The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Ginger’s Winners 09

Home Forums Tipping and Research Daily Lays And Plays Ginger’s Winners 09

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 215 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #11749
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    Thought I’d start a tipping thread. Will explain stakes and how I bet a little later but here are a few anti-post bets.

    King Stand Stakes:
    20 points @ 5/1 nrnb (corals) Fleeting Spirit

    Queen Anne:
    20 points @ 5/1 nrnb bog (Stan James) Main Aim
    26 points @ 7/2 nrnb bog (SJ) Paco Boy

    St James’s Palace:
    25 points each way @ 13/2 nrnb (Tote) Evasive

    Golden Jubilee:
    11 points @ 12/1 nrnb (Blue Square) Kings Apostle

    Will do some reasoning later but wanted to put these up before the prices go.

    Mark

    Value Is Everything
    #233882
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    For anyone who does not know how I bet:

    I study form but don’t necessarily back the horse I think has the best chance of winning, looking for value in true odds terms. “Short” priced horses can be value as well as outsiders. Any horse who’s chance I believe is under-estimated, is a bet.
    No bet shorter than 4/5; as although it can be value at 2/7 if it happens to lose will wipe out a lot of profit.
    Often there will be more than one horse in a race that qualifies. In which case will either back all as main bets; or a mixture of main bets, half stakes and saver bets. Depending on how much value I consider is in each price and what form the trainer is in. I also prefer savers on the shorter priced horses.

    The staking plan is directly in relation to the chance I believe each horse has of winning. Something I consider to have a 50% chance (true Evens shot) will have 50 points on, 25% (true 3/1 shot) 25 points and so on. This way of staking puts more money on the shorter prices; but with bigger potential losses it wins less than an outsider.
    A 20% horse will be backed at anything bigger than 9/2.
    20% = true odds of 4/1; then adding a margin for error brings my price to beat up to 9/2 (only betting on my 20% chance if I can get 5/1 or more).
    With a 10% chance: 10% = true odds of 9/1 plus a margin for error. So any 10% chance will have 10 points at anything bigger than 11/1.
    If I think a horse’s chance is easy to work out I may not have a margin for error (20% becomes a bet at better than 4/1, 10% 9/1 etc).

    With each way bets I add half the normal win stake before dividing by two to get the each way stake. e.g. 10% = 10 points for win only, adding half points is 15 points total stake, divided by two is 7.5 each way rounded up to 8 points each way.

    Most of my bets will be Win only, even at big prices. The times I bet each way are when I think the mathematics of the bet are right for it. e.g. at or near 8 or 16 runner handicaps and / or when backing against the favourite and / or second favourite are short prices. It will not particularly be related to the selection’s price. I can bet each way at 7/2 if I believe it is a virtual certainty to finish placed; almost a free win bet at ¼ the odds, getting back most of the stake if placed. Will also bet at 100/1 Win only if I consider the race gives better win value than each way.

    Mark

    Value Is Everything
    #233884
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    Thought I’d start a tipping thread. Will explain stakes and how I bet a little later but here are a few anti-post bets.

    King Stand Stakes:
    20 points @ 5/1 nrnb (corals) Fleeting Spirit

    Queen Anne:
    20 points @ 5/1 nrnb bog (Stan James) Main Aim
    26 points @ 7/2 nrnb bog (SJ) Paco Boy

    St James’s Palace:
    25 points each way @ 13/2 nrnb (Tote) Evasive

    Golden Jubilee:
    11 points @ 12/1 nrnb (Blue Square) Kings Apostle

    Will do some reasoning later but wanted to put these up before the prices go.

    Mark

    Sorry, that should read 13 points each way @ 13/2 Evasive. Will count it as 13 ew in profit / loss tables.

    Value Is Everything
    #233946
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    Queen Anne

    Gladiatorus obviously deserves credit for his win in the Duty Free which has worked out very well. With 2nd Presvis going on to win a Group 1 and Alexandros an unlucky loser in the Lockinge. However, both of those were held up in on course that favoured pace horses on the day. Gladiatorus made all and may be a little flattered. Then in the charge of Mohammed bin Shafya and has now returned to Saaid bin Surror. With no pacemakers it is possible he will get a soft lead again. However, seems over-bet now and with Ahmed Ajtebi on board instead of Dettori, may drift on the day.

    Dettori had his whip knocked out of his hand when beaten a nose on Alexandros in the Lockinge. Had been held up in Dubai but raced prominently which suited the race at Newbury. That was his best performance and is steadily progressive. Will need to improve again but that is not out of the question. Alexandros had….

    Paco Boy, Dream Eater and Aqlaam behind him there. The rain softened ground may not have suited any of those three. Paco Boy, held up and pulled hard early when the pace was slow. Had to use his turn of foot to get in to the race and had nothing left in the final 100 yards. Stays a mile and acts on soft ground but probably did not stay a mile on soft ground. A faster early pace and quicker going should suit Paco Boy better.

