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My pre-weights shortlist reads:
Flooring Porter – Stable form to one side, I can’t unsee that Kerry National performance last season. Something to prove after his layoff, but I’m not reading a thing into his comeback run.
Handstands – Stamina to prove, but he’s in the right hands. He wouldn’t be my typical National selection, but I just get the feeling he has something in hand.
L’Homme Presse – Been waiting years for him to take up this engagement. His current mark is high enough, but he’s been running well this season despite the stable form, which is a boost in itself.
Panic Attack – Could be a Skelton special. It’s touch and go if she will get in as I don’t think bottom weight will be too far away from 147.
Resplendent Grey – My idea of the likeliest winner. He’ll have the right man on board and ticks plenty of boxes. Can’t believe he’s still such a backable price.
The Real Whacker – Another one I’ve waited ages to see line up here. He has looked way out of sorts this season, but has consequently dropped to a decent mark.There are a bunch of Irish plots that will take the eye I’m sure after the weights this afternoon, and it’d be foolish not to have one or two of them on side, but for the time being I’m siding with this rogues gallery.
They argue that it adds to the build up, but in truth no one is paying any notice to anything other than Cheltenham at this point.
The Tuesday after Cheltenham would be the ideal time to reveal weights. Scupper those plots which make the season demoralising to watch at times while also giving everyone as much time as reasonably possible to get their marks up if they need a few more pounds to get in.
Make the build-up a neat three week affair:
Week 1: Weight reveal.
Week 2: Final scratchings.
Week 3: Declarations and race.The sooner they do away with this corporate weights lunch two months in advance the better.
There are incremental changes they could make to assist with catering the race towards it’s intended clientele.
The prize money definitely contributes to the issue in my opinion. I would halve it as a minimum, if not more and put it into the supporting races. Drive their value up.
I would increase the minimum number of chase runs required. I hate seeing runners having their sixth run over fences in the National. I think it’s begging for trouble. On top of that I would turn the minimum “runs” into minimum “completions”. The annual National each way pickers will gavitate towards a race that has recurring characters, names they recognise from the previous years or from catching the odd Saturday race.
The rule of “finishing in the first 4 in a race over 3 miles” is painfully flawed. Finish 4th beaten out of sight in a 5 runner chase and you’re qualified. Finish 5th beaten 3 lenths in a 20 runner handicap and you’re not. The rule should be to finish “placed” in a 3 mile chase utilising standard each way terms.
Ruby Walsh once suggested a rule of having to have finished in the first four in a 3 mile chase in one of your last 3 runs, which I didn’t think was the worst idea in the world, espeically if you applied the “placed” rule instead. His argument is you don’t just want the top rated, you want the best ‘in form’ rated runners.
I just don’t see how you can police a cap on runners from owners or trainers. I was pig sick seeing 10 no hopers taking up places in the 2019 renewal to make Tiger Roll’s job easier and I was keen to see a cap introduced, but I just can’t see how it can work.
I do believe ‘win and you’re in’ has scope, conceptually. However I almost feel like if you’re going to go down that route, why not go full Pertemps Final and have the race limited to qualifiers? Have a wide range of races that you must place in to qualify for a run in the Grand National? They’ve changed the race so radically already, why not experiment further? Won’t do the race any more harm.
I’m not talking about fences this year. I’ve mentioned my idea about park fences dressed in spruce enough.
I’m 99% sure that one of them is Sebastian. Pretty sure I’ve read something confirming this.
The other one is a little more ambiguous, but I think the cloth reads 9, which would make him Andy Pandy. The loose horse also appears to have a very small star on his head, which marries up with Andy Pandy (the 1977 Whitbread offers better viewing of his finer features).
So the two (admittedly) loose horses who beat Rummy home that day both fell at Bechers when leading. It’s easy to forget how fortuitous that third win was when you consider the two falling leaders mentioned, Boom Docker’s bizarre refusal at the 17th when well clear of the remainder, Sage Merlin’s fall at the Chair who was Boom Dockers main persuer at the time and himself quite a way clear of the others (though his rider once replied to a comment of mine on Facebook that he was all out at the time!), and of course the shuddering mistake by Churchtown Boy at the second last.
You could write dissertations on some of those old Nationals. Wonderful stuff.
All In You and Milldam for me. Both proven on the ground and that can make all the difference in those conditions.
I thought I was the smartest person in the room with some of my picks
Thick as a brick.Out:
Ammes
Kalif Du BerlaisIn:
Romeo Coolio
WodhoohNot getting stuck in properly, but Search For Glory won’t be hindered by the going and is in good form, so I’ll chuck a dart at him.
Resplendent Grey is a pretty mad price and will be my first bet in the race alongside L’Homme Presse. The former is perhaps a shade below being graded level and is clearly in good nick while the latter has been an Aintree hopeful of mine since his novice days. Maybe handicapped to his best, but has shown that he can be competetive all the same.
I’m another one looking at Panic Attack. Can’t not be impressed with her Cheltenham/Newbury double and has had a nice canter around Newbury again since. Happy to wait with her, but definitely of interest.
Victtorino will be a bet once the weights come out, assuming he gets an entry. 146 is on the cusp of getting in these days, so it might be a wait and see where he is in relation to the weights job.
I’m sure there’ll be a dozen more once the entries come out.
Tough race this. If connections of Myretown and Konfusion think them good enough to warrant entries in the Gold Cup then they should be plenty good enough to win this. Its just which one?
I’ll go with a rare forecast with the pair and an obligatory tenner on Royal Pagaille.
Really disappointing turnout for such a decent prize and one of my personal highlights of the season.
I’ve had Le Milos and Copperhead in the back of my mind for this pretty much since the last renewal. I don’t particularly want to back two in such a small field, but I can’t abandon either of them. Surprised Copperhead is such a backable price, but no surprise to see Le Milos where he is in the market.
It’s a race that has been kind to me since its inception, and I’m hopeful one of these two will keep that trend going.
Not a race I tend to get stuck into, but Home By The Lee is an old favourite and likes this race, for all this looks a pretty hot renewal. I’ll have a small go for interest sake.
Most of these are running to get their marks reduced for the Grand National, so it’s between the top three from a win perspective and none of them are my kind of price.
I’ll take a chance on Champ Kiely grabbing a place of one of the top three don’t perform.
Majborough is one of those horses I can’t see myself ever backing. Found A Fifty is way more reliable and good enough to take this. Solness could be a wild card, but I’ll just go with the one.
It’s a neat lineup with plenty you can make cases for.
I’ll go with Git Maker and Haiti Couleurs, the latter being a level above these if at his best.
I’ll kick myself for it later, but I’ll have a small go on Nassalam at a price now he’s finally back to a reasonable mark.
Thick as a brick.