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Redman,<br>Have you any actual proof that Betfair let some pay 0% com and even offset certain losses?<br>
the darkknight,<br>I normally take a view with horseracing either just back or lay but with something like the current Wimbledon Tennis matches there have been plenty of arb positions and ample chances to trade. On the current Henman match R.Post report there is currently £4.6 million been traded and whilst a lot would be trading in and out if you were clever enough there was a 62% book.
Prine Regent is of course correct.<br>Many favs are just that because of jockey bookings or who trains them. <br>What about some odds on favs in maiden races when they have yet to run? they have no form whatsoever.<br>Any method that just concerns backing favs will fail.<br>Tony Mc Coy said half his horses that start as fav are just because of the Pipe Mc Coy factor.
I also backed High Rise at Lingfield (we ended up at the Pimms tent for the rest of the day) and followed it up at Epsom. Luca Cumani’s horse did get quite a beating from the jockeys whip at Epsom though and would not have won without it but it spolit the day a bit as it is not good to watch. <br>Overall Lester Piggot of course is THE MAIN man but the year when Lamtarra won he was a ‘greeter’ at the V.I.P. tent by the parade ring. <br>A sad sight but anything for a few bob.<br>I have Brian Boru this year @10s on betfair.
Johncockerill,<br>Well done glad you made a profit. <br>Please send my commision in a brown envelope (lol)<br>I keep a record of ALL bets win or lose.<br>Going back from 01-01-2002 until 31-12-2002<br>I had 127 ew doubles mainly at £100.00 e/w <br>from those bets 98 at least got my stake back mainly the 2 both getting placed (77.1%). From the 127 there were however 22 bets where they both won (17.3%). The total profit was £7,200 50. <br>From e/w trebles there were 67 from which 48 (77.1%) at least got all the stake back there were 11 where all won (16.4%) <br>The total profit was £4,873.67.
The system is based on the percentages of FAVS THAT DO NOT win and from a 6 month study I noted these percentages in races of up to 9 runners.<br>the strike rate for the fav wining was 43% but from races where there are more than 9 runners this drops to 23% <br>where the fav was odds on<br> from 294 odds on races ONLY 184 won a 63% strike rate but 37% odds on favs lost. So basically 2-3 odds on favs won and 1-3 lost. These 3rd favs getting placed in 8 -9 runner races are in fact odds on but due to many facts such as many on course bookies only bet win these bets are ignored in the actual place the market is formed i.e. the course. If and when the system is altered to ‘industry prices’ this will end.
I posted this method on the systems pages just after I joined this site.<br>I have not been able to make it work on any exchange and its just something that should be restricted to cash bets.<br>Many may not think it clever nicking the e/w value as it certainly does not need much study (or to join some tipping service) but I do not have any income except what I can make from betting.<br>All that happened in the end last Sunday was that another bookmaker had got fed up paying out and before I could meet my mates up the pub I had to walk to another betting shop.(No drinking and driving)
The darkknight,<br>Bookmakers cannot have it all their way all of the time. <br>I went to Wincanton a while back and a 10 runner race and all went win only no e/w bets. <br>Whilst it may not be the type of bet that interests you I can assure you it is very profitable overall. I do not claim to be clever but surely something that does make a steady profit is something punters should be interested in rather than get involved in some bookmaker sponsored 26 runner handicap. As far as I am concerned the prices on the screen were an offer from the bookmaker to have a bet (dont forget the in built margins were already in place in the bookmakers favour). If know someone who just backs horses with the name Pippa in and there is no doubt he will never have a bet refused its all about making some money in the end and my e/w doubles will never make much inpact on the millions that Coral’s make per year. I do try and have these bets in cash in various shops as it’s not the type of bet to keep having on accounts because overall you will win and accounts do get closed. What does suprise me is how few actually have these bets!
Berminn,<br>the details where<br>8 runner race <br>1st brother joe 8/13<br>2nd just murphy 9/4<br>3rd mr mcduff 14/1<br>25/1 bar the 3 above
2nd race<br>10 runner race<br>buzz buzz 2nd 8/1<br>fav 4/5 3rd<br>100 e/w double though i expected the win part to lose!
rgds
Sleeping Beauty,<br>I have had Coral a/cs closed in the past. I only use that shop now and again as it is near one of my local pubs.
Berminn,<br>I often lay that type of bet to be placed on betfair but cannot double it up
Ian,<br>I unerstand you points about getting banned and while it can be a compliment in a way it is also a pain I have in the past had large bets running up on betfair it just takes time and you need to be on the p/c a few minutes before the race yesterday I wanted to meet some mates down the pub. <br>Looking for a horse such as those two yesterday just to get a place is always overall a good bet there is every chance of a faller in the nat hunt or of a first time out odds on runner racing green exactly what happened yesterday. I know someone who had some of his mortgage granted (by bradford and bingley) on the strength of his betting accounts mainly from e/w/ doubles in 8-10 runner races.<br>The corals shop in question has the people with wap phones winning on the fixed odds machine a lot (another scam) but they still refused what in effect is a decent honest bet. <br>Betfair down at the moment by the way for servicing the computer.<br>
From a punters point of view (and after all that’s what the majority of us are on here for) Saeed Bin Suroor and the horses he trains are better for punters than virtually anyone else. <br>By investing in every runner in this country for each of the last 6 seasons would have shown an overall level stake profitevery season. <br>A £100 on every runner at s.p. after all losers deducted shows an average level stake profit of over £6,000 a season. Last season again an exellent 24% strike rate and again an overall level stake profit. just 88 runners but 21 winners!
With a threat of war hanging over us and the ricin poison being found in London and poor old Les Dennis getting dumped by Amanda Holden and even Cilla Black leaving Blind Date all our Scottish members have to do is just moan about spending money. lol phunter!
I also do P. MAKIN in non 2 year old handicaps on the all weather at Wolverhampton Pixo or daylight can confirm this and another 20/1 winner there last sat night same trainer in 3 year old handicap.
Vic & Ian,<br>Ian I liked your letter in The Racing Post by the way last week. <br>This may seem so stupid or so obvious but I can assure you it works and I have 16 seasons of results to prove it. If you find a trainer that has made an overall profit for each of the last 3 seaons in the same type of race at the same track the chances are overall they will keep on doing this. Nothing new as any any business such as Tesco will build a new store based on past results i.e they know that past results that have made them overall profits how many car park spaces check outs etc etc to have. I have posted here many times if you have had just £100 on every horse trained by Said Bin Surror over the last six seaons you would have been over £16,000 in overall profit at s.p. prices and again this season an overall profit at s.p. prices to level stakes. For the Nat Hunt look at Paul Nicholls. Problem is when a system might be having a bad run people jump ship. Take Ms Linda Perratt she will have many losers at Ayr every season but the last 4 seasons an overall profit (just win only at s.p) there are hundreds of examples I could give .
Bowser,<br>For what its worth I was told ages ago by bookie who works at Wolverhampton that the track there is rolled after every race and the rollers overlap and as a result the middle strip off the last bend is the place that provides the most winners. I have mentioned this in previous postings here and a few months ago a B.Hills odds on fav went off the middle on to the rails and got beat the same horse 2 meetings later in the same type of race come round the bend off the pace stayed exactly on the middle strip and won@5/1 I think it was. Not exactly rocket science. Only works at Wolverhampton though.
Many regard Sir Mark Prescott as a brilliant trainer of handicappers he will often run horses on the a/w as they seem to get a lower handicap mark and then when the horse races on the turf for the first time at a different distance it will win everyone knows this goes on not with just Sir Mark. <br>There is no way of stopping this there is no need for a trainer or an owner to inform all and sundry what the plans are.<br> If betting was banned racing would stop by next week but where people bet there will always be some trying to have an edge no different for those in the know to have placed bets at 33/1 on Howard Wilkinson being the Sunderland manager. The Coates family who own bet 365 and are major shareholders in Stoke city seemed to know and declined to issue prices.(the manager of Stoke left to be the assistant at Sunderland).<br>What about some dodgy snooker bets in the past. Form and stats are for there for all to see and the average punter has never been in a better position than at the moment racing or any sport never be or is 100% straight but its just a part of life. What about the ex jockey club member who had made millions from his business in this country but paid hardly any tax as it was an off sure business and he avoided most of the taxes no one bothers about that they would rather moan about some trainer or owner winning a few grand on a horse they have invested time and money in.
Horseracing in this country is an estimated 6 BILLION pound business.<br> I find it AMAZING that the chairman thought his holiday abroad should not be cut short and he thought it best to keep out of the country whilst this was all kicking off.
Phipps must also consider his position he only managed to come up with an excuse for his comments after he was rescued by his P.R. director John Maxse.<br>The way the B.B.C. collected the information may have been suspect but no more suspect than all the speed cameras and CCTV one sees in every high street in this day and age. Willie Carson and Graham Bradley come out of the programme with no credit whatsoever (nothing new there then). <br>I thought overall the Panorama team did a good job and if changes are made for the better such as the B.H.B. taking more control that should help us all overall.<br>All Jamie Osbourne and Dave Wintle have to do when they appear before the Jockey Club is to claim they were acting in exactly the same way as the head of Jockey Club security did.
Here is my line on all this.<br>Of course it is possible as I for the last 4 seasons have been living solely from betting. I used to drive artics for Tate & Lyle and was made redundant I then bought my own truck and the work was ok and the money good but in the end with the diesel keep going up almost every day (I was spending over £1,200 on average a week on the stuff in the end ) road tax was £5K a tyre cost £400 and I was also limited or supposed to be by the tachograph.<br> I sold the truck and lived since on the money that made . That was my betting bank. I list all bets. I focus mainly on nat hunt racing. I go racing a lot but the edge has gone as many now dont bet each way on the tracks but with the betting tax gone the 9% was quite a burden. I use betfair a bit to back rather than lay which is against what a lot do but it works o.k. I wish I had done it many years ago. I have a very strict policy there are no fun bets or greyhound bets but it can be done. It is not for most people as they have no discipline, chase losses , bet on stuff such a vitual racing etc etc etc<br>we still go and a lot but I do my 8 hours but it just concerns horseracing nowadays.