    Dream Eater ran a similar race to Paco Boy in the Lockinge, not settling and finishing 9th of 10. Was only ¾ length behind that horse in the Sandown mile but was getting 6lbs. Does not look up to Group 1 level.

    Aqlaam should stay a mile and looked a top class horse in the making in the Jersey (on a firm surface). However, got injured there with a stress fracture. Still lightly raced and could yet improve if 100%. Despite the Haggas stable being in top form at Newbury was friendless in the market and ran as though not over his problems. May be best to look for a market move tomorrow.

    James Fanshawe is (as last year) not in great form so far this year. Cesare is an Ascot specialist, unlucky in running in this last season. Is now an 8 year old and probably will need a best ever performance to win this on his reappearance.

    Mac Love won the Group 3 Diomed and is also an 8 year old. Has good speed and was suited by the conditions at Epsom, a slowly run race on a sound surface. Nothing he’s done suggests a Group 1 win is on the cards.

    Main Aim won a 7 furlong Group 3 easily from Beacon Lodge who won a French Group 3 easily yesterday. Beat Arabian Gleam 3 lengths but was getting 5lbs. Travels well over 7f and there’s a chance he won’t stay a mile. Sire Oasis Dream has got many horses who stay further than he did. Main Aim’s dam won at 1m as a two year old and half brother Home Affairs also won at a mile. Seems to settle well and is more likely than not to get the trip. Improvement has come with some give underfoot but has won on a firm surface.

    Arabian Gleam has always looked best at 7f and seems thoroughly exposed at just below top class.

    My 100% book for good or good-firm going:
    Paco Boy 11/4, Gladiatorus 3/1, Main Aim 4/1, Alexandros 7/1, Aqlaam 18/1, Cesare 20/1, Arabian Gleam 25/1, Dream Eater 40/1, Mac Love 800/1.

    Mark

    Value Is Everything
    #233987
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    St James’s Palace:

    Born To Be King and Set Sail look to be in here just to ensure a test of stamina for Coolmoore’s first string. Though neither looks up to winning this from the front and the rest might ignore them.

    Mastercraftsman has the best chance of winning but looks a poor price. Will take all the beating if able to reproduce the form of his impressive Irish 2000 Guineas win totally different (heavy) ground. Has winning form on a sound surface but others may well have been inconvenienced in Ireland. Aidan O’Brien is not quite in the cracking form he was then. All Mastercraftsman’s wins have come at The Curragh and ran poorly after a busy campaign on his final two year old start in France (stable in poor form then). This now his third run in just over 6 weeks. Having said all that, he stands comfortably the best chance of these.

    Delegator was only 9th of 10 behind Mastercraftsman, eased when beaten. Probably did not act on the ground or stay the trip in the testing conditions. But also, the Meehan stable was in awful form at the time. It was a dismal performance and it’s asking a lot to return to form here. But I see no reason why he and Mastercraftsman should be as far apart in the betting. Goes well on a firm surface and the English 2000 form has held up well.

    Soul City ran well on reappearance in the Irish 2000. But has 6 lengths to make up on Mastercraftsman. His best has come with some give underfoot.

    Evasive had an interrupted preparation for the Guineas and may be better than that run suggests. Still in with a chance when hampered; that probably the reason for him weakening in the final furlong, rather than stamina. Comes from an excellent family, That of Prix Diane winner East Of The Moon and the brilliant Miesque. Sire responsible for Raven’s Pass. One of the best looking two year olds I saw last year. All going comes alike to him.

    Pure Poetry was only just behind Evasive in the 2000 and ran well afterwards. Just pipped on the post by Premio Loco. However, seems more exposed than most here.

    Lord Shanekill disappointed in the 2000 and is not certain to stay. By a Breeders Cup Sprint winner though dam stayed quite well. Close second in a poor Dewhurst.

    Intense Focus was the victor in the Dewhurst but is a small horse who (judged on his reappearance in March) may not have trained on.

    Orizaba seemed to prove his stamina when third in a French Group 3 on reappearance. Just below top class as a two year old and looks little more than a social runner for Godolphin here.

    My 100% book:
    Mastercraftsman 6/4, Delegator 7/2, Evasive 5/1, Intense Focus 16/1, Lord Shanekill 22/1, Soul City 25/1, Pure Poetry 40/1, Orizaba 40/1, Set Sail 500/1, Born To Be King 800/1.

    Mark

    Value Is Everything
    #233989
    Pompete
    Member
    • Total Posts 2391

    Good work GT interesting stuff, best of luck 8)

    #233990
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    Thanks Pompete.

