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You think a horse beating the standard time by 2.61 seconds is not on the firm side? Whos standard?
You need a level good pace to produce a fast over all time. lol
Todays July Cup was slowly run and favoured those ridden prominently, Fleeting Spirit (who has good 5f form, speedy), Main Aim (set pace), JJ The Jet Plane (raced prominently).
I dont like to point this out but you are talking mumbo jumbo.One hand you say "You need a level good pace to produce a fast over all time"
the other hand you say Todays July Cup was slowly run but yet was near the track record.Please make your mind up……all the times that day at ascot say it wasnt g/f .No matter what the offical going was.
JJ The Jet Plane did not run to form at Ascot and it is hard to see why. I don’t know much about the horse’s character; suppose it’s possible he did not like being closed in, with horses upsides. Likes to be up there and may do better if allowed a lead.
I think the slower going was his un doing and stiffer track.Today If take over target wasnt in the race I would like JJ.I have a horrible feeling the race will be set up for the other aussie.If jj can settle in front without being hassled by take over target I expect a big run.
Why should they give it away? They have done for years and clearly now they have to charge.If there are other free sites them.Why do people expect things for nothing?
I find all this unreal.I wont be paying for the rp ’cause I dont need to.The free content is enough for me.The paper will be losing money(the print industry is near busto because of the net) so they have to make money from somewhere.7.50 isnt that much(i would of charged 4.99).If they want to charge so be it.It will be on their head if no one wants to know.You cant knock a free service or one that wants charge.Why should it be free?
i wish you lot were right about Jamie I backed First in command.Jamie knowing there was no pace took it up on a hold up horse…………
nada.All I need is the free part of the racing post.Everything else for me is over rated and over priced.
I back the one that has the best time.
Is that it?
Only a good horse can do a good time (in relation to the going). However, if the pace of a race is slow, a good horse can put up a bad time.
A good time is a good sign, but imo should not be the be all and end all.
What if there is not much pace in the betting race? It may not be run to suit a horse who puts up a good time when able to do equal fractions (normally a "stayer") at the trip concerned.
For example, if they go a frantic pace in the Eclipse and Conduit happens to win in a fast time. He would not nessecarily be a good bet in the International at York, if there does not look to be much pace in that race.
Would you back the horse whatever the price, whether it is 8/1 or evens? If the bookmakers / exchange punters have taken exactly the same things in to account as you have, the price may be altered accordingly. Therefore a bad bet at the price.
thats it. a good time in relation to the conditions
Im often not having to back evs.
Have a look at tippingleague.co.uk at paceforms results
paceform.com
I know all about picking winners my friend. I believe im the best in the business.What im trying to say is there is no point picking big priced horses if they don’t win ) What price it should be is abstract whether you like it or not……
paceform.com
If that were the case, every horse in every race should be the same price. It is not. You are wrong my friend. If you pick winners which are not value, you will NOT make a profit.
If you find say:
In the course of 5 years, you find 100 horses that you believe are good value at a price of 50/1.That is to say you believe each of those 100 horses have a better than 2% chance of winning. With level stakes, if you win more than twice (2 out of 100 which is 2%) then you make a profit. If you do not win more than twice, then you may not have got value (though that may be a coincidence due to the small sample).Mark
If they keep winning the price dosn’t matter.As it happens id say my average price is 8-1.
I know all about picking winners my friend. I believe im the best in the business.What im trying to say is there is no point picking big priced horses if they don’t win ) What price it should be is abstract whether you like it or not……
paceform.com
I have to say its time to call the Arabs what they are.Clueless.Im sick of the ass kissing to these guys from the press.They took Frankie off and put a camel jockey on.Like you say they buy horses and ruin them.
I for one hope Frankie had his finger on the lay button 4 furlongs out when the young camel jockey was looking between his legs thinking hed won.
Dont get me wrong hes a young lad and not a bad jockey but what were they thinking?
Ginger
Fair play for having the guts to expose your methods to public scrutiny- it’s not easy. This is the only way anyone can prove profitability, by posting bets as they are made, not retrospectively, for a considerable period. Certain others could learn from your courage.
I’d like to add my tuppence worth on staking. After years of having more on shorter priced horses I practically forced myself to employ level stakes as I found it far more profitable. I wouldn’t mind betting that if you adjusted your betting to minimum 2/1 and level stakes your returns would be better- as others have said, I don’t believe it’s possible to be confident about getting value at 6/4 about an assessed 11/10 chance.
One tiny criticism: though it mightn’t be easy you really should update your posts with the results of the races and keep a running total, otherwise it’s just a mass of statistics. Good luck!Carv,
Don’t know about courage; have been putting my bets up on another couple of forums with a fair amount of success. Do agree, it is really the only way to prove yourself. Putting opinions on Big Race Discussions is all well and good; but here there is nowhere to hide and you can’t just forget about the races you lose. Certaily focusses the mind. Am glad to see you’ve started a second tipping thread Carv, hope and trust it will do as well as the first.
Everyone is different. It may be that I am better at finding value at a bigger price than at shorter. But, I don’t want to make the decision to alter stakes / minimum prices etc just yet. As, if I can be equally adept at finding the good short shots, am convinced this staking plan is best.
As I said earlier though, am wondering whether it would be best to concentrate on the very best value in each race, ignoring the lesser value horses. Think last year I had too many saver bets.Its interesting reading what people have been writing about tipping .Value is one thing winning is another and they don’t go hand in hand.
I always hear people bang on about value.If the horse loses where’s the value?
I only bet in handicap races because I think the handicap system is a joke and prices are always bigger.If I want to lay claimers have got to be the place to be.Once again the perception in claimers Is all down to handicap marks.
paceform.com
Only needs to win now.