Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Having watched Long Run win the King George, I had no hesitation in ploughing half my winnings on him at 7/1 for the Gold Cup. On yesterdays showing he will have every chance of emulation Desert Orchid and Kauto Star in winning 4 King Georges since he will be going for the double at age 6 the treble at 7 and the fourtimer at age 8.
To me he is the most talented performer I have seen for a long time and certainly has the biggest engine of all the Gold Cup contenders.
I can only see 2 dangers to Long Run in the Gold Cup, Imperial Commander and Diamond Harry.
Speaking through my pocket this is my favourite race at the festival.
I have Big Bucks in umpteen multiple bets but for the value I like Zaynar in the without Big Bucks market.
I’m convinced that we have have yet to see the best of this horse, he looked awsome in his first two runs last season and the stable are quite bullish about his chances.
I hope for the good of racing that Kauto wins. If you could race horses of different generations I would back Kauto to beat anything over 3 miles round Kempton including Arkle.
For me though there can only be one bet and that is Long Run in the without Kauto market.
I have asked for a volunteer to hold onto the cheques.
If no one has volunteered in the next week I will post my name address and telephone number on this thread and you can post them to me for safe keeping.Gold Cup: Long Run 25/1 nb Imp Commander 9/2
Champion Hurdle:Hurricane Fly 11/2 nb Binocular 5/1
Champion Chase: Master Minded 7/4nb Wooolcombe Folly 10/1
World Hurdle: Zaynar 16/1 nb Big Bucks 4/5
Arkle Chase::Mikael D’Haguenet 16/1 nb FiniansRainbow10/1
RSA Chase:Fiveforthree 16/1 nb Time for Rupert 4/1
Triumph Hurdle:A Media Luz 33/1 nb Smad Place 10/1
Supreme Nov Hurdle: SprinterSacre 25/1 nb Sam Winner 16/1
Ryanair Chase:Poquelin 6/1 nb Albertas Run 10/1
D Nicholson Hurdle: L’A ccordioniste 12/1 nb Quevega 5/4Ok guys
Looks like we have enough interest already.
I will be happy to run the competition and give the leaderboard at the end of each day at the festival.
Can we have all entries posted directly on this thread by 31st December 2010, I will put them all on a spreadsheet as they come in and them summarise all entries on 1st January.
The £10 stake will need to be a cheque with no payee on it dated 18th March 2011 or cash. At the close of the festival each cheque will have the winners name entered on them and posted to his home address plus any cash.
To keeps things all fair I need a volunteer to hold onto the cheques/cash in the meantime and write in the winners name and post them on. The volunteer needs to give his real name and address to all entrants.If you can excuse Clerk’s Choice poor run at Haydock on sticky ground then he represents the value in the race at 12/1.
His form at Cheltenham compares favourably with Cue Card and Menorah with his winning time some 7 seconds faster than Cue Card (albeit carrying 9 pounds less)on the same ground and 13 seconds faster than Menorah (carrying 1 stone less than Menorah) good/soft
On official ratings he is within 2 or 3 pounds of anything else in the field.
No chamce wahtsoever? You got to be kidding?
On what assumption do you base "He doesn’t like the track on?
The evidence backing that up wouldn’t stand up even in a kangaroo court.
Makes me think of Sheep everytiime I read this crap abut the horse.
He was all wrong on his first run there nothing to do with not being fresh or not liking the place. Nigel’s would have been better off working on Blackpool beach the way they were running during Decemeber of that year and last year he walked through the secone fence and Paddy Brennan being a very sensible jockey nursed him round.
It BS he hates the track he’s never had a proper opertunity to show he can handle it.
If he can operate round Cheltenham and haydock damn sure he’ll be ok round Kempton.
As I was saying about trainers and sensible decisions, the market told us that despite being clearly the best horse on ratings he wasn’t going to win at Aintree as he had a hard race at Cheltenham with an insufficient time to recover. Then you have Twiston Davies running the horse when the stable is clearly out of form………you said it yourself he would be better running at Blackpool beach….the trainer makes bad decisions. IC is available at 8/1 and if you really think that the horse has a good chance then you can get 5/2 for a place on Betfair.
It amazes me why trainers are unable to make sensible decisions.
I think that Imperial Commander has no chance whatsoever at Kempton, he doesn’t like the track and will have bad vibes from his last two visits, he doesn’t like going right handed and he needs a longer break between races.
His biggest obstacle is Kauto Star who incredibly is still available at odds against when he loves Kempton, has won the last 4 runnings easily by at least 8 lengths without ever being headed after taking up the running.