    Saver for the Queen Anne
    6 points @ 9/1 (Fred Done, Corals, Hills) Alexandros
    Already Advised
    20 points @ 5/1 Main Aim
    26 points @ 7/2 Paco Boy

    Value Is Everything
    #234098
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    King’s Stand:

    Scenic Blast is an interesting Aussie runner. Comes out the best horse at the weights in 6 of his last seven races (including two Grade 1 handicaps). Probably equally effective at 5 or 6f, though may have to be pushed along early at the minimum trip. Usually held up and that may help him as there is so much pace here. Possibly has the worst of the draw but there are only 15 runners and can switch behind runners. Excellent chance if he has enough early speed. Had Fist Of Fury well beaten in 6th last time so already have a soft spot for him.

    Cannonball is the US challenger but does not look good enough. Second in Grade 3’s recently. Three starts back was beaten by the ex-Bryan Smart trained Helvellyn. Whether that is true form is open to doubt.

    Mythical Flight from South Africa was 6th to the Hong Kong wonder horse Sacred Kingdom last time at Kranji, beaten 7 lengths. Does not quite look good enough. One dubious form line is when beaten in 07 by the now Eustace trained War Artist (placed in Golden Jubilee and July Cup). Mythical Kingdom is a front runner in a race with bags of pace but may be able to bag the rail (possible advantage).

    Amour Propre is the best British hope. Unbeaten on a sound surface. On the up; won the Palace House beating Hoh Hoh Hoh and the below form Borderlescott comfortably. Henry Candy is adept at producing top class sprinters and is in excellent form. Amour Propre races prominently and has plenty of early speed. Excellent chance if not going too fast too soon.

    Borderlescott does not seem to be in the same form this term. Now a seven year old and possibly on the downgrade. Unless he’s taking time to hit top form. The July Cup he won looks a bit substandard too, admirable horse though he is. Possibly suited by a stiff 5f or easy 6f. This might be a bit quick for him.

    Fleeting Spirit was mightily impressive on reappearance last year, beating Borderlescott quite easily. So the fact she’s fresh looks a big positive. Third in this afterwards but did not get back to her Temple Stakes form. Drawn 1, with possibly the best of the draw (with luck in running). Second to Natagora in the Chieveley Park and beat Kingsgate Native in a terrific Molecomb as a two year old. The Noseda stable is now in good form. If back to her best has a good chance.

    Equiano won this for Spain last year and then went to Barry Hills. Has had a stress fracture and may not be able to show that form again. A stable spy tells me he does not believe Equiano is a Group 1 animal this year. Promising reappearance when stable in terrific form (not so good now) but ran poorly twice since. Races prominently.

    Tax Free was the one to beat Equiano at Newmarket and seems consistent but exposed as just below top class. Another prominent runner.

    Hoh Hoh Hoh is also exposed and unlikely to be able to show the necessary improvement. Can lose the race with slow starts.

    Dandy Man I believe has brittle feet and does not look capable of the same form now. Disappointed this year, but does have a good placed record at Royal Ascot. Another prominent runner.

    Captain Gerrard is another who’s lost his form and is best with give underfoot. Runs his best races when able to dominate, unlikely to do so here.

    Rievaulux World a front runner who may well be good enough to lead early, Mike Cattermole reckons he is the fastest horse in the country. Unfortunately he rarely stays there, but is still a little unexposed.

    Wi Dud is probably best with give nowadays. Possibly flattered in very soft going in the Temple stakes. Well beaten since at Epsom. Poor win / run ratio.

    Anglezarke beat Rievaulux World but possibly does not have the scope for further progress of that one. win.

    Spin Cycle won a conditions race at Mussleborough so does not look up to this. But beat the good class older handicapper Cheveton half a length at level weights. Cheveton next ran a close 3rd in a class 2 handicap at York despite a poor draw. Spin Cycle was placed in the Norfolk here last year and goes well on a sound surface. Although has something to find with the top four is more unexposed than most of the others around his current level. Stable’s form is a negative.

    My 100% book:
    Scenic Blast 100/30, Amour Propre 7/2, Fleeting Spirit 4/1, Borderlescott 10/1, Tax Free 18/1, Spin Cycle 25/1, Equiano 28/1, Hoh Hoh Hoh 33/1, Mythical Flight 40/1, Rievaulux World 40/1, Dandy Man 50/1, Anglezarke 66/1, Cannonball 66/1, Wi Dud 132/1, Captain Gerrard 400/1.

    Mark

    Value Is Everything
    #234100
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    King’s Stand Stakes
    Already Advised
    20 points @ 5/1 Fleeting Spirit

    Now
    4 points @ 40/1 (Skybet) Spin Cycle

    There are others close to value that might yet be backed.

