Forum Replies Created
- Posts
I notice most on this forum seem to be ‘old school’ comparing form and weights etc. Does this work? If you read twenty year old books by Mordin and Potts etc you get the impression weight didn’t matter much even back in the days before Betfair. Isn’t it more about statistical factors nowadays like horse age, trainer strike rates etc?
Mordin, did write about weight not being important as people thinks, but I think he later wrote that it does matter, only not on the scale traditional punters used.
Nick’s real point is if you want to win and make a profit in racing then you have to be different.
So as it stands, it’s a glorified conditions race with poor old Denman carrying a 26 lb penalty!
Maybe connections of BFT feel [as I do] that P Nicholls isn’t the right sort of trainer for staying chasers. Ferdy Murphy has said that he is the sort of horse that will probably become better over longer distances as he gets older..remember he was only 7 when he first tackled the Aintree fences. Don’t know much about his breeding; Primitive Rising out of Nunsdream.
Blimey! Perhaps Paul Barber, Sir Alex F, Clive Smith, The Stewart Family, Jim Lewis etc. are all going to take their horses up North.
It wasn’t a bad time, as it was the second best time recorded on the day. Nicholls did not get rid of BFT, he was removed by Harry Findley.
JohnJ
Well John,
It was indeed the second fastest chase (or the second slowest), won in a time that would have put him a dozen lengths behind the winner of the veterans race
and
carrying nine lbs less.
You are probably right about Findlay, but seeing as the previous part-owner of BFT is Nicholls’ principal backer and business partner, it is hard not to surmise that if PN had really wanted to keep the horse, that’s where he would have stayed.
Anyway, you have company. http://www.skysports.com/story/0,19528,12427_6512705,00.html.
We all have our favourites, and I don’t dislike the horse in any way: he ran a blinder in the National until he ran out of gas. Probably his best race was his 3rd to Nacarat in the RP Chase. It’s just that I think he has been over-rated because of his connections. He is an 150 horse at best, pretty exposed and ought to be an interesting outsider
not
the same price as, for example, a horse like Carruthers, who dished out a 23 length beating to BFT at Newbury on the same terms as they will meet next week-end.
The fact is I’ve often had to eat my words about horses, and I don’t in the least mind doing so. If you think Big Fella Thanks will win the race, by all means go on and back him: the way the race is run may play to his strengths; Ferdy Murphy may have improved him; he might even sprout wings like Pegasus.
I still think he is a boat, carrying too much weight relative to horses with better credentials, and a skinny price.
Pip pip!
Ssk,
Not doubting that he may be high in the handicap, however, I thought his run at Carlisle was most encouraging. Again, if I may ask the question, how is he as slow as a hearse?
JohnJ
Well it’s a figure of speech, of course. Obviously he’s not as slow as a maiden selling plater, and at the start of his chasing career he looked like an interesting prospect – and still may be in the kind of races where they go too quick and he is able to grind them down – perhaps one of the ‘nationals’ or even the big one. All too often in his career, however, either he has been outclassed or "outground".
Paul Nicholls has a reputation – fairly or otherwise – for being pretty unsentimental when it comes to getting rid of horses that he thinks he has got the best from. One cannot but imagine anything other than flying Nokias at Ditcheat if Denman is denied his hat trick of Hennessy GCs by Big Fella Thanks, the irony being, of course that they are in the same ownership!
As for his time in the March 6 race, it is very impressive. Slow by 1.66 seconds on good to soft. I did notice, however, that on the same card good old Eric’s Charm at the ripe old age of 12 over 3m 2 in the veterans race managed a time which was fast by 2.5 seconds!
Big Fella Thanks: Talking horse that’s poorly handicapped and slow as a hearse. Immediately made me look to see if the shrewd trainer had anything else in it.
If he is that slow, how on earth did he win over 2m 4f at Newbury last March? The time certainly was not that bad considering he won doing handstands whilst idling when he went clear. His last outing at Carlisle would suggest he will come on for the run.
JohnJ
Hmmm. http://www.attheraces.com & look up BFT. Click on the dark blue "future form" bar next to that race, or merely hovver your mouse over it for the summary: 22 runs 0 wins, 2 placed, 20 unplaced; next time out 8 runs, 0 wins, 0 placed, 8 unplaced.
