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Not all owners are bent………yes of course thats true but here is a true story.<br>A bookmaker friend of mine owned a Hunter Chaser called The P****** L*** it raced in a hunter chase at Plumpton 2 years ago came 2nd. The week later it was down to run at Parham Park (A point 2 point track near Pullborough). The horse had by far the best form and my mate got up on to his soap box last the odds on his horse were 2/5 he felt very generous and was giving money away it seemed as he was going 4/7 the second fav he ‘forgot ‘ to mark up so he took no money on that. I was asked to place quite a lot for him on the second fav there were only 4 runners and the other 2 would have had to start the day before to have any chance of winning!The Racing Post reported the race as such’ Fav P****** L*** seemed to be travelling the best throughout the race but horse had given away to much lead at the start but late headway to come 2nd.<br>2nd Fav won by the way. The trainer was later banned for something totally different. Her Jockey son got banned also although he is back now in racing.
Rory,<br>I produced the overall profit/loss situation of the trainers and not the jockeys. You can be my bookie if you like but I have many ‘account closed’ letters.<br> I will willingly send to you first you may wish to re consider your kind offer then!<br>
Pogues is correct.<br>Martin Pipes horses always are a point or 2 below value and overall backing every one to level stakes will cost you money every year. The best trainer to follow blindly is Paul Nicholls he will normally show an overall profit at the end of a season 21.72 points overall profit last season he raced 452 horses less than Mr PIPE last season but had only 99 less winners.He has made an overall profit to level stakes at s.p for the last 3 seasons. Martin Pipe lost 114.63 last season to the same criterea.
As regards A.P. Mc COY I have seen first hand how good he is with the public at Plumpton last season he took a crashing fall come back in covered in mud yet still had time to sign an autograph for a lady in a wheelchair befor going in the jockeys room. He returned a little later and presented the lady with all the autographs of the jockeys and one of his jockey silks. Pity some of the flat jockeys do not treat the public the same. He does a lot for charity playing football this coming Sunday at Greatwood Retired horserace centre does bungee jumping also for charity at Lamboune open day. A credit to his proffesion. So well done Tony on beating the record (he has not done so yet but by the end of this week) he would have done so.
Check out these facts if you think Mark Johnson is not a good a trainer as A.P. O’Brien.<br>2 year olds for exmple at Ascot<br>Mark johnson has always made a punter betting level stakes money where as all the so called ‘best 2 year old<br>they ever have had ‘seems to be the thing to say about all the O’Brien horses. Maybe I am biased as I backed <br>Helm Bank (won 25/1 ) beat the odds on Irish horse and again yesterday another 2 year old Mark Johnson horse THE BONUS KING 2nd 10/1 beaten a head ith the Irish fav 3 lenghts behind at 4/7!<br>
Smithy,<br>Yes that was the horse I remeber it well. I wished I had bet first past the post.
Very good subject…………but one has to be a little careful but here is a few I knew about.
G.L. Moore one at Bath 2 years ago 2 people bought new mercedes from this one.
Noel Chance he openly admits thats how he got going especially in nat hunt flat races remember No Collusion<br>at Newbury that was one!
Pam Sly had one at Mussleburgh 50/1 only got beat becauses a horse in front of it fell and stopped the run it come 2nd.Broanard was the name.I got another ban from a chain of independants for that one.
Goldie does super yankees he has had 4 win all the same day but not at same track. He also had 3 win and <br>one fall at the last whilst in the lead.
L.CUMANI had Zombraddah in a maiden at Brighton opened 6/4 went to 10/11 won very easily he had mega money on it according to my source the next race it entered was the Italian Oaks which the horse also won.<br>I collected from W Hills who were on the rails that day
Ellison B. Stakis Casino Boy at Mussleburgh the owner was Ashley Carr they went up from Gatwick on awayday<br>they had 40K on at 6/4 the biggest recorded bet on the jumps at Mussleburgh …….why does an owner who lives in Sussex have some horses trained in North Yorkshire! The Sun and Star and my local paper did any article about the mystery punter as Ashley denied iany knowledge! I have the cutting from local paper still.<br>lADBROKES HAD TO GIVE ME A CHEQUE FOR THAT ONE.
A. BAILEY had one at Chester won at 16/1 but got thrown out for crossing over to quickly to the rails.He had mega dosh on.
K.C. Bailey had Alderbrook and Master Oats he brought a lot of building work with the profits
loads more but some a bit delicate to post dont want to lose any info!
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Just from a betting point of view you would have won overall just putting level stakes on every bin surroor horse but lose overall on every pipey one last 3 seasons.There are many trends to follow with the pipe runners and one is avoid any race at fontwell except nh flat races (see another1/2 beaten Mon by the trainer who wins the money in non hand chases there to level stakes P. Nicholls is the man at Fontwell in any non hand chase and another 6/1 winner yesterday. It is not the first time Pipey has a four timer at Ascot he done it at the last meeting its trainers for couses .If you saw some nutter jumping up and down urging home Perange today by the winning line sorry but it was me!