    Value Is Everything
    #234120
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    St James’s Palace:

    Already Advised
    13 points each way @ 13/2 Evasive

    Now a saver
    6 points @ 5/1 (VC) Delegator

    Value Is Everything
    #234202
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    Coventry:

    Canford Cliffs has the best chance of winning, impressive at Newbury but the stable has not been scoring at the usual rate recently. That is a worry, particularly with two year olds, as they are more susceptible to viruses (if that’s what it is).

    No Hubris won well at York and is from a yard that have done well over the years with two year olds at Royal Ascot. It is though, hard to see why he should be as far ahead as the second Flying Statesman in the betting.

    Flying Statesman is available at 40/1, 43/1 at the time of writing on Betfair. Only 2 ¼ lengths behind No Hubris on debut and more green than him. Flying Statesman has won since in workmanlike fashion. Worth a speculative few quid with the stable remaining in god form.

    Red Jazz will wait to see if I can beat the general 8/1 about Barry Hills horse. Already got course winning form and bred to do better at this trip. Stable not in the same form as earlier in the year though.

    Air Chief Marshal won impressively on heavy going at 7f before unlucky at 5f last time. Might find a few too speedy in these conditions. Only raced on a soft surface.

    Marsh warbler is an interesting Mark Johnstone runner. Easy winner of a modest Redcar maiden.

    Stable companion of the favourite, Fremont won at Goodwood. Despite looking green. Only getting going for hands and heels in the final 100 yds. Beat Rakaan who’d had a run previously (behind Canford Cliffs). Fremont may make abnormal progress, is a brother of smart but untrustworthy sprinter Asset. Even with a stable concern, looks over-priced currently on Betfair.

    Alrasm is a good looking individual, saw him at Newbury, ran green after travelling well. Then beat the track record on firm at Doncaster.

    Moran Cra’s small Irish stable is going well at the moment. Won a maiden at Leopardstown by 3 lengths.

    Raines Cross was second in the National Stakes for his small trainer, but Winkworth does not seem in great form. Keep an eye on the betting, took plenty out of the bookies on debut, 9/2 from 14/1.

    Extension won an ordinary maiden at Goodwood. But the stable is in cracking form and is a lively outsider.

    Walkingonthemoon impressed in the paddock as a well grown individual at Newbury. Has progressed since but failed to win. Second in the Woodcote at Epsom.
    Rakaan has been beaten by both the Hannon representatives and it’s hard seeing him taking revenge. Stable is in better form than when beaten at Goodwood though.

    Treadwell won an ordinary maiden despite showing clear signs of greeness, jumped path. Has to find good deal here.

    My 100% book is:
    Canford Cliffs 11/4, No Hubris 6/1, Red Jazz 6/1, Air Chief Marshal 10/1, Marsh Warbler 18/1, Flying Statesman 20/1, Fremon 20/1, Alrasm 22/1, Raines Cross 28/1, Moran Cra 28/1, Extension 28/1, Walkingonthemoon 33/1, Rakaan 66/1, Treadwell 80/1.

    Mark

    Value Is Everything
    #234204
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    Coventry:

    4 points each way @ 40/1 (SJ) Flying Statesman

    Will probably have more bets on this race in the morning.

    mark

    Value Is Everything
    #234252
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    Coventry

    Red Jazz will wait to see if I can beat the general 8/1 about Barry Hills horse. Already got course winning form and bred to do better at this trip. Stable not in the same form as earlier in the year though.

    My 100% book is:
    Canford Cliffs 11/4, No Hubris 6/1, Red Jazz 6/1, Air Chief Marshal 10/1, Marsh Warbler 18/1, Flying Statesman 20/1, Fremon 20/1, Alrasm 22/1, Raines Cross 28/1, Moran Cra 28/1, Extension 28/1, Walkingonthemoon 33/1, Rakaan 66/1, Treadwell 80/1.

    Mark

    Already advised
    4 points each way Flying Statesman 40/1
    Now
    11 points each way @ 10/1 (L) Red Jazz

    Mark

    Value Is Everything
    #234263
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    King’s Stand Stakes
    Already Advised
    20 points @ 5/1 Fleeting Spirit

    4 points @ 40/1 (Skybet) Spin Cycle

    There are others close to value that might yet be backed.

    Another one:
    2 points @ 99/1 (betfair) Rievaulux World

    Value Is Everything
    #234265
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    St James’s Palace:

    Already Advised
    13 points each way @ 13/2 Evasive

    6 points @ 5/1 (VC) Delegator

    Another one:
    2 points @ 74/1 (betfair) Pure Poetry

    Mark

    Value Is Everything
    #234384
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    2000 Guineas 2009

    9 points @ 16/1 (corals) Canford Cliffs

    Will lay this back later.

    mark

    Value Is Everything
    #234388
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    That’s 2010 Guineas, :wink:

    Mark

    Value Is Everything
Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 215 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.