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Hard day yesterday, however Dream Composer and City of Troy turned the day around, what a masterclass ride by Ryan Moore, some might not like the way he rides but he is still a class jockey.
Today we see some superb racing taking place from Chantilly including the French Derby, so we have a look at starting point the Group 2 Prix du Gros-Chene and quite a few of these come into this after battling the Group 3 Prix de St-Georges at Longchamp.
PONNTOS came out on top that day with Mgheera, Lesslepasser and Vicious Harry all in behind. Ponntos has come into this without a Group penalty and has to be given the upmost respect, however he has failed at this level on four other occasions. Lesselpasser reversed his defeat from the Cor De Chasse Listed Stakes with Vicious Harry quite significantly to the level of seven lengths turnaround, that form should be sustained. At the weights you would feel that Ponntos could still be improving, Barzalona in the plate.
On to the Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly, despite only one British/Irish winner in the past decade it is hard to even have a look at any travellers winning this, however Karl Burke’s AL QAREEM Bombed out in the Group 2 Boodles Yorkshire Cup Stakes over two furlongs further and dropping back to the 12f index I feel he has a real chance of winning this under Clifford Lee.
On to the feature the Group 1 Qatar Prix du Jockey Club and it would the icing on the cake if Ryan Moore could ride a double derby in two days when he partner’s Diego Velazquez. A good look at the French 2000gns where the last mentioned finished fourth and Alcantor in third. Both deserve the respect now stepping up in trip, and do like ALCANTOR to come on again being sired by New Bay, Diego Velazquez gets the Frankel genes, but might just find this race a touch above his class.
The Group 3 Prix Greffulhe is a solid trial for this race and Sunway was just touched of to a neck and will be looking for compensation. He took the scalp of Alcantor in last years Group 1 Criterium International, but again the latter has shown more on seasonal reappearance. The horse they all have to beat is FAST TRACKER he could not be more impressive when landing the Listed De Suresnes Listed Stakes by seven lengths, an unexposed son of Churchill and deserves to be one of the principle players here.
Another race over the 12f trip here at Chantilly is the Group 3 Prix de Royaumont for fillies. Andre Fabre tends to have one ready for this and sadly this year nothing, so this would make me side with Nicolas Clements AMOR A MANI who took a step forward when landing the Prix Robert Lavallee Maiden Stakes, its not turning out to be a decent maiden, however the trainer has won this in the past.
CHANTILLY
13.40 : Ponntos (1.5pt Win @ 5/2)
14.20 : Al Qareem (1pt each way @ 7/1)
15.05 : FAST TRACKER (3pt win @ 7/2 NAP) / Alcantor (1pt each way @ 11/1 4 places)
15.50 : Amor A Mani (1pt each way @ 16/1)Wow, when you ask for a masterclass ride by Ryan Moore there it was, and how humble Aiden O’Brien is taking the wrap for putting him in the Guineas unprepared and for him to say its the best Derby horse his trained well there is no more to be said
13.25 : Blake
14.00 : Running Lion
14.35 : Regal Reality
15.10 : Mashadi
15.45 : Dream Composer
16.30 : City of Troy
17.15 : Ziggy
17.50 : Batal DubaiHave a great Derby
BLAKE – 13.25 Epsom
HIGHLAND SPRING – 16.00 Musselburgh (NAP)
CITY OF TROY – 16.30 Epsom (NB)The market around City of Troy currently is misleading, drifted out to 7/2 last night to be backed again over this early hours into 9/4, another negative is the dreaded stall 1 which has seen limited winners. I am going to have a look at the trends that are relevant more for this race.
Ancient Wisdom
Dallas Star
Los AngelesBased on the trends the winner should be coming from one of the three above…..
Ancient Wisdom finished off the season last year better than ever when landing the Autumn & Futurity Stakes, he had a few of these beaten in Deira Mile, Gods Window and Dancing Gemini. The Dante has seen only one winner in the past 10yrs which was Golden Horn with the only other runner being Desert Crown who bypassed the Derby, so in theory the stats is 1-1.