Then again, try the same over his race at Newbury in December – admittedly 1st time out.
His highest winning mark is 146 and he is effectively running off 156 in the Hennessy. Surely he has it all to do and anyway, one imagines that the last thing his owners will want is to screw up his mark for the National.
Actually, I feel sorry for the horse, because, like many rated 146 and over, there are precious few races in the calendar for them.
Pip pip!
If I were to go against Denman, I’d certainly like the look of Burton Port. He’s a horse on the upgrade, he’s decently handicapped (Well, inasmuch as one can be when out of the handicap!) and I think he’s a good e/w bet.
Interesting run down on the Racing Post website
Horses & Thoughts
Denman: Too much weight and may have his own ideas about the game
Neptune Collonges: Best watched after time off
Taranis: Talented, but fragile. Goes well when fresh and needs to here with Carruthers getting 10 lb pull
China Rock: Interesting contender if 3rd to Kauto Star at levels to be taken at face value
Madison Du Berlais: Well handicapped if back to best, but seemed to lose the plot last year
Silver By Nature: Needs it heavy and never won 1st time out
Barbers Shop: Has not won for nearly 2 years and poor first run
Carruthers: Would be half the price if trained by PN or soft ground. Well handicapped on Cheltenham & Aintree Grade 1 form. Course winner thrashing Niche Market & Big Fella thanks.
The Tother One: Not won for 2 years although has put up some decent performances in defeat
Glencove Marina: Not raced beyond 2m6f but good prep race
Diamond Harry: Very talented hurdler who won 2 small field chases in shortened novice season. Needs to improve his jumping
Weird Al: Obvious pick on this season’s form, (dht with Little Josh over inadequate trip) unbeaten over hurdles and fences
Burton Port: Talented young 2nd season chaser who has to enter the reckoning
Dream Alliance: Would enter consideration on soft, but even 10 st is too much
Notre Pere: Very good on heavy ground season before last and prep race would be encouraging were it not for mistakes
Take The Breeze: Fine prep race at Ascot and not too far behind Burton Port at Aintree last year
Big Fella Thanks: Talking horse that’s poorly handicapped and slow as a hearse. Immediately made me look to see if the shrewd trainer had anything else in it.
Hey Big Spender: Beat Big Fella Thanks off levels at Carlisle in the Heavy 1st time out. Not a fan of BFT
Killyglen: Howard Johnson cast off hard to assess
Niche Market: Not for me tho ran well in this in the past
Pandorama: Leading novice last season, first time out not a problem, won in a big field and rates major consideration.
The Package: Big field experience and advantage of a run, but others make more appeal at the weights
Razor Royale: Ran well for a long way 1st time out, but we are getting into "too far wrong" territory
Rare Bob: Not too far away from Glencove Marina & Notre Pere, but too far wrong
Hills Of Aran: Too far wrong
Tatenen: Switched stables – can’t see why he’s still entered at these weights
Horner Woods: Perhaps the change of scene will do him good, but no form since respectful 2nd in fast RSA 09
Dance Island: Too far wrong with the likes of Burton Port
Abbeybraney: Not a prayer
Wogan: Too far wrong and never won 1st time
Saphir Des Bois: Not for me
Far More Serious: Nope
Martys Mission: NopeAre last season’s staying novices as good as we think? This race always goes some way towards answering that question, which is what makes it so exciting. Although 2nd season novices have a great record in this race, it is also true that 7-y-os have a 40% record in this race. My thinking is that Carruthers, though not a novice, has the added bonus of rock solid Cheltenham Gold Cup and Totesport Gold Bowl form in the book to boot and is also best value of my other considerations Wierd Al and Pandorama.
Hi guys,
Bit of a newb but can you help clarify the phrase "competing from out of the handicap" for me please?
With Denman being so heavy in the Hennessy, why will the likes of Diamond Harry and Wierd Al be considered at a disadvantage despite running 26lbs lower?
Thanks for any help.
Handicap weights are based on the "official" BHA ratings relative to the top weighted horse, with the proviso that the minimum weight carried will be 10 stone and the maximum 11 stone 12 lbs
So if Denman is rated at 182 and carries 11 st 12, and Diamond Harry, for example, rated 152 (30 lbs less), DH would in theory carry 9 st 10 were it not for the proviso that the minimum weight to be carried is 10 st. This extra four lbs carried relative to Denman (and those rated less than or equal to 26 lbs inferior to Denman) is described as being 4 lbs "out of the handicap", "wrong" etc..
