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Potentially this is the best Champion Hurdle since?…maybe the best ever who knows.
I’m a huge Binocular fan as you all know and he may well win again but make no mistake he could finish 4th and still have ran a cracker.
His style of running is now set in stone after they folowed my instructions to the letter last season
There can be little doubt Binocular will go early and try and use his speed to slip the field because if he sits and waits he’s going to get done for toe unless he is simply differnet class.
Doesn’t take a genius to work out Peddlar’s Cross will be going early as well and more than likely before Binocular makes his move.
On a line through Starluck, Peddlars Cross
has 4 lengths or more to find with Binocular but that could be very misleading. The minute Overturn set off in front Starluck was guaranteed not to get the trip as he simmply doesn’t get 2 miles in top class company when the pace is strong.Anyway Pedllar’s Croos is in a differnet league to Overturn so the big question will be can he peg him back if he gets first run onhim at Cheltenham.
Even if he can how much is going to take out of him? Then of course you have Hurricane Fly and Mehorah to worry about.
The more I think about Menorah the more I like the horse and he could win this race but a couple of things put me off.
When he beat Cue Card he was actually the first horse to come under pressure (2 out) and that’s the wrong time to be doing that if you want to win a Champion Hurdle. He was also underpressure at the same time in the Supreme and while he did get going and won both races he wasn’t chasiing Binocular or Pedllar’s Cross.
Once he did pick up in his last race he seemed to take off like a rocket but that’s was without doubt a bit of an optical illusion. A combination of him quickening and Cue Card stopping probabaly made him look a lot faster then he actually is.
I would imagine he was 110% that day hence Phillip Hobbs has decided to let him down and bring him back for the Champion Hurdle. The big plus is he will probably come back an even stronger horse but he will have to be. These were virtual novices he beat and this is a world of a differnce. Wouldn’t for one minute try and put anyone off as he’s improved 7lbs already and could easily improve again and beat the lot of them. Lovely horse and scares the life out of me.
A more obvious danger has got to be Hurricane Fly. Unlike Menorah he doesn’t know what a flat spot is. He certainly scares the life out of AP who said his last peformance was awesome and he looked like he could have picked them up at anytime he liked.
Up to now in the races he’s won nothing seems to be able to go fast enough to take him off the bridle during the race. Admitedly he’s never gone at Champion Hurdle pace but he’s never looked like it would bother him if he did.
If I had a worry it would be settling him and I’d worry even more if Ruby wasn’t riding.For me it’s all down to whether Pedddlar’s Cross and Binocular’s kick can carry them far enough in front of Hurricane Fly that he needs to use all his speed to get to them and it becomes a slog to the line.
I doubt if they can but if they did I would fancy Peddlar’s Cross as Binocular weakness is he just cant quicken again.
In a head to head I’d fancy Binocular against any of them but this is the Champion Hurdle and the way the race will pan out, either Binocular will prove way too good for them or he’ll be exauhsted, fold and be overhaled by Menorah late on and end up finsihing 4th.
Still chear him home if he wins though.
If there is to be a shock it could come from Dunguib. Not convinced we saw the real Dunguib in his two defeats at 20/1 he could be a great ew bet. Never saw any horse travel better in a hurdle race than he can and that’s a massive plus in a Champion Hurdle.
but as things stand I see it. 1. Hurricane Fly 2. Peddlars Cross. 3 Menorah 4. Binocular
Agree regarding Dunguib – i personally doubt either of his last two performances are as good as he is.
Some excellent analysis above.
Binocular is clearly the best of last years lot but on the one occassion he has dipped his toe with new boys he was beaten at Newbury. His profile is hard to fathom, he is not a spring horse per se and he is not always spot on for the festival either but he is very talented when right.
Peddlers Cross reminds me of Istabraq in many ways (except one which i will return to). He looked like a stayer in the Neptune but his 2 mile runs are much, much more impressive..he is a very fluent hurdler, as good as Binocular (and that is saying something) and he runs gun barrel straight at two miles which is a sign I love to see. I watched Istabraq’s Sun Alliance Hurdle win and Peddlers Cross Neptune on Youtube last night back to back and was struck by their similarity. Victory at 21f initially disguised how good Isti’ was at 16f and i feel the same could be true for Peddlers.
I like Menorah very much but I dont think his jumping quite matches those above and this will be a race decided by fractions surely.
