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The Wicker Man situated between M5 and GWR Mainline in Somerset is a handsome fella
Anyone know what he’s made of?
Weirdly enough, that’s the same conversation I was having in the office today. He’s officially the Willow Man
http://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgur … %26hl%3Den
V. glad Mark Wallinger’s submission was chosen – not only is it nice to see horses get so much press, but the other designs were bloody awful!
Edit: oops, sorry for bending the thread shape.
Unless you are happy to pay, it will be hard to get a complete and international picture for every dam – information gathering costs money.
The best databases are the official ones – Weatherbys, US Jockey Club, France Galop and the Direktorium.
However, if you know an animal has gone through one of the major sales, you will be able to access a copy of its pedigree on the sales company websites, which may give you a fuller picture than just the RP and Pedigree Query.
Sounds very much like he’s got his default setting switched to ‘flight’ mode – he’s been badly scared in the past and had to run, so now even the slightest thing sets him running.
Building up trust – preferably one-on-one – and setting a strong and reassuring routine will help with daily care. I’d get an experienced re-trainer to help with the riding side of things, as that is when he sounds as if he could be dangerous.
Good luck!
edit: sorry, SL, bit of a synchronised post – you must type much quicker than me!
Gelding of older horses doesn’t always have the same calming effect as the gelding of a youngster – they get kind of set in their ways and continue to act coltish for longer.
Having said that, it does sound as if your fellow’s problems are more than hormonal – TLC, patience and gentle retraining will be needed. You’ve made the right decision to geld in any case – a nervous, scatty gelding will always be much safer than a nervous, scatty stallion.
IMO Danehill dancers tend to make decent 2yos and his best usually hit their peak around the start of their 3yo season, but dont seem to do much after. They also thrive with cut under foot. Look at Speciosa , Fast Company (probably the best looking danehill dancer Ive seen), Indesatchel, Savethisdanceforme, Carribean Sunset, Gaspar Van Wittel etc
Many people compare Danehill Dancer with Danehill but he is nothing alike IMO. Danehills are usually best on a faster surface, where DDs are almost an exact opposite, and Danehill could knock up many a horse who could dominate not just their 2yo but 3yo seasons and sometimes beyond, Ive yet to see a DD do that.
Ive not really been hugely impressed by either of O’briens Danehill Dancers, Westphalia or Mastercraftsman but if the 2,000 guineas comes up with give in the ground then I would definitely give them a good chance.
My italics
I would query this. You’re right that DDs are not inconvenienced in any way by cut in the ground – he has had a number of Group winners even on Heavy. But his many of his top animals have shown that they are also capable of winning on good ground or faster – of his 7 Northern Hemisphere Gr.1 winners Miss Beatrix won her Gr.1 on good, Where Or When on G-to-F, Alexander Tango and of course Choisir both won on Firm. Jeremy won black-type races on everything from soft to G-t-F. As Mastercraftsman won the Phoenix on G-to-F and Westphalia ran with great credit on Firm at the BC, I wouldn’t have any fears over them handling drier ground in the Guineas.
The figures aren’t compiled anywhere – to get them you would have to plough through all the individual stud books.
I’m also not quite sure of your exact question – do you mean sent to the US to foal and be covered and then sent home again (in the same year)? That would be very few – to be cost effective most would have at least two years of coverings out there. More often newly retired fillies (such as Ouija Board) would be covered for the first time in the States and then sent straight home, but it is more difficult with an established mare as you have the foals to consider too.
If you mean generally, how many mares are exported from Europe to the US every year and not returning the same year, published figures can give you some idea. In recent years, the number of fillies exported from Britain to the US has been between 60-70 each year. Only about half of that would be mares, the rest would be yearlings or fillies in training. About the same again (maybe a few more) would go from Ireland, about the same or less from France, and only a handful from other European countries. So in total, I would estimate at about 100 mares maximum being exported from Europe every year to continue their breeding careers in the US.
Try calling round a few of the smaller trainers and introducing yourself. Most will be glad to look out for something for you and may even have something due to go to the sales. Saves them the bother if they can sell it privately.
You might could pick up a horse that is perfectly sound but pretty useless as a racehorse.
Kind of how my sister picked up her new one – he needed a bit of box rest, and is a total wuss (needs a warehouse-full of rugs to go out overnight), but he was basically free to a good home.
Zacinto, now that is Classic quality breeding. Dansili has had a Gr.1 miler – Price Tag won the Matriarch at Hollywood Park after her shameful relegation from 1st to 3rd in the French 1000 Guineas.