Fans of Diamond Harry will point to his very strong form in the first of his two completed chases. Beating Knockara Beau (rated 147 at the time) by 16 lengths in receipt of 7 lbs – perhaps that should give him a figure of 156.
Then again, his Newbury form against Bensalem (140) giving 3 lbs and winning by 2 lengths – 145? That does not read quite so well.
Five wins from 7 races over hurdles with a rating of 164 means he has the potential to go all the way to the top over fences. His win over the brush hurdles at Haydock was impressive and in a big field. If he produces that form at Newbury over fences (theoretically 10 st 8, so 8 lbs well in), he will almost certainly win! If he produces that form and is beaten by Denman, then Denman has run his best ever race.
Personally, I think Diamond Harry’s two wins over fences were egg and spoon jobs, he has not had enough experiences over the larger obstacles and I am not that impressed with his jumping. Yes, he loves Newbury, 9 from 12 under rules, always won 1st time out.
I quite like statistical arguments but I think the age of winner stats are potentially misleading. The key stat is
winners at age x/runners at age x. If very few ten year olds enter then we would not expect many ten year olds to win.It may be that the adjusted stats tell the same story as the unadjusted stats, but until this is clarified I don’t find them in themselves overwhelmingly against Denman. It’s simply a matter of biology for me.
I have been trying to find out more about the aging process in horses but can’t find out much that is scientific. It seems like roughly you can multiply a horse’s age by 3 to get the human equivalent so Denman would be 31 and a half or just over the hill if he was a human steeplechaser. Does anyone know any more e.g. do French bred horses age more quickly?
I can’t be arsed to do the age x/runners at age x math, but I have the feeling that 10-y-os are under-represented. In any case, it appears to me that conditions discriminate against older horses (or is that favour younger ones?).
The age of winner stat is something of an obsession for me and worked very nicely in last year’s Cheltenham GC where I found that 10-y-os have a poor record not only as winners, but also as placed horses. The result was that I laid both Kauto Star and Denman for places. Before the race, I was convinced that the Denman lay was already money in the bank, and vice versa with Kauto Star. I was wong of course, but as it turned out Kauto Star’s misfortune proved the more lucrative.
Kauto Star and Denman cannot go on for ever; Imperial Commander will have turned 10 next year. They may have a couple of big days left in them, but two things are certain in this game. First, horses do decline eventually. Secondly, statistics do not "strive for balance" any more than a tossed coin "strives" to come down tails after coming down heads the time before. It may not be "smart" WLIVELY, but you have to start somewhere.
I am mystified why Denman is fav for this. He has won only one of his last 7 races, he may be past his best at 10 and a half and it is a handicap with probably about 16 runners. If he is now on the decline the handicap should make him worse than average so he should be more than 15-1.
Quite agree. No 10-y-o has won since Diamond Edge in 1981. Only two have won it ever – one was Mandarin (and one 11-y-o).
Much as I love the horse, if he wins this one, it will be the greatest weight carrying performance since Arkle. If I was Barry Dennis I’d be rubbing my hands at the prospect of taking him on.
For the record
6-y-os have won 10 times i.e. 19%
7-y-os have won 21 times i.e. 40%
8-y-os have won 8 times i.e. 17%
9-y-os have won 10 times i.e. 19%
10-y-os have won 2 times i.e. 4%
11-y-os have won 1 time i.e. 2%Look for a young ‘un off a feather weight!
Bear in mind that statistics strive for balance and this could be the race where the figures turn in favor of 10 year old contenders. I don’t think ruling out selections on the basis of age alone is a smart thing to do.
I see. So if I toss a coin five times and it comes up heads each time will you offer me 5/1 about it happening for the sixth time?
I hope you would check my coin to make sure it had a tails on its reverse and offer me evens.
I am mystified why Denman is fav for this. He has won only one of his last 7 races, he may be past his best at 10 and a half and it is a handicap with probably about 16 runners. If he is now on the decline the handicap should make him worse than average so he should be more than 15-1.
Quite agree. No 10-y-o has won since Diamond Edge in 1981. Only two have won it ever – one was Mandarin (and one 11-y-o).
