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Arb players..

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  • #3966
    Tony25
    Member
    • Total Posts 327

    TDK……..I see your point,however, surely theirs value to be found in 100% books has opposed to best odds books of 115%.

    Whilst prices will certainly level out has the sheep follow each other,one needs to consider market movement isn`t always the best guide,nowdays we are seeing many more drifters and value can surely be found in them!!

    #91675
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    the darkknight,<br>I normally take a view with horseracing either just back or lay but with something like the current Wimbledon Tennis matches there have been plenty of arb positions and ample chances to trade. On the current  Henman match R.Post report there is currently £4.6 million been traded and whilst a lot would be trading in and out if you were clever enough there was a 62% book.

    #91681
    Smithy
    Member
    • Total Posts 720

    It is a difficult call James but I suppose you and I have the same opportunity as the arbers if we want to follow that route – apparently no-one ever went skint taking a profit either.

    Obviously I would be at an advantage over you as you can’t take advantage of Coral’s huge acts of charity!

    #91684
    wilsonl
    Participant
    • Total Posts 862

    I agree with tdk.

    I have recently found myself, rather than trying to study form, simply looking at ante post races with the intention of trying to fathom out the horses that I think will run and those that wont.<br>Then trading accordingly, i.e backing at longer odds and then laying when say the favourite is pulled out.

    While I have had a fair bit of success with this, most profitably with YoulNeverWalkAlone in the national, this isn’t the reason I fell in love with the sport when I was a teenager.

    Can’t see how it will change though.

    Lee

    #91685
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3235

    <br>James,

    I’d always associated the people that run Ladbrokes with having three figure IQ’s.

    They must easily be able to identify the punters that are using this approach, so why don’t they restrict their stakes, just like they do with any other successful punter.

    If an arber is being offered £5 at the price and the rest at SP, his game is ended and Ladbrokes can hold the price and lay it to their regular customers. (I use the term ‘regular customers’ in it’s bookmaking sense, where of course it really means ‘regular losers’)

    AP

    #91688
    Nick Hatton
    Member
    • Total Posts 399

    Great thread

    With regard to the bots I am more than happy to play against them as they can be ‘tricked’ in certain situations. Bots are only programs afterall and just about all programs have bugs. Find the bugs and take advantage is the best way of dealing with the situation IMO.

    By the way although I am a punter at heart I am incredibly selective as I hate losing and am only interested in high p.o.t. bets, therefore I only bet about 2 or 3 times a week on average. I believe that the best way to play the game when backing is to either have ‘no bet’ or a ‘big bet’ with nothing in between. The rest of the time I trade the horseracing markets to keep things ticking over. I agree that trading is boring but I am perfectly happy to be ‘all green’ before a race starts. As CuBoNe says frequently to traders / arbers on the Betfair forum …….. ‘you will never starve’ 🙂

    #91690
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3235

    <br>James,

    No argument here about the extent or rate of change. There are days when I feel very old indeed.

    I was never sure what ‘professional punter’ meant anyway. Perhaps I should stick to the job title on my car insurance – ‘Market Analyst’.

    I just didn’t tell them I meant the betting market rather than the stock market.

    I’m left wondering who’s losing this money the arbers are winning. Given that Betfair are taking their cut as well, there must be a lot more losers on the exchanges than ever appear on Fantasy Island (aka the BF forum)

    Like you, I woud find spending my life stuck in front of a PC pinching a tenth of a point here and a tenth there soul destroying. Then again, maybe I’d view that differently if I had a mortgage, a wife and kids and a couple of credit cards.

    Like the opportunities I founnd with spread betting a few years ago, which are now long gone, I suspect the the funding from losing punters will dry up over time.

    AP

    #91692
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8968

    Paul – you reading the same posts as me because I don’t see apracing stating his opinion as fact – simply having firm opinions which are articulated strongly. I’d be more interested in your opinions on the issues rather than your critique of other people’s failings.

    Good thread this. The ‘market’ is in a state of flux at the moment and while this continues there will continue to be lots of profit-making opportunities around. However, as apracing points out, those ‘holes’ currently being exploited will gradually minimise, as with the spread betting opportunities, and the market will flatten out. Once this happens the hunt for ‘value’  or ‘profit’ will once again be inextricably linked to relentless study of the formbook etc.<br>Meanwhile, make hay while the sun shines.