Dansili’s stay well enough and there are plenty of 10f animals on the dam’s side, so that would probably be his optimum distance eventually, but there are also plenty of encouraging signs that the early 8f would suit. The only other black-type winner bred to the cross (Dansili/Distant View) had the speed to win over 5f as a 2yo, and Zacinto’s dam was best at 7-8f.
Given the baby-sitting situation, I think it’s wiser if the sharper of the HJ household brains attends – I shall gracefully step down. I shall be available in the event of a phone-a-friend option.
I personally don’t see Rip Van Winkle as a guineas winner.
I don’t.Purely on breeding, I think he is more likely to be a mile/10f horse than either a sprinter or a Derby contender.
But I’m not wildly enthusiastic about either his breeding or his racing form (although I think his run in the Dewhurst was interesting).
The original assertion by GWILSON was that, if his breeding was examined closely, RVW could be seen to be a sprinter. I strongly disagree with that.
In practice, if someone did a Dosage Index analysis, how would it differ from this:-
Let’s assess RVW’s claims as a July Cup sprinter.
Sire = 10-12f top class performer, good influence for stamina (50% of pedigree)
Dam = Sprinter/miler, unable to win over 6f.
Damsire = Excellent sprinter, slightly disappointing sire (25%)
Granddam = miler, producer of miler. (25%).
Dam’s family = Middle-distance flat, or jumps.This would differ from dosage in that:
Sire – Galileo is not a chef-de-race, so would not be included in the major calculations.
Dam – the female line is not included in the calculations.
Damsire – Stravinsky is not a chef-de-race, so would not be included in the major calculations.
Grandam and tail female line – not included in the calculations.So basically, dosage ignores all the factors I included in my assesment – the subject animal’s closest ancestors. Seems a basic flaw to me.
Having said that, I do find dosage quite interesting, and elements can be useful. Those sires that are marked as chef-de-race are usually accurate. But, particularly from a European viewpoint the problems are:
1) A strong American slant, not always suitable for European pedigrees.
2) Too slow to react to new sires, so many influences are ignored.
3) Reduces all the subtleties and individuality down to one over-simplistic number.
4) Ignores the tail female line completely – a cardinal sin.Sal, are you sure it wasn"t "Alphabet spaghetti" you choked on?
The Grandam "Mustique dream" see above both speedy types there!
and being a daughter of "Dony forget me" hardly the breeding of a Derby
contender! and that is my point! "Rip van winkle" was the first horse to be quoted Ante-post for the Derby back in July and remained the 10/1fav
until Sept when "Sea the Stars" became 8/1 fav! I personally believe that
"Rip van " is a sprinter and will be interested to see his entry for the July cup! Aidan has plenty more "stoutly bred" Derby contenders to dream about over the winter! I shall sleep well tonight thanks thinking about my Ante-post bets on "Black bear island"!
Dont spill your Horlicks!You do realise that there are some races held at distances other than 6f and 12f, don’t you? I agree that the dam profile is not ideal for a Derby-type; however if he does not stay 12f then he does not automatically have to race at sprint distances. If the question is, will RVW be a sprinter (July Cup) or miler (Guineas), then his breeding profile strongly points to the latter.
"Looking back" is a daughter of a 6f Group1 winner "Stravinsky"
theres your speed influence from the Dam.:sigh: Just because a stallion wins at a distance, does not mean that all his progeny will carry that propensity. Some stallions stamp their stock better than others; some transmit exaggerated or diminished versions of their own talent; others will not pass own their own characteristics but maybe that of their sire which skipped a generation. To examine a stallion’s impact on a pedigree you need to look not just at their own race record but the talents of their progeny. Saying that Stravinsky was a super-speedy racehorse means little. He has obviously not passed blinding speed directly to his daughter Looking Back, as she was unable to win over 5 or 6f. She won in pretty much the same distance range as her mother and one of her half-siblings, which suggests that Stravinsky did not have any kind of strong impact on her.
The story is different with Galileo. His progeny have nearly all shown a strong talent for staying distances even in excess of those that Galileo did himself – a typical Sadler’s Wells in fact. You would expect him to add stamina to most families.
If RVW was from a strongly speed influenced family, possibly with a dose of Habitat, maybe Galileo’s prepotency would be diluted (the best milers and speed horses by Sadler’s Wells tended to be with a Habitat cross). But he is not. What you are calling ‘speedy-types’ are generally milers – not exactly a disadvantage for the Guineas, and not ideal (when mixed with a strong stayer) for the July Cup.
