Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Have received Emails from 3 of you, 6 outstanding
Those who have not emailed me to find out where to send entry fees my email is:
PREDICTION OF GOLD CUP RESULT
1st Long Run 4/1
2nd Imperial Commander 9/2
3rd Denman 13/2
4th Kauto Star 9/2Distances: 8 lengths, 4 lengths, 2 lengths
Betting on 2012 Gold Cup next day
Long Run 5/2
Time For Rupert 11/2
Big Bucks 8/1In response to Beau Ranger.
Long Run is breaking all the stats.
Tell me the last 6 year old chaser rated 179
Tell me the last 6 year old chaser to have won over £800k prize money
Tell me the last 4 year old chaser to win a grade 1 chase
Tell me the last 5 year old chaser to win a King George
Show me the stats that show he is not good enough or strong enoughWell i do think there will be plenty of humble pie to be eaten in this thread when Long Run wins with ease.
Have to disagree with Bosranic who says he aint no Kauto. Long Run having only just turned the age of 6, who would have won the KG at age 5 but for the delay, who has already won more prize money at age 6 (over £800,000) than any other chaser in history and is already rated 179 by the handicapper. How much had Kauto won at 6?
To say he doesn’t act at Cheltenham is tosh, both his efforts there were personal bests in terms of ratings, his first effort at Cheltenham as a five year old was after he had been on the go for over 12 months, the second carrying top weight over too short a distance when the stable was not in form yet he still ran a career best.
As to his jumping, well he hasn’t even fallen and his jumping was a joy to behold last time, whereas Kauto has fallen a few times.
WAKE UP SMELL THE COFFEE, THIS HORSE IS THE REAL DEAL
Please watch a replay of the race below.
The winner jumped brilliantly from fence to fence and was going further clear at the finish, another 2 furlongs and he would have won by a distance.
If this horse gets into any semblance of a rhythm at Cheltenham he wins.
BUMP
Those who have not emailed me to find out where to send entry fees my email is:
Looking at the runners in the CH and their official ratings, it is clear to me that Menorah is far too short in the betting.
He is rated below Oscar Whisky and the same as Khyber Kim. On what he has achieved on the racecourse he should be 10/1This unbeaten tag with Peddlers Cross is keepimg him far shorter than he should be. The handicapper has him rated 9lb below Binocular despite beating him in the fighting fifth. Binocular was clearly not fully wound up in that race evidenced by his trouncing of Starluck at Kempton. Peddlers Cross was trading at 16/1 earlier in the season, he is available at 6/1 in places but I would have him at more like 8/1 which is still far shorter than his achievements merit.
Hurricane Fly at 11/2 is probably a fair reflection of his chance.
Dunguib would need to improve a stone on what he has achieved on the track, it seems to me that punters are still backing him on the memories of his bumper win, he should be 25/1
I can’t fancy Mille Chief at Cheltenham, his best chance of glory would be in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, punters are backing him on the Alan King hype that nothing can work with him on the gallops. He should be 25/1
So based on the merits of performance on the track, I would price the race as follows:
BINOCULAR 6/4
HURRICANE FLY 11/2
OSCAR WHISKY 7/1
MENORAH 8/1
PEDDLERS CROSS 10/1
DUNGUIB 25/1
MILLE CHIEF 25/1
ANYTHING ELSE 50/1Having nailed my colours firmly to the mast of Binocular, the only other bet I may have on this race if the ground is genuine good groung will be each way on Clerks Choice currently trading at 150/1 with Betfair
Day 1 Entries to competition
Those who have not emailed me to find out where to send entry fees my email is:
tippingcompetition@yahoo.co.uk
SEA PIGEON
Champion Hurdle:Hurricane Fly 11/2 nb Binocular 5/1
Arkle Chase::Mikael D’Haguenet 16/1 nb FiniansRainbow10/1
Supreme Nov Hurdle: SprinterSacre 25/1 nb Sam Winner 16/1
D Nicholson Hurdle: L’A ccordioniste 12/1 nb Quevega 5/4FIVELONGDAYS
Champion Hurdle – Hurricane Fly 11/2 res Binocular 5/1
Arkle Chase – Get Me Out Of Here 25/1 res Captain Chris 20/1
