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pasted from my blog:
The Jockey Club owns 15 racecourses, three of which feature in a recently announced £1m bonus scheme. Any horse who wins the Betfair Chase (Haydock), The King George VI Steeplechase (Kempton), and the Cheltenham Gold Cup this season will land the big bonus.
Few horses are likely to try to win all three, and even fewer are capable. Vautour, a horse I believe to be a potential superstar, is unlikely to go to Haydock according to his trainer Willie Mullins, although the owners, the Riccis, might be tempted by the challenge alone (they don’t need the prize money). But Mullins campaigns his top horses very carefully, and if he is against running in the Betfair, I suspect the horse will not turn up.
The current Cheltenham Gold Cup holder Coneygree is unlikely to run in the Betfair. Sara Bradstock, the trainer’s wife said, “I don’t particularly think the Haydock race will suit our fellow as the fences are small and the track’s a bit tight.”
Paul Nicholls says he’d be happy to run Silviniaco Conti in all three legs, but has serious doubts about the horse reproducing his best form at Cheltenham.
But Gordon Elliott said yesterday he would ‘certainly consider’ aiming Don Cossack at the three races. The big brown gelding tore through the back end of last season ending up top rated steeplechaser by the BHA, Raceform and Timeform. He’s won 8 of his 14 steeplechases and was considered by some to be unlucky in the Ryanair for which he started favourite and finished third. He went on to record highly impressive victories at Aintree and Punchestown, proving his stamina in the latter.
If all goes well with the contenders between now and March, the best quality field for decades will walk to the tapes for the start of the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Don Cossack has a real chance of lining up with victories in the first two legs of the bonus treble already under his girth, and 40/1 carries lots of appeal, especially as he makes his seasonal debut tomorrow at Punchestown, where he will go off at very short odds.
Just in case Vautour turns up at Haydock, I’ve also taken 16/1 ‘any horse’ to win the treble. The Gold Cup will be a fierce challenge, but with these two bets, you could easily end up in a position to lay and make a profit.
Good luck, and remember, ante-post betting is a risky business. They need to stay sound throughout the season, and they need to turn up or your money is lost. But 40s Don Cossack (Betfred) and 16s any horse (Paddy Power and Betvictor) for this treble, are my first top value recommendations of the new season.
Wise words Joe but I agree Don Cossack does look the real deal,I think he’s tailor-made for Haydock and Kempton but not totally convinced about Cheltenham,I feel Saphir du Rheu could have been the right candidate too but connections are keen on Newbury.As for Vautour,he’ll be an Ante-Post nightmare but I’m adamant he’ll go for the Champion Chase myself,14/1 would be Xmas if only we knew!
Aye, Vautour will be the fly in everyone’s ointment. He could win at any trip. I think Mullins is maybe persuadable about the treble – depends just how much the Riccis want it.
I wasn’t a big DC fan until Aintree. His connections are not afraid to race him, and he has the quality. Power and Betfred were going 40 earlier, Power’s has gone and someone just tweeted that he got knocked back by Betfred for a score at 40s.
I think Don Cossack’s race placement last year was quite revealing about how lowly he actually sits in the Gigginstown pecking order.
He rattled up a fair few wins, but got there by tackling quirky types (e.g. Champagne Fever & Cue Card), or over-the-top less rugged types at Aintree and Punchestown. When it came to Cheltenham, in what was quite an open-looking Gold Cup, very-good-but-not-quite-excellent Road To Riches got the call ahead of him. Surely that says it all. The order (at 100% peak form) would seem to be Don Poli (on testing tracks) > Road To Riches > Don Cossack.
You’ve also got to fear for a horse like Don Cossack when it comes to jumping in these races. He has had two tries around Cheltenham now – falling once and blundering his way around in the Ryanair Chase last year. With superb pressurisers like Silviniaco Conti, Coneygree and Kings Palace serving it up wherever he turns, this could be a chastening season. Don Cossack has been allowed to paper over the cracks so far, but this ‘murderer’s row’ of snarling front-runners will break him, I fear.
I think a different horse will win each of the three legs.
I think Don Cossack’s race placement last year was quite revealing about how lowly he actually sits in the Gigginstown pecking order.
He rattled up a fair few wins, but got there by tackling quirky types (e.g. Champagne Fever & Cue Card), or over-the-top less rugged types at Aintree and Punchestown. When it came to Cheltenham, in what was quite an open-looking Gold Cup, very-good-but-not-quite-excellent Road To Riches got the call ahead of him. Surely that says it all. The order (at 100% peak form) would seem to be Don Poli (on testing tracks) > Road To Riches > Don Cossack.
