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Will respond to your question Palacemat later.
Studying for Salisbury.
6:30 Salisbury
38 points @ 11/4 (SJ bog) Go Forth NorthValue Is EverythingI know all about picking winners my friend. I believe im the best in the business.What im trying to say is there is no point picking big priced horses if they don’t win ) What price it should be is abstract whether you like it or not……
paceform.com
I know all about picking winners my friend. I believe im the best in the business.What im trying to say is there is no point picking big priced horses if they don’t win ) What price it should be is abstract whether you like it or not……
paceform.com
If that were the case, every horse in every race should be the same price. It is not. You are wrong my friend. If you pick winners which are not value, you will NOT make a profit.
If you find say:
In the course of 5 years, you find 100 horses that you believe are good value at a price of 50/1.That is to say you believe each of those 100 horses have a better than 2% chance of winning. With level stakes, if you win more than twice (2 out of 100 which is 2%) then you make a profit. If you do not win more than twice, then you may not have got value (though that may be a coincidence due to the small sample).Mark
Value Is Everything7:35 Salisbury
32 points @ 11/4 (generally) LarkhamLarkham 32% 85/40, Cill Rialaig 21% 4/1, Basra 19% 9/2, Emporer Court 10.5% 17/2, Opera Prince 6.25% 15/1, Goodwood Starlight 5.75% 16/1, Man Of Gwent 3.5% 28/1, St Jean Cap Ferrat 2% 50/1.
Value Is EverythingValue doesn’t mean backing big priced horses all the time. 6/4 can be value if you assess it as a even money chance etc.I had my biggest bet of the national hunt season on Big Bucks at Aintree because I though he should have been 1/2.
You’ve put up some good thoughts on here before pacemat and I certainly don’t doubt your ability to disect a race accurately.
Ultimately price has to be taken into account, the price should be reflective of a horses chances and accept under the odds will see you fail eventually as races will be lost completely out of our control.
It’s like the old coin toss, if you accept 5/6 about heads every time you’ll win plenty of times and may even go on enough of a sequence to look nicely ahead but eventually you’ll lose and the only way to beat anyone offering you odds is to accept bigger than even money.
Of course racing is more subjective so it’s not as set in stone as that, but fundamentally it’s the same principle
I know all about picking winners my friend. I believe im the best in the business.What im trying to say is there is no point picking big priced horses if they don’t win ) What price it should be is abstract whether you like it or not……
paceform.com
If that were the case, every horse in every race should be the same price. It is not. You are wrong my friend. If you pick winners which are not value, you will NOT make a profit.
If you find say:
In the course of 5 years, you find 100 horses that you believe are good value at a price of 50/1.That is to say you believe each of those 100 horses have a better than 2% chance of winning. With level stakes, if you win more than twice (2 out of 100 which is 2%) then you make a profit. If you do not win more than twice, then you may not have got value (though that may be a coincidence due to the small sample).Mark
If they keep winning the price dosn’t matter.As it happens id say my average price is 8-1.
Am interested to know Placemat, how do you pick your winners?
Are they always the horse you believe has the best chance of winning?
Value Is EverythingI back the one that has the best time.
Is that it?
Only a good horse can do a good time (in relation to the going). However, if the pace of a race is slow, a good horse can put up a bad time.
A good time is a good sign, but imo should not be the be all and end all.
What if there is not much pace in the betting race? It may not be run to suit a horse who puts up a good time when able to do equal fractions (normally a "stayer") at the trip concerned.
For example, if they go a frantic pace in the Eclipse and Conduit happens to win in a fast time. He would not nessecarily be a good bet in the International at York, if there does not look to be much pace in that race.
Would you back the horse whatever the price, whether it is 8/1 or evens? If the bookmakers / exchange punters have taken exactly the same things in to account as you have, the price may be altered accordingly. Therefore a bad bet at the price.
Value Is EverythingEclipse Sandown
16 points each way Conduit @ 9/2 (got 5’s but price has gone now)
Almost a free win bet. Words that could come back to hauntAlso made Twice Over value but can only do one each way.
Value Is EverythingSea The Stars is obviously the one to beat. Probable winner but not that probable. Stable was in fantastic form at the time of both Guineas and Derby. Not exactly poor form now but not good either. Has an action that is very much for top of the ground. May be more good than firm today.
Conduit may not be at his very best at this trip, but probably needed the race first time up and may well be capable of maintaining the same pace for 1m2f.
Rip Van Winkle must be taken on, particularly with Ladbrokes top price (Mike Dillon is in the know with this yard) and rumours of a set back. Always impressed at home but never quite shown it on track.
Twice Over ran a good race at Royal Ascot and may be able to pick up the pieces if things go wrong for the big three.
Cima De Triomphe beat Conduit getting 7lbs and with fitness advantage. Can’t see any reason he should finish ahead of Conduit today, but having said that is fairly priced.
Value Is EverythingI back the one that has the best time.
Is that it?
Only a good horse can do a good time (in relation to the going). However, if the pace of a race is slow, a good horse can put up a bad time.
A good time is a good sign, but imo should not be the be all and end all.
What if there is not much pace in the betting race? It may not be run to suit a horse who puts up a good time when able to do equal fractions (normally a "stayer") at the trip concerned.
For example, if they go a frantic pace in the Eclipse and Conduit happens to win in a fast time. He would not nessecarily be a good bet in the International at York, if there does not look to be much pace in that race.
Would you back the horse whatever the price, whether it is 8/1 or evens? If the bookmakers / exchange punters have taken exactly the same things in to account as you have, the price may be altered accordingly. Therefore a bad bet at the price.
thats it. a good time in relation to the conditions
Im often not having to back evs.
Have a look at tippingleague.co.uk at paceforms results
paceform.com
2:35 Newmarket
17 points each way @ best early price (9/2 or bigger) CapercaileHabaayib 6/4, Capercaile 7/2, Misheer 6/1, Ceedwell 10/1, Swan Wings 20/1, Little Scotland 28/1, Lady Darshaan 33/1, Crown 66/1, Hairspray 132/1, Raddy ‘Ell Pauline 200/1.
Will hold on the 3:10 as going will be all important.
Value Is Everything3:10 Newmarket
37 points @ 2/1 (B365 bog) Goldikova
13 points @ 9/1 (PP bog) Heaven Sent
2 points @ 45/1 (betfair) CosmopolitanValue Is Everything2:00 Newmarket
27 points @ 100/30 (B365 bog) Orpen Grey3:10 Newmarket
9 points @ 14/1 (B Sq) Enroller
20 points @ 5/1 (B365 bog) All The AcesValue Is Everything
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