Let’s assess RVW’s claims as a July Cup sprinter.
Sire = 10-12f top class performer, good influence for stamina (50% of pedigree)
Dam = Sprinter/miler, unable to win over 6f.
Damsire = Excellent sprinter, slightly disappointing sire (25%)
Granddam = miler, producer of miler. (25%).
Dam’s family = Middle-distance flat, or jumps.So, basically, an awful lot rides on the concept that the slightly disappointing, not terrible prepotent, unproven broodmare sire Stravinsky (whose last winner in this country was incidentally over 11f) can transmit enough speed from his theoretical 25% to over-ride the theoretical 50% influence of super-sire Galileo, the milers influence of the dam and grandam, and the rather slow input from further back in the tail-female line. Good luck with that. I suggest it may be you who has made some Horlicks.
Aidan,"Looking Back" the Dam of "Rip Van Winkle" is a daughter of "Stravinsky"
who never ran further than 7f in his life and whose 3 victories were at 5-6f
the dam herself only ran twice, both times in Italy over 1m."Looking Backs"
Dam "Mustique Dream" is a daughter of the 2,000gns winner "Dont forget me" who never got any further than the mile.The Dam of "Stravinsky"
"Fire the Groom" is closely related to Prince Khalids useful sprinter "Dowsing"! There is more chance of "Rip van Winkle" winning the
July cup than the Derby with that Breeding!I pretty much choked on my soup at this point.
The closest match I have found for the Galileo/Stravinsky cross (RVW is the only one) is Incanto Dream, by Galileo out of a Nureyev mare from a decent US sprinter/miler family (Stormy Atlantic, Hail Atlantis, Mr Katowice). For those who have missed this, Incanto Dream’s most recent start was second in the Prix du Cadran over 20f. That’s the strength of the Galileo prepotency. He has plenty of speedy types at two, and even has some sprinters such as Gallant Tess in Australia, but even they have the stamina to win over a mile.
Stravinsky himself is as yet unproven as a broodmare sire, but none of the sires in RVW’s damside have the prepotency to match Galileo.
Is the tail female line’s influence strong enough to counteract him? Well, to begin with, your info is duff. Looking Back raced 17 times in Italy and won two races over 7f (at 2 and 3), and was not disgraced in her races over a mile, finishing second in a conditions race. Her only black-type was finishing second in a Listed race over 1500m (7 and a half furlongs). Definitely more sprinter/miler than out-and-out speed influence.
Mustique Dream (RVW’s grandam) won two races, both over a mile at 3. She has had two other winners, one winner over 5f as a 2yo, the other won 2 races over a mile at 3 (by Fasliyev and Diktat respectively).
How is any of this a profile of a sprinter, rather than a Guineas horse? I can’t see Derby, but a mile should certainly not be a concern.
The rest of the dam’s side, rather than being packed with speed, is actually quite heavy on the jump horses – some good mile/10f horses such as Ace, Danish and Hawkeye, but also the family of Alderbrook and Sybillin. My main concern with RVW would actually be lack of quality. It is not a strong female family in the first 3 generations, and I don’t think he would make a suitable sire in the long term.
I personally don’t see Rip Van Winkle as a guineas winner, but I’m afraid the breeding analysis that places him as a sprinter has been done by someone possibly delirious from lack of sleep.
I once won the individual ‘audience participation’ quiz – although I seem to remember that one or two of the posters above may have contributed to some of my answers…… (they can’t take it away from me now, can they?)
Generally, when buying a horse, forward, actually refers to the way that they ride, i.e. they dont hold back, they’re not dangerous, but not a novice ride, per se. They want to get on with the job.
That’s more a definition ‘forward-going’ rather than forward. Forward does just mean mature for their age physically – not necessarily mentally, although usually it covers being able to cope with heavier work.
Anyone that bought Nevison’s book as a betting guide was bound to be disappointed, though to be fair to him and the publishers, it was never marketed as that so the point you raise Himself is hardly valid.
Come off it David, the name of his first book surely suggested it might have a few good pointers for winner finding, "A Bloody Good Winner".
And one of Dettori’s books is called The Magnificent Seven: Seven Winners In A Day – did you think that was a guide to backing horses through the card?
The fact that Nevison’s book is listed as autobiography might be a clue.
On a personal level, I’ve had relatively favorable reports about his personality off screen – all this character assassination is a little distasteful.