You’ve also got to fear for a horse like Don Cossack when it comes to jumping in these races. He has had two tries around Cheltenham now – falling once and blundering his way around in the Ryanair Chase last year. With superb pressurisers like Silviniaco Conti, Coneygree and Kings Palace serving it up wherever he turns, this could be a chastening season. Don Cossack has been allowed to paper over the cracks so far, but this ‘murderer’s row’ of snarling front-runners will break him, I fear.
I think a different horse will win each of the three legs.
Or it’ll be the making of him
DC is a horse i’ve liked for a long time and i think he’s a star so i could be a bit biased but bare with me.DC’s best performance was when ridden aggressively at Aintree last season by Mc Coy the man who has/had no fear in pushing horses into every fence and asking them to show what they’ve got. Don has only ever to my eyes made mistakes of any note when left to his own devices and given time to think about getting from A to B, problem here is Bryan Cooper is not the jockey he was pre-injury or at least he wasn’t last season so i’m not sure he’s the man to make up the mind for DC,here’s hoping Cooper gets his bottle back for want of a better phrase because i think ridden aggressively into his fences the Don can carry all before him this year and he’s the only one that can win the million. I was thinking Vautour could too but the more i think about it i can’t see him staying in March and Mullins doesn’t seem to want to send him for the Betfair anyway.
It’s fascinating to see if the best 2 1/2 milers – Vautour & Don Cossack – will get 3m 2f 110y round Cheltenham, come the third leg. Who knows with the former? With Don Cossack, I presume that his stellar Timeform rating comes from Aintree over 2 1/2 miles rather than Punchestown over 3m 1f. In the latter instance, any race where that gorgeous old rogue, The Giant Bolster, is up with the pace for most of the race has been run at cortège speed – slow by 16.1 seconds. This jury is still out.
As for the £1m treble, it beggars belief that ‘the enemy’ – let’s just call him Paddy Power – is offering odds like 33/1 for Don Cossack to win the £1m treble. 2/1 Haydock, 4/1 Kempton, and 6/1 Cheltenham, which is an 104/1 treble.
But it’s not the multiplied odds that count, as far as value goes: among those capable of winning the treble, he is currently the only one likely to go for it, on that basis alone, 40/1 is a daft price.
As for the pace at Punchestown, Elliott described them as being flat out all the way, and DC earned a Topspeed figure of 165 V Aintree’s 155.
The downsides, for me, are Vautour, who could be anything, and DC’s size. He’s been sound throughout a fairly lengthy career, but big horses are more likely to face physical problems.
Anyway, his trainer describes him as 80% to 85% for today; let’s see what he says after the race.
I think your logic is a little fuzzy there, Joe. There are some mutually exclusive events in play here. Even if Don Cossack goes for the treble and Vautour, Coneygree and co don’t, that barely has any impact on what his price should be. Don Cossack will still have to beat top class fields, with various combinations of the best horses in the division showing up in each race.
40/1 is a daft price – but I’d say daft in the other direction.
Would have to agree with TYF – bit of a cheek to call these 3 stand alone events a ‘Relative Bet’.
I backed Ronaldo Golden Boot and Brazil WC winners as a ‘Relative’ double in ’02 – quite acceptable, if Brazil won the WC Ronaldo had 7 matches and had an undisputed mathematical increased chance of being top scorer.
If Don Cossack won at Haydock would that make his chances of winning the KG any greater? No.
Kauto Star was undoubtedly one of the greats, but even he would have probably have failed to win all three if Denman hadn’t been a novice that season.
BUY THE SUN
Have to agree with TYF. DC will have to be at his very best or possibly even improve in some of his races if he is to land all three. He will be against at least one top class chaser in each race. Probably SC in the Betfair, SC, Vautour and Coneygree in the KG and Lord knows in the GC. He may have to encounter significantly different going and with the differing tracks will have to show great versatility. This along with keeping sound for the full season. Even when the legendary KS did this feat back in 2006/07 the chasers he took on were not a patch on the crop we will have this season, ED was the closest to him and would have probably achieved the same feat had KS not been about and he had gone the same route.
Give me 400/1 and I might have a quid
Perhaps I’m a fool here (not unlikely by any means) or just seeing the value aspect a different way.
From a maths viewpoint, if you are pricing an event and there are 4 potential winners of it, but only one is likely to actually contest it, how can 40s not be value, especially when that horse is the top-rated of the four?
Examining the difficulty of carrying out the mechanics of winning the treble is, to an extent, a different matter, and he will indeed face stiff challenges in the other two races. But the non-appearance of those challengers for a leg that makes up 33% of the bet, is a major mathematical factor in his favour, to my mind at least.