Sadly with the loss of Hidden Law who won the Chester vase this years Derby does not have a lot of depth on the ability that are coming form solid trends, the Lingfield trials Anthony Van Dyck went on to Derby glory and i am seriously surprised that Illinois has not taken his chances here after finishing behind Ambiently Friendly at Lingfied, Adayar who won the 2023 renewal of the trial also bypassed the Derby so once more 1-1 from the stats.
After watching yesterday the ground looked tacky and the rain has likely got into the ground, no electric times here so we have to bet based on trust that some of the main entries are going to handle the conditions and one horse we know can do that is CITY OF TROY.
All the pundits are swerving the hotpot here purely based on running in a straight mile that was ridden at a blistering pace, he ran over a mile, he flopped in the Guinea. Yeah solid three negatives and the way Ylang Ylang ran in the Oaks even Ryan Moore said she will get better as the season goes on, is the same that we are expecting, an 80% fit City of Troy.
Ambiently Friendly and Ancient Wisdom are strong adversaries to the favourite, Godolphin have to be respected and if the value is in this race it has to be ANCIENT WISDOM, the fact that they have not run scared and entered him is another positive, only thing putting me off with Ambiently Friendly is that the winners of the trial in Anthony Van Dyck and Desert Crown were both black type winners prior where he would have to improve a lot to land this on paper being only a Listed winner, however we have seen a maiden winner in Serpentine over the past decade, and who else but Aiden O’Brien can accomplish that.
My prediction is that both Ambiently Friendly and Ancient Wisdom will try and take the sting out of the race and kick on early into the bend for home, try and see if CITY OF TROY can get the trip in the ground, I think he will come home strongly and being by triple crown winner Justify I would like to think this is going to be a masterclass ride by Ryan Moore.
CITY OF TROY : 2pt win @ 11/4
I am so glad i just observed this afternoon watching form the comforts of home. I am not surprised at all that Ylang Ylang failed miserably in the Oaks, Dance Sequence has improved again though and thought maybe she was going to get home, wandered around considerably over that last half a furlong.
The race goes to Ireland, but not the stable that was suspected, nice though to see Aga Khan once more tasting classic glory in his colours. So on to Derby day, probably once more a cautious one.
The quick turnaround for Peter Chapple-Hyam’s BLAKE I think he will have to much in the locker for what looks a really weak handicap. The step up to 10f should be beneficial with this unexposed three year old.
RUNNING LION drops back to 8.5f, she looked in need of the full 10f when landing the Pretty Polly as a three year old, the Dahlia Stakes run when not getting home over the 9f, this was on a straight track, could be better going left handed I think, is a player just the drop in trip a concern.
Royal Dress put in a shock performance when landing the Listed William Hill Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes and had Breege a length back in third off level weights. They will meet off the same terms and this time around I would like to think them tables can be reversed. George Boughey’s Chic Colombine drops back in class after bombing out in the French 1000gnS.
Sir Michael Stoute’s REGAL REALITY is surely even at the age of nine capable enough of landing this, last year’s winner beat Highland Avenue to three parts of a length, he will get 3lb this time around and should hold that form. Next is the three year old dash.
I am going to side with MASHADI in this for Amo Racing, beaten a neck last time over 6f at Ascot,not overly convinced that David Egan is the right pilot so it be an each way bet for small stakes. On to the Epsom Dash, portrayed as the fastest sprint in the world. A race i tend to overlook are horses coming into this on a penalty which would rule out Clarendon House.
With Karl Burke’s sprinters in superb form it would criminal to not see SILKIE WILKIE going close at the business end this afternoon. Second one in the race i like is DREAM COMPOSER who should get plenty of cover from stall 7 and be in the mix also.
The market around City of Troy currently is misleading, drifted out to 7/2 last night to be backed again over this early hours into 9/4, another negative is the dreaded stall 1 which has seen limited winners. I am going to have a look at the trends that are relevant more for this race.
Ancient Wisdom
Dallas Star
Los AngelesBased on the trends the winner should be coming from one of the three above…..