You cannot fault Hurricane Fly but his test will come when he travels to England, population theorists will have a field day with his cross over. Can anyone supply the stats for Montjeu’s at Cheltenham…I thought I read no Montjeu has ever won there. A small sample no doubt and he is the best jumping Montjeu but it is a stat I would like to have confirmed. Anyone?
You can forget the rest…even the taking arrivistes of Oscar Whisky and Mille Chief. Dunguib in this company is not a good enough jumper no matter the engine.I just favour Peddlers Cross and I am struck with his Istabraq similarities…jumping, unbeaten for long time, runs very straight, won the Neptune but better at 2 miles. Although there are two downsides to this (admittedly ambitious) comparison. Firstly the fact that Peddlers started off in a P2P is niggling away at the back of my mind as a negative compared to Istabraq’s flat profile and secondly Istabraq enjoyed a relatively modest level of competition (excepting Moscow in Ireland) compared to the stellar cast that Peddlers faces.
Peddlers Cross for me then at this stage…shaping like a beauty.I am quite sure that there has never been a progeny by Montjeu, who has gone on to win at the Cheltenham festival. Im quite sure Blue Bajan and Won In The Dark, are sired by Montjeu, and i believe both have run there, but obviously, not top class animals, like Hurricane Fly.
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It’s ok lads Wiillie Mullins told Hurricane Fly that Ruby is his Daddy he doen’t know he’s a Montjeu
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Overturn has run a blinder against a race-fit rival, giving the impression that Binocular has got it all to do just to beat Peddlers Cross, let alone Hurricane Fly, Menorah and perhaps even Oscar Whisky.
He’s a massive lay for the Champion Hurdle.
I woudn’t read too much into either of Binocular’s runs, he’s nbeing trained for one race and one race only so drawing literal formlines on his races this term is pointless IMO. If he runs the same race at Cheltenham this year as last (and there is no reason to suppose he won’t really) then he will be very much the one to beat.
Menorah is the one I like against him.
Agree that Dunguib could be the dark horse. Given poor ride at last year’s festival – could very much still be top class.
Overturn has run a blinder against a race-fit rival, giving the impression that Binocular has got it all to do just to beat Peddlers Cross, let alone Hurricane Fly, Menorah and perhaps even Oscar Whisky.
He’s a massive lay for the Champion Hurdle.
"A Massive Lay eh" AJ? So you would be more than happy to offer 4/1 to all takers then?
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Peddlers Cross has to grind out a win against Starluck, Binocular turns him inside out (over a course that suited Starluck better) yet Binny is a massive lay?
Not in my book.AJ, why is it every time you need to stand up and be counted you shy away? If you are going to make big statements like "Massive Lay"! Come out fighting.Either that or say nothing.Its no good casting your rod at the Big fish when you only have a maggot on the end of it!
Of all the Champion Hurdle contenders Binocular is in my view the best jumper, he will be tuned to the minute by a trainer who has won it 5 times and a jockey who has won it 3 times. At 7/2 he is a very generous price.
Hurricane Fly has never run at Cheltenham and it would not surprise me if he were to miss the race yet again. Beating Solwhit a couple of times in slowly run races is hardly the ideal preparation for the hustle and bustle of Cheltenham.
Menorah is a ridiculously short price given he only beat a couple of novices in a slowly run race.
Peddlars Cross is a serious rival.
Mille Chief is an unknown quantity but appears to be rapidly improving and the stable is very bullish with Alan King saying they have nothing in the stable fast enough to work with it and they rate him higher than Katchitt.
Khyber Kim does not look good enough and has it all to do to reverse the form with Binocular.
Dunguib has the engine but does not jump like a champion.
Oscar Whisky looks an improver and the Henderson second string has won this race before with Punjabi.
Starluck would be my fancy if the Champion Hurdle was over a mile and a half at Chester.
I could see Clerks Choice running into a place at a massive price if the ground is on the fast side.
I have Binocular @ 4/1 in doubles with Masterminded @ 4/1 in Champion Chase, Long Run (already won at 6/1 in KG), Long Run @ 16/1 for Gold Cup and Time for Rupert (missed the boat @ 3/1) to win around £9,000
Think I will save on Peddlars Cross and Mille Chief
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Although he’s clearly a high class horse, I wouldn’t have Peddlers Cross on my mind for the Champion Hurdle.
