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Is
Miss Chamanda
not ridiculously well handicapped in Kempton’s 5.00 given the form of her two runs at Windsor last April? She was beaten only by Bonnie Charlie on debut, with a number of subsequent winners (at varying levels) behind, and her victorious second outing couldn’t have worked out better.
A mark of 78 looks incredibly generous.
Equitrack
I never mix turf & all weather form as even on Polytrack-its still a dirt track.
I’ve forgotten how many turf "talking horses" come unstuck on the sand as its a different style of horse/action for differing surfaces.
One of the best winner finders I use is using speed ratings in maidens & a horse who has been 2nd, 3rd ect on Polytrack & who did a good time beats the "Big Yard" hot pot with no AW experience most of the time.
I had a small bet at 7.0 on Statute Book as Pegasus Boy & Miss Chamanda had never ran on sand & typically are bet down.Imo the surface should suit all horses except southwell.What will not suit all horses is the bends.
His turn of foot just wasn’t so effective against better horses in a stronger run race.
A drop back to 7f might see him return to the winners enclosure before too long though.yes i agree.1 37 bit quick.
I guess ive been slagged now look at the win at newcastle over hurdles.What do you see there.
paceform.org
pm2
I read a couple of minor digs, but mainly constructive criticism or those expressing an alternative view. Believe me, if we all got cheesed off so quickly by that many of us would have departed long ago.
If your method works for you then fine, good luck to you.
Rob
It works and out there for all to see unlike the minor knockers as you put them.Knockers they are
by the way.All the SPACEFORM and piss taking makes no odds to me.Just keep coming to paceform.org to make money.I know what i am talking about and picking winners is enough.
paceform.org
I guess ive been slagged now look at the win at newcastle over hurdles.What do you see there.
paceform.org
I look, but I don’t think I’ll find the answer to the age old question
how important is weight?
in races where weight isn’t a variable.
Pru – I’m well aware of the complexity of pace. It was explained to viewers by James Willoughby one night at Kempton. Pace was crucial in every race – the winning jockey had always judged the fractions right. In one race a horse won due to being allowed a soft lead. In another, where there was also a slow early pace,a hold up horse won. I forget the exact reason forwarded but pace explained this win as well. Winners came from the front, from behind, off fast paces and slow paces, with no rhyme or reason I could see, yet every result was a vindication of James’ belief in the importance of pace.
The trouble here is that there’s a fine line between a complex interactive relationship and a theory that purports to explain everything and in reality explains nothing. I’m still none the wiser about which horses are favoured by a slow early pace (in relative terms) under which circumstances beyond saying that the eventual winners were advantaged.
If a track exists where the perfect pace is an even one and two horses post 12 second furlong splits for the first four furlongs of a five furlong race, which horse are you backing to win the race at that point? If one goes on to sprint clear in the final furlong in 12 seconds, while the other runs 14 secs and fades to last, is the winner adjudged to have run the perfect fractions, while the last placed horse used up too much energy early on?
glenn
The horse ran the same time from the front in another race at the same track with more runners with less weight.Look at the last race at cheltenham where he won.If weight makes a difference why did he do the same time up in class with a much bigger load?
I think the press has got into your head.I lumped on at kempton and in many ways he was back to his best.We will soon find out.
paceform.org
The ground all week has been in question but for sure the ground is quicker on the chase course and this will suit kauto star and all being well he will win.There is noway Denman ran without being in their opinion "good order" at kempton.You don’t run a horse with heart problems less than fit.I just hope he gets home.
paceform.org
the ground looks more testing than people think by going by which horses are winning.
Theres a gold cup thread in the cheltenham 2009 area by the way,
I don’t agree with that statement.I think the hurdles track is slower but the chase track is good groundish
Are you trolling? Imperial Commander carried the same weight as all the others. It was a level weights race just like those races you put up the other day as disproving the influence of weight – the champion hurdle and the supreme novices.
lol you’re a thinker. LOOK……..
I’ll ask the question I always ask pacebugs: How would you know if you were wrong?
What would have to happen for you to conclude pace wasn’t a very important factor? Would the two setting an early funeral pace finishing 16th and 18th of 19 destroy your theory for example?
Nothing.I know.have a look at Imperial Commander then tell me weight matters too much.
I would be of that view, Gerald, at least on the hurdles course.
I wondered whether the thread-starter might make something of the pace of the three 2m5f chases. The contention (made on telly) that the Ryanair Chase was a test of speed is difficult to sustain when you look at the sectionals.
where are the sectionals?
normally a 22 horse race dose not start like fox hunt buy yes that’s half the battle finding out how fast they go.And as far as the going.The chase track is running g/s the hurdles soft imo.That might change.The forecast is for warm weather.
not sure what to make of that run. Faster than i thought.Maybe to much weight 
