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Master of the Hall from Henderson’s looks a good type for fences. I was going to have an ante-post dabble for the RSA chase but this new 2 1/2 mile novice at the festival is a potential spanner in the works. I imagine it will scupper a few ante-post bets as trainers hold off on deciding which race to target.
It’s a real shame to see that Charles Egerton doesn’t have the quality of horse that he used to have. He clearly showed in the past that he was more than capable of training a good horse and winning at the big meetings.
He used to train for Elite Racing Club, from stars like Mysilv to old faithfuls like Paradise Navy and I remember he was one of the trainers who would give genuinely interesting reports rather than the standard “working nicely” vague tosh that a lot of trainers offer up. One horse in particular stands out from that period and that was Seixo Branco back in the late 90s or early 2000s. He was a hurdler who, if memory serves, won or at least ran well in 2 starts as a novice before a setback ended his season early. I’m sure he won at least one because he wasn’t eligible for novice company the following season.
Anyway, after a fairly long layoff he re-appeared in a minor handicap hurdle at one of the gaff tracks, maybe Southwell (?) and Charles clearly felt he had been let in lightly by the handicapper and recommended a maximum bet – something almost unheard of in Elite where gambling is not the main purpose. I plucked up the courage to place the biggest bet of my life to that point on Seixo Branco and I remember being on jelly legs as the race unfolded but it was never in question as Norman Williamson was still taking a pull going to the 2nd last and hacked up at fairly generous odds.
I don’t really know why he’s not used by more owners these days – good trainer in my book
Absoloms(spelling?) Lady was a pretty useful grey mare back in the 90s – she used to run in the Cool Ground colours if I recall correctly.
The only hill sited anywhere near Musselburgh racecourse was on the golf course in the middle, the 2-tier green on the 2nd hole after Mrs Formans !
Scottish Jamie
The RSA past is littered with "great" novices that didn’t jump well enough….Nick Dundee springs immediately to mind but he was just one of many
CS,
Yes, I agree but that’s not your point as I understand it. Any horse can fall in any race – that’s the nature of NH racing. You suggest that Long Run is not a genuine contender and should "keep out the way" as if he is a 200/1 shot with no realistic hope of getting involved. Should Nick Dundee not have run in the RSA even though most people think he was about to win the race when he fell ? Was Moscow Flyer not a good chaser because every now and then he blundered away his chances ?
I think you have to have a bit more respect for the engine that Long Run has even if you doubt his jumping ability. Let’s suppose he get’s round with no more than the odd minor error – where do you see him finishing in either the Arkle or the RSA ?
He’ll get his comupance, I hope he does ride Long Run in The RSA, he’ll be on his [expletive] in no time at all, I just hope he keeps out of the way of the genuine contenders.
Both these horses are very over hyped their PR machine is working overtime, whatever they paid for Stravinsy Dance was too much considering his debut and Long Run might make a decent chaser one day but not this year and only if they don’t go down the route taken by last year’s hype horse, Cappa Bleu, over try the animal and nearly wreck what they’d got, which was not a lot really, if he’d stuck to Hunter Chasing he could probably done the Weatherbys double this year ….in the absence of An Siorrac, of course.
Sorry drifted slightly off message
CS,
I think you’ll find that Long Run has won a grade 1 novice chase by half the track, pulling a cart while trying to take several fences home with him. If that doesn’t make him a "genuine contender" in the Cheltenham novices or a "decent chaser" right now then you have seriously high standards !
Did you see Tazbar the other day ? Looked good didn’t he – that was the horse that Long Run steamrollered on boxing day ! Surely that Feltham form is more than decent already ? Fair enough he might tip up at Cheltenham but if he jumps a clear he’s bound to be bang in contention in any of the novice races. Definitely a genuine contender.
I’m looking at Go Native and Khyber Kim for this. Solwhit lacks the Festival experience that 13 of the last 15 winners all had. Only Alderbrook and Make A Stand were lacking in that department. Solwhit strikes me as a Mac’s Joy type horse who dominates over in Ireland but isn’t quite good enough over here. Ironically Mac’s Joy posted exactly the same form figures as Solwhit’s done this season (1311) and won the same 2 Grade 1s that Solwhit’s won on his last 2 starts, but Mac’s Joy lacked Cheltenham experience and finished 5th.
