[Patrick2810]

Latest on the O’Brien plans

Joseph O’Brien

to ride

Battle of Marengo

Ryan Moore

to ride

Ruler of the World

Richard Hughes

to ride

Mars

Seamie Heffernan

to ride

Festive Cheer

Colm O’Donoghue

to ride

Flying the Flag

Dettori will not ride any ballydoyles

Magician will not run in the derby, will instead run at the St James’ Palace Stakes at Ascot.

[Patrick2810]

Really liking the looks of Ocovango if DA

fails to stay

. Magician also impressive, but I have doubts.

I don’t think BOM is anything special, especially looking at his derrinstown trial – wasn’t impressed even though I wanted to be looking at how favoured he is with the Obrians. Could place, but would not take a risk with this.

Magician impressed me a lot in the Irish 2000 guineas, but I am very surprised he has been put in the derby, with a week to recover. IF he recovers well, he should be up there and

be able to give DA a run for his money.

However this is doubtful as it is just such a short time between races.

This leaves Ocovango for me who has run well and is 3 from 3. Also, Andre Fabre would not send him over unless he saw something special in him and after following the same route as Pour Moi, could we see Déja Vu?(pardon the french pun) He is also sired from a horse that likes soft ground, and seems to be running well on soft ground. The weather is forecast to rain here over the next few days which could be beneficial to him as well as bad for DA.

I think I will prefer ew on Ocovango than to back DA. Will be interesting to see how Magician copes aswell.

[Patrick2810]

Hi
Does anyone know if any of the the horses will be having a gallop on the course in the week? I live close to the course so tt would be interesting to see.

[Patrick2810]

Dawn Approach looks a very good horse, but I must remember, this is an extra 800 metres we are talking about.
Jim Bolger said last year how he was not sure if he could push DA to 1 mile, how he was more a a short distance horse. The mile and a half wasn’t even in his mind.
Now DA has got the mile, will pushing him an extra half mile be too much?

I’m aware of how good of a horse he is, but am not conviced about his stamina, perhaps he is just an excellent miler.

I think an EW bet on a horse like BOM would be preferred for me.

[Patrick2810]

Is it the time to get money on DA? Will he keep shortening?

Doubt he is going to get much shorter. Ever thought it might rain on the day – 5/4 wouldn’t look so tasty then.

Thanks

Do you know if many will be in the irish 2000 guineas….or any other races?

Finding it a bit hard to look past DA at the moment ^^

[Patrick2810]

Is it the time to get money on DA? Will he keep shortening?

[Patrick2810]

Are there any more trials with the big derby contenders?
I was really hoping to see Telescope run in the Dante and BOM’s run was not as convincing as I was hoping.

[Patrick2810]

I know I said dawn approach would not win the guineas, but surely 2.8 on betfair is a crazy price for the derby?

you only have to look at the dams side of the pedigree to see there might be a serious problem with him getting the derby trip. also as pricewise pointed out, he’s hardly likely to be any shorter on the day, plenty to come out and show their hand, there’s bound to be an impressive winner of one of the trials which will shake up the betting…

I too think the prices are very short for Dawn Approach. I’m not convinced he will stay the mile and a half although his run at newmarket was very impressive.

I want to see how Telescope and Battle of Marengo do in the Dante Stakes next week, they seem to be the only contenders right now.

[Patrick2810]

Dawn Approach’s run in the 2000 guineas looked so good but several of the trends seem to point against him.

9 of 10 winners were born before 15th March (exception born on 6th April) – Foaled April 23rd
9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts – Has had 7

[Patrick2810]

Great win today, can’t believe Dawn Approach is already 2/1! Was 12/1 not that long ago.

Should we back him now or wait?

[Patrick2810]

2000

1st Toronado
2nd Dawn Approach
3rd Van Der Neer

1000

1st Hot Snap
2nd Sky Lantern
3rd What a name

[Patrick2810]

Best EW bets ?

Best each way bets I’d say are Rival D’Estruval and Auroras Encore Patrick.

Thanks for those.

What do you think about Bradley today?

[Patrick2810]

Best EW bets ?

[Patrick2810]

The race is looking interesting.

With some paying 5 places what are some good EW bets?

Also any win bets? (tips to win)

Thanks!!

[Patrick2810]

How much will this race indicate which horse will win the derby?

[Patrick2810]

Decided to go with Ginger’s Teeforthree and Cappableu to win bets, it’s so hard to find good value each way bets so I put a fiver on each

Going to Italy for a week (will miss the national) hopwefully I’ll come back to a £55 or £75 present

Good luck everyone!

[Patrick2810]

I’m looking to place a £5 (£10) EW bet this year on that amazing Bet Victor deal – 6 places.

Any suggestions for a good value horse? I was thinking TeaforThree, but that would pay little if it placed

I’m already on Teaforthree @ 20/1 Patrick (and Cappa Bleu @ 33/1 and Wyck Hill @ 33/1 ). But if you want a big priced value bet at current prices… 50/1 non-runner-no-bet with both Skybet and Ladbrokes looks excellent value. He’s available at bigger on exchanges but that’s not NRNB.

Improved 33/1 winner of Irish Grand National last year and won previous start @ 50/1. Although 11 years old hasn’t had much racing and still unexposed at marathon trips.

I tipped Neptune Collonges @ around 50/1 as my main bet (to win most money) last year Patrick.

Which horse are you talking about ?
If you had one each way bet what would it be – 6 places?

Thanks!!

[Author]

Posts