Supreme Novices Hurdle – Cue Card 3/1 res Hidden Universe 20/1
David Nicholson Mares Hurdle – Voler La Vedette 5/1 Que Vega 5/4.KAUTO KID
Champion Hurdle – Peddlers Cross 11/2 res – Khyber Kim 16/1
Arkle Chase – Medermit 14/1 res – Ghizao – 12/1
Supreme Novices Hurdl- Cue Card 11/4 Res – Shot From The Hip 20/1
David NicholsonHurdle – Quevega 5/4 res – L’Accordioniste 10/1LIMESTONE LAD
Champion Hurdle: Binocular 5/1 nb Dunguib 20/1
Arkle Chase: Ghizao 12/1 nb Medermit 16/1
Supreme Nov Hurdle: Cue Card 3/1 nb Dunraven Storm 33/1
D Nicholson Hurdle: Voler La Vadette 5/1 nb Caroles Legacy 12/1THEHORSESMOUTH
Champion Hurdle…..Hurricane Fly 11/2 -RES- Dunguib 20/1
Arkle Chase…..Mikael D’Haguenet 16/1 -RES- Medermit 16/1
Supreme Novices Hurdle…..Zaidpour 5/1 -RES- Staying Article 50/1
David Nicholson Hurdle. Voler La Vedette 5/1 -RES- Quevega 1/1ANDREWHILL
Champion Hurdle Binocular 5/1 res Khyber Kim 16/1
Arkle Ghizao 12/1 res Get Me Out of Here 25/1
Supreme Novices Zaidpour 5/1 res Toubab 14/1
Mares Quevega 5/4 res Voler la Vadette 5/1DARREN
Zaidpour to win Supreme 5/1.res is Megastar 16/1
Finians Rainbow to win arkle 10/1.res is Noble Prince 25/1
Hurricane Fly to win Champion hurdle 11/2 res is.Dunguib 20/1
Mares Quevega 5/4.res is Laccordioniste 12/1MILBEAR
Champion Hurdle – Silviniaco Conti 20/1 RES: Menorah 4/1
Arkle Chase – Realt Dubh 25/1 RES – Finians Rainbow 10/1
Supreme Novices Hurdle – Cue Card 5/2 RES – Zaidpour 10/1
David N Hurdle: Our Girl Salley 16/1 RES:l’accordioniste 12/1BROADSWORD
Champion Hurdle: Menorah 9-2, res Peddlers Cross 13-2
Arkle Chase: Ghizao 6-1, res Medermit 16-1
Supreme Novices Hurdle: First Lieutenant 20-1, res Backspin 14-1
David Nicholson Hurdle: Quevega 5-4, res Our Girl Salley 16-1GRIMES
Champion Hurdle – Cue Card 56/1 – Peddlers Cross 11/2
Arkle Chase – Rock Noir 33/1 – Ghizao – 12/1
Supreme Novices Hurdle – Cue Card 11/4 – Zaidpour 8/1
David Nicholson Mares Hurdle – Quevega 5/4 – Our Girl Sally 14/1Best picks of the entries so far:
Grimes is on Grand Crus for the World Hurdle @ 12/1
Kauto Kid is on Medermit for the Arkle @ 14/1
Thehorsesmouth is on Pandorama for the Gold Cup @ 50/1
Andrewhill 343 is on Kempes for the Gold Cup @ 50/1
fivelong days is on A media luz for the Triumph @33/1
milbear0 is on Realt Dubh for the Arkle @ 25/1
darren is on Finians Rainbow for the Arkle @ 10/1
Limestone Lad is on Ghizao for the Arkle @ 12/1Entries from:
Sea Pigeon
Grimes…………..you forgot your Gold Cup selections
milbear0
darren83
Andrewhill343
thehorsesmouth
Limestone Lad
Kauto Kid
Broadsword
fivelongdays£100 to the winner
don’t forgot to Email me @ Tippingcompetition@yahoo.co.uk
For those who have entered the competition, please send an email together with your screen name on the Racing Forum and I will give you my name & address to where you can send your entry cheque.
Please send your email to:
Is Imperial Commander too short at 7/2? He beat Tidal Bay 1.25 lengths at level weights at Haydock, however Neptune Collonges beat Tidal Bay at level weights by the same margin at Cheltenham but he is trading at over 10 times the odds of Imperial Commander.
Following on from Riverside Theatre’s success yesterday, Long Run has hardened in the market and is now as low as 5/1 with some bookies. If he jumps well and gets into a rhythm he wins.
After the typical overreaction to Kauto Stars defeat at Kempton when he was available at 12/1 for the GC. He is now trading at around 7/1, who knows if we get a few bullish reports from Paul Nicholls stable he could be vying for favourite come the big day.
Ww find out today that Denman had a breathing operation shortly after the Henessy, how come Paul Nicholls waits 3 months before telling?, I’m sure ante post punters on Denman would have liked to know about this asap.
Meanwhile Diamond Harry is to be unleashed as fresh as paint, if he is in the same form as last time then he will obviously be travelling well in the race, he looks an excellent back to lay prospect.
A few on here are raving about Kempes, he looked good but the form is way short of GC class.
Midnight Chase, game that he is has no chance.
Pandorama ain’t gonna get his ground.
I can see only three possible winners of the Gold Cup.