As to the mechanics of it, I’m still a Vautour fan, but DC appears to have the speed and the stamina, and he’s won on all types of ground. He bowed out last season on a real high, and if he comes back in the same form, he’d just about be favourite for all three races.
Anyway, I respect the opinions of all the good judges here, and we will just have to settle for a difference of opinion on the value aspect.
Certainly not suggesting you are a fool SC, I wouldn’t be so arrogant or rude – but you state there are four potential winners of a event. Even if you have narrowed down correctly to four (logic seems sound enough to me), there is a fifth option to consider – There is no winner of the event, which is extremely likely.
If it was ‘No Winner, No Bet’, you’d have more of a point IMO.
BUY THE SUN
Had this type of bonus been in place prior to Haydock ruining their chase course, then I can see the value of it but I would seriously doubt whether any horse will attempt all three legs as they all have their own specific targets mapped out well in advance – Silviniaco Conti would be a good bet for the first two legs but I couldn’t see him winning a Gold Cup even if he started now.
If Don Cossack was as good as the ratings suggest, he should have easily of won the Ryanair even allowing for being hampered at the last, to me he as always been a talking horse from his hurdling days but was always found wanting when taking on the top G1 performers. I would also have to seriously question the form of his back end wins (especially at Punchestown) as Djakadam & Road To Riches clearly had recovered from a brutal Gold Cup run and his Aintree beating of Cue Card is nothing to write home about given that Cue Card’s form hasn’t been even remotely of the same standard since he chased home Silviniaco Conti in 2013 King George.
Vatour I see in a similar vein to Florida Pearl & One Man, he will probably stay 3m well enough (looks tailor made for a King George) but that final 2F up Cheltenham’s hill will find him out against the real stayers – Djakadam would be a better choice imho for contesting all three races but being another Ricci horse, I don’t see any chance of them running both in the King George – one will likely stay at home over the Christmas period for the Lexus. Don’t envy Willie Mullins job of trying to make sure his battalions avoid clashing prior to Cheltenham – don’t forget he also has a returning Sir Des Champs to be thrown into the mix as well.
Personally, I wouldn’t want to take 33-1 against any one horse turning up for all three races let alone winning them – fools bet.
I’m probably being a bit dim here, but my idea of ‘value’ is to compare odds offered to likelihood of outcome. If Don Cossack has a 1/3 chance of winning at Haydock, 1/5 at Kempton & 1/7 the Gold Cup, say, he has a 1/105 chance of winning all three.
Once upon a time one could put “any to come” on a betting slip …
£100 Win Don Cossack 2/1 Betfair Chase
any to come
Win Don Cossack 4/1 King George
any to come
Win Don Cossack 6/1 Cheltenham Gold Cup
He had a nice pipe opener yesterday, but I still don’t think he’ll get 3m2f110y at Gold Cup pace.
Can’t see it being won..
The only horse I could have seen doing it was Coneygree, but looks like he will skip what would have been the trickiest leg in favour of lugging top weight around Newbury…just hope that race doesn’t have too much of an affect and rule him out of Kempton because for me, if there is one ‘banker’ of all those three races it will be Coneygree for the King George (providing the GC hasn’t left a mark and he comes back the same or better) if he improves just a little from last season I just cannot see what will live with him at Kempton…
Good effort offering the million though to try and make the Betfair Chase a real cracker!
Unfortunately for me, the noises the trainer is making after today suggest Don Cossack will miss the Betfair. A shame if he does, as he wasn’t out of third gear today and has three weeks until Haydock. Elliott suggesting Kempton might well be the next time we see him. A very exciting horse, whatever happens.
Can’t see it being won..
The only horse I could have seen doing it was Coneygree, but looks like he will skip what would have been the trickiest leg in favour of lugging top weight around Newbury…just hope that race doesn’t have too much of an affect and rule him out of Kempton because for me, if there is one ‘banker’ of all those three races it will be Coneygree for the King George (providing the GC hasn’t left a mark and he comes back the same or better) if he improves just a little from last season I just cannot see what will live with him at Kempton…
Good effort offering the million though to try and make the Betfair Chase a real cracker!
It wouldn’t be offered if it was likely to be won. Coneygree would be a considerably shorter price for the Betfair than he would be for The Hennessy. It would be a no brainer for me if I owned him. Mark Bradstock seemed keen on the bonus when recently interviewed but his missus not so.
DC is a horse i’ve liked for a long time and i think he’s a star so i could be a bit biased but bare with me.
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