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The bounce factor

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Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 82 total)
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  • #6364
    Zoso
    Member
    • Total Posts 479

    I just wondered what everyones opinion was on the bounce factor. It’s a question that seems to split people in racing, so I thought I would make a poll to see what the forum thinks on the subject.

    #137082
    crizzy
    Participant
    • Total Posts 789

    Ah, yes, that bounce factor…What does that mean? :? Sorry, am I alone in the dark? Let me know and I’ll have a vote……

    #137102
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8966

    Surely there is enough data available to test this theory (tho I haven’t got the time nor the inclination)

    #137105
    robert99
    Participant
    • Total Posts 899

    Really need to define first and agree what the bounce factor is thought to be by those discussing it. So often the arguments for and against are at cross purposes because they are arguing different aspects and with hindsight of specific cases rather than any generality. If it exists, it is reliably predictable before the event.

    #137107
    Librettist
    Member
    • Total Posts 559

    It exists alright, in some horses more markedly than others. Luckily, I lot of people do not believe it does exist, which presents a number of good betting opportunities to those that do :)

    #137116
    crizzy
    Participant
    • Total Posts 789

    Thanks TC for answering. Don’t really have an opinion but thanks. You learn something new every day. Cheers, Crizzy

    #137155
    jodami16
    Member
    • Total Posts 27

    I don’t think Well Chief got much chance to bounce at Chelt last March since he fell at the second. Having said that, he probably bounced at Aintree instead.

    I’d agree it exists. Seems to occur when run 1 and 2 back from injury are close together. Would love to see some stats though.

    #137156
    Kingston Town
    Member
    • Total Posts 1049

    Wondered what that meant :D Here and down under we call it ‘second up syndrome’ but it applies to all horses returning from a spell and not necessarily injury.
    A more than acceptable reason for defeat in many circles and one that is factored into form when it has been seen before in the same horse.

    #137157
    jodami16
    Member
    • Total Posts 27

    It’s commonly thought that even when a horse runs first time out it’s fresh and feels good and loose and runs well, then second up the horse is stiff, sore and just doesn’t stretch out the same way. I get it when I go for my second jog after a few weeks off. Seems perfectly rational really.

    #137169
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    I think it is very hard for any track athlete, equine or human, to produce two outstanding performances in quick succession. By outstanding performances, I mean very fast times compared to the standards for the course and the conditions. There are physiological reasons for this and the ‘bounce’ usually occurs when it is attempted. This putting together of two outstanding performances is even harder when the athlete returns from any sort of lay off.

    I have read about this in various sources, particularly the articles written by James Willoughby. The theory seems to be that athletes have to dig very deeply into their physical and psychological resources to post very fast times, and they cannot usually do this without a break between races.

    Many horses can follow up a fast time win with a victory but it is usually in a race where the pace is not so punishing. Athletes are often forced to compete in heats leading up to the finals but they are usually careful to save themselves for the main event.

    There are exceptions, but they are invariably ‘super athletes’ like Jesse Owens or Flo-Jo(suspicion of artificial help?). In the equine sphere, a horse would have to win the Gold Cup and the Grand National in the same season to be regarded as ‘super’ in this sense. In Flat racing, horses are rarely asked to win two highly competitive top class races(particularly handicaps) in quick succession. If they do, the times for both are unlikely to be very fast.

    #137170
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2924

    …………..with the possible exception of sprints, Artemis.

    Colin

    #137189
    Blackheath
    Member
    • Total Posts 105

    Ah the myths of racing. :)

    Any number of anecdotes, never any hard statistical evidence.

    #137195
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2924

    Mainly because it is almost impossible to define, as it will vary from horse to horse but nevertheless likely to be a valid reason/excuse for an underperformance.

    Colin

    #137197
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Mainly because it is almost impossible to define, as it will vary from horse to horse but nevertheless likely to be a valid reason/excuse for an underperformance.
    Colin

    Colin

    Maybe it’s only impossible to define because it doesn’t exist?
    And as a result is used by the Mordins of this world to ‘explain’ away disappointing runs when there is a more solid reason in the formbook – as there was with Well Chief, for instance?

    #137209
    Zoso
    Member
    • Total Posts 479

    Mainly because it is almost impossible to define, as it will vary from horse to horse but nevertheless likely to be a valid reason/excuse for an underperformance.
    Colin

    Colin

    Maybe it’s only impossible to define because it doesn’t exist?
    And as a result is used by the Mordins of this world to ‘explain’ away disappointing runs when there is a more solid reason in the formbook – as there was with Well Chief, for instance?

    My opinion would be that the bounce factor is a medical fact and is proven. I believe if you asked any doctor, physio etc then they would ensure you that the bounce factor exists in any living being (man or animal) that has muscles.

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