show jumper.
When Coneygree came back in the Berkshire Novices chase, he had already been withdrawn by an idiot vet from a race at Plumpton. If Thistlecrack were mine, I’d be interested to run him the Berkshire for two reasons. First it is over 2m4f, so he might get a stronger pace through the race. Secondly, the pedigree of the race is vastly superior to other races this side of Christmas, having been won by the likes of Remittance Man, Denman, Bob’s Worth (beating Cue Card) and, of course, Coneygree. Then take things from there.
If Coneygree’s journey to the Gold Cup helps connections decide where to go with Thistlecrack, it should be remembered that if the Bradstocks had started spouting about Coneygree being a Gold Cup horse at that stage they would have been locked up. It was only after the Feltham chase, including a look at the race times, that the Bradstocks decided to run Coneygree in a Gold Cup trial – just to see. Even after that, he would probably have run in the RSA had the ground been soft.
I cannot help feeling that the likeable Colin Tizzard might have been better advised to keep his cards closer to his chest. Every year, good staying novices are entered for the Gold Cup “just in case” the race cuts up or a novice puts up a jaw-dropping performance in February. Novices actually have quite a good record in the Gold Cup considering how few have run. (AP maintains to this day that Gloria Victis went wrong before he jumped the second last).
As for today’s performance, Thistlecrack did win as he pleased even with his howlers at the ditches; thank goodness Scu didn’t fall off; a top notch performance next time out having learnt and it’s game on. Can’t wait.
Nice piece, Gingertipster. It’s a day that I remember well, mainly involving a jolly lunch in the old members restaurant, during the course of which I just about covered my losses with a bet on what one of my companions would have for pudding
What do we imagine his plan might be? Saturday at Cheltenham, Boxing Day at Kempton (King George?), Argento / Denman Chase, Gold Cup? Clearly I’m missing something here, because that is at least a 10/1 shot to win the big one at this stage.
I’d love to see Thistlecrack step up to the plate, but if you watch every three mile novices chase this season you will see at least a dozen beat inferior opposition easily and jump well.
We have yet to arrive at the “Act of God needed to beat Vicario di Bray” pitch of hysteria, but I fear some may be teetering on the brink.
The things you’re “missing” are the importance of how well Thistlecrack jumped and fragility of rivals.
It’s not the same as a “dozen” ordinary hurdler jumping as well in 3m novice chases (although none have jumped as well). Because we know the horse has a massive amount of raw ability from his hurdles form. Therefore, what we wanted to know from chasing debut was does he jump? Not only can he jump, but he can both shorten up and lengthen with alacrity. A lot of the time inexperienced novices can do one but not the other. Thistlecrack looks a natural chaser, therefore can be expected to do at least equally as well over fences as hurdles.
Thistlecrack would only need to be placed in an average King George for natural progression of a Novice and added stamina test of Cheltenham to maintain or even shorten from 4/1.
Not only is the price about how good Thistlecrack could be, is also about the unsoundness of his nearest betting rivals, Coneygree and Don Cossack and age of fourth favourite Cue Card. What price will he be if one, two or all three don’t make it to Cheltenham?
I’ll have 112 points @ 10/1 please, SSK.
P.S.
What does Vicario Di Bray have to do with it?
Thank you for the kind offer, which I regret that on this occasion I must decline as I am laying the hind quarters off Thistlecrack at 7/2 on Betfair.
Vicario di Bray won a Champion Hurdle trial at Haydock, beating half the leading fancies for that race. His next outing was the Tote Gold Trophy (“The Schweppes”) for which he was considered something of a blot on the handicap and started 4/7 favourite carrying 10-9. That morning the Racing Post carried the front page headline “Act of God needed to stop Vicario di Bray.” He was beaten three lengths.
Or put it another way, “value is everything”.
What do we imagine his plan might be? Saturday at Cheltenham, Boxing Day at Kempton (King George?), Argento / Denman Chase, Gold Cup? Clearly I’m missing something here, because that is at least a 10/1 shot to win the big one at this stage.
I’d love to see Thistlecrack step up to the plate, but if you watch every three mile novices chase this season you will see at least a dozen beat inferior opposition easily and jump well.
We have yet to arrive at the “Act of God needed to beat Vicario di Bray” pitch of hysteria, but I fear some may be teetering on the brink.
Were it not Thistlecrack, one would hardly be talking about the Gold Cup.