Ancient Wisdom finished off the season last year better than ever when landing the Autumn & Futurity Stakes, he had a few of these beaten in Deira Mile, Gods Window and Dancing Gemini. The Dante has seen only one winner in the past 10yrs which was Golden Horn with the only other runner being Desert Crown who bypassed the Derby, so in theory the stats is 1-1.
Sadly with the loss of Hidden Law who won the Chester vase this years Derby does not have a lot of depth on the ability that are coming form solid trends, the Lingfield trials Anthony Van Dyck went on to Derby glory and i am seriously surprised that Illinois has not taken his chances here after finishing behind Ambiently Friendly at Lingfied, Adayar who won the 2023 renewal of the trial also bypassed the Derby so once more 1-1 from the stats.
After watching yesterday the ground looked tacky and the rain has likely got into the ground, no electric times here so we have to bet based on trust that some of the main entries are going to handle the conditions and one horse we know can do that is CITY OF TROY.
All the pundits are swerving the hotpot here purely based on running in a straight mile that was ridden at a blistering pace, he ran over a mile, he flopped in the Guinea. Yeah solid three negatives and the way Ylang Ylang ran in the Oaks even Ryan Moore said she will get better as the season goes on, is the same that we are expecting, an 80% fit City of Troy.
Ambiently Friendly and Ancient Wisdom are strong adversaries to the favourite, Godolphin have to be respected and if the value is in this race it has to be ANCIENT WISDOM, the fact that they have not run scared and entered him is another positive, only thing putting me off with Ambiently Friendly is that the winners of the trial in Anthony Van Dyck and Desert Crown were both black type winners prior where he would have to improve a lot to land this on paper being only a Listed winner, however we have seen a maiden winner in Serpentine over the past decade, and who else but Aiden O’Brien can accomplish that.
My prediction is that both Ambiently Friendly and Ancient Wisdom will try and take the sting out of the race and kick on early into the bend for home, try and see if CITY OF TROY can get the trip in the ground, I think he will come home strongly and being by triple crown winner Justify I would like to think this is going to be a masterclass ride by Ryan Moore.
CITY OF TROY : 2pt win @ 11/4
Disappointing on Minoushka, big prices there , what a run by Brian Meehan’s Kathmundu i actually backed her when looking all over the winner to land the Nell Gwyn Stakes at 40/1 , but jinked in the closing stages to finish third, just denied here to a head, Sean Levey a jockey that gives 110% on every ride.
Congrats
on Stilvi on giving the winnerHow would we assess that – big prices for both Guineas this afternoon, Metropolitan has reversed the form with a few of these that beat him in the Prix de Fontainebleau – Super run by Roger Teals Dancing Gemini and will definitely by penciling in Diego Velazquez in for somewhere this season. Henry Longfellow surely will go up in trip along with his stablemate. Always hard to assess the French Guineas,
Where next for the O’Brien horses, Henry Longfellow could be expected to turn up in the Irish 2000gns, on to Ascot maybe and the St James’s Palace – is he a Derby horse – would they dare go the Dante with Diego or bypass and go straight to the Derby with him and has been clipped into 12s, where Henry Longfellow looks to bypass the Derby drifting out to 25/1.
Would any of you that have backed City of Troy have concerns after seeing the trials this afternoon, some real disappointments in there, I could not of backed illinois regardless or the winner, Defiance though did not run any kind of race, just did not pick up on the quick ground. It makes me want to have a few pennies more on City of Troy as I do not feel he has anything to fear at this present time.
16.15 Naas
Think FLIGHT OF FANCY can take this weak Group 3, her Leopardstown maiden run is best on paper, be interesting to see how the runner up Rubies are Red runs in the Oaks trial today.
Mr Freedom
Just looks a race that has been set up for this, runner up in the Sussex Champion Hurdle behind Our Champ – had Rare Middleton, Taply and Teddy Blue well beate.
18/1 each way – William Hill
Lingfield 15.00 – Defiance (Nap)
Lingfield 16.10 – Madame De Sevigne
Naas 16.15 – Flight to Fancy (BN)RES : Haydock 15.50 – Shartash
MINOUSHKA for me in this – her late burst in the trial which saw her just denied by Candala who misses this renewal, Sparkling Plenty & Rose Bloom back in the trial respectively. Louise Proctor beat Vertbois in the Belvedere Stakes on the all weather and we could not overlook the Godolphin entry here Romantic Style who beat Ramateulle in the Prix Imprudence and that form was boosted after she was just denied in the 1000gns at Newmarket with Tamfana back in fourth.
