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Killjoy – sorry

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  • #3947
    Jake
    Member
    • Total Posts 12

    <br>All,

    I’m so sorry to be the bearer of bad news, and maybe I am speaking out of turn. But, does anyon truly think that a system can make money if people (the public)know about said system?

    Regards & Good Luck<br>Jake<br>

    #90936
    Daylight
    Member
    • Total Posts 369

    I think the different systems within this forum answer that question for you – I think Keith the Teeth hit the nail on the head when he said ‘some systems work for a while’ but if it were common knowledge of a guarenteed system known by the public then those system selections would all be favorites.

    #90937
    Jake
    Member
    • Total Posts 12

    Day,

    Sorry if I sounded extra negative, but I have heard allth ehype before. I think you are quite right, about the system being public knowledge, that is THE big difference. Systems can and do work, but once in the public domian, they cannot remain profitable, due to the factors you mention.

    regards & Good Luck<br>Jake<br>

    #90939
    Steve SB
    Member
    • Total Posts 4

    Hi Jake,

    I believe that the only way to assess a system is lots of data (2 years minimum). I’ve assessed many systems over this period including some of those posted on this (great) site, and it is clear that the norm is for ups and downs. i.e. a system can win for 2, 3 or 4 months, then will lose for 2, 3 or 4 months.

    However, it has to be said, in my opinion and experience, that over longer periods, the majority of systems are losers (just like the majority of tipsters are losers – including professionals). If you look at the tipping competition on this site only 4 out of 22 made a profit (18%). If you look at proofing services it’s much the same.

    Staking is important. Different plans can make unprofitable systems profitable; but the reverse is also true – so again a good run of historical data will help pick the best staking plan for a particular system. In general a system that picks a high percentage of lower priced winners will benefit from plans that incorporate doubles or some sort of increasing stakes on losers; systems that pick a low percentage of winners but with possibly high prices benefit from level stakes etc. etc.

    However, if systems do go through winning and losing streaks then it might still be possible to follow one which is a long-term loser if the winning streaks are long enough to spot and then keep going after you start following them!

    This is easier said than done because you have to make enough money during the winning streak to cover the start of the next losing streak (which you will have to bet on before you realise it has started – if you see what I mean).

    Anyway, what this all means, in my opinion, is that while a "system" seems to suggest:

    "a formula that you can apply in 5 minutes every day then sit back and wait for the money to roll in"

    what it actually means is hard work, continuous monitoring, detailed records and intelligent reaction to changing situations.

    As ever nothing is ever free!<br>

    #90941
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    Oh ye of little faith, and you Mr Killjoy…  :biggrin:<br>I really dont see how you lot can knock systems at all, I would doubt that all you lot that spend hours studying time, form, camber and ensuring the suns shining from the right direction, fare any better than the boys on their systems…. the gg’s dont run to form and just because they ran quick the last time doesn’t mean that they can be arsed (good play on words that) to do it again. No my friends, the answer aint in form or time either cos if it was we’d all be holidaying in the Bahamas. People who are very well paid in their full time jobs doing just that, are struggling, so I dont think that "Systemites" deserve this knocking in any way…… see Urby, I told you that if you kept picking crap, the boys would be round….    :biggrin:<br>You keep going lads and put these doubters in their places…… they dont like it up ’em……..<br>:smiley:  :smiley:<br>Oh, I nearly forgot, Good Morning Matron……

    MrE

    #90943
    Matron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5858

    Good Morning MrE – nice see you on form today.

    Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

    #90945
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    :jivin:<br>Oh, HAHAHAHA…… On FORM…. yeah, nice one Matron… you’ll be the death of me….   HAHAHAHA……

    MrE

    #90947
    Matron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5858

    I thought you might pick up on that one. :laugh: :laugh:

    Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

    #90949
    Urban Dave
    Member
    • Total Posts 629

    Have you been at the sherry again E’sy?

    Picking crap, not up till 11 … if it weren’t so true I’d call my lawyer. Well, I would if I had one.

    #90952
    Keith the teeth
    Member
    • Total Posts 36

    Mr E  

    Steve SB posts a well reasoned, researched opinion.  Your response seems to assume that anyone who doesn’t follow a system is a slave to the form book.  <br>If you read it again you may see that he knows what he’s talking about and gives no indication of being a form book student.

    Oh, by the way I agree that if studying the form book was the route to riches half the members of this forum would be millionaires.

    #90953
    Jake
    Member
    • Total Posts 12

    RE: Following the form book.

    I think there is a misconception here that the form book as quoted here says simply "horse x beat horse y by 2 lengths. horse x was conceding z pounds to horse y" The next time they met, using simpe mathematics would produce an answer. Obviously it is not this simple as you rightly point out. Following strict form lines and nothing else often leads you directly to the favourite, as most should know, it’s almost impossible to make good money backing favourites.

    It is more about interpretation of the form book, and the underlying conditions, how the race was run etc etc. Nowadays video evidence is also an invaluable aid to a form student.

    Any obvious system cannot make money, it’s that simple. Take as an example the fineform rating formula or the aw handicap carriers. They DID make money, but market forces compress the prices of selections until they are no longer profitable.

    Anyone who does have a system that makes money over the long term, I suggest you keep the system private, and divulge to no-one, otherwise it will become an unprofitable system.

    Regards & Good Luck<br>Jake

    A student of the form book!

    #90955
    Matron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5858

    In my humble opinion everybody works to a system of their own whether they gleen information from a "form book" or from "stats" that they apply to their final decision of placing their money down on a horse.

    A good staking system will certainly enhance profits, but <br>"LSP" is essential to make money long term. With "short priced" selections a good staking plan is essential to increase profits and personally opt for "rolling doubles".

    I’m sure MrE will posts his valid thoughts on this subject.

    Regards – Matron<br>:cool:<br>

    #90957
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    Hi guys….. its a pleasure to meet you all down here but if were gonna enter into a serious debate, you’d better take the blinkers off….. what I’ve just read is cobblers of the highest order. Just because systems haven’t worked for you in the past doesn’t mean that they dont work at all. I’m not going to go into the whole concept again cos I’ve written at great length in Matrons thread "First Favourites" or summat like that….. hang on, I feel a smiley coming…. <br>:smiley: :smiley:<br>ahhhh, thats better….. I’ve been using the system that Matrons using (well, nearly) for 9 years on Jan 1st, and as of yet, I aint had a losing year….. and who keeps spreading that rubbish about that you cant make money betting short prices, you oughta be done for conning the members…. hehehehe….. joking guys…. just take a look at Matrons selections from way back in June, he’s only had one losing month so far (December might be another…. sorry Matron) but he’s still 90 points in profit. At 25 points layout per month it’ll take over 3 months without a win for him to be in deficit and that aint likely to happen is it…….. No my friends, you have most definitely got it wrong, systems do work and betting short aint always the way to the poorhouse……<br>so any of you forumites that enjoy using systems, dont let the knockers blow you off course. The key is to enjoy your racing experience with as little loss as possible, systems do that for me….. I love ’em…..<br>:biggrin:  :biggrin:

    MrE

    #90959
    Matron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5858

    Another point with "us" systems men and women is we are always beavering away working hard to find a better one.

    I have another two on the go, but will not not post the selection process probably for another year until I am satisfied they could be viable and profitable long term.

    Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

    #90960
    Daylight
    Member
    • Total Posts 369

    Everybody who makes a selection on the horses applies a system surely?

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