His exploits as a hurdler have already demonstrated that he has the engine to be a Gold Cup winner
A bit of a contradiction there SSK
Can anybody name me a World Hurdle winner that has won the Gold Cup? Thought not. Every year or two a grand staying hurdler is touted as the next Pegasus over fences. Sure, they have the engine, but do they have the slick, fast, accurate jumping of fences usually required of a Gold Cup winner? As far as Thistlecrack’s debut is concerned, the answer has to be: “not on what we have seen so far”. That may all change if Thistlecrack thrashes some decent opposition in one of the Grade 2 Novices’ Chases at the end of the month.
How many Stayers Hurdles winners go on to race over fences SSK?
And
How many Stayers Hurdles winners have gone over fences and then made such an impressive round of jumping on their steeplechasing debut?Since 1989 there have been 21 horses that have won the stayers hurdle. Of those, Rustle, Kings Curate, Balasani, Doran’s Pride, Cyborgo, Karshi, Princeful, Bacchanal, Iris’s Gift, My Way de Solzen, More of That and Thistlecrack have gone on to race over fences (57%).
As to your second question, I don’t recall the word “impressive” being used of any of them apart from bookies and possessors of ante-post betting slips, Thistlecrack included.
So … ok, ok: Thistlecrack jumped well, very well for a novice, even if he spent a little too much time in the air at a couple.
For what it’s worth the Racing Post said of Thistlecracks’s race: “Made all, raced enthusiastically and jumped well, quickened pace after 13th, steadied and joined briefly between last 2, soon came clear, easily.”
Compare that to other future Gold Cup winners’ first attempt at fences. “Chased leaders, 4th halfway, closer in 3rd before 10th where slight mistake, left 2nd next, closed on outer to dispute 2 out and led last, soon clear, stayed on well, easily. [Don Cossack, fell RSA)
Or “Made all and jumped well, ridden before last, kept on well and always holding rival flat, ridden out” (Coneygree, Won Gold Cup).
“Tracked leader, went left 12th, challenging when bumped and mistake 4 out, given time to recover and 4 lengths down after 2 out, rallied and 2 lengths down last, driven and stayed on gamely run-in, led last stride (Bobs Worth beating Cue Card, Won RSA)
“Held up in mid-division, headway 8th, tracked leaders 11th, led approaching 3 out, clear from next, easily” (Kauto Star, did not run at Cheltenham that year)
“Prominent, led 3rd, mistake and headed 4 out, led 3 out, hung left approaching last, ridden out” (Denman, Won RSA)
“Mid-division, closer in 5th from 8th, ridden in moderate 4th from 5 out, closer order approaching straight, close 2nd 2 out, challenged and disputed lead last, stayed on well to edge ahead last strides” (Kicking King, 2nd Arkle)
“Mid-division, closer in 5th from 8th, ridden in moderate 4th from 5 out, closer order approaching straight, close 2nd 2 out, challenged and disputed lead last, stayed on well to edge ahead last strides” (War of Attrition, 7th Arkle)
“Jumped well, held up in touch and always travelling well, headway, switched right and challenged 2 out, soon led, clear last, easily” (Best Mate, did not run at Cheltenham that year).
Even with the sad death of Vautour, concerns about other principals’ soundness of wind and limb, age, going etc. etc. does that make Thistlecrack a 4/1 shot? Really?
Whenever Tizzard spoke at the back end of last season about the Gold Cup for this year, I had the impression that he had a few regrets that he hadn’t gone novices’ chasing instead. What price might he be now if he’d dished out a 20 length thrashing to Blaklion in the RSA?
As it is, all the horse has been in his first race is no better (or worse) than he should be: a talented novice beating inferior rivals easily. All I am questioning is the value. To quote Donald Rumsfeld, “There are known knowns and known unknowns; there are unknown knowns and unknown unknowns.”
he was a bit guessy at times
You must of been watching a different race to me, SSK.
I must have watched thousands of Novices’ Chases like that. Just because Thistlecrack guessed right doesn’t mean he didn’t guess. He did and no shame in that: he is a novice after all.
Were it not Thistlecrack, one would hardly be talking about the Gold Cup.
His exploits as a hurdler have already demonstrated that he has the engine to be a Gold Cup winner
A bit of a contradiction there SSK
Can anybody name me a World Hurdle winner that has won the Gold Cup? Thought not. Every year or two a grand staying hurdler is touted as the next Pegasus over fences. Sure, they have the engine, but do they have the slick, fast, accurate jumping of fences usually required of a Gold Cup winner? As far as Thistlecrack’s debut is concerned, the answer has to be: “not on what we have seen so far”. That may all change if Thistlecrack thrashes some decent opposition in one of the Grade 2 Novices’ Chases at the end of the month.
I thought Thistlecrack’s debut fine as far as it went. Were it not Thistlecrack, one would hardly be talking about the Gold Cup. He did not beat much; the race was run in a slow time; he was a bit guessy at times; he shortened up nicely at one or two.