Good Morning
Hope you are all well.
french Guineas always a tough race to analyse and I cant concur more that the ground publications tend to be a bit far fetched and I would think the ground will be quicker than they are currently advertising.
The barrier tends to be a good pointer, coming too wide or to late over 1600m around Longchamp your going to hope that your entry is able to reach trios further than a mile in time. Irish trainer Aiden O’Brien has crashed the party on a few occasions and we all know how good Ryan Moore tends to be on the continent. Henry Longfellow is looking to keep in unbeaten record intact and its again the trust that his juvenile form is still solid on the transition. Considering his very versatile on most any ground he would have to be the one on paper to progress this year even further and with paper entries in both Irish and UK Derby’s and possibly the Coral Eclipse they are expecting he is going to get further than the mile, should do being by Dubawi.
Christian Demuro and Jean Claude Rouget teamed up a few years ago to win back to back running’s of this and once more team up with Keran. His an unknown quality over this trip stepping up to 1600m for the first time and looking over his entries this season it is strongly showing his staying around the mile. Beauvatier and Ramadan net in the Prix de fontainebleau with the latter coming out on top with Metropolitan back in fifth.
Supercooled overturned Roshvar when they met in the Machedo Stakes, this came in very soft conditions, John Goden’s Eben Shaddad Wwould have something to find on his Craven Stakes run, the winner Haatem ran a creditable third in the 2000gns at Newmarket. Interesting that Diego Velazquez takes his chances here, questions is this a prep ruin towards the Dante or bypass that to the Irish 2000gns onto the Coral Eclipse, he does bring good form to the table after beating Capulet as a juvenile, form franked this week with the runner up winning the Dee Stakes. Could possible put a line through his run in the Futurity Stakes on heavy ground, but that form took a dent with Gods Window running below par in the Dee Stakes.
With 6/4 on offer for Henry Longfellow which on paper looks his race to lose, DIEGO VALEZQUEZ is value at 14/1 and could be the each way angle now coming back on quicker ground, negative is his draw from stall 11.
Derby and Oak trials this weekend at Lingfield, John Gosden’s filly Danielle is on show here, she has an entry at Epsom. She won by twelve lengths on turf debut at Wetherby and the daughter of Cracksman personally for me she will have to step up in my opinion if she is going to impress in this trial. Her mother failed when stepped up in trip on the all weather, but was a 12f winner on turf on quick ground.
If we are going to take her on Rubies are Red brings the sire Galileo to the flaw – the mare Red Evie never ran beyond a mile as a three year old, however only lost once in that time, won the Lockinge and Hungerford Stakes as a four year old, so stamina and speed is there is adapting to the all weather.
The fact that DANIELLE is coming the route of the Wetherby Novices Stakes race which has produced two of the past three winners of this race is probably significant enough. Next we have the Derby trial, a race that will not usually turn up the Derby winner come June, only one i can remember was Anthony Van Dyke. Aidan O’Brien has landed this on six occasions with twice in the past five years which included a Derby winner.
This time around Illinois steps up and the son of Galileo needs to show more I think after some disappointing runs, its a typical story that most Ballydoyle transition horses the form goes on their juvenile career, he managed to finished placed in the Criterium in France, but was beaten by stablemate Euphrates in the Ballysax.
Both of the O’Brien horses was not that electric, but now on quicker ground we might see both perform differently. I am a big fan of Roger Varian and it was great to see him pick up a classic last weekend and hopefully the form improves with DEFINACE. Son of the almost triple crown sire Camelot who was just defied in the St Leger, has all the credentials to lead into his fathers footsteps.
Was given a fair amount to do by James Doyle that day, however he has an engine and has already shown his ability at Epsom so will not find issues coming back in June. His definitely my main bet of the day.
on Stilvi on giving the winner