Solwhit may have the same form figures and run in the same races but, for me, the similarities end there. Macs Joy was a fast horse for a hurdler, more of a cruiser and quickener than a grinder like Brave Inca. He was always in with a chance of outpacing his rivals off a slow pace or on a speed track but these types are always vulnerable at Cheltenham given the usual fast pace and the stiff finish.
Solwhit finds plenty off the bridle and although I daresay he won’t be last off the bridle in the CH he is a certainty to be flying up the hill. He was a convincing winner at Aintree last season so he’s not just dominated in Ireland – he’s travelled over the water and won.
I’m sticking with the 2 "finishers" in the race. Solwhit and Zaynar – if one of them doesn’t win then I’ll be distressed !
There was another Mercer owned horse who was a big noise going into the festival one year. He was called Banjo and was one of these precocious French chasers. He ran in the Sun Alliance Chase of his year in a much hyped clash with the big Irish novice of the time – Harcon. Both got thumped by a mare called Brief Gale in Philip Hide’s finest hour – happy days !
Some harsh calls on this thread. If classic winners and multiple grade 1 winners are deemed as never making it to top class then what actually is top class ??
I remember thinking Europa looked an absolute machine in his bumpers but although he had a reasonable enough career as a decent handicapper he never quite reached the heights that I hoped for.
I saw Nicky Henderson being interviewed after one of his winners at Southwell yesterday and he was still talking quite strongly about at least trying Long Run over 2 miles in advance of Cheltenham. I’d say it’s now pretty clear, if they can get a 2m race into Long Run in the next few weeks and he proves effective at the trip then he’ll run in the Arkle. If not, then they’ll stick with what they know (that he is very effective over 3m) and run him in the RSA.
Does anyone know the current wellbeing of Michel Le Bon ? He’s a big price on Betfair but does that indicate a leg has fallen off or just that I’m the only person who identified him as a potential RSA candidate ?
Similarly Pride Of Dulcote is a stupidly big price. I know he had a setback after winning at Worcester but the reports were that he would be back on track during the festive season – he never appeared. Has he had another problem ?
Hey Grassy, hows it going ? I’ve been catching up on some of these Cheltenham threads and I did think you had the better of the side bets with TAPK. Spend your winnings wisely !
You might well be right about Punchestowns – he does look a class apart on hurdle form but for some reason I have a doubt about him, just a hunch that this is not the race for him but if he bolts in then it won’t be a surprise.
I certainly do, doesn’t everyone these days ? As for future winners, well the two races that have become very clear to me are the Champion Hurdle and the Arkle. The CH lies between Zaynar and Solwhit and the Arkle will be won by either Somersby or Capt CeeBee although NJ Henderson is throwing a spanner in the works if he enters Long Run as that looked a fair machine at Kempton.
As we’re on the RSA thread I think Knockara Beau is a decent shout for that race – if he was trained by a big name he’d be much shorter. I have a slight concern about his jockey too but, to be fair, he hasn’t done much wrong on him thus far. The RSA chase will boil down to whether Punchestowns can run to his hurdle mark over fences – if he does he’ll most probably win but I remain to be fully convinced. Life is just not that simple that a 170+ hurdler automatically equals a 170+ chaser.
[quote="The Ante-Post King
Imperial,your horse reminds me an awful lot of a previous RSA winner in the last 10yrs, which one? Clocks ticking!I see Pandorama as being similar to a couple of the less celebrated RSA winners namely Hussard Collonges trained by Peter Beaumont and Rule Supreme trained by Willie Mullins. Both of those were strong stayers at the trip without having the class to be future King George or Gold Cup types. Pandorama could well be up to the task if it proves to be an ordinary year and/or it turns into a slog but I see him more as the next Notre Pere – the Welsh National will be right up Pandorama’s street in 50 weeks time !