    #91697
    Nick Hatton
    Member
    • Total Posts 399

    I’m unemployed on my car insurance and proud of it. Afterall I win money, I don’t earn it. 😉

    #91701
    redman
    Member
    • Total Posts 43

    Fantastic thread guys, thanks for kicking it off James.

    I am with James/tdk on this.  That said, I am not sure how to solve the problem or whether ground has shifted (and therefore isn’t solvable).

    Of course its not just exchanges at play here, its also things like betbrain, oddschecker etc. that freely accessable to the punter so he can always take the standout price.

    The thing that I fear is when the age of the arb/trader is ‘over’ – that we will (as more and more punters take advantage of the technology to always get the best price) end up with market failure.

    Bookmakers play an important role (in wagering) because they hold risk (obviously with the intent of winning over the long term, but there would be very few bookmakers that managed to bet round race by race) – as a result they lay the favourites (and other runners) at odds shorter than the believe are the true odds (so as to win in the long run).  

    But, and its not just exchanges, the pressure to offer better and better prices to attract (any) money means that they are operating to finer and finer margins.

    In betting exchanges, the ‘trader’ is just ‘gelded bookmaker’ (or even punter) he has no desire to still be exposed (or to stick with the venacular, to have any open positions) at the jump.  

    It should be noted that is is one reason why exchange ‘in-run’ bets can offer good value (to the punter, or bookmaker, with balls) as the ‘trader’ just wants to close out open positions (rather than have a binary win/lose on the result).

    One last point, mug punters using betfair/exchanges still lose their money because they are price takers – the ‘traders’ are making their cut by being the glue/catelyst in the exchange – and the professional (or displined user) is making money (from backing or laying) – and the exchange is making its commission (perversly not from the winners but the losers) – the bottom line, everyone is after a share of the loser’s losses.

    rouge homme

    (Edited by redman at 1:43 pm on July 4, 2003)

    #91702
    Dungheap
    Member
    • Total Posts 113

    Redman<br>I think you will find that the winner pays the commission, not the loser. The loser loses whatever his risk is.

    #91703
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3235

    <br>Paul,

    Get a sense of humour please – regular customers/regular losers is a gag line.

    Perhaps if I spiced it up with laughing faces and ‘ha-ha’ you’d be able to spot that?

    Just out of interest, if you don’t like me offering my opinions, whose opinions would you prefer me to offer?

    AP<br>

    #91709
    redman
    Member
    • Total Posts 43

    Dungheap

    yes the ‘winner’ on each event pays commission (on their net winnings) but big players pay low, if not negligible, commission rates.  The bearer of most commission payments is, over time, the ‘loser’.

    The is even more obvious when the past (under a turnover environment) is compared to the present.

    Mathematically the whole thing that drives wagering is "losers’ losses".

    rouge homme

    sorry to add an edit in… but

    what seems to be lost on some is that it is one thing for a winner’s winnings to be less (as a result of commissions ‘paid’ out of winnings) –  however the winner is still a winner – the person who has ultimately paid is the long run loser.

    RH

    (Edited by redman at 12:40 am on July 5, 2003)

    #91713
    redman
    Member
    • Total Posts 43

    paulbraidley

    your personal abuse of Ian does you little credit in this thread, as it is, dare I say, a reasonable intellectual debate about a, potentially, seismic shift in wagering.

    play the ball not the man

    rouge homme

    #91720
    Sal
    Member
    • Total Posts 562

    PB – the Post-Race analysis takes place on this forum after a race.  The Pre-Race analysis takes place before a race.  I hope this clears this up for you, but maybe have a look at the Eclipse thread if you’re still struggling with the concept.  BTW, stop acting like a child.

    Re Arbs (though probably not a subject as close to your hearts), something similar happened to the spread betting markets.  Arb punters poaching any discrepancies push spread firms into line, meaning there is less choice and value for a genuine punter with a view.

    However, as the concept equates to buying money I’m afraid I can’t criticise anyone who does this.  If it’s any consolation, most of the serious arb players I know use this ‘safe’ money to sustain their genuine bets in case of a losing run.

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