There is only one horse with any chance of ruffling Kauto and that is Long Run if he puts in a good round of jumping.
I still think Imperial Commander will be one of the top 3 in the Gold Cup and if you fancy him for that then wait until he has dissapointed once more at Kempton and get the bigger odds.Hennessy Weights if Kauto Star runs assuming horses run on official handicap mark
Kauto Star 11-12 best odds 8/1
Denman 11-04 11/2
Neptune Collonges 10-00 14/1
Taranis 9-10 14/1
What a Friend 9-09 6/1
Madison Du Berlais 9-07 20/1
Silver by Nature 9-06 25/1
Carruthers 9-05 20/1
The Tother One 9-05 25/1
Weird Al 9-02 8/1
Diamond Harry 9-02 8/1
Burton Port 9-02 10/1
Tricky Trickster 8-13 25/1
Pandorama 8-12 10/1
Niche Market 8-12 33/1
The Package 8-11 33/1
Massini’s Maguire 8-10 25/1
Hey Big Spender 8-10 25/1
Great Endeavour 8-06 20/1Hennessy Weights if Kauto doesn’t run
Denman 11-12
Neptune Collonges 10-08
Taranis 10-04
What a Friend 10-03
Madison Du Berlais 10-01
Silver by Nature 10-00
Carruthers 9-13
The Tother One 9-13
Weird Al 9-10
Diamond Harry 9-10
Burton Port 9-10
Tricky Trickster 9-07
Pandorama 9-06
Niche Market 9-06
The Package 9-05
Massini’s Maguire 9-04
Hey Big Spender 9-04
Great Endeavour 9-00Masterminded is the best 2 miler I have seen in the past 35 years, write him off at your peril.
He is still a young horse and will only be 8 come Cheltenham and may still have room for normal improvement with age and additional improvement following his breathing operation.
Paul Nicholls thinks he may be similar to Kauto Star in needing a good break to show his best which he will now get.
He also appears to need cut in the ground as he has been well beaten on the 2 occasions he has encountered good ground.
He is likely to start favourite for the Tingle Creek if there is cut in the ground, I can envisage him tanking around junping for fun, winning on the bridle and becoming the hot favourite for Cheltenham.
In my view the best time to back Imperial Commander is after it has run in the King George. I expect it to run below form as usual then show his true form at Cheltenham. Last year his price drifted out to 12/1 or thereabouts after the KG.
Gloria Victis who i’m convinced would have turned on the afterburners to win the 2000 Gold Cup but sadly had a fatal fall and we were robbed of a future star.
Speaking purely through the pocket when Sir Rembrandt won the rehearsal chase in 2003 I was deeply impressed and backed him for the 2004 Gold Cup. He was declared a non runner by the trainer a few weeks before the Gold Cup and was trading at 800/1 on Betfair. I thought what the hell and had £20 on. I ending up listening to the race on my car radio as I could not get the day off and listening to the commentary I thought he was going to get up and win it.
The manner and margin of Dream Ahead’s win was the best 2YO performance i’ve seen since Celtic Swing. At odds of 7/2 i will just have to have a bet regardless of the hype on Frankel.
If Long Run gets in on his official handicap then barring a fall or serious jumping error I cannot see anything to get near him. I will be surprised if he does not end the season rated in the mid 170’s.
I know some on here will say they will not back him because of the jockey, but having his lordship on will mean he trades at a higher price. If Barry Geraghty was on he would be around 5/2.History has a habit of repeating itself.
When Desert Orchid’s reign at Kempton came to an end after 4 wins it was the 6 year old french horse The Fellow who won. Who is waiting in the wings now?
However for that to happen Kauto needs to be beaten.
He will still be only 10 years old and has shown no signs of deteriorating and if Wayward Lad aged 10 and Desert Orchid plus Edredon Bleu can win aged 11 then there is every reason to believe that Kauto can win yet again. People have very short memories in racing, last year the nearest any horse could get to him was beaten a distance so grab some of the 9/4 and have a saver on Long Run.Masterminded now down to 5/1 looks to be the value.
I can see him having 2 or 3 races prior to Cheltenham.
I think Paul Nicholls will start him off with a soft race to rebuild his confidence, followed by the Tingle Creek. The opposition in the Tingle Creek is likely to include Big Zeb and given some cut in the ground I can see Masterminded winning easily with his Cheltenham price likely to be 5/2 or less. After Cheltenham maybe the Victor Chandler then a good break before Cheltenham.