Long Run: This horse has already won the best part of £1 Million in prize money and he has only just turned 6. Had the King George not been delayed by a few weeks he would have been the first 5 year old winner in 60 years. He also won a grade 1 chase in the UK as four year old, I cannot remember any other in my lifetime. This horse is the real deal, he has a similar engine to Big Bucks but jumps better, when was the last time a 12 length King George winner quoted at 7/1 for the Gold Cup?
Diamond Harry: When fresh this horse is awesome, his style of win in the Hennessy was very similar to his demolition of Burton Port at Haydock. His astute trainer has finally realised that fresh is best.
Imperial Commander. The reigning champ, simply loves it at Cheltenham, another who runs best fresh. Should still be capable of running to the same level of form as last year judged on his Haydock performance. He is a 10 year old so further improvement is unlikely.
Of the rest Pandorama needs a bog to have any chance.
Kauto and Denman – been there done it before but 11 year olds win once in a blue moon and only if the opposition is not top drawer.
Joncol: His Gold Cup is on Saturday, a massive horse run sparingly his best chance of making the frame will be next year.
Michael Dickinson was asked "If you you train any one horse for Cheltenham" Binocular in the Champion Hurdle – he is the quickest horse I have seen over a hurdle in a long time. In 35 odd years of following jump racing I have to agree with him, I have never seen another horse. that gets across his hurdles as quickly as Binocular.
It would not surprise me if JP McManus is planning to have a monster bet on Binocular and had a quiet word in Nicky ear to go easy on the horses work (reflected in the last performance) to enable him to get a bigger price.
7/2 is a ridiculous price, should be a 6/4 chance. Won’t be a 7/2 shot on the day though, more like 9/4.
In recent years Cheltenham has dried out as the week progressed and if recent years are anything to go by the ground for the World Hurdle will either be good to soft or good and Grand Crus would appear to need soft ground to show his best.
Big Bucks is unbeaten in 10 races over hurdles and in 3 mile plus chases where he has not fell, on all types of ground, he rarely wins by far but is always going away at the finish. He would probably only win a seller by 3 lengths given his style of racing.
He has the best engine I have ever seen (with the possible exception of Long Run). Paul Nicholls with all his talented horses is on record as saying he is the best we have on the gallops.
In a true run race he would warrant a sizeable bet if he is anywhere near even money.
Looking at historical trends in the race the horse that ticks most boxes is Binocular.
Of the last 43 runnings, 21 were won by horses who were or became multiple winners of the race. Over the same period around 2/3 of all winners were aged 6 or 7, and 41 champion hurdles were won by horses who had Cheltenham experience with only the group class flat horses Royal Gait and Alderbrook bucking the trend.
Over half the winners went off as favourite although we haven’t had a winning favourite since Brave Inca 5 years ago.On official ratings the top rated wins about 40% of the time, Binocular goes into the race rated 5 pounds clear of the field.
Jumping is the name of the game and one of the best jumpers I can remember is Night Nurse who was rated some 2 stone inferior to his stablemate Sea Pigeon on flat ratings yet beat him in the Champion Hurdle. Istabraq would be the third best jumper I can remember but Binocular is tops in this department for me.
So when you have the best jumper of a hurdle in 35 years, who is top rated on form, who is the favourite, who has already won the race before, has the champion jockey on board and who’s trainer has won the race 5 times before then you have to ask yourself why are the bookies offering 100/30 about a 6/4 chance?
Of all the Champion Hurdle contenders Binocular is in my view the best jumper, he will be tuned to the minute by a trainer who has won it 5 times and a jockey who has won it 3 times. At 7/2 he is a very generous price.
Hurricane Fly has never run at Cheltenham and it would not surprise me if he were to miss the race yet again. Beating Solwhit a couple of times in slowly run races is hardly the ideal preparation for the hustle and bustle of Cheltenham.
Menorah is a ridiculously short price given he only beat a couple of novices in a slowly run race.
Peddlars Cross is a serious rival.
Mille Chief is an unknown quantity but appears to be rapidly improving and the stable is very bullish with Alan King saying they have nothing in the stable fast enough to work with it and they rate him higher than Katchitt.
Khyber Kim does not look good enough and has it all to do to reverse the form with Binocular.
Dunguib has the engine but does not jump like a champion.
Oscar Whisky looks an improver and the Henderson second string has won this race before with Punjabi.
Starluck would be my fancy if the Champion Hurdle was over a mile and a half at Chester.
I could see Clerks Choice running into a place at a massive price if the ground is on the fast side.
I have Binocular @ 4/1 in doubles with Masterminded @ 4/1 in Champion Chase, Long Run (already won at 6/1 in KG), Long Run @ 16/1 for Gold Cup and Time for Rupert (missed the boat @ 3/1) to win around £9,000
Think I will save on Peddlars Cross and Mille Chief
