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My three to back purely on certain trends I think could be most reliable:
Killyglen
West End Rocker
SunnyhillboyWell it’s ante-post rules. Not difficult to find out. Just look at the top or bottom and it’ll say.
If you back NRNB do the same rules apply? Or are the rules different after certain declaration stages?
Thanks to both of you for the responses
Henderson & Geraghty have both said that Darlan is better than Tetlami. Geraghty said Tetlami wouldn’t get within a furlong of Darlan actually…
That could more than likely end up being the case but my personal preference is not to back lto fallers, especially in the novice sphere…a scheme which probably costs me quite a bit of money!! But just a personal preference.
Really looking forward to this years renewal though, looks like there’s quite a few with decent chances.
Having just looked through the card, it is quite possible that there will only be 6 runners in this!!!! With Kid Cassidy, Nearest The Pin, Cristal Bonus and Astracad all having other more realistic options.
Does anybody know what the deal is with ante-post e/w bets? Do you still get paid 3 places? And when does that change???
Thanks in advance to whoever answers
I’ve had a bet on Divapour NRNB so if he doesn’t run it’s not then of the world for me. My main fancy is still Dylan Ross each way. I find it hard to imagine him being off the bridle before the last. He will most likely get out-battled in the finish but 33/1 represents cracking each way value imo. And, who knows, on good ground he might see out his race better and get married
I’m in agreement on Dylan Ross. He might well get out battled by a better sort as he has on his last few runnings but at the odds he is very good value.
My other fancy in the race would be Tetlami. Has been impressive on his two hurdle appearances so far and seems to have a pretty powerful engine at the end of his races. Possibly would need further in time?….but my preference is to know the horse would get the distance in a normally fast run opener. Not that it was in the same sphere but he also looked quite good in his only appearance at Chelters, finished off his bumper very well.
The bumper isn’t normally a race I would pay too much attention to as it’s very hard to guage the form of many of the runners but was rather bored last night and decided to have a go…..
One horse imparticular struck me, Sir Johnson. Not necessarily the winner of the race, but certainly one which I believe to be the best value.
Has won four straight bumpers, the last of which was a listed contest at Aintree over 17f (and really asserted over the last furlong which would bode well for getting up the hill) in which he carried 7lbs more than Royal Guardsman and beat him quite well. The only article I can find on the horse is an interview done with his trainer after the race in which he said he’ll either be put away espcially for Cheltenham or he’d go hurdling straight away, and the former has obviously been decided upon.
Plus even if following top speed and RPR he isn’t too bad on TS of 75 and RPR of 126.
While I’d imagine Royal Guardman will have come on further than Sir Johnson, I can’t see a reason for the huge difference in prices.
I’m a novice when it comes to the bumper game so am I missing something and can anybody clue me in?
I think you will find I discovered the wheel on the 23rd January – sometimes it’s an idea to read through threads.
I had read through the thread, my question wasn’t "does anybody else think Sir Johnson is a good bet?", I could see that you had already pointed him out. I was asking if anybody knows why Royal Guardsman is so much shorter than Sir Johnson? What are the reasons why he would be able to turn the form around just between the two of them?
Like I said in my earlier post, I don’t follow bumpers at all really so I wanted some more knowledgeable opinions on the differences between the two horses which could explain the price difference. I think you’ve taken my question as a slight on your opinion or something, it wasn’t anything of the sort.
Unaccompanied still lurks in the entries. What’s Weld up to??
Just incase Quevega is pulled out I presume???
Stan Cosgrave, racing manager for the owners, Moyglare Stud, said: "Dermot put her in just in case something happened to Willie Mullins’ good mare (Quevega).
"It’s doubtful she’ll run, but if the good filly doesn’t run then she would.
"It’s just a safety valve. It’s unlikely, but you never know."
When DM was asked about the reason (why PC might be aimed at the Jewson rather than the Arkle) during his ‘question time’ on betfair on Sunday night the only inofmrative answer he gave was that he thought that the Arkle can sometimes be run too quickly. He also said that the Gold Cup is the long term aim.
Really wish I’d known this earlier! I wouldn’t be overly conifdent on backing PC even in the Jewson based on the events of the last two months.
That word was meant to be "informative"!!!!1
When DM was asked about the reason (why PC might be aimed at the Jewson rather than the Arkle) during his ‘question time’ on betfair on Sunday night the only inofmrative answer he gave was that he thought that the Arkle can sometimes be run too quickly. He also said that the Gold Cup is the long term aim.
Really wish I’d known this earlier! I wouldn’t be overly conifdent on backing PC even in the Jewson based on the events of the last two months.
Very good points indeed. I can’t pretend to know anywhere near as much as most on here so I’ll take your advice under consideration!!
Simply based on his lone performance over this c/d though I do like the chances of Balthazar King if he’s recovered from that crash last time.
I remember my first festival in ’09 watching this race and was amazed by it. So if I can’t win would like nothing more than seeing the old boy GC win it again.
Cracking race whatever the result, a real spectacle to watch.
I can’t see how Garde Champetre can win this, as long as the jockeys do some extra revision on which course to take entering the final stages!!
There’s no way GC would have been within 10 lenghts of the leaders last time out at Cheltenham. Backed Balthazar King that day and feel like there might be some unfinished business there so I’d go with him at the odds. He was staying on well under pressure and think he’s worth another go, although maybe Scotsirish could be a tough nut to crack.
Another with decent e/w value I think is A New Story. A bit long in the tooth but was placed in this race last year and will be 7lb better off with Sizing Australia.
Bring on day 1!!! Best day of the meeting for me.
The bumper isn’t normally a race I would pay too much attention to as it’s very hard to guage the form of many of the runners but was rather bored last night and decided to have a go…..
One horse imparticular struck me, Sir Johnson. Not necessarily the winner of the race, but certainly one which I believe to be the best value.
Has won four straight bumpers, the last of which was a listed contest at Aintree over 17f (and really asserted over the last furlong which would bode well for getting up the hill) in which he carried 7lbs more than Royal Guardsman and beat him quite well. The only article I can find on the horse is an interview done with his trainer after the race in which he said he’ll either be put away espcially for Cheltenham or he’d go hurdling straight away, and the former has obviously been decided upon.
Plus even if following top speed and RPR he isn’t too bad on TS of 75 and RPR of 126.
While I’d imagine Royal Guardman will have come on further than Sir Johnson, I can’t see a reason for the huge difference in prices.
I’m a novice when it comes to the bumper game so am I missing something and can anybody clue me in?
I would be interested to hear what people’s opinions are as to whether Somersby still goes for the Ryanair as I assume the plan was before the race or goes for the QM, as I see his odds for both shortened up dramatically after the race?
I saw Henrietta Knight said after the race that the Ryanair was still the target but does still have an entry for the QM
I think it would be a mistake to go for the QM, but I am talking somewhat through my pocket as I backed him at 20’s last week along with Realt Dubh for the Ryanair. Just believe that it was his stamina and jumping which got him ahead of Finians today rather than speed which is much more of a necessity in the QM.
If anyone has an opinion on which race he’ll be targeted on, rather than which one he has a better chance in, I’d be most interested.
Nostaw: Thanks, they are only offering 12s so I have left it for the moment, I feel that other firms will be more generous
They got back to me yesterday and offered 14’s but I’d sooner wait until they make a decision on what his likely target is.
Obviously he ran in the pertemps qualifier at Exeter earlier in the year which could be an option but he’s gone up 22lbs since that race so I’m not sure whether they’d consider that now as he’d likely be at the top of the weights.
Either way, not a bad horse to follow for place money at usually large odds.
I am waiting for the without Big Bucks market to take place as i have a horse who I am sure will be ridden for a place and could quite easily snatch 2nd and steal the coffers.
Hailing from the same yard as Bucks, Five Dreams is only a handicapper but they regularly place in this event and he has been ridden to finish 2nd last twice to Big Bucks and the place money in the Stayers is worth a lot more than the majority of handicaps!!
I actually contacted William Hill yesterday to ask for odds for Five Dream w/o BB as I can yet again see horses believing they can stay with Big Bucks emptying before the finish and Five Dream being able to at least get into a place.
They’ve told me the trading department should get back to me tomorrow so I will post their price if you like??
Sprinter Sacre was cruising as he turned for home in the Supreme Novices’. He was roughly 1/2L ahead of Cue Card at that point and managed to beat him by just 1 1/4L. Cue Card now has a reputation for finding nothing off the bridle, so rather baffled why everybody’s jumping on SS for the Arkle. Not to mention he has 5 1/2L to find on Al Ferof (by Dom Alco, whose progeny excel over fences).
He was impressive at the majority of fences I thought, although he put in a huge jump at one point, about a stride earlier than he needed to, and just about made it to the other side – he won’t be able to do that at Cheltenham.
Utterly baffled as to why there’s been so much hype around him today, crazy crazy crazy. The kind of horse that bookies love IMO.
Couldn’t agree with you more! SS was rather impressive at quite a few fences, giving them plenty of air but he would have to improve something extraordinary on his hurdling form to get close to Peddler’s.
I would fancy SS might get alongside Al Ferof and fight for second, but so far I can see nothing which would get close to PC. 6/1 is a quite ridiculous price after 1 run over fences for a horse which finished third in a good supreme.
I’d sooner have the 4/1 for the horse that finished second in a top-drawer champion.