AJ seems convinced that Binocular ran close to form behind him in the Fighting Fifth, yet both the way he ran Saturday, and how he performed in the FF last year, clearly indicates he was nowhere near it. Take him out of the FF and Peddlers Cross has been hard pressed to beat a relatively modest Starluck, whose stamina for the job was suspect anyway.
Add to that that Peddlers Cross almost certainly needs further – it wasn’t a change of gear that enabled him to win the FF, nor indeed the Neptune – and his 2m form becomes more hype than substance.
Comparisons with Hardy Eustace or Istabraq won’t wash either, as the former showed more speed to win his RSA easier, and the latter held on, over a trip beyond his optimum.
If there is a horse that’s underpriced on his 2m form, then I’m convinced it’s Peddlers Cross, and not Binocular.Interesting points from everyone i feel.
Reet Hard – i’d probably argue your point that Peddlers Cross was "hard pressed" to beat Starluck.
As i previously touched on, his style is perhaps not to travel as ‘flashily’ (for want of a better expression) than Binocular for example, but i firmly believe there was plenty more in the tank if a genuine challenge came at Newcastle.
I don’t think he’ll ever be a "ratings horse" who will canter all over a Grade 1 field and win by 10 lengths, but he may well prove to be difficult to pass.
I’m almost salivating at the thought of the race, and i’m desperate for them all to get there 100%, the principle four (Binocular, Peddlers, Menorah, Fly) especially. I’d have to back in the race just for an interest, but its difficult to firmly side with one currently.
Now I like Binocular and have given him some big ratings in the past but some of his most vociferous supporters indulge in groupthink of significant proportions.
Firstly they seem to think that Binocular is never fit for his pre Cheltenham races but that all the horses he meets in those heats are trained to the minute by their short sighted trainers…allowing form book students to mark Binocular up with regards to his Cheltenham chances from fully exposed rivals. God forbid that it might occur to Donald McCain or anyone else to train their horse with the Festival in mind.
Secondly, that Binocular will always be spot on for the Festival…this just isn’t borne out by the form book…fairly and squarely beaten as a novice, a below par effort in 2009 and some (never fully divulged) shamen-like spiritual and physical overhaul required to parachute him in last season for a fine and worthy victory. Rather than blindly saying that ‘Nicky will have him spot on’ I would be crossing everything given his previous profile. NH clearly has to work very hard with the old bugger.
Binocular has a fine chance in the CH in what looks at this distance to be a deep and talented field, his jumping in particular is a big asset but I would suggest he will have to do a fair bit better than Kempton.- Total Posts 17716
Shabby
Don’t doubt that Peddlers Cross will find some improvement – my query is his suitability for 2m, rather than his class.
It would be foolish, however, to ignore the 12l Binocular found on Starluck between their 1st and 2nd outings; particularly given that Kempton was more in the latter’s favour.- Total Posts 17716
While I agree Kempton would suit Starluck better than most courses what I must have said a dozen times on this forum over the last coupel of years proved to be bang on, on Saturday.
Starluck doesn’t get 2 miles in top class company. Not when you get a top nothcher like Overturn setting the pace. It takes so little to upset horses like him 1/2 pace faster and he can easily run a stone below what he’s capable of when there’s a less testing gallop.
It would be folly to try and compare Peddlar’s Cross and Binocular through Starluck.
So far Peddlar’s Cross is unbeaten so he’s hard to knock and I wouldn’t dream of saying he’s got no chance based on Starluck/Binocular
We have 4 horses who all possess a turn of foot, Dunguib, Binocular, Menorah and Hurricane Fly and the only horse I can think that can take the sting out of their tail’s,if he goes early enough, is Peddlar’s Cross. He’s proved how tough he is, he stays reaaly well and he can quicken from the front, which is going to make him very hard to get past.
According to AP Binocular blew up at the last at Newcastle but it doesn’t alter the fact Pedddlar’s Cross quickened showing he’s just as effective at 2 miles and he is at 2m4f. Horse has got the lot and scares me if no one else.
Not my choice but he must have a huge chance at Cheltenham
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Fist
Peddlers Cross didn’t "quicken from the front" in the Fighting Fifth, indeed he had to have 4 or 5 hefty smacks to maintain his position. Starluck was travelling all over him until he ran out of gas near the line. The same Starluck that was beaten before the straight at Kempton, and off a not dissimilar pace.
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