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Thanks to all for their views. I don’t want to prolong this thread, either, so I’ll finish by saying that the most valuable thing in all this is our health.
Woods is dead; Moore is dead; and I get the feeling that Bentner has retired.
I’m just happy to be able to stand out in the rain and watch horses go galloping by. That’s my idea of value.
Thanks to all for the interesting replies.
Does anyone know the purpose of the present-day whip?
It may turn out to be no more necessary than the now obsolete spurs. Perhaps now is the time to look into the matter with a thoroughness, rather than wait until our hand is forced by those who may not care for our game.
It’s true that there is a lot of politics on this forum, Welsh Wizard, but I feel it’s just another cross we have to bear for our interest in racing.
I already offended one guy who reckons he lives in Thailand. He couldn’t understand it when I said I don’t like many of the people in the racing game.
It doesn’t stop me getting along. Perhaps, that’s the essence of so-called "democracy", which is a fine ideal that doesn’t really exist anywhere, except in people’s heads, imo.Btw, I heard a good few taffy voices at Ludlow on Monday. Were you there yourself? There were some from Kerdiff.
Mind you, there’s always somebody worse off: poor old Zorro above reckons he’s proud to be British, but I think he’s really from Aberystwyth!
More like waves, perhaps?
I think it rare for things to go full circle, but the little ups and downs are what puts life into racing.
it would be interesting to see the profile for, say, Authorised. At the Derby it seemed that everthing else was just playing a supporting role, whereas at the Arc, he seemed to have plummeted right off the charts!
The dreaded "flatness" has been mentioned and, though I’m loath to bring it up here, I’m reminded of Ginger’s table of percentages, which are all averages.
Still, a bit of flatness never seemed to stop Twiggy, so I shall continue to pedal the wheel of fortune.I can’t help wondering whether "series of undulations" would be a better "concept" than "cycles".
My own view is that the lifetime form of most racehorses would shape something like a fairly flat and little bit wiggly rainbow.
Thank you for your constructive comments, Firestorm. I understand your point about the effect on balance.
However, most serious whipping involves the rider loosing go the reins with one hand. The shoulder flicking is something else. I often see no contact at all, with the waving of the whip being enough to spur on the animal.
I don’t really accept that a professional rider cannot manage without both hands on the reins. The more times I watch rodeos, the more I think I’m right about that.
No, we weren’t racing under organised rules – just kids games, you know. Most of us didn’t even have a saddle or proper reins!
I haven’t voted either way, and I don’t suppose I will. There seems to be enough politicians on here without my getting involved.
Judging by tonight’s racing, I don’t see the whip being much of an aid for steering, really.
Let’s hope a jockey comes on and tells us what exactly is the purpose of the whip. The tool seems to be getting lighter and softer every five years. I’d have thought that if it were a vital bit of kit, then that old plastic blue pipe would be more effective, perhaps.
The trouble is, it’s so hard to know whether it is the actual sting of whip ,or, just the fear of a flailing object, that does the trick. The animal cannot tell us, and, judging by the certs they write, the expert vets will tell us anything that suits their purpose.The general public know only what the media tells them. I’ll try to keep an open mind on the subject.
That’s interesting, Firestone, and I think that’s what most riders would say:
to regain the horse’s attention.However, what I haven’t really understood is why this could not be done by a slap with the hand?
That’s what we often did, though some lads did pluck a twig out of the hedge because they couldn’t reach the hind-quarters.
I would agree that this thread has run long enough, but may I just ask a few, final, questions?
I note that Zoso stated he’s a pro-punter of some five years standing. What about yourself, Ginger?
You strike me as someone on the fringe of media work. You often mention Timeform.
No need to answer if you feel this is prying; just curious, that’s all.Lastly, a table -related question:
You say, over and over. that we need a better than 25% SR to make our 3/1 shots pay. Fair enough.
25% is one out of four. Better than one winner from four runs must be a minimum of two winners from four runs in real terms, imo. I didn’t want to be dealing in quarter winners and half winners, or the like.Looking at it this way, I seem to have gone way wrong, despite all your efforts with the table.
I appear to be saying that to make a profit at 3/1, I need two out of every four of my selections to win.Can you show me where I went wrong? I expect the reply to be something about the long term.
Btw, you were concerned that punters, in the main, didn’t want to make a profit.Well, in my case, I can assure you that making a profit, by backing, is my top priority.
I’m not convinced that the whip is essential to horseracing myself. What is its purpose?
I asked this somewhere else on here, but cannot remember the reply.
Unlike FOF, I’m not a works-rider or owner, but I rode scores of horses, ponies and donkeys when I was young, but never once had a whip. Perhaps that’s why I wasn’t a very good jockey.
Foxhunting, btw, is alive and well. Some people go out most weeks during the winter.
I don’t think Kieren ever left Ballydoyle. According to the word, he has done a lot to bring horses on at the yard.
As was said above, it’s a business; they hired him for what he can do.When the ban is over, he’ll still be younger than Micky Joe, whom they were using last season.
Johhny M is a great guy and a very good jockey, but he’s had his problems too.
There will be room enough for all of them, imo.
Sean Rua.
Some interesting stuff here, Zoso.
I thought your spreadsheet was very good, but I’m surprised you are not looking for another EW opportunity in the Gold Cup.
What do you think of my EW bet on Exotic Dancer?
Pretty silly , I suppose, as he may not run.
I think one cause of the disagreement between those who rate value prices and those who value winners is
that the value seekers are taking a longer term view.It is true, imo, that each and every race is a unique, once-off, event. The vast majority of punters seem content to try find the winner, on a race by race basis. There’s nothing quite like the feeling of backing a winner!
I know, it’s even happened to me once or twice.What I think the smart users of value are saying and, perhaps, doing is treating the game more as a profit-making venture over a series of events that adds up, hopefully, to a longterm profitable process.
This is probably a more business-like approach and is more akin to the view taken by the bookmakers; what counts is how things stand financially at the end of the year, rather than at the end of a race.Be this as it may, there is still no fixed mathematical way to predict the future, imo, though, indeed, there may be some pretty accurate methods to make profitable estimates.
My own way involves plenty of guesswork and assumption, but as long as it keeps me just slightly ahead, I’m not too bothered whether ’tis luck, judgement, or, a thorough understanding and application of the value concept, that keeps me ticking over!Btw, was Nowhere still value at 16/1 or, did the "value" go once the 20/1 was taken?
The man never sat on a thoroughbred till he was eighteen years of age. Because he was always terrifically strong for his weight, he pushed to the top in what is a nasty, cut-throat business.
A very good jockey.
Drug use is widespread, imo. I don’t like it, but I have to admit that it is probably fact.
Lawyers have told me that coke use is prevalent among several of the most successful people in the western world. I don’t doubt them.Finally, we should not forget that Kieren won the race in question, and won it well. I don’t think any of the anti-Fallon brigade could get anywhere near winning after a skinful of legal alcohol or a lungful of "tokes".
If I were ever rich enough and silly enough to own a top racehorse, KF would be my first choice jockey every time.
I’m biased. I know he’s good. He’ll be back.Well, I’m out now.
We’ll get nowhere with this, imo.
In Charlie D’s quote about Ragozin, the inventor of the term "bounce", I can find no mention of a long lay-off, never mind a quantification of how many days.
However, I assumed all along that a lay-off was the prerequisite of peaking and bouncing. Perhaps it isn’t.
Personally, whenever I hear of a "peak" being reached, I expect a bit of downhill to follow; not a plateau; not another "peak" on top of a "peak".
Good luck to any who make the theory pay. As far as I can tell, theory is all it is, but if it helps, then fair enough.
I’ll leave it for those who understand.