If he runs in either the Berkshire or Worcester Novices chases at the Hennessy meeting, he may get some decent opposition and show if he has learned from it.
His exploits as a hurdler have already demonstrated that he has the engine to be a Gold Cup winner; the question is rather: ‘can he jump like a Gold Cup winner?’ On that one the jury must still be out.
He is now a best priced 9/2 for the Gold Cup. That’s bonkers.
Coneygree’s connections don’t think much of Haydock, for reasons stated above. Max is not the greatest traveller, so sitting in a traffic jam on the M6 for 170 miles to run at a course that they know does not suit seems less ‘insane’ than tootling 20 miles down the road to a course where his record over fences is two out of two. Horses for courses.
Steeplechasing, in the days when Silver Buck and Night Nurse were in their pomp Haydock was a very different racecourse. In 2007 they re-developed the course, making the bends much more hairpin sharp – a sort of upside down Musselburgh.
As for the fences, they are half the point of Coneygree. Instead of the black brutes used before 2007 they now use the crappy little portable ones found at point-to-points. In short, they have turned a once great steeplechasing racecourse into a Mickey Mouse dog track.
I’m not even sure that The Betfair ‘deserves’ to be a Grade 1. This year’s race looks like attracting not a single runner from the first nine in the Cheltenham Gold Cup ante-post lists, with the possible exception of Road to Riches. The fact is that the prestige attached to the race is surely down to that conferred on it by four-time winner, the great Kauto Star, who could handle anything including dressage.
It is interesting that you think winning a bumper and a novices’ hurdle round Uttoxeter is evidence that a horse will handle chasing at Haydock: I’d recommend walking both courses to see if you can spot any similarities!
Lastly, all connections of staying steeplechasers are “obsessed” with the Hennessy, because the cup has names on it like Arkle, Mill House, Mandarin, Burrough Hill Lad and Denman.
Steeplechasing, Haydock is a gaff track – tight with soft fences. Why on earth would Coneygree run there?
If Coneygree runs his usual race, the surprise will surely be seeing “half a dozen” horses travelling well on his tail”: this last happened in a novices’ hurdle in 2012. If one is going to look around for something to oppose the class horses off a light weight usually one would look for a second season chaser, but with the exception of Saphir du Rheu, last years’ novices look pretty average. Perhaps Bob’s Worth is back to something like his best off a feather weight but didn’t really ‘travel’ in a race when he was at it, so for me it’s a duel between Saphir du Rheu and Coneygree – and we know how they usually end.
Judging from some of the comments above about Coneygree, there are some here who appear to be convinced that the connections of a horse are under some kind of obligation ‘to punters’.
Perhaps somebody can explain what this obligation might be.
I seem to recall Patrick Mullins on the Racing Post Postcast that most of his father’s horses are still pretty fat… also that Vroom Vroum Mag might be one of the best handicapped horses in training.
I’m probably being a bit dim here, but my idea of ‘value’ is to compare odds offered to likelihood of outcome. If Don Cossack has a 1/3 chance of winning at Haydock, 1/5 at Kempton & 1/7 the Gold Cup, say, he has a 1/105 chance of winning all three.
Once upon a time one could put “any to come” on a betting slip …
£100 Win Don Cossack 2/1 Betfair Chase
any to come
Win Don Cossack 4/1 King George
any to come
Win Don Cossack 6/1 Cheltenham Gold Cup
He had a nice pipe opener yesterday, but I still don’t think he’ll get 3m2f110y at Gold Cup pace.
It’s fascinating to see if the best 2 1/2 milers – Vautour & Don Cossack – will get 3m 2f 110y round Cheltenham, come the third leg. Who knows with the former? With Don Cossack, I presume that his stellar Timeform rating comes from Aintree over 2 1/2 miles rather than Punchestown over 3m 1f. In the latter instance, any race where that gorgeous old rogue, The Giant Bolster, is up with the pace for most of the race has been run at cortège speed – slow by 16.1 seconds. This jury is still out.
As for the £1m treble, it beggars belief that ‘the enemy’ – let’s just call him Paddy Power – is offering odds like 33/1 for Don Cossack to win the £1m treble. 2/1 Haydock, 4/1 Kempton, and 6/1 Cheltenham, which is an 104/1 treble.
Which Muppet at the Jockey Club came up with the idea of the million pound bonus, thereby at a stroke dicking up one of the great handicaps.
Oh and while I’m on the subject, how does Paddy effing Power think that 33/1 for Coneygree is a decent price for something which comprises events that they have him priced up at 5/2, 4/1 and 8/1?