Much as I love the horse, if he wins this one, it will be the greatest weight carrying performance since Arkle. If I was Barry Dennis I’d be rubbing my hands at the prospect of taking him on.
For the record
6-y-os have won 10 times i.e. 19%
7-y-os have won 21 times i.e. 40%
8-y-os have won 8 times i.e. 17%
9-y-os have won 10 times i.e. 19%
10-y-os have won 2 times i.e. 4%
11-y-os have won 1 time i.e. 2%Look for a young ‘un off a feather weight!
No bigger fan of the great Denman than I. His weight carrying performance last year was special.
But …
In theory had he run off 182 – this years mark – this would have been the result.
1)Barbers Shop
2)Shd What A Friend
3)1/2 Denman
etcThis year there will be a dozen improving types rated in the 150s running off 10 stone.
E.G Carruthers beaten 23 lengths in the Gold Cup and receiving 26 lbs. Perhaps the great horse will improve again!
Just got off the ‘phone to Mark Bradstock. Carruthers schooled very nicely this morning and does his last piece of fast work tomorrow.
PS he was at Exeter and said that Denman worked like a lary *******.
Denman is a stone cold lay. He is a wonderful horse and it will be great to see him back, but anybody considering backing him for this race would do well to remember the following.
* His scintillating GC win left its mark on him as has been well publicised: granted he ran a cracker in last year’s GC. But let us face it: he was ridden to get second and given a pretty tender ride – all very understandable in the circumstances. But, his run at Aintree was a dead cat bounce. So many good horses never recover from their exertions of winning the GC and until he shows that he has done so
on the racecourse
, he is only for the dreamers.
* The older a horse becomes, the more likely he is to need his first run of the season: Let us presume he
is
back to his best (i.e. an RPR of 184), lack of a run combined with the fact that (I presume) this is not his main objective this season one would expect him to put up a performance of about 177. That would be one hell of an achivement, a great feat of training, good enough to win most Cheltenham Gold cups etc.,
but still not good enough to win the race
!
Weight adjusted, that means that only one of Roll Along, My Will, Barbers Shop, War of Attrition, What a Friend, Gone to Lunch, Carruthers, Chelsea Harbour, or Ballyfitz have to run to form and they will have him beat. Cappa Bleu, anybody?).
There’s been quite a lot of talk about his first Hennessy win. With 20/20 hindsight he was well handicapped, running against an inferior field to this one and fully wound up so that Mr H Findlay could get his money down under a smokescreen of some pretty misleading pre-race comments from his trainer.
Not for me!
Some thoughts about Carruthers.
I doubt that he will run if the ground is good, and although he does not need it to be heavy, it will suit him more than others if it is.
6 and 7 year olds (often second season chasers) have won the race 59%, 8 & 9-y-os 34% 10+ 6%.
C does not need a ‘soft lead’ or to dominate his races. His style of racing is that of an old fashioned chaser: a relentless galloper. He makes the running or is handy for two reasons, which are: to make use of his high cruising speed and to give him a good view of his fences.
Have another look at the RSA chase if you can. I saw him in the paddock before the race and he looked half the size of the other runners and still pretty weak behind the saddle: there is much more to come. As for him going off too fast – I don’t think he went any slower in the Reynoldstown. (Off 10-1 in the Hennessy he is hardly likely to hang about either!). The final placings reflect his (uncharacteristic) blunder at the 3rd last rather than his comprehensive defeat of many named in this thread, to whit: Casey Jones, What a Friend, Siegemaster, The Market Man, Ballyfitz, Gone to Lunch, Lodge Lane, Hold Em and Killyglen.
On the face of it his run in the ‘Badger’ was a little disappointing, until one considers his performance at the weights that technically put him second to The Tother One by 11 lbs – a fair performance given that he needed the race. (Also it’s worth noting that the time of the race was pretty decent).
Totally agree with others here that he has ideal credentials for the Welsh National (provided it is fresh heavy and not Chepstow claggy).
Lastly, good luck to the Denman connections if they think he can give lumps of weight to improving young horses. He ran one decent race last year in between two stinkers. I think that he has his own ideas about the game as any scrutiny of the trainer’s remarks about him will confirm. 11/2 is a mugs price – anybody taking it has started a new religion.