Rory<br>Check out the stats for 6 favs to win or to lose everyrace on a 6 race card!<br>The main thing to understand it does not happen every day but over a season. Just the same as any business including Ladbrokes operate.
I mean that although the stats may not help you find a winner Mary Reverley at Cheltenham for example (terrible strike rate for whatever reason) BUT you could use this knowledge to oppose her and lay them in Betfair.Some are just so obscure they are not worth botherering about how many horses win after 2 runs or 3 runs for example. Believe me it is all available!<br>try this site http://www.racedata.demon.co.uk it is exellent
The way I treat Mr Pipe. Find tracks where he has made overall profits in the same type of race season after season and stick to those. He is actually quite consistent in this respect.<br>Asot any type of hurdle race<br>Doncaster any non hand hurdle race (winner last week 3/1)<br>Folkestone any non hand hurdle race<br>Fontwell any n/h bumper<br>Hereford any hand hurdle race only<br>Lingfield Any HAND CHASE only<br>New Abbot any Non Handicap race<br>Plumpton any non hand race<br>Sandown any hand chase and non hand hurdle race<br> 50/1 2nd here from Mr Pipe<br>Sedgefield Any hurdle race<br>Taunton Any Hand Hurdle race<br>hope this helps<br>
Lies, Dam Lies and statitistics that the old saying but I know in racing they work.<br>On average 33.3 % of favs will win so whatever the price of the last one of the day if 5 have won (on a 6 race card) the % of the last fave winning is under2% yet if none have won it is just over 98% . That could be useful for example.Tke Nods Nephew a week agoan example of that stat in action!<br>The best are trainers stats it took Epsom tainer T.Mills seven seasons to have a winner at Epsom.<br>Even if you back every Godolfin runner the last 3 seasons you would have made an overall profit .<br>Mary Reverley an exellent trainer but the stats show terrible results at Cheltenham and yet another joint fav at the last meeting (got well beat) I layed it in Betfair.<br>Of course some stats are useless but there are ways of using them to your advantage.
Spephen Little one of the big rails bookmakers who went in the end to rep for Coral used to have no opinion admit to study no form but just bet with his over round margin .He drives around in a Bentley. Its a bit like the inbuilt odds in a casino they have a slight advanatge all the time and this will in the end see that they make a profit.<br>There is someone I know who bets on BAGS dogs in the afternoon and especially after the gee gees have finished the reps will always try and shorten up the favs so whatever price they chalk up the reps will threaten to attempt to want to back the fave to several thousand pounds the only way to avoid it is to reduce the jolly’s price you cannot afford to lay the bets as there are only 3-4 bookies there and they would not stand it between them this is why many bags greyhounds have a mark up of 140% nothing they can do if they miss the rota for the afternoon they cannot stand at the night meetings!
Matron,<br>what is the type of system you would use then throw in the magic words ‘gut feeling’!<br>I think that this thread is VERY enlightening!<br>We all live by systems like it or not!<br>We all stop on red lights and go on green what would happen if we decided to apply gut feeling and think well<br>most of the time lights go red I shoiuld stop but I have a gut feeling?<br>Even people who bet on the names of a grandson have a system (it may not be good but that is what it is) but why have a gut feeling and decide I always back any name with John but this time I fancy Mary?
I may be rigid in this thinking but OVERALL I know it works!<br>A great subject…….keep posting
exellent post Johnygringo,<br>the main reason (as I have already potsed) why people leave systems is not the actual sysytem as nothing in life is a certainty and the only certainty is that there never has been one and NEVER WILL. <br>It is just a case of poor money management but easier to blame someone else or a system than oneself!
Keith<br>I cannot understand your logic over this.<br>Lets leave betting alone and take any big company say Tesco’s they know by siting store where they do having the car parks as big as they do stocking the lines they do having cutomer loyalty cards etc etc etc in a way it is all a system as they know rom past results that these things do work. There will be some years where one store might burn down or a reccession where people spend less but overall they are all based on past performance they obviously are looking for new ways of making more money like openeing mini shops in garages 24/7 but they do not after a bad year decide all the methods they have appiled the seasons they have made profits suddenly get ditched!<br>If you apply this thinking to a betting sytem that has done well why should it not continue after a losing spell<br>everyone who bets will have a losing spell,. If you read Gary Wiltshires (the rails bookie) postings on GG.com you will read he also has losing weeks but he knows if he keeps standing at the track overall he will make money that is his system.<br>Even just guessing if thats all someone ever does is still a sysytem although it may not be a good un!
It must be that time of year again.<br>The subject will never go away but ok so they ban the G.NAT what is next?<br>I live in a big seaside town and on the marina they have painted signs about how cruel sea fishing is so lets ban that as well it will go on and on .If a horse falls in a race how many pick themselves up and still jump the fences even in the G.Nat this happens what about show jumping should that not be top of this list as the fences are even higher?<br>Some of the fences at Plumpton even Frankie Dettori could jump without a horse but horses still fall there so lets ban